10 When it comes down to the most BASIC description of me as an MSU fan, the word that I always come a back to is "optimistic." It is not that I believe that MSU is going to win every single game that they play. It is more that I usually try to think about how MSU might be able to win a game and how likely that scenario is to occur. TO that end, I seek INPUT from the DATA that I have accumulated throughout both this season and over the past 20 seasons or so. FOR MSU's NEXT contest in Columbus, I find this exercise to be particularly useful.
20 So, let's address the bad news first. Ohio State looks like a juggernaut. It is possible that they are the best team in the country right now, and MSU needs to GO TO their house. That's not great. As for the numbers, the picture that they paint is not exactly encouraging. LET me explain.
30 TO put things into perspective, in 2015 MSU was +13.5 at OSU. In 2018, MSU was +13.5 at Penn State. In 2017, MSU was +10 vs. Penn State at home. MSU won all 3 of those games, but those are the biggest home and away upsets for MSU back to 2001. MSU opened +17.5 in some places, but it rose so quickly that the source I use says it opened at +20. My spreadsheet is even less optimistic than that. It has MSU at +27.4 WHILE the FPI is slightly more optimistic and has MSU at +18.4. Either way, if MSU pulls this upset, it will be the biggest MSU upset since MSU beat #1 OSU in 1998 in Columbus.
40 But, things are perhaps not quite as bleak as they seem. Teams that open around +20 actually do win straight-up around 8% of the time and this magnitude of upset does occur roughly 4-5 times in any given football season. We have already observed three upsets of a similar or great magnitude already this year:
REM GA State over Tennessee (+25.5)
REM Kansas over Boston College (+18.5)
REM San Jose State over Arkansas (+20.5)
50 So, WHILE an MSU upset would be a huge deal, it is not crazy to imagine that it could happen. At the END of the day, college football has far more variability than most casual fans realize. As I have shown in the past, the standard deviation of the final margin of victory relative to the spread is almost exactly 2 TDs. In other words, an MSU victory would be a result that is only 1.5 standard deviations from the mean. That is unusual, but not exactly rare. In other words, there is certainly a path to an upset, even if it is a narrow one.
60 So, what might that narrow path look like? From a very BASIC point of view, MSU needs to play very, very well. MSU needs to bring its A-game or A- game. At the same time, OSU probably needs to be a bit lack-luster. They need to bring their C or C- game. In past years, OSU has thrown out a stinker performance a handful of times a year. IF OSU happens to have one of those types of games this weekend, THEN MSU will have a chance to win.
70 IF MSU's rush defense can stand up and shut down OSU on the ground, THEN the Buckeyes might become 1-dimensional.
80 IF OSU becomes 1-dimensional, THEN it puts more pressure on Fields to perform against what might be the best defense he sees all year.
90 IF OSU's offense is frustrated, THEN they might start to press and make mistakes. IF MSU can win the turnover battle by 2 or even 3, THEN MSU has a shot.
100 IF MSU's offense can limit errors (penalties, miscommunications between QB and WR, inaccurate or risky throws) THEN the Salem offense might just be able to scheme enough points to stay in it. AND
110 IF MSU's special teams play to their potential, THEN it just adds to the urgency on the OSU side to also play a clean game. OSU has faced very little adversity so far this year. How will they respond IF MSU presents them with some?
120 What are the odds that these things come to pass? I actually already told you. It's probably around 8%. But, there is also the other side of this particular bell curve. There are a lot of things on the LIST of potential problems.
130 IF OSU is able to run the ball and run their full offense, THEN MSU is likely in trouble.
140 IF MSU fumbles a punt or misses another FG, THEN is could be a long day.
150 IF MSU's defense blows a few assignments or misses a few tackles, THEN they are going to be hearing the Buckeye Battle Cry more times that any of us would like. While there is a non-negligible probability that MSU comes out on top, there is a much bigger probability (about 30%) that OSU boat-races MSU by 28 points or more.
160 At the END of the day, MSU needs to view this game simply as an opportunity. Despite the early loss to Arizona State, it is true that all of MSU's goals are still in front of them. IF MSU still has the desire to GO TO Indianapolis in early December, we are almost certainly going to need to win this game. IF that does come to pass, THEN the discussion just might turn to the idea that IF the officiating had been better in the ASU game, THEN MSU might be a playoff contender... IF only.
