In Week 1, MSU was error prone, sloppy, and largely ineffective on offense, yet still found a way to win the game. Despite the win, some fans were spittin' mad, other fans felt a sense of dread and horror, and still others suggested that Father Time had past by Coach Dantonio and his staff.
(whoosh)
In Week 2, MSU suddenly caught fire on offense. Everything clinked. MSU rolled. Some wondered if the offense even looked better than the defense. MSU fans started to ponder another run to Indianapolis and beyond...
(whoosh)
In Week 3, MSU was again sloppy and error prone. Watching the game was like torture, and as the candle of time finally burned out, MSU found themselves behind on the scoreboard and with a loss on their ledger. Coach Dantonio was once again called into question. The week soon turned into the Spanish Inquisition. But, all was not lost...
(whoosh)
In Week 4, MSU started fast, but soon descended in the pit of mistakes and misdeeds. Spartan fans had that all-too familiar feeling of a pit of our collective stomachs. Then suddenly, MSU was rescued by the heroic act of an interception by Josiah Scott. The game turned, and MSU stormed to victory.
So, that leaves us in Week 5. The Indiana Hoosiers are coming to town which can only mean that the Old Brass Spittoon is once again up for grabs. For MSU, this is the latest chance to show they are both an improved but also a consistent team, especially on offense. MSU needs to stop the pendulum from once again swinging to its opposite extreme.
That is the ultimate question for the week: will MSU be sharp as a razor-sharp scythe or will MSU hock up a loogie onto their collective shoes? The Vegas lines opened at -15.5 for MSU based on my source, but it seems to have settled in at -14 almost immediately. That corresponds to a 84% chance that MSU escapes unscathed and with their favorite spittin' bucket still in the trophy case. My algorithm is slightly more optimistic, but only by a point or two (-16.7). Overall, the math suggests MSU wins something like 31-14.
On balance, despite my fondness for the horror genre so far this year, I feel pretty good about this one. Last week felt like MSU finally started to gel and they look ready to turn the page. The added subtle pressure of Coach D breaking the MSU record is also now in the rear-view mirror and I think that will help the overall team psyche. It is homecoming and I think that this is a game MSU should and will win, hopefully easily. If for some reason they don't, well, that will be a real spit in the eye.
National Overview
As usual, here is my weekly preview chart showing my spreadsheet's picks for the week relative to the Vegas lines.
For reference, here are ESPN's FPI picks for the week
If you think that there are a lot of games crammed down into the lower left corner of both plot, you would be correct. A full 49% of the games this week (25/51) have a spread that opened at 7 points or lower. This has all the hallmarks of an exciting weekend.
Fortunately, MSU is not one of those teams with a tight spread. As mentioned above, the line is right around -14, and both my algorithm and the FPI come to almost exactly the same conclusion. My data suggests MSU will barely cover, so I will go with that, but again, the signal is no where strong enough to issue a recommendation. As for the over/under, my data suggests it should be 46 or 47, while Vegas has it around 44 or 45. I would not get within spitting distance of that one.
As for bets that might be more appealing, here are my recommended bets for Week 5
In total, the two systems like 7 upsets total, and 3 of those picks are shared by both systems. My math suggests an additional 3 upsets, while the FPI like 1 more. The upset picks this week are almost all from the Group of Five, with the exception of my pick of Georgia Tech over Temple. But, the mere fact the Temple is favored in the first place is perhaps the bigger story there.
Finally, we weekly simulation suggests that we will see 12.8 ± 2.9 upsets in Week 5. Once again, that is the new record high number of upsets predicted in a single week so far this year.
With that, let's now take a spin around the country to see what's happening in each conference
Big Ten
Considering that the majority of the games on the national schedule this week are expected to be close, the Big Ten looks to be a bit of a yawner, as 5 of the 7 games involving Big Ten teams have spreads that opened at no less than 2 full touch downs. The only non-conference game on tap is Middle Tennessee State (-24.5) at Iowa. If nothing else this game should provide an interesting comparative test to give us a preview of what to expect when Iowa makes a road trip to Ann Arbor next weekend.
Speaking of Michigan, it certainly has been fun to watch the implosion of the Wolverine fan-base this week. It is like a modern day Fall of the House of Wolverine ("Will Michigan ever be good again...?" Quoth the Raven, "Nevermore...") But, this week Rutgers (+27.5) is coming to town and Rutgers is really, really bad. The spread suggests that there is only a 2.6% chance of an upset, so expect Michigan to get a bounce-back win and start to immediately talk about winning the Big Ten and making the Playoffs.
