MSU may be taking the week off, but some of the rest of us still have work to do. Data never takes a vacation. So, I am back again with some more analysis and bad advice when it comes to the action of Week 8. The only things that I can promise is that MSU is not going to cover or hit the over, but they also certainly won’t lose.
Speaking of work, my work has taken me to Japan this week. So, here I am, an ocean away where I have been enjoying conversations in broken English, dodging typhoons, and pounding as much raw fish and plum wine as possible. I also went through a 6-8 hour period when I thought my laptop died, so on some level it is a miracle that I am even typing this now. (This is really just my way of providing an excuse as to why I am later than I would have liked in getting this week's preview posted, and why I am posting in the middle of the night EDT).
Meanwhile, MSU is Taking a Break, and the first order of business is to get some rest. Perhaps this weekend they should go upstate, to a lake, or a nearby park. Or, they should consider working on a hobby, like learning piano or a foreign language ("ichi ni san yon go roku nana hachi kyu jyu!"). But, at the same time, there is also the need to stay home and work on MSU's many current issues. Certainly, there is a lot on their plates in that arena.
In general, I think the week off will be a very good thing. As I look at the schedule for the season so far, the placement of this bye week for MSU is even stranger than I originally thought. This year, MSU and Nebraska are the only Power 5 teams to have played 7 consecutive games against all FBS teams without a bye week. Both those teams get this week off. Bizarrely, MSU and Nebraska (along with Notre Dame) are the only Power 5 teams with a bye this week. There are also no teams with byes in the AAC, MAC, or CUSA. The only other teams with byes are Colorado State, Texas State, UMASS and New Mexico State. Weird.
MSU needs to heal up and hit the reset button. I expect that they will look much sharper the next time we see them take the field against Penn State. This team might be lacking some key components, but I think there are lot of good parts that still have a lot of fight in them. This team is still going to give us some good moments yet this year. I believe that is something that we can take to the bank.
National Overview
As is my tradition, here is the summary of my algorithm's projected point differentials compared to the opening Vegas line, followed by the same chart using ESPN’s FPI.
Based on these charts, here are my recommended bets for the week to come:
Oddly, my algorithm has 10 recommended bets, while the FPI also decided to take a bye week when it comes to making any sort of interesting prediction. That said, only two of my ten bets actually include Power 5 teams (Wisconsin and Missouri to cover). As for a 2-team parlay, the strongest signals this week are for FAU and Kent State, but I should also caution that I have not hit a parlay since Week 4. Maybe that means I am due.
As for upset picks, the following table summarizes my picks
My algorithm and the FPI combined like 10 upsets this week, including Ole Miss over A&M, Syracuse over Pitt, BC over NC State, and K-State over TCU. I should note that I already missed on as UL-Lafayette defeated Arkansas State already.
Finally, my weekly Monte Carlo simulation suggests that we will see a total of 14.6 ± 3.2 upsets, which is the largest number so far this year. 25 of the total 61 games this week have a line at or under 7 points, so it should be a fun and relaxing (for MSU fans) week.
Let's now take a quick spin around the country to see what action might be in store in each conference:
Big Ten
MSU and Nebraska are off, but that still leaves 6 Big Ten conference games this week. Half of them are not expected to be competitive, as they involve Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Rutgers (obviously not for the same reason). The Buckeyes are -27 at Northwestern, Wisconsin is -28.5 at Illinois, and Minnesota is -27.5 at Rutgers. I would not count on any upsets there.
Two of the remaining games look fairly interesting as Indiana (-1) travels to Maryland and Purdue travels to Iowa (-16.5). The Hoosiers are currently on a pretty nice trajectory for a descent bowl game and a pretty nice win total. They are on the road two of the next three weeks but have winnable games each time (at Nebraska followed by vs. Northwestern). The various power rankings suggest that IU is a pretty descent team (I have them at 33 right now). I expect them to win comfortably this week and to run their record to 7-2 before their next bye and final gauntlet where they face Penn State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks. As for Purdue-Iowa, the Hawkeyes should win, but for some reason my upset spidey sense is pinging a little bit here.
