As October comes to a close and November begins, all in calm in the state of Michigan. In some areas Thursday night, snow started to fall, which was a weird contrast to the gaggles of children wearing Halloween costumes. In East Lansing, it is also calm (except for the Bachie news) as the team and coaching staff settle in for their 2nd week off in the past three. For the 2019 season, this week offers the last chance to rest up, heal up, and scheme up in order to try to make the best of what is left of a once promising season.
It is the calm before the storm.
While the devil on the should of many MSU fans is whispering, "MSU is not strong enough to withstand the storm," you can bet that MSU's coaching are challenging MSU's player to "be the storm". Which is going to wind up being correct? We will all have to wait another week to find out.
Around the county, it is a pretty calm week as well, so I am going to be a bit more brief. Over 25% of the country is on a bye and the remaining action looks a bit tranquil. But, it still bears a bit of analysis.
National Overview
As is my tradition, I have plotted the predictions from both my algorithm and the FPI vs. the opening Vegas line. Those plots are shown below:
Based on these charts, I can recommend the following bets:
It is the calm before the storm.
While the devil on the should of many MSU fans is whispering, "MSU is not strong enough to withstand the storm," you can bet that MSU's coaching are challenging MSU's player to "be the storm". Which is going to wind up being correct? We will all have to wait another week to find out.
Around the county, it is a pretty calm week as well, so I am going to be a bit more brief. Over 25% of the country is on a bye and the remaining action looks a bit tranquil. But, it still bears a bit of analysis.
National Overview
As is my tradition, I have plotted the predictions from both my algorithm and the FPI vs. the opening Vegas line. Those plots are shown below:
Based on these charts, I can recommend the following bets:
My algorithm combined with the FPI only have 6 total bets to recommend. My suggested 2-team parlay would be Notre Dame and Coastal Carolina to both cover. The math likes Illinois and Tennessee to cover also. Ironically, my algorithm likes Utah to cover vs. Washington, while the FPI data says the Huskies will upset the Utes.
As for upset picks, those are summarized below:
Once again I only have 6, most of which are in the Group of Five. The FPI also like Purdue to upset Nebraska. Overall, my Monte Carlo simulation expect 11.8 ± 2.7 upsets, which would be a very peaceful number after the last two weekends.
With that, let's take a nice slow stroll through the college football neighborhood to see if we can find anything interesting.
Big Ten
There is nothing interesting happening in the Big Ten. Seriously. Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, and Minnesota are all on a bye. What remains is a Halloween-style horror show. Rutgers at Illinois (-20)? WHY? Northwestern at Indiana (-12.5)? No, thank you. Nebraska at Purdue (+3)? Please, make it stop. Finally, the "game of the week:" Michigan (-21) at Maryland. No. Just no. I'm out.
(Actually, I should mention that I will be watching the score of the Illinois / Rutgers game. If the Illini cover by a lot, I think that is gong to push the spread for next week's game into the single TD range. We shall see.)
SEC
The SEC is ALMOST as big of a disaster as the Big Ten. Almost. After all, Alabama and LSU are on a bye week, Tennessee (-10) and Texas A&M (-38) are playing Group of Five teams (UAB and UTSA), and three of the conference games feature match up that are not so compelling: Mississippi State (-7) at Arkansas, Mississippi at Auburn (-20), and Vandy at South Carolina (-14). Yawn.
BUT, fortunately we do have the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville this weekend as Georgia (-6.5) squares off against Florida. Based on my calculations, the winner will have at least a 95% chance to win the East, so this is basically a winner-take-all proposition. The East champ will still have a change at a Playoff spot, while the loser will not. So, it's kind of a big deal.
Big 12
Wow, this is also real bad. In this case we have Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa State, and Texas Tech all on a bye. Furthermore, Baylor (-17) at West Virginia looked interesting, but that game was already played on Thursday night and the Bears won in a tighter game than expected. That only leaves two games: Kansas State (-6.5) at Kansas, which I am sure matters to a lot of people... who live in Kansas and TCU at Oklahoma State (-3). Sure, let's all watch a battle of two barely above 500 teams. Go crazy, Big 12.
ACC / Notre Dame
It is a sad, sad week when the ACC is where the "action" is at. Clemson is playing FCS Wofford, so there will be no drama there, but I suppose Wake Forest (-7.5) could basically eliminate themselves from the Atlantic Division race by losing to NC State.
Then, there is the raging dumpster fire that is the Coastal Division, where every single team has either 2 or 3 conference loses. My math suggests that this is a 3-team race right now between Virginia (48%) UNC (25%) and Pitt (22%). Virginia will actually travel to UNC (-2) this weekend so that will certainly bring some clarity. Pitt (-8) visits Georgia Tech and needs to avoid an upset to stay to the race. Finally, Virginia Tech looks like a contender on paper, but my model has their power rankings way down at 103 and gives then only a 1.5% chance to win the division. This week the Hokies travel to Notre Dame (-17) so they can't really do anything to help their case.
Pac 12
The Pac-12 also has four teams (ASU, Cal, Stanford, and Wazou) on a bye this week, but at least they were considerate enough to leave us with some good games. Oregon pretty much already has the North locked up but they have a tricky little road trip to USC (+4.5) this weekend, the Ducks are hanging around with one loss and could conceivably sneak into the playoffs if things break just right around the country. But, that would all go out the window with a loss this weekend. As for USC, they currently are tied with the Utes in the South and hold the tiebreaker, but they have the tougher remaining schedule. They need to win to keep pace.
Meanwhile, Utah has a tricky match-up of their own as they travel to Washington (+1) in what could be a real barn burner (or Starbucks burner, which imagine is the term they use in the Pacific NW). Utah's final three games are UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado, so a win here coupled with a USC loss would essentially be game over for the Trojans.
The other games are not so interesting: Oregon State at Arizona (-7) and Colorado at UCLA (-4). Right now I project that those four teams will play in a combined zero bowl games to close this year.
Group of Five
As it stands now, the eventual AAC Champ seems most likely to make it to the Cotton Bowl and there remain four main competitors. Cincinnati is still the main contender (48% chance to win the AAC in my estimation) and they will likely stay that way with a trip to East Carolina (+23) this week. Navy has a similar challenge at UCONN (+25.5). But the other two teams collide on Saturday night as SMU travels to Memphis (-3). SMU might be able to absorb a loss more easily than Memphis, but which ever team loses has a much steeper path to run.
If for some reason the AAC blows up, Boise State and San Diego State are hanging out in the wings, waiting for their cue. The Bronco are are not expected to by tested at San Jose State (+16.5) while the Aztecs are on a bye. Finally, say goodbye to Appalachian State, who was upset by Georgia Southern on Thursday night. A don't see a 1-loss Sunbelt team making the Cotton Bowl without major upsets in the AAC and MWest taking place. But... it might bear keeping an eye on the UAB at Tennessee (-10) contest. The Blazers have only one-loss and while it would also be a very long shot to make the Cotton Bowl as well, I will still keep half an eye on them if they win.
That is all for now. Enjoy the bye week everyone. Peace out.
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