As for the other potential blow-outs, poor Northwestern has to travel to Wisconsin (-21), we already talked about Indiana at MSU (-15.5), and Ohio State (-14) is similarly favored at Nebraska. Over the summer, on paper at least, this was the most likely looking upset on the Buckeye's schedule. While I fully expect OSU to win and to cover, this one is on the road, and odd things can happen in Lincoln (see: MSU, 2015). Let's face it, it would be just like the Huskers to get Ohio State all pissed off before MSU pays them a visit next week in Columbus.
The two remaining games feature Minnesota (-2.5) at Purdue, and, in my opinion, the most interesting game on the Big Ten schedule this week: Penn State (-6) at Maryland. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Nittany Lions will roll in this one, but the Vegas line suggests that they only have a 66% chance of winning straight up. Maryland obviously stubbed their toe in Week 3, but they looked pretty strong before that and have now had a week to think about things. Penn State has shown signs of vulnerability. If nothing else, it is noteworthy that if I remove the influence of the preseason rankings on my algorithm's predictions (something I will do next week anyway) it actually likes both Purdue and Maryland in upset wins this weekend. It is certainly something to watch for.
SEC
Similar to the Big Ten this week, the schedule in the SEC is a bit underwhelming. A lot of the contenders (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Missouri) are on a bye this week, and Alabama (-34) and Texas A&M (-21.5) are both huge favorites over Ole Miss and Arkansas, respectively. Mississippi State is at Auburn (-10) which might have been interesting if that were a road game for the Tigers. That only leaves two games, one of which is Northern Illinois at Vandy (-6.5), which is really just an exercise in the SEC trying to avoid yet another embarrassing loss by one of their lower tier teams.
That leaves one game of interest, and that is the SEC East battle featuring Kentucky at South Carolina (-3.5). Neither team appears to be a challenger for the Division crown, so at this point they may just both be battling to stay above water for a bowl game. At 1-3, it is already not looking good for South Carolina. Furthermore, my model likes Kentucky in a mild upset when I remove the preseason rankings from the analysis.
ACC / Notre Dame
It is increasingly clear this year that we are basically just waiting to see if Clemson is going to screw up before they get to the playoffs. This week, Clemson travels to North Carolina (-24.5). The Tar Heals couldn't even protect home turf against Appalachian State last week, so how do you think this one is going to go?
Once Clemson makes the ACC Title Game, it is really just a question of which team the Tigers are going to murder and bury under the floor boards once they get there. Right now, the leading contender is Virginia, who travels to Norte Dame (-11.5). The Irish are fresh off of their not-quite-as-bad-as-expected loss to Georgia last week. It honestly doesn't really matter if Virginia wins or not, as their only realistic goal is to prove that they are the 2nd best team in the ACC such that they can play in the Orange Bowl. Considering the rest of the ACC outside of Clemson is an actively burning dumpster fire, that looks like a good bet no matter the result of this game.
As for Notre Dame, they have one loss now, and their remaining schedule is looking easier by the minute. They only have 3 road games left: at Michigan, at Duke, and at Stanford. It is hard to imagine a loss in that group. As for "tough" home games they have this week's game, USC, and VA Tech. None of those teams rank in my current Top 25. If the Irish can beat Virginia by double digits, I think an 11-1 record is possible if not probable, which puts them square in the Playoff conversation.
As for the rest of the ACC, I count four games all with spreads under ten points, and none of them look important. OK, maybe Wake Forest (-4) at BC? Maybe? Is the winner their the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division? Wow, ouch...
Big 12
On the Great Plains, Oklahoma is still the perceived favorite, and they open up league play this week by hosting Texas Tech (-24). As the spread implies, that game should not be close. Other than that, much like the ACC, the big race will likely be the one for second place, and there are a couple of games this week that will impact that battle. As I look at the data, I think there are up to six teams that are still in play for that slot, and four of them are playing each other. The other two (Texas and TCU), are either on a Bye (Texas) or hosting Kansas (+16), which is almost as good as a bye.
Those two remaining games feature Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor and Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-5). Obviously both games are expected to be close and the losers are going slowly start to have that feeling of being walled up in a niche in the wine cellar while the remaining teams continue to party upstairs.
Pac 12
While the action in the Big Ten and SEC is more mild than expected, it looks like it could be another wild weekend out West. Colorado and Oregon are on a bye, but the remaining 10 teams are all playing each other, and none of the Vegas lines are above 10 points. The most important game of the week is likely USC at Washington (-9.5). With a win over Utah last week, USC is now in the driver's seat in the South Division, but the Trojans have a tougher schedule compared to the Utes. If USC does lose this weekend, it leaves the door open for other teams to potential sneak back into the race.
