It has been a bit of a roller coast ride for MSU football
fans over the past 3 years. After three
seasons (2013-2015) of success unprecedented by any Big Ten team from the State
of Michigan since the 50s and 60s, MSU fans were brought back down to earth by
the sobering 3-9 season of 2016. Then, MSU rebounded in 2017 with a surprising
(at least to the National media) 10-3 season.
But, for a variety of reasons, MSU disappointed yet again in 2018 with
an under-whelming 7-6 record.
As for MSU, the Spartans opened as an 11-point favorite, based on the source that I use. That was pretty much dead-on the line of 10.9 that my spreadsheet predicted. That translates to a 78% chance that MSU survives this week’s Exorcism without a scratch. Since it opened, the spread now seems to be up around 14 points, which is a pretty big move. The data would suggest that MSU has a slightly better chance to avoid an upset (84%) based on the updated line.
As the Big Ten starts to wind down the non-conference season, it is a little hard to get too excited about the schedule in Week 3. One could make the argument that the MSU game is the highlight of the week. But, that title likely goes to Iowa (+1) and their intrastate battle with Iowa State, who also tends to dress in uniforms that are a bit devilish, no? Iowa actually opened as the underdog (and it has move to Iowa's side since), but my spreadsheet likes the Hawkeyes, and that was before I told it how much the Cyclones struggled with Northern Iowa. Also, Iowa State, you really need to get out more. It is OK to play teams from other states sometimes, guys.
Elsewhere, Purdue (-2.5) opened as a slim favorite over TCU. Really? As I type this I see the line had move to TCU, which is in agreement with my math as well. Similarly, Maryland (-5.5) opened as a surprisingly slim favorite over Temple. In this case, the line has already move to over 7, which again is in line with my projection. The only other Big Ten line under 10 is Eastern Michigan at Illinois (-7.5), but no one will likely watch that game anyway.
The remaining Big 10 non-conference games all have lines over 15, so the odds of an upset are limited. But looking at the line up: Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-15), Georgia Southern at Minnesota (-15.5), Pitt at Penn State (-16.5) and UNLV at Northwestern (-20), it is not hard to imagine one of those teams choking, now is it?
That leaves the only conference game of the week: Ohio State at Indiana (+13.5). Considering how dominant the Buckeyes looked last week, this line looks a bit low to me, but I suppose it is still a conference road game in the State of Indiana for OSU. When has that even been a problem?
Ironically, the two teams that intrigue me the most are the two teams with byes that also happen to game a game with each other next week: Wisconsin and Michigan. The Badgers have won two games by a combined score of 110-0. I would imagine that they are feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor, they are desperately trying to convince themselves that EVERYTHING IS JUST FINE after a lackluster performance in Week 1 and a near disaster in Week 2. I find it very amusing that they have to sit on that turd of a performance for a full 2 weeks. Michigan is basically the toddler who just loaded their diaper in the first five minutes of a long road trip on a hot summer day. Bad news, baby, this car ain't stoppin' until you get to Madison!
SEC
It also looks like a pretty quiet week down south as five teams (LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and A&M) are playing FCS teams, Arkansas, Auburn, and Georgia are facing lower-tier FBS teams (Colorado State (+10), Kent State (+35), and Arkansas State (+33.5), respectively), and Vandy is just going to take the week off. At least Tennessee has a good chance of picking up win #1 this week.
That leaves just three other games of some consequence. Kansas State is traveling to Mississippi State (-7) is the only non-conference game in this bunch and that game is likely to be tight. The remaining two contests are two intriguing conference home-dog match-ups. First, Florida (-8) travel to Kentucky is the first real SEC East battle of the year. Right now, Florida looks to be the only real competition for Georgia in the East and they can't afford to take an "L" this early, especially since their schedule is on the difficult side to begin with.
The other contest is an oddly similar set-up in the West where Alabama (-25.5) must travel to South Carolina, the first of Bama's all rather challenging conference road games. Similar to Florida, Alabama cannot really afford to drop a winnable road game this early or a team like LSU might just be good enough to win the division. While Vegas is pretty confident and set the line at 25.5, both my algorithm and the FPI in particular think that the Gamecocks will cover. In general, both Florida and Alabama need to beware of the home-dog this weekend. You never know, sometimes they can turn into Cujo.
ACC / Notre Dame
While the action in the Big Ten and SEC is a bit more mild, the ACC could provide some more entertainment this week. While about half of the contests involve FCS teams or games with big spreads (such as New Mexico at Notre Dame (-37), Clemson (-26) at Syracuse, and Kansas at Boston College (-18.5)), I could a total of five games with spreads that opened below 8 points.