That leaves the conference game of the week, which is clearly Michigan's road trip to Penn State for a night game. That line opened at +7.5 for the Wolverines. For what it is worth, my model likes the Nittany Lions by 14.6 and projects a final score of around 31-17. But, I simply don't have any faith in James Franklin, so I could easily see an upset here. I am not predicting it, but it could happen. Then again, Michigan hasn't beaten a Top 10 team on the road since 2006 and a Top 10 Big Ten team on the road since 2003. In 2003, that Top 10 win was actually against an MSU team that finished 8-5 with an Alamo Bowl loss in John L's first year. So, you actually have to go back to last century (1999) to find a comparable win. Interestingly, that was also a win at Penn State. Hmmmmm.
SEC
All 14 SEC teams are in conference action this week, so there is a lot going on. At the top of the conference, things should go smoothly, as Alabama (-34.5) hosts Tennessee, Georgia (-24.5) is hosting Kentucky, Missouri (-21) travels to Vandy, Auburn (-18.5) travels to Arkansas , and LSU (-17.5) travels to Mississippi State. All those games seem safe, but we thought the same thing last week about the South Carolina / Georgia game, right? Interestingly, the math suggests there is actually a 28% chance that one (or more) of those teams gets upset.
The remaining two games are pretty interesting. Last week, South Carolina took out Georgia, and this week they have their sights set on the Gators. The Gamecocks are at home and they are only a 5-point dog. Florida really can't afford to take another loss this week, while a win for the Cocks would put them in good shape to at least play in a Bowl Game.
Speaking of Bowl Games, that also seems to be the stakes for the final SEC game on the schedule, which is Texas A&M at Ole Miss (+5). My calculations have both teams with an expected win total currently south of 6, which means the winner of this game may go bowling, while the loser may not. While Vegas favors A&M, my algorithm like the Rebels in an upset.
Big 12
The Big 12 also has a full slate of conference games with all 10 teams in action. Two of the games should not be close (West Virginia at Oklahoma [-33] and Kansas at Texas [-24]) but the other three games all opened with lines below 6 points. The most interesting one is likely Baylor at Oklahoma State (-2.5). The Bears are current tied with Oklahoma for first place in the league at 3-0 and are trying to stay in the conversation for a shot at the Big 12 Title.
Meanwhile, Iowa State is a game back (having lost to Baylor) and is also vying to stay in the top tier of the conference. The Cyclones (-5.5) travel to Texas Tech this week. Finally, TCU (-2.5) travels to Manhattan to face Kansas State. K-State is entering a danger zone of being home for the holidays and a win here might keep their heads above water.
ACC
For better or worse, the entire ACC is playing as well this week. In the Atlantic Division, Clemson is continuing their slow, drunken stagger to the ACC Title game. This week's victim? Louisville (+22). While the Cardinals are at home, I don't think it will matter.
I guess I will say something nice about the ACC, and that is that at least the Atlantic Division does have some drama remaining as to who will eventually get slaughtered by Clemson in the ACC Title game. Right now, my calculations give Virginia the best odds at 31%, with UNC right there at 30%. Pitt is in 3rd place with 28% odds and Duke is next at only 9%.
This week we will likely see some separation as Duke travels to UVA (-3.5), North Carolina (-3) travels to Virginia Tech, and Pitt (-3.5) travels to Syracuse. With those lines all as tight as they are literally anything could happen.
One final note about the ACC is that despite the fact that Clemson is the only team in the conference that is ranked in the Top 45 of my power rankings (Wake is currently #2 at 49) based on my calculations of total expected wins, a shocking 10 teams from the ACC are projected to finish at 6-6 or above and make a bowl game. That is the highest current count of any of the Power 5 conferences. I honestly have no idea how that is possible.