Speaking of Utah, the Utes (-6) host Washington State is a battle of two teams coming off disappointing losses. Neither team can afford to lose this game and still be in their respective conference race.
The other game with significant divisional race consequences is Arizona State at Cal (-5.5). ASU's win over MSU has boosted their ranking, at least in my system, but last's weeks loss to Colorado brings into question if ASU really is a contender in the South or not. Meanwhile, Cal is starting to become a trendy pick as the dark horse team to win the North. If nothing else, they are the only undefeated team left in the Pac-12. The winner of this game will still be considered a contender, while the loser likely won't be.
The final two games are of less importance: UCLA at Arizona (-7) and Stanford at Oregon State (+3). The spread of these games suggests that they might be fun to watch, but the most interesting aspect for me is that my unbiased power rankings (i.e. without the preseason rankings) actually picked Oregon State in an upset this week. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Group of Five
The big news in the Group of Five last week was UCF's loss at Pittsburgh, which now has shed a little doubt on which team will claim that NY6 spot in the Cotton Bowl. UCF is a 42.5-point favorite over UCONN, so they are unlikely to damage their resume any more this week. As for other AAC teams on our watch list, Cincinnati has a tough test at Marshall (+3), while Memphis (-11.5) plays host to Navy. Memphis can still take a bad loss and potentially recover enough to make the NY6. As for Cincinnati, I think that they need to win this weekend to stay on course as a potential spoiler.
In the Mountain West, Boise still has the best odds to win the conference, and they (along with San Diego State) are on a bye this week. Utah State (-20.5 vs. Colorado State) and Fresno (-17.5 at New Mexico State) are both big favorites and both likely to stay in the race.
As for other Group of Five games of interest, UAB will travel to Western Kentucky (+1) and will try to maintain their position as the only defeated team in Conference USA. In MACtion, Toledo (+3) is a narrow underdog at home vs, BYU, and Central Michigan travels to Kalamazoo to face the Broncos (-16). More algorithm likes Toledo in as upset. Finally, Appalachian State looks to stay undefeated against Coastal Carolina.
That is all for this week, so enjoy the action this week. Until then, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Hosiers!
(whoosh)
In Week 2, MSU suddenly caught fire on offense. Everything clinked. MSU rolled. Some wondered if the offense even looked better than the defense. MSU fans started to ponder another run to Indianapolis and beyond...
(whoosh)
In Week 3, MSU was again sloppy and error prone. Watching the game was like torture, and as the candle of time finally burned out, MSU found themselves behind on the scoreboard and with a loss on their ledger. Coach Dantonio was once again called into question. The week soon turned into the Spanish Inquisition. But, all was not lost...
(whoosh)
In Week 4, MSU started fast, but soon descended in the pit of mistakes and misdeeds. Spartan fans had that all-too familiar feeling of a pit of our collective stomachs. Then suddenly, MSU was rescued by the heroic act of an interception by Josiah Scott. The game turned, and MSU stormed to victory.
So, that leaves us in Week 5. The Indiana Hoosiers are coming to town which can only mean that the Old Brass Spittoon is once again up for grabs. For MSU, this is the latest chance to show they are both an improved but also a consistent team, especially on offense. MSU needs to stop the pendulum from once again swinging to its opposite extreme.
That is the ultimate question for the week: will MSU be sharp as a razor-sharp scythe or will MSU hock up a loogie onto their collective shoes? The Vegas lines opened at -15.5 for MSU based on my source, but it seems to have settled in at -14 almost immediately. That corresponds to a 84% chance that MSU escapes unscathed and with their favorite spittin' bucket still in the trophy case. My algorithm is slightly more optimistic, but only by a point or two (-16.7). Overall, the math suggests MSU wins something like 31-14.
On balance, despite my fondness for the horror genre so far this year, I feel pretty good about this one. Last week felt like MSU finally started to gel and they look ready to turn the page. The added subtle pressure of Coach D breaking the MSU record is also now in the rear-view mirror and I think that will help the overall team psyche. It is homecoming and I think that this is a game MSU should and will win, hopefully easily. If for some reason they don't, well, that will be a real spit in the eye.
National Overview
As usual, here is my weekly preview chart showing my spreadsheet's picks for the week relative to the Vegas lines.