170 END
National Overview
My weekly preview chart, showing my spreadsheets projected margins of victory relative to the Vegas line, is shown below. For the first time this week, I have removed the influence of the preseason rankings, so the correlation to the spread is a little weaker. While some teams have played 5 FBS teams, some others have played only 3 FBS teams, 1 FCS team (the results of which I ignore) and had a bye week. So, the data is still just a little bit sparse. It will get better from here on out.
For comparison, here is the same plot, using ESPN's FPI's projections.
I already mentioned above the detailed break down of MSU's line and the probabilistic ramifications. The only thing that I will add is that my computer spits out a projected final score of 41-13, OSU. The over/under for the game is right around 50 points, so my model does like the over. As mentioned above, ESPN's FPI does like MSU slightly more than Vegas and only has MSU losing by 18.4. I think that counts as one of the nicest things ESPN has said about MSU at least 2 years.
As for my recommended bets, the newly found freedom of my algorithm from the bounds of the preseason rankings has caused it to make all sorts of bold picks this week. A grand total of 14 games fall into the regime of a recommended bet, with one more bet from the FPI for good measure. The recommended bet table is shown here
Big Ten
The program in the Big Ten this week calls for 6 conference games and one non conference game that is not expected to be close (Kent State at Wisconsin (-35.5)). We have already talked in depth about MSU's visit to Columbus and I mentioned above that my algorithm likes Penn State (-24) to cover at home vs. Purdue. Maryland (-11.5) also visits Rutgers in a likely battle for the Big Ten East basement.
Two of the remaining games could get interesting, as Northwestern visits Nebraska (-6.5) and Illinois visits Minnesota (-14). My spreadsheet has a very different view on how it thinks those two games are going to go down. Somewhat surprisingly, it likes Nebraska to cover pretty easily against the Wildcats, a move which would keep Nebraska's fading hopes of Big Ten West glory alive... for now. In the other game, my numbers actually like Illinois to cover and perhaps almost upset Minnesota on the road. Based on my current data, I actually have Illinois as the 4th best team in the West (behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska). We will see if my computer still believes that on Sunday morning.
But, if you are looking for something to DO WHILE you wait for MSU's night game the most intriguing game of the Big Ten slate this week is Iowa's road trip to face Michigan (-5). While Vegas and even some of the other computer models (such as the FPI) still seem to think that Michigan is the better team, my spreadsheet is significantly more skeptical. Dropping Michigan's preseason Top 5 ranking from their resume resulting in the Wolverines falling down to #57 in my power rankings while Iowa is up at #15. As such, my calculations call for a 11.5 point road win for the Hawkeyes as well as a strong recommendation to take the Hawkeyes to cover.
While I suppose it is possible that UofM is suddenly going to play like a Top 20 team, they literally haven't done a single thing this year to warrant the assumption that they are even a Top 50 team. Sorry, but beating Rutgers silly doesn't qualify. Recall that even in 2016, MSU beat Rutgers 49-0. It seems that Vegas and even some of the computer models are being sucked in by the fight song, the helmets, and the recruiting rankings. As for me and my computer, they are going to need to show that they can beat a team with a pulse, and I frankly doubt that we are going to see it this weekend. If Michigan fans were upset by the drubbing they received on the road in Wisconsin, losing by double digits to Iowa at home could be even worse. This could be a watershed moment for the Wolverines and the entire Big Ten.
SEC
The action in the SEC this week includes 2 non-conference games and 3 conference contests, while the remaining 6 teams are taking the weekend off to pause and debug any problems. While neither of the non-conference games are likely to be close, especially Troy at Missouri (-25.5), and other contest featuring Utah State at LSU (-23.5) looks a bit more interesting. Obviously, LSU is a huge favorite here, but Utah State (as MSU fans found out last year) is a pretty legit team that can create problems. They recently surged into the lead in my odds to win their Division in the Mountain West, so I have my eye on them. They did lose a close game at Wake Forest in Week 1, but an upset here would completely undue that damage.
As for the conference games, Georgia (-24.5) travels to Rocky Top to face Tennessee. Considering the Vols couldn't even beat Georgia State in Week 1, this one could get ugly. Vandy also travels to Ole Miss (-6.5) in a battle of SEC teams that will most likely both be home for the holidays.
That leaves the main event in the SEC this week, the match-up of unbeatens: Auburn at Florida (+2.5). Both teams have relatively difficult schedules coming up, so honestly both teams might be a long-shot anyway to win their respective division. So, this game might wind up being a knock-out round to weed out one of the pretenders from the overall SEC race. Based on my algorithm, it's the Gators that look like the pretenders as they dropped from #11 to #39 this week once the benefit of the preseason rankings were removed. Meanwhile, Auburn jumped up into my Top 5. I project a ~2 TD win for the Tigers.
Big 12
As I look through the program on the plains this weekend, it has the feel of a seeded single elimination tournament. The 1-seed, Oklahoma (-34) travels to the 10-seed, Kansas. The 2-seed, Texas (-9.5) travels to the 9-seed, West Virginia, and the 3-seed, Oklahoma State (-8) travels to face the 8-seed, Texas Tech. The fact that the top "seeds" all have to go on the road is interesting, and line for the Texas and OK State games are quite a bit tighter than I would have expected. My spreadsheet is predicting a 20+ point win for the favorite in each contest.
The remaining two games have that classic March 4-seed / 5-seed feel as TCU travels to Iowa State (-3) and Baylor visits Kansas State (-4). Those games should be close but my spreadsheet like the favorites to cover in both cases.
ACC / Notre Dame
If one were to INPUT the phrase "interesting Week 6 ACC Action" the result would be: ERROR, FILE NOT FOUND. In my current power rankings, I only have 3 ACC teams in my Top 50: Clemson, Virginia, and Wake Forest. They are all on a bye week. Notre Dame can't even help out, as they are 45-point favorite over Bowling Green. So, that leaves four conference games, only one of which features a team with less that 2 losses: Pitt at Duke (-5). For the record, my spreadsheet likes the Panthers in an upset here. Other than that... I guess VA Tech at Miami (-12.5) might be OK, until you realize that the loser will be 2-3. LET us get out of this subroutine. NEXT!
PAC 12
Unfortunately, I seem to have entered an infinite loop of mediocrity as I jumped from the ACC to the PAC 12 this week. The program out West looks no better than the other coast. Similar to the ACC several of the contenders are on a bye week (USC, Utah, Washington State, and Arizona State) which just leaves four rather lack-luster conference games. OK, Cal at Oregon (-18.5) certainly will have an impact, but is the best game of the weekend really one with almost a 20-point spread? Well, probably yes. Washington at Stanford (+13) is not supposed to be close, and Arizona at Colorado (-3) is not likely to matter, and then there is 1-3 Oregon State at 1-4 UCLA (-8.5). For the second week in a row, my algorithm likes the Beavers in an upset. It didn't actually happen last week, but... you never know.
Group of Five
During the summer, I circled one game specifically that I thought could potentially decide the fate of the American Athletic Conference and therefore the Group of Five bid to the NY6. That game is UCF at Cincinnati (+3) and it is taking place this weekend. A few weeks ago, it looked like UCF was going to run away with the NY6 bid, but after their ill-fated trip to Pittsburgh in Week 4, the field is a bit more wide open. The winner of this game certainly gets a leg up in the AAC East, while the loser's dream for a trip to Dallas over the Holidays is likely over.
As for other games involving G5 contenders, they don't look nearly so compelling. Memphis (-13.5) has a little test at UL Monroe, but it isn't something that they shouldn't be able to handle. Boise State (-24) is unlikely to face resistance at UNLV, but San Diego State might have trouble at Colorado State (+6). I already mentioned Utah State's (-23.5) road trip to Baton Rouge, and Western Michigan has a tough test at Toledo (-4). Other for other teams that I am tracking, both Fresno State and App State have byes.
Well, I have reached the END for today, so it is time to compile the source code. Enjoy the weekend (as much as we can), enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Buckeyes.
20 So, let's address the bad news first. Ohio State looks like a juggernaut. It is possible that they are the best team in the country right now, and MSU needs to GO TO their house. That's not great. As for the numbers, the picture that they paint is not exactly encouraging. LET me explain.
30 TO put things into perspective, in 2015 MSU was +13.5 at OSU. In 2018, MSU was +13.5 at Penn State. In 2017, MSU was +10 vs. Penn State at home. MSU won all 3 of those games, but those are the biggest home and away upsets for MSU back to 2001. MSU opened +17.5 in some places, but it rose so quickly that the source I use says it opened at +20. My spreadsheet is even less optimistic than that. It has MSU at +27.4 WHILE the FPI is slightly more optimistic and has MSU at +18.4. Either way, if MSU pulls this upset, it will be the biggest MSU upset since MSU beat #1 OSU in 1998 in Columbus.
40 But, things are perhaps not quite as bleak as they seem. Teams that open around +20 actually do win straight-up around 8% of the time and this magnitude of upset does occur roughly 4-5 times in any given football season. We have already observed three upsets of a similar or great magnitude already this year:
REM GA State over Tennessee (+25.5)
REM Kansas over Boston College (+18.5)
REM San Jose State over Arkansas (+20.5)
50 So, WHILE an MSU upset would be a huge deal, it is not crazy to imagine that it could happen. At the END of the day, college football has far more variability than most casual fans realize. As I have shown in the past, the standard deviation of the final margin of victory relative to the spread is almost exactly 2 TDs. In other words, an MSU victory would be a result that is only 1.5 standard deviations from the mean. That is unusual, but not exactly rare. In other words, there is certainly a path to an upset, even if it is a narrow one.
60 So, what might that narrow path look like? From a very BASIC point of view, MSU needs to play very, very well. MSU needs to bring its A-game or A- game. At the same time, OSU probably needs to be a bit lack-luster. They need to bring their C or C- game. In past years, OSU has thrown out a stinker performance a handful of times a year. IF OSU happens to have one of those types of games this weekend, THEN MSU will have a chance to win.
70 IF MSU's rush defense can stand up and shut down OSU on the ground, THEN the Buckeyes might become 1-dimensional.
80 IF OSU becomes 1-dimensional, THEN it puts more pressure on Fields to perform against what might be the best defense he sees all year.
90 IF OSU's offense is frustrated, THEN they might start to press and make mistakes. IF MSU can win the turnover battle by 2 or even 3, THEN MSU has a shot.
100 IF MSU's offense can limit errors (penalties, miscommunications between QB and WR, inaccurate or risky throws) THEN the Salem offense might just be able to scheme enough points to stay in it. AND
110 IF MSU's special teams play to their potential, THEN it just adds to the urgency on the OSU side to also play a clean game. OSU has faced very little adversity so far this year. How will they respond IF MSU presents them with some?
120 What are the odds that these things come to pass? I actually already told you. It's probably around 8%. But, there is also the other side of this particular bell curve. There are a lot of things on the LIST of potential problems.
130 IF OSU is able to run the ball and run their full offense, THEN MSU is likely in trouble.
140 IF MSU fumbles a punt or misses another FG, THEN is could be a long day.
150 IF MSU's defense blows a few assignments or misses a few tackles, THEN they are going to be hearing the Buckeye Battle Cry more times that any of us would like. While there is a non-negligible probability that MSU comes out on top, there is a much bigger probability (about 30%) that OSU boat-races MSU by 28 points or more.
160 At the END of the day, MSU needs to view this game simply as an opportunity. Despite the early loss to Arizona State, it is true that all of MSU's goals are still in front of them. IF MSU still has the desire to GO TO Indianapolis in early December, we are almost certainly going to need to win this game. IF that does come to pass, THEN the discussion just might turn to the idea that IF the officiating had been better in the ASU game, THEN MSU might be a playoff contender... IF only.
170 END
National Overview
My weekly preview chart, showing my spreadsheets projected margins of victory relative to the Vegas line, is shown below. For the first time this week, I have removed the influence of the preseason rankings, so the correlation to the spread is a little weaker. While some teams have played 5 FBS teams, some others have played only 3 FBS teams, 1 FCS team (the results of which I ignore) and had a bye week. So, the data is still just a little bit sparse. It will get better from here on out.
For comparison, here is the same plot, using ESPN's FPI's projections.
I already mentioned above the detailed break down of MSU's line and the probabilistic ramifications. The only thing that I will add is that my computer spits out a projected final score of 41-13, OSU. The over/under for the game is right around 50 points, so my model does like the over. As mentioned above, ESPN's FPI does like MSU slightly more than Vegas and only has MSU losing by 18.4. I think that counts as one of the nicest things ESPN has said about MSU at least 2 years.
As for my recommended bets, the newly found freedom of my algorithm from the bounds of the preseason rankings has caused it to make all sorts of bold picks this week. A grand total of 14 games fall into the regime of a recommended bet, with one more bet from the FPI for good measure. The recommended bet table is shown here
If you are looking for a 2-team parlay this week, my math likes Penn State and Louisville to cover. I would be lying if I said I have a lot of confidence in these picks, but I think it is best to stick to the program and see how this plays out...
As for upsets, for similar reasons my model has a lot of picks. Those are summarized below:
Notable here are the UCONN over USF and Oregon State over UCLA. Those seem like bold picks... Also note a certain team for Ann Arbor on this list. It seems that we have come to the point of the season where the FPI is mostly parroting out the Vegas line. While that may have some value in projecting future lines, it really doesn't add any value once the lines for each week are announced. Finally, I should note that my simulation of the week suggests that we will see 12.2 ± 2.9 upsets. Here’s to hoping one of them occurs in Columbus.
ERROR. OUT OF DATA. GO TO detailed conference overviews.
The program in the Big Ten this week calls for 6 conference games and one non conference game that is not expected to be close (Kent State at Wisconsin (-35.5)). We have already talked in depth about MSU's visit to Columbus and I mentioned above that my algorithm likes Penn State (-24) to cover at home vs. Purdue. Maryland (-11.5) also visits Rutgers in a likely battle for the Big Ten East basement.
Two of the remaining games could get interesting, as Northwestern visits Nebraska (-6.5) and Illinois visits Minnesota (-14). My spreadsheet has a very different view on how it thinks those two games are going to go down. Somewhat surprisingly, it likes Nebraska to cover pretty easily against the Wildcats, a move which would keep Nebraska's fading hopes of Big Ten West glory alive... for now. In the other game, my numbers actually like Illinois to cover and perhaps almost upset Minnesota on the road. Based on my current data, I actually have Illinois as the 4th best team in the West (behind Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska). We will see if my computer still believes that on Sunday morning.
But, if you are looking for something to DO WHILE you wait for MSU's night game the most intriguing game of the Big Ten slate this week is Iowa's road trip to face Michigan (-5). While Vegas and even some of the other computer models (such as the FPI) still seem to think that Michigan is the better team, my spreadsheet is significantly more skeptical. Dropping Michigan's preseason Top 5 ranking from their resume resulting in the Wolverines falling down to #57 in my power rankings while Iowa is up at #15. As such, my calculations call for a 11.5 point road win for the Hawkeyes as well as a strong recommendation to take the Hawkeyes to cover.
While I suppose it is possible that UofM is suddenly going to play like a Top 20 team, they literally haven't done a single thing this year to warrant the assumption that they are even a Top 50 team. Sorry, but beating Rutgers silly doesn't qualify. Recall that even in 2016, MSU beat Rutgers 49-0. It seems that Vegas and even some of the computer models are being sucked in by the fight song, the helmets, and the recruiting rankings. As for me and my computer, they are going to need to show that they can beat a team with a pulse, and I frankly doubt that we are going to see it this weekend. If Michigan fans were upset by the drubbing they received on the road in Wisconsin, losing by double digits to Iowa at home could be even worse. This could be a watershed moment for the Wolverines and the entire Big Ten.
SEC
The action in the SEC this week includes 2 non-conference games and 3 conference contests, while the remaining 6 teams are taking the weekend off to pause and debug any problems. While neither of the non-conference games are likely to be close, especially Troy at Missouri (-25.5), and other contest featuring Utah State at LSU (-23.5) looks a bit more interesting. Obviously, LSU is a huge favorite here, but Utah State (as MSU fans found out last year) is a pretty legit team that can create problems. They recently surged into the lead in my odds to win their Division in the Mountain West, so I have my eye on them. They did lose a close game at Wake Forest in Week 1, but an upset here would completely undue that damage.
As for the conference games, Georgia (-24.5) travels to Rocky Top to face Tennessee. Considering the Vols couldn't even beat Georgia State in Week 1, this one could get ugly. Vandy also travels to Ole Miss (-6.5) in a battle of SEC teams that will most likely both be home for the holidays.
That leaves the main event in the SEC this week, the match-up of unbeatens: Auburn at Florida (+2.5). Both teams have relatively difficult schedules coming up, so honestly both teams might be a long-shot anyway to win their respective division. So, this game might wind up being a knock-out round to weed out one of the pretenders from the overall SEC race. Based on my algorithm, it's the Gators that look like the pretenders as they dropped from #11 to #39 this week once the benefit of the preseason rankings were removed. Meanwhile, Auburn jumped up into my Top 5. I project a ~2 TD win for the Tigers.
Big 12
As I look through the program on the plains this weekend, it has the feel of a seeded single elimination tournament. The 1-seed, Oklahoma (-34) travels to the 10-seed, Kansas. The 2-seed, Texas (-9.5) travels to the 9-seed, West Virginia, and the 3-seed, Oklahoma State (-8) travels to face the 8-seed, Texas Tech. The fact that the top "seeds" all have to go on the road is interesting, and line for the Texas and OK State games are quite a bit tighter than I would have expected. My spreadsheet is predicting a 20+ point win for the favorite in each contest.
The remaining two games have that classic March 4-seed / 5-seed feel as TCU travels to Iowa State (-3) and Baylor visits Kansas State (-4). Those games should be close but my spreadsheet like the favorites to cover in both cases.
ACC / Notre Dame
If one were to INPUT the phrase "interesting Week 6 ACC Action" the result would be: ERROR, FILE NOT FOUND. In my current power rankings, I only have 3 ACC teams in my Top 50: Clemson, Virginia, and Wake Forest. They are all on a bye week. Notre Dame can't even help out, as they are 45-point favorite over Bowling Green. So, that leaves four conference games, only one of which features a team with less that 2 losses: Pitt at Duke (-5). For the record, my spreadsheet likes the Panthers in an upset here. Other than that... I guess VA Tech at Miami (-12.5) might be OK, until you realize that the loser will be 2-3. LET us get out of this subroutine. NEXT!
PAC 12
Unfortunately, I seem to have entered an infinite loop of mediocrity as I jumped from the ACC to the PAC 12 this week. The program out West looks no better than the other coast. Similar to the ACC several of the contenders are on a bye week (USC, Utah, Washington State, and Arizona State) which just leaves four rather lack-luster conference games. OK, Cal at Oregon (-18.5) certainly will have an impact, but is the best game of the weekend really one with almost a 20-point spread? Well, probably yes. Washington at Stanford (+13) is not supposed to be close, and Arizona at Colorado (-3) is not likely to matter, and then there is 1-3 Oregon State at 1-4 UCLA (-8.5). For the second week in a row, my algorithm likes the Beavers in an upset. It didn't actually happen last week, but... you never know.
Group of Five
During the summer, I circled one game specifically that I thought could potentially decide the fate of the American Athletic Conference and therefore the Group of Five bid to the NY6. That game is UCF at Cincinnati (+3) and it is taking place this weekend. A few weeks ago, it looked like UCF was going to run away with the NY6 bid, but after their ill-fated trip to Pittsburgh in Week 4, the field is a bit more wide open. The winner of this game certainly gets a leg up in the AAC East, while the loser's dream for a trip to Dallas over the Holidays is likely over.
As for other games involving G5 contenders, they don't look nearly so compelling. Memphis (-13.5) has a little test at UL Monroe, but it isn't something that they shouldn't be able to handle. Boise State (-24) is unlikely to face resistance at UNLV, but San Diego State might have trouble at Colorado State (+6). I already mentioned Utah State's (-23.5) road trip to Baton Rouge, and Western Michigan has a tough test at Toledo (-4). Other for other teams that I am tracking, both Fresno State and App State have byes.
Well, I have reached the END for today, so it is time to compile the source code. Enjoy the weekend (as much as we can), enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Buckeyes.
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