It is safe to say that this was a fairly slow weekend for college football. Many of the big boys had the week off, and most of the ones that didn't were not in compelling match-ups. There were not that many upsets, and the ones that did occur were pretty minor. Not a whole lot changed in the big picture.
Basically, it felt like being stuck in a holding pattern. Air traffic control has told us to circle for a week. But, don't worry, because the plane's entertainment system is jammed packed with movie classics such as Slow Times at Ridgemont High, all eight of the movies in The Slow and the Mild-Mannered franchise, and the Keanu Reeves flick "Slow" where he and Sandra Bullock try to jump start a bus. Classic.
As for MSU fans, each one feels like a different passenger on that very plane. For all of them, this flight has pretty much sucked this year, with quite a bit of turbulence in the later stages. But, that phase is over and the next one is almost ready to begin. The problem is, nobody knows what that next phase will look like.
Some are optimistic and believe that the plane will land at some warm vacation destination where fun will be back in the air once again. 8-4 is still possible and it would feel pretty darn good. Some feel like the plane will just make a simple landing at home just after a great vacation, but that in front of us is only the boring mediocrity of the every day grind. Still other are pretty sure the plane is going to crash. There is one on every flight.
For now, however, all we can do is wait and look out the window at the scenery from the countryside. Clarity is coming soon.
Big Ten Metrics Update:
After the very bland week that was, here are my updated odds to win the various Big Ten races, as well as the updated expected win totals and trends:
Basically, it felt like being stuck in a holding pattern. Air traffic control has told us to circle for a week. But, don't worry, because the plane's entertainment system is jammed packed with movie classics such as Slow Times at Ridgemont High, all eight of the movies in The Slow and the Mild-Mannered franchise, and the Keanu Reeves flick "Slow" where he and Sandra Bullock try to jump start a bus. Classic.
As for MSU fans, each one feels like a different passenger on that very plane. For all of them, this flight has pretty much sucked this year, with quite a bit of turbulence in the later stages. But, that phase is over and the next one is almost ready to begin. The problem is, nobody knows what that next phase will look like.
Some are optimistic and believe that the plane will land at some warm vacation destination where fun will be back in the air once again. 8-4 is still possible and it would feel pretty darn good. Some feel like the plane will just make a simple landing at home just after a great vacation, but that in front of us is only the boring mediocrity of the every day grind. Still other are pretty sure the plane is going to crash. There is one on every flight.
For now, however, all we can do is wait and look out the window at the scenery from the countryside. Clarity is coming soon.
Big Ten Metrics Update:
After the very bland week that was, here are my updated odds to win the various Big Ten races, as well as the updated expected win totals and trends:
MSU's status remained essentially unchanged by the weekend's activities. MSU's rank rose from 36 to 34, while MSU's expected win total held steady at 6.82.
As for the updated lines, I now have:
- Illinois -9.8
- Michigan +13.9
- Rutgers -31.1
- Maryland -19.1
All of these lines are within a point of where I had them last week. The actual line opened at -13.5 vs. Illinois, which is higher than I expected, but lower than what the FPI was projecting. Let's hope the computer models are right on this one.
As for the odds of each possible remaining records, I now have:
- 8-4: 11%
- 7-5: 62%
- 6-6: 25%
- 5-7: 2%
- 4-8: 1 in 4000
The main difference I see from last week is that MSU's odds to win at Michigan slipped slightly as UofM ranking edged up from 13 to 12, which is a little odd considering that I sure I told my computer about the Notre Dame game this weekend.
As for the rest of the Big Ten, very little changed overall. The East will still almost certainly come down to the winner of the OSU-Penn State game (where I project OSU to be a 15.5-point favorite). In the West, the math still likes Wisconsin (61%) to eventually overtake Minnesota (24%) as well as fend off a challenge from Iowa (15%). The only other real change is that Nebraska is now in pretty big danger of not making a Bowl Game after their loss at Purdue.
Betting and Upset Pick Review
My algorithm had another strong week overall, going 26-21 (55%), bring the year-to-date total to 257-245 (51%). Once again, the FPI did not fare quite as well and only went 23-24 (49%) to bring its total to 241-261 (48%). As for the betting results, I had a very strong weekend in this arena as well, as shown in the table below:
My algorithm got 4 of the 5 picks correct, and the FPI added one more. It was only the Notre Dame game (which ironically gave the strongest signal of a cover) that failed us. This brings my model's picks to 44-31 (59%) for the year and the FPI's picks to 19-13 (59%). Overall, the combined strategy is 60-42 (59%). I will take that.
As for upsets, things were a bit slow. The table below summarizes the results
I count a total of 12 upsets, which was dead on the 11.8 that my simulation predicted. However 10 of those 12 upsets had spreads under 5 points. The biggest upset was Georgia Southern's upset of Appalachian State (-18) which knocked the Mountaineers from the ranks of the undefeated. Oregon State's upset of Arizona and Miami's mild upset of Florida State were also notable.
My algorithm got 3 of its 4 upset picks correct (75%), while the FPI was 3 for 5 (60%). Year-to-date that brings things to 24-28 (46%) for the year for my picks and 18-16 (53%) for the FPI.
National Overview
As is my tradition, the following table summarizes the results of this very slow weekend:
The notable over-achievers for the week were Wake Forest, Oregon, Navy, Mississippi State, and Indiana, while Auburn, Baylor, Notre Dame, and Cincinnati were less than impressive.
While we wait in the air to land, let's take a look out the window at the action (or lack of action) around the country
- Georgia's win over Florida gives them a stranglehold on the SEC East. I now give them a 96% chance to win the Division. Other than that, all the favorites won, so nothing to see here.
- There were also no upsets in the Big 12 this week, so nothing really happened here either. Baylor did struggle a bit with WVU, and their power ranking suffered (19 -> 27 in my system), but this is still looking like an Oklahoma (50%) / Baylor (44%) battle will decide the fate of the Big 12.
- The action in the ACC was a bit more interesting. Not in the Atlantic Division, of course, as Clemson beat FCS Wofford and still has (based on my numbers) a 99% chance to win the Division. But, there were 3 upsets overall and one of them was Virginia (+2) beating UNC which gives them a 1-game lead and an 83% chance in the Division.
- The Pac-12 provided the most interesting action in the nation this week. Oregon started slow, then boat-raced USC to all but clinch the North. Oregon State is literally the only other team that has not been mathematically eliminated. Things got more