None are likely to be that consequential (because, Clemson) but a few do stand out. Virginia is looking like a real contender in the Coastal Division. This week's test is a home game against Florida Sate (+8) and I expect UVA to cover this one easily. The only other undefeated team in the Coastal Division is North Carolina, and they hope to stay that way in this week's very odd non-conference game at Wake Forest (-3.5). The Demon Deacons as a 3.5-point favorite but both my model and the FPI see a win for the Tar Heals. I tell ya, it is not looking like a good week for demonic forces.
Along those lines, not even the Duke Blue Devils may be safe. They scheduled a road game against Middle Tennessee State (+7) but my algorithm likes the Blue Raiders. Maybe my computer is just taking this week's theme a bit too far... The only other notable game is NC State (-5.5) at West Virginia. The Wolf Pack are starting to look like the biggest division challenger for Clemson. Sure, I guess somebody needs to finish 2nd...
Big 12
I have spent the previous two weeks playing devil's advocate when it comes to the Big 12's non-conference schedule. But, this week it seems that the Big 12 has finally decided to get down to business. At the top of the Big 12 food chain, Oklahoma does have to travel out west to face UCLA (+19.5). While my spreadsheet does not see this as a problem, the FPI likes the Bruins to cover here. I seriously have no idea why. Meanwhile, Texas (-29.5) looks to be having Rice for dinner on Saturday night.
As I run down the remaining games on the schedule, many of them I have already mentioned such as Iowa at Iowa State (-1), Kansas (+18.5) at BC, K State (+7) at Mississippi State, TCU (+2.5) at Purdue, and NC State at West Virginia (+5.5). Wow, that could go very badly for those guys. Maybe sticking the FCS and Sunbelt was a better idea after all?
The Big 12 might have more luck with Texas Tech (-2) at Arizona... or not. Finally, from the MSU point of view, the most interesting game to keep an eye on might just be Oklahoma State (+13) at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane did cover last weekend and if nothing else a strong showing, especially on the defensive side, would be a nice thing to see.
Pac 12
Out West this week there is no one game that really jumps out at you, but there are a lot of interesting plot lines. It could wind up being a real Week from Hell for the conference. The only team that is expected to win big is Washington (-20.5) as they play host to Hawaii. That sound pretty safe until you realize that Hawaii is already 2-0 against Pac 12 teams and Washington choked last week against Cal. Speaking of Cal, the Bears (-14) are pretty big favorites as well vs. North Texas, but they are still Cal...
That's the good news. The bad news is that no Pac 12 teams is favored by more than a TD in any of the other games. Wazzou (-6) is a narrow favorite over Houston, as is USC (-4.5) at BYU, and Colorado (-3.5) over Air Force. But, the math says that there is only a 25% chance that the Pac 12 avoids an upset in those three contests.
The news gets worse from there. Arizona (+2) is an underdog at home vs. Texas Tech, while Stanford (+6) is an underdog on the road at UCF. But, at least they have betters odds than Arizona State (+11 at MSU) and UCLA (+19.5 vs. Oklahoma). The Pac 12 is only 14-6 so far in the non-conference and it doesn't look like that number is going to improve much this week at all.
Group of Five
Despite the fact that we are only two weeks into the season, the battle for the top Group of Five team has already taken a few twists and turns. In Week 1, Boise State and Cincinnati both had big wins over Florida State and UCLA, respectively. Then, in Week 2, Boise State struggled a bit to beat Marshall, while Cinci got blanked by Ohio State. Almost worse was the fact that Florida State then almost lost to UL-Monroe while UCLA got beat at home by San Diego State. So, maybe those wins weren't so great after all.
So, that really just leads us back to UCF as the team with the best chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. The Golden Knights have yet to really be tested this year, but they are a 6-point favorite as hosts to Stanford this week. A win there would vault them to the clear poll position in the NY6 race. If nothing else that is kind of boring and I find myself rooting for pretty much any other outcome (no offense, UCF.)
Honestly, none of the rest of the likely NY6 candidates have a stiff challenge this week. I am interested to see if Cincinnati (-15) can bounce back strong against Miami (OH) and of course I am curious to see how Western Michigan (-11.5) looks against Georgia State. Other than that, Ohio travels to Marshall (-4) in what should be a fun, but ultimately irrelevant mid-major skirmish.
That brings me to the end of the lesson. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Sun Devils!