For reference, here are ESPN's FPI picks for the week
If you think that there are a lot of games crammed down into the lower left corner of both plot, you would be correct. A full 49% of the games this week (25/51) have a spread that opened at 7 points or lower. This has all the hallmarks of an exciting weekend.
Fortunately, MSU is not one of those teams with a tight spread. As mentioned above, the line is right around -14, and both my algorithm and the FPI come to almost exactly the same conclusion. My data suggests MSU will barely cover, so I will go with that, but again, the signal is no where strong enough to issue a recommendation. As for the over/under, my data suggests it should be 46 or 47, while Vegas has it around 44 or 45. I would not get within spitting distance of that one.
As for bets that might be more appealing, here are my recommended bets for Week 5
Overall, my spreadsheet like 6 teams to cover this week, while the FPI add two additional bets. As for a parlay, the strongest signals are coming from the Ohio State and Wisconsin games this weekend. All-in-all, that seems like a good bet based on what we have seen so far this year.
As for upsets, my picks for this week are shown below:
Finally, we weekly simulation suggests that we will see 12.8 ± 2.9 upsets in Week 5. Once again, that is the new record high number of upsets predicted in a single week so far this year.
With that, let's now take a spin around the country to see what's happening in each conference
Big Ten
Considering that the majority of the games on the national schedule this week are expected to be close, the Big Ten looks to be a bit of a yawner, as 5 of the 7 games involving Big Ten teams have spreads that opened at no less than 2 full touch downs. The only non-conference game on tap is Middle Tennessee State (-24.5) at Iowa. If nothing else this game should provide an interesting comparative test to give us a preview of what to expect when Iowa makes a road trip to Ann Arbor next weekend.
Speaking of Michigan, it certainly has been fun to watch the implosion of the Wolverine fan-base this week. It is like a modern day Fall of the House of Wolverine ("Will Michigan ever be good again...?" Quoth the Raven, "Nevermore...") But, this week Rutgers (+27.5) is coming to town and Rutgers is really, really bad. The spread suggests that there is only a 2.6% chance of an upset, so expect Michigan to get a bounce-back win and start to immediately talk about winning the Big Ten and making the Playoffs.
As for the other potential blow-outs, poor Northwestern has to travel to Wisconsin (-21), we already talked about Indiana at MSU (-15.5), and Ohio State (-14) is similarly favored at Nebraska. Over the summer, on paper at least, this was the most likely looking upset on the Buckeye's schedule. While I fully expect OSU to win and to cover, this one is on the road, and odd things can happen in Lincoln (see: MSU, 2015). Let's face it, it would be just like the Huskers to get Ohio State all pissed off before MSU pays them a visit next week in Columbus.
The two remaining games feature Minnesota (-2.5) at Purdue, and, in my opinion, the most interesting game on the Big Ten schedule this week: Penn State (-6) at Maryland. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Nittany Lions will roll in this one, but the Vegas line suggests that they only have a 66% chance of winning straight up. Maryland obviously stubbed their toe in Week 3, but they looked pretty strong before that and have now had a week to think about things. Penn State has shown signs of vulnerability. If nothing else, it is noteworthy that if I remove the influence of the preseason rankings on my algorithm's predictions (something I will do next week anyway) it actually likes both Purdue and Maryland in upset wins this weekend. It is certainly something to watch for.
SEC
Similar to the Big Ten this week, the schedule in the SEC is a bit underwhelming. A lot of the contenders (Georgia, Florida, LSU, Missouri) are on a bye this week, and Alabama (-34) and Texas A&M (-21.5) are both huge favorites over Ole Miss and Arkansas, respectively. Mississippi State is at Auburn (-10) which might have been interesting if that were a road game for the Tigers. That only leaves two games, one of which is Northern Illinois at Vandy (-6.5), which is really just an exercise in the SEC trying to avoid yet another embarrassing loss by one of their lower tier teams.
That leaves one game of interest, and that is the SEC East battle featuring Kentucky at South Carolina (-3.5). Neither team appears to be a challenger for the Division crown, so at this point they may just both be battling to stay above water for a bowl game. At 1-3, it is already not looking good for South Carolina. Furthermore, my model likes Kentucky in a mild upset when I remove the preseason rankings from the analysis.
ACC / Notre Dame
It is increasingly clear this year that we are basically just waiting to see if Clemson is going to screw up before they get to the playoffs. This week, Clemson travels to North Carolina (-24.5). The Tar Heals couldn't even protect home turf against Appalachian State last week, so how do you think this one is going to go?