Pac-12
Out West, Oregon already has a 2-game lead in the North Division and this weekend they can basically score a kill shot if they can beat the Washington Huskies in their own house. The Ducks are a narrow 2-point favorite, but my algorithm (and my eyeballs) tell me that Oregon is going to win by double digits. Also in North, as I am writing this, UCLA has beaten Stanford (-8) in upset fashion so it seems darn near impossible to come up with a scenario where Oregon doesn't win the North if they do beat Washington this weekend.
In the South Division, things are a bit more volatile. Four teams are tied for 1st place at 2-1, while the other two teams are tied for 5th at 1-2. So, the race is still wide, wide open. My current calculations now favor the Utes against as the favorite with 60% odds to make the Pac 12 Title Game, while Arizona State is in 2nd at 25%. Those two teams will square off this weekend in Utah (-13.5) and the winner will become the new favorite in the Division. USC currently has the 3rd best odds at 14% and they will conveniently be facing the only 2-1 South Division team in Arizona. The game will take place in L.A. where the Trojans are a 9-point favorite.
In other action, Washington State (-12.5) is looking for their first conference win vs. Colorado as both teams need a win to bolster their odds of a bowl game. Mean while, Cal (-10.5) hosts Oregon State with the hopes of getting back to their winning ways.
Group of Five
The top of the AAC looks pretty strong this year as a total of six teams have one or fewer losses. That will change this week, however, as 6-0 SMU (-7) hosts 5-1 Temple, and 5-1 Tulane travels to 5-1 Memphis (-4). Meanwhile, the other main contenders, Cincinnati and Navy, are both larger favorites at home against Tulsa (+16) and South Florida (+11.5) respectively.
Some people believe Boise State is the favorite to claim the ticket to the Cotton Bowl, but I am not sure, as I think a 1-loss AAC Champ might trump even an undefeated Boise squad. So, the Broncos would be wise an upset this weekend on the road at the hands of BYU (+6.5).
Other than that, the list of potential Group of Five spoilers is quite small. Appalachian State is still undefeated and hopes to stay that way vs UL Monroe (+16.5). San Diego State has one lose and hopes to stay that way this week at San Jose State (+7). C-USA actually has two 1-loss teams remaining. Louisiana Tech and UAB. LA Tech is actually a 1-point dog at home vs. Southern Miss, while UAB (-15) hosts Old Dominion.
That is all for now. I don't know about you, but I will be trying to follow most of the action this Saturday afternoon on a flight from LAX to Detroit. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green!
Speaking of work, my work has taken me to Japan this week. So, here I am, an ocean away where I have been enjoying conversations in broken English, dodging typhoons, and pounding as much raw fish and plum wine as possible. I also went through a 6-8 hour period when I thought my laptop died, so on some level it is a miracle that I am even typing this now. (This is really just my way of providing an excuse as to why I am later than I would have liked in getting this week's preview posted, and why I am posting in the middle of the night EDT).
Meanwhile, MSU is Taking a Break, and the first order of business is to get some rest. Perhaps this weekend they should go upstate, to a lake, or a nearby park. Or, they should consider working on a hobby, like learning piano or a foreign language ("ichi ni san yon go roku nana hachi kyu jyu!"). But, at the same time, there is also the need to stay home and work on MSU's many current issues. Certainly, there is a lot on their plates in that arena.
In general, I think the week off will be a very good thing. As I look at the schedule for the season so far, the placement of this bye week for MSU is even stranger than I originally thought. This year, MSU and Nebraska are the only Power 5 teams to have played 7 consecutive games against all FBS teams without a bye week. Both those teams get this week off. Bizarrely, MSU and Nebraska (along with Notre Dame) are the only Power 5 teams with a bye this week. There are also no teams with byes in the AAC, MAC, or CUSA. The only other teams with byes are Colorado State, Texas State, UMASS and New Mexico State. Weird.
MSU needs to heal up and hit the reset button. I expect that they will look much sharper the next time we see them take the field against Penn State. This team might be lacking some key components, but I think there are lot of good parts that still have a lot of fight in them. This team is still going to give us some good moments yet this year. I believe that is something that we can take to the bank.