At times during the 2016 and 2018 seasons, MSU seemed a bit
cursed, like some demonic figure was hovering over the program, sowing division
in the locker room and crippling the joints and muscles of the skill players
and linemen. It was almost enough to make fans projectile vomit or have their
heads spin all the way around. MSU seemed bedeviled.
Last year, MSU’s ill-fated trip to the desert to face the
Sun Devils in mid-September was essentially a microcosm of all that went wrong
for MSU in 2018: a few players got hurt, MSU led most of the game, yet failed
to cash in on scoring opportunities, the defense gave an isolated play here
and there, and at the end, MSU let the game slip away. Bedeviled. Well, a new season has dawned and this time the Devils are coming up to East Lansing.
Folks, I think that it is time for an Exorcism.
After a bit of a rocky start on offense in Week 1, MSU’s
offense can to life in a huge way last week.
They played like men who were possessed (in the good way) and put up
numbers that aren’t just good enough to be a Top 50 offense or even a Top 25
offense. MSU’s numbers last week (on a
yard / attempt basis) were those of a Top 5 offense, if the Spartans could
sustain at that level for the rest of the season. Is the Demon already gone?
Well, sometimes the Devil like to play tricks on you. Sometimes, you get lulled into a false sense
of security. Sure, MSU put up big numbers on a MAC team, even if they may be
the most talented team in the MAC this year, but the Spartans need to show that
they can be productive against a Power Five level talent as well.
The Sun Devils come in with a reputation as a team with a
good defense and a limited offense but with just enough talent to make a handful of
plays. That was enough to beat the Spartans last year, and this year, it should
provide MSU with the perfect test. It will be like pressing a crucifix on MSU’s
forehead while simultaneously shot-gunning a can of holy water. If MSU,
especially on offense, is truly healed, this should be no problem. If not,
there is a chance MSU gets burned.
Fortunately, MSU's current high priest is also the chief Exorcist. He is a man who already exorcised the decades old concept of the "Same Old Spartans." He is a coach who
has shown time and time again that he can take a roster of “3-star talent” and
turn them into champions. He knows that the Devil in the details and he
teaches the fundamentals of blocking, tackling, and toughness.
Knowing this, I think MSU is going to be just fine this weekend. I think they will send those Sun Devils right back to whatever Hell they came from with
their forked tails between their legs.
And, by the close of the day, MSU’s chief Exorcist will also happen to
be MSU’s winning-est coach of all time.
(It also occurred to me that the film the Exorcist doesn't actually end well for the priests in question... but just go with it...)
(It also occurred to me that the film the Exorcist doesn't actually end well for the priests in question... but just go with it...)
National Overview
As usual, I now present the summary of my spreadsheet’s
predictions as a function of the opening spread.
In addition, here is the same plot using the FPI’s
predictions.
As for MSU, the Spartans opened as an 11-point favorite, based on the source that I use. That was pretty much dead-on the line of 10.9 that my spreadsheet predicted. That translates to a 78% chance that MSU survives this week’s Exorcism without a scratch. Since it opened, the spread now seems to be up around 14 points, which is a pretty big move. The data would suggest that MSU has a slightly better chance to avoid an upset (84%) based on the updated line.
As for the over-under, I see that it opened around 47.5,
which does seem a bit high. I use a very
simple calculation to estimate the over-under, and I get a value of 41.5. Interestingly, the current over-under seems
to have dropped to 42, so that all checks out for me. If I use all this information to predict a
final score, my model suggest MSU wins 26-15, but that seems a bit hard to do
in practice, so I will go with 27-14.
Based on the data from my algorithm, there is not clear bet
to make. However, the FPI is more bullish on MSU’s chances than my model
is. The FPI prediction is in the range
where my analytics suggest a smart bet is to take MSU to cover. As always,
proceed with caution.
As for other notable observations from the charts above, my algorithm has 6 total games that fall into my "recommended bet" category. The FPI has an additional 5 games (including MSU) and none of the games overlap. Those contests are summarized in the table below.
Interestingly, the two models combined suggest that it is wise to bet against Clemson, Alabama, and Oklahoma to cover this week. I am not sure that I would be so confident about those bets, but I guess we will find out. The best bet on the list to me looks like taking Maryland (-5.5) to cover against Temple. Based on the performance of the Terps so far, I would expect a double-digit win here.
I am also curious that my model not only thinks Middle Tennessee State is going to cover against Duke, it actually picks the Blue Raiders to win in upset fashion. I wonder if perhaps this is just a side-effect to Michigan looking so weak in the first two weeks and thus artificially inflating the power ranking of their opponents. It certainly will be interesting to track this result as well.