Once Clemson makes the ACC Title Game, it is really just a question of which team the Tigers are going to murder and bury under the floor boards once they get there. Right now, the leading contender is Virginia, who travels to Norte Dame (-11.5). The Irish are fresh off of their not-quite-as-bad-as-expected loss to Georgia last week. It honestly doesn't really matter if Virginia wins or not, as their only realistic goal is to prove that they are the 2nd best team in the ACC such that they can play in the Orange Bowl. Considering the rest of the ACC outside of Clemson is an actively burning dumpster fire, that looks like a good bet no matter the result of this game.
As for Notre Dame, they have one loss now, and their remaining schedule is looking easier by the minute. They only have 3 road games left: at Michigan, at Duke, and at Stanford. It is hard to imagine a loss in that group. As for "tough" home games they have this week's game, USC, and VA Tech. None of those teams rank in my current Top 25. If the Irish can beat Virginia by double digits, I think an 11-1 record is possible if not probable, which puts them square in the Playoff conversation.
As for the rest of the ACC, I count four games all with spreads under ten points, and none of them look important. OK, maybe Wake Forest (-4) at BC? Maybe? Is the winner their the 2nd best team in the Atlantic Division? Wow, ouch...
Big 12
On the Great Plains, Oklahoma is still the perceived favorite, and they open up league play this week by hosting Texas Tech (-24). As the spread implies, that game should not be close. Other than that, much like the ACC, the big race will likely be the one for second place, and there are a couple of games this week that will impact that battle. As I look at the data, I think there are up to six teams that are still in play for that slot, and four of them are playing each other. The other two (Texas and TCU), are either on a Bye (Texas) or hosting Kansas (+16), which is almost as good as a bye.
Those two remaining games feature Iowa State (-2.5) at Baylor and Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-5). Obviously both games are expected to be close and the losers are going slowly start to have that feeling of being walled up in a niche in the wine cellar while the remaining teams continue to party upstairs.
Pac 12
While the action in the Big Ten and SEC is more mild than expected, it looks like it could be another wild weekend out West. Colorado and Oregon are on a bye, but the remaining 10 teams are all playing each other, and none of the Vegas lines are above 10 points. The most important game of the week is likely USC at Washington (-9.5). With a win over Utah last week, USC is now in the driver's seat in the South Division, but the Trojans have a tougher schedule compared to the Utes. If USC does lose this weekend, it leaves the door open for other teams to potential sneak back into the race.
Speaking of Utah, the Utes (-6) host Washington State is a battle of two teams coming off disappointing losses. Neither team can afford to lose this game and still be in their respective conference race.
The other game with significant divisional race consequences is Arizona State at Cal (-5.5). ASU's win over MSU has boosted their ranking, at least in my system, but last's weeks loss to Colorado brings into question if ASU really is a contender in the South or not. Meanwhile, Cal is starting to become a trendy pick as the dark horse team to win the North. If nothing else, they are the only undefeated team left in the Pac-12. The winner of this game will still be considered a contender, while the loser likely won't be.
The final two games are of less importance: UCLA at Arizona (-7) and Stanford at Oregon State (+3). The spread of these games suggests that they might be fun to watch, but the most interesting aspect for me is that my unbiased power rankings (i.e. without the preseason rankings) actually picked Oregon State in an upset this week. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.
Group of Five
The big news in the Group of Five last week was UCF's loss at Pittsburgh, which now has shed a little doubt on which team will claim that NY6 spot in the Cotton Bowl. UCF is a 42.5-point favorite over UCONN, so they are unlikely to damage their resume any more this week. As for other AAC teams on our watch list, Cincinnati has a tough test at Marshall (+3), while Memphis (-11.5) plays host to Navy. Memphis can still take a bad loss and potentially recover enough to make the NY6. As for Cincinnati, I think that they need to win this weekend to stay on course as a potential spoiler.
In the Mountain West, Boise still has the best odds to win the conference, and they (along with San Diego State) are on a bye this week. Utah State (-20.5 vs. Colorado State) and Fresno (-17.5 at New Mexico State) are both big favorites and both likely to stay in the race.
As for other Group of Five games of interest, UAB will travel to Western Kentucky (+1) and will try to maintain their position as the only defeated team in Conference USA. In MACtion, Toledo (+3) is a narrow underdog at home vs, BYU, and Central Michigan travels to Kalamazoo to face the Broncos (-16). More algorithm likes Toledo in as upset. Finally, Appalachian State looks to stay undefeated against Coastal Carolina.
That is all for this week, so enjoy the action this week. Until then, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Hosiers!
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