National Overview
As is my tradition, here is the summary of my algorithm's projected point differentials compared to the opening Vegas line, followed by the same chart using ESPN’s FPI.
Based on these charts, here are my recommended bets for the week to come:
As for upset picks, the following table summarizes my picks
My algorithm and the FPI combined like 10 upsets this week, including Ole Miss over A&M, Syracuse over Pitt, BC over NC State, and K-State over TCU. I should note that I already missed on as UL-Lafayette defeated Arkansas State already.
Finally, my weekly Monte Carlo simulation suggests that we will see a total of 14.6 ± 3.2 upsets, which is the largest number so far this year. 25 of the total 61 games this week have a line at or under 7 points, so it should be a fun and relaxing (for MSU fans) week.
Let's now take a quick spin around the country to see what action might be in store in each conference:
Big Ten
MSU and Nebraska are off, but that still leaves 6 Big Ten conference games this week. Half of them are not expected to be competitive, as they involve Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Rutgers (obviously not for the same reason). The Buckeyes are -27 at Northwestern, Wisconsin is -28.5 at Illinois, and Minnesota is -27.5 at Rutgers. I would not count on any upsets there.
Two of the remaining games look fairly interesting as Indiana (-1) travels to Maryland and Purdue travels to Iowa (-16.5). The Hoosiers are currently on a pretty nice trajectory for a descent bowl game and a pretty nice win total. They are on the road two of the next three weeks but have winnable games each time (at Nebraska followed by vs. Northwestern). The various power rankings suggest that IU is a pretty descent team (I have them at 33 right now). I expect them to win comfortably this week and to run their record to 7-2 before their next bye and final gauntlet where they face Penn State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks. As for Purdue-Iowa, the Hawkeyes should win, but for some reason my upset spidey sense is pinging a little bit here.
That leaves the conference game of the week, which is clearly Michigan's road trip to Penn State for a night game. That line opened at +7.5 for the Wolverines. For what it is worth, my model likes the Nittany Lions by 14.6 and projects a final score of around 31-17. But, I simply don't have any faith in James Franklin, so I could easily see an upset here. I am not predicting it, but it could happen. Then again, Michigan hasn't beaten a Top 10 team on the road since 2006 and a Top 10 Big Ten team on the road since 2003. In 2003, that Top 10 win was actually against an MSU team that finished 8-5 with an Alamo Bowl loss in John L's first year. So, you actually have to go back to last century (1999) to find a comparable win. Interestingly, that was also a win at Penn State. Hmmmmm.
SEC
All 14 SEC teams are in conference action this week, so there is a lot going on. At the top of the conference, things should go smoothly, as Alabama (-34.5) hosts Tennessee, Georgia (-24.5) is hosting Kentucky, Missouri (-21) travels to Vandy, Auburn (-18.5) travels to Arkansas , and LSU (-17.5) travels to Mississippi State. All those games seem safe, but we thought the same thing last week about the South Carolina / Georgia game, right? Interestingly, the math suggests there is actually a 28% chance that one (or more) of those teams gets upset.
The remaining two games are pretty interesting. Last week, South Carolina took out Georgia, and this week they have their sights set on the Gators. The Gamecocks are at home and they are only a 5-point dog. Florida really can't afford to take another loss this week, while a win for the Cocks would put them in good shape to at least play in a Bowl Game.
Speaking of Bowl Games, that also seems to be the stakes for the final SEC game on the schedule, which is Texas A&M at Ole Miss (+5). My calculations have both teams with an expected win total currently south of 6, which means the winner of this game may go bowling, while the loser may not. While Vegas favors A&M, my algorithm like the Rebels in an upset.
Big 12
The Big 12 also has a full slate of conference games with all 10 teams in action. Two of the games should not be close (West Virginia at Oklahoma [-33] and Kansas at Texas [-24]) but the other three games all opened with lines below 6 points. The most interesting one is likely Baylor at Oklahoma State (-2.5). The Bears are current tied with Oklahoma for first place in the league at 3-0 and are trying to stay in the conversation for a shot at the Big 12 Title.