Speaking of upsets, in addition to MTSU over Duke, my model this week has three more as does the FPI, but 2 of the upsets are shared by both models: Iowa over Iowa Sate and UNC over Wake. As for the state of Iowa, I think that line has already moved to the side of the Hawkeyes. As for UNC, I still can't figure out why Wake was favored in the first place. For reference, the specific upset picks are summarized below.
Finally, my Monte Carlo simulation of the weeks games predicts that we will see 10.9 ± 2.8 upsets this week, which is more than what was projected for either Week 1 or 2. There are quite a few games with tight spreads, so while there are not that many true marquee games, there should be a lot of close ones.
Now, let's take a quick spin around the country to see what action is on tap for this weekend in detail.
Big Ten
As the Big Ten starts to wind down the non-conference season, it is a little hard to get too excited about the schedule in Week 3. One could make the argument that the MSU game is the highlight of the week. But, that title likely goes to Iowa (+1) and their intrastate battle with Iowa State, who also tends to dress in uniforms that are a bit devilish, no? Iowa actually opened as the underdog (and it has move to Iowa's side since), but my spreadsheet likes the Hawkeyes, and that was before I told it how much the Cyclones struggled with Northern Iowa. Also, Iowa State, you really need to get out more. It is OK to play teams from other states sometimes, guys.
Elsewhere, Purdue (-2.5) opened as a slim favorite over TCU. Really? As I type this I see the line had move to TCU, which is in agreement with my math as well. Similarly, Maryland (-5.5) opened as a surprisingly slim favorite over Temple. In this case, the line has already move to over 7, which again is in line with my projection. The only other Big Ten line under 10 is Eastern Michigan at Illinois (-7.5), but no one will likely watch that game anyway.
The remaining Big 10 non-conference games all have lines over 15, so the odds of an upset are limited. But looking at the line up: Northern Illinois at Nebraska (-15), Georgia Southern at Minnesota (-15.5), Pitt at Penn State (-16.5) and UNLV at Northwestern (-20), it is not hard to imagine one of those teams choking, now is it?
That leaves the only conference game of the week: Ohio State at Indiana (+13.5). Considering how dominant the Buckeyes looked last week, this line looks a bit low to me, but I suppose it is still a conference road game in the State of Indiana for OSU. When has that even been a problem?
Ironically, the two teams that intrigue me the most are the two teams with byes that also happen to game a game with each other next week: Wisconsin and Michigan. The Badgers have won two games by a combined score of 110-0. I would imagine that they are feeling pretty good about themselves right now.
Meanwhile, in Ann Arbor, they are desperately trying to convince themselves that EVERYTHING IS JUST FINE after a lackluster performance in Week 1 and a near disaster in Week 2. I find it very amusing that they have to sit on that turd of a performance for a full 2 weeks. Michigan is basically the toddler who just loaded their diaper in the first five minutes of a long road trip on a hot summer day. Bad news, baby, this car ain't stoppin' until you get to Madison!
SEC
It also looks like a pretty quiet week down south as five teams (LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and A&M) are playing FCS teams, Arkansas, Auburn, and Georgia are facing lower-tier FBS teams (Colorado State (+10), Kent State (+35), and Arkansas State (+33.5), respectively), and Vandy is just going to take the week off. At least Tennessee has a good chance of picking up win #1 this week.
That leaves just three other games of some consequence. Kansas State is traveling to Mississippi State (-7) is the only non-conference game in this bunch and that game is likely to be tight. The remaining two contests are two intriguing conference home-dog match-ups. First, Florida (-8) travel to Kentucky is the first real SEC East battle of the year. Right now, Florida looks to be the only real competition for Georgia in the East and they can't afford to take an "L" this early, especially since their schedule is on the difficult side to begin with.
The other contest is an oddly similar set-up in the West where Alabama (-25.5) must travel to South Carolina, the first of Bama's all rather challenging conference road games. Similar to Florida, Alabama cannot really afford to drop a winnable road game this early or a team like LSU might just be good enough to win the division. While Vegas is pretty confident and set the line at 25.5, both my algorithm and the FPI in particular think that the Gamecocks will cover. In general, both Florida and Alabama need to beware of the home-dog this weekend. You never know, sometimes they can turn into Cujo.
ACC / Notre Dame
While the action in the Big Ten and SEC is a bit more mild, the ACC could provide some more entertainment this week. While about half of the contests involve FCS teams or games with big spreads (such as New Mexico at Notre Dame (-37), Clemson (-26) at Syracuse, and Kansas at Boston College (-18.5)), I could a total of five games with spreads that opened below 8 points.
None are likely to be that consequential (because, Clemson) but a few do stand out. Virginia is looking like a real contender in the Coastal Division. This week's test is a home game against Florida Sate (+8) and I expect UVA to cover this one easily. The only other undefeated team in the Coastal Division is North Carolina, and they hope to stay that way in this week's very odd non-conference game at Wake Forest (-3.5). The Demon Deacons as a 3.5-point favorite but both my model and the FPI see a win for the Tar Heals. I tell ya, it is not looking like a good week for demonic forces.
Along those lines, not even the Duke Blue Devils may be safe. They scheduled a road game against Middle Tennessee State (+7) but my algorithm likes the Blue Raiders. Maybe my computer is just taking this week's theme a bit too far... The only other notable game is NC State (-5.5) at West Virginia. The Wolf Pack are starting to look like the biggest division challenger for Clemson. Sure, I guess somebody needs to finish 2nd...
Big 12
I have spent the previous two weeks playing devil's advocate when it comes to the Big 12's non-conference schedule. But, this week it seems that the Big 12 has finally decided to get down to business. At the top of the Big 12 food chain, Oklahoma does have to travel out west to face UCLA (+19.5). While my spreadsheet does not see this as a problem, the FPI likes the Bruins to cover here. I seriously have no idea why. Meanwhile, Texas (-29.5) looks to be having Rice for dinner on Saturday night.
As I run down the remaining games on the schedule, many of them I have already mentioned such as Iowa at Iowa State (-1), Kansas (+18.5) at BC, K State (+7) at Mississippi State, TCU (+2.5) at Purdue, and NC State at West Virginia (+5.5). Wow, that could go very badly for those guys. Maybe sticking the FCS and Sunbelt was a better idea after all?
The Big 12 might have more luck with Texas Tech (-2) at Arizona... or not. Finally, from the MSU point of view, the most interesting game to keep an eye on might just be Oklahoma State (+13) at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane did cover last weekend and if nothing else a strong showing, especially on the defensive side, would be a nice thing to see.
Pac 12
Out West this week there is no one game that really jumps out at you, but there are a lot of interesting plot lines. It could wind up being a real Week from Hell for the conference. The only team that is expected to win big is Washington (-20.5) as they play host to Hawaii. That sound pretty safe until you realize that Hawaii is already 2-0 against Pac 12 teams and Washington choked last week against Cal. Speaking of Cal, the Bears (-14) are pretty big favorites as well vs. North Texas, but they are still Cal...
That's the good news. The bad news is that no Pac 12 teams is favored by more than a TD in any of the other games. Wazzou (-6) is a narrow favorite over Houston, as is USC (-4.5) at BYU, and Colorado (-3.5) over Air Force. But, the math says that there is only a 25% chance that the Pac 12 avoids an upset in those three contests.
The news gets worse from there. Arizona (+2) is an underdog at home vs. Texas Tech, while Stanford (+6) is an underdog on the road at UCF. But, at least they have betters odds than Arizona State (+11 at MSU) and UCLA (+19.5 vs. Oklahoma). The Pac 12 is only 14-6 so far in the non-conference and it doesn't look like that number is going to improve much this week at all.
Group of Five
Despite the fact that we are only two weeks into the season, the battle for the top Group of Five team has already taken a few twists and turns. In Week 1, Boise State and Cincinnati both had big wins over Florida State and UCLA, respectively. Then, in Week 2, Boise State struggled a bit to beat Marshall, while Cinci got blanked by Ohio State. Almost worse was the fact that Florida State then almost lost to UL-Monroe while UCLA got beat at home by San Diego State. So, maybe those wins weren't so great after all.
So, that really just leads us back to UCF as the team with the best chance to play in the Cotton Bowl. The Golden Knights have yet to really be tested this year, but they are a 6-point favorite as hosts to Stanford this week. A win there would vault them to the clear poll position in the NY6 race. If nothing else that is kind of boring and I find myself rooting for pretty much any other outcome (no offense, UCF.)
Honestly, none of the rest of the likely NY6 candidates have a stiff challenge this week. I am interested to see if Cincinnati (-15) can bounce back strong against Miami (OH) and of course I am curious to see how Western Michigan (-11.5) looks against Georgia State. Other than that, Ohio travels to Marshall (-4) in what should be a fun, but ultimately irrelevant mid-major skirmish.
That brings me to the end of the lesson. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Sun Devils!
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