Meanwhile, Iowa State is a game back (having lost to Baylor) and is also vying to stay in the top tier of the conference. The Cyclones (-5.5) travel to Texas Tech this week. Finally, TCU (-2.5) travels to Manhattan to face Kansas State. K-State is entering a danger zone of being home for the holidays and a win here might keep their heads above water.
ACC
For better or worse, the entire ACC is playing as well this week. In the Atlantic Division, Clemson is continuing their slow, drunken stagger to the ACC Title game. This week's victim? Louisville (+22). While the Cardinals are at home, I don't think it will matter.
I guess I will say something nice about the ACC, and that is that at least the Atlantic Division does have some drama remaining as to who will eventually get slaughtered by Clemson in the ACC Title game. Right now, my calculations give Virginia the best odds at 31%, with UNC right there at 30%. Pitt is in 3rd place with 28% odds and Duke is next at only 9%.
This week we will likely see some separation as Duke travels to UVA (-3.5), North Carolina (-3) travels to Virginia Tech, and Pitt (-3.5) travels to Syracuse. With those lines all as tight as they are literally anything could happen.
One final note about the ACC is that despite the fact that Clemson is the only team in the conference that is ranked in the Top 45 of my power rankings (Wake is currently #2 at 49) based on my calculations of total expected wins, a shocking 10 teams from the ACC are projected to finish at 6-6 or above and make a bowl game. That is the highest current count of any of the Power 5 conferences. I honestly have no idea how that is possible.
Pac-12
Out West, Oregon already has a 2-game lead in the North Division and this weekend they can basically score a kill shot if they can beat the Washington Huskies in their own house. The Ducks are a narrow 2-point favorite, but my algorithm (and my eyeballs) tell me that Oregon is going to win by double digits. Also in North, as I am writing this, UCLA has beaten Stanford (-8) in upset fashion so it seems darn near impossible to come up with a scenario where Oregon doesn't win the North if they do beat Washington this weekend.
In the South Division, things are a bit more volatile. Four teams are tied for 1st place at 2-1, while the other two teams are tied for 5th at 1-2. So, the race is still wide, wide open. My current calculations now favor the Utes against as the favorite with 60% odds to make the Pac 12 Title Game, while Arizona State is in 2nd at 25%. Those two teams will square off this weekend in Utah (-13.5) and the winner will become the new favorite in the Division. USC currently has the 3rd best odds at 14% and they will conveniently be facing the only 2-1 South Division team in Arizona. The game will take place in L.A. where the Trojans are a 9-point favorite.
In other action, Washington State (-12.5) is looking for their first conference win vs. Colorado as both teams need a win to bolster their odds of a bowl game. Mean while, Cal (-10.5) hosts Oregon State with the hopes of getting back to their winning ways.
Group of Five
The top of the AAC looks pretty strong this year as a total of six teams have one or fewer losses. That will change this week, however, as 6-0 SMU (-7) hosts 5-1 Temple, and 5-1 Tulane travels to 5-1 Memphis (-4). Meanwhile, the other main contenders, Cincinnati and Navy, are both larger favorites at home against Tulsa (+16) and South Florida (+11.5) respectively.
Some people believe Boise State is the favorite to claim the ticket to the Cotton Bowl, but I am not sure, as I think a 1-loss AAC Champ might trump even an undefeated Boise squad. So, the Broncos would be wise an upset this weekend on the road at the hands of BYU (+6.5).
Other than that, the list of potential Group of Five spoilers is quite small. Appalachian State is still undefeated and hopes to stay that way vs UL Monroe (+16.5). San Diego State has one lose and hopes to stay that way this week at San Jose State (+7). C-USA actually has two 1-loss teams remaining. Louisiana Tech and UAB. LA Tech is actually a 1-point dog at home vs. Southern Miss, while UAB (-15) hosts Old Dominion.
That is all for now. I don't know about you, but I will be trying to follow most of the action this Saturday afternoon on a flight from LAX to Detroit. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green!
Comments
Post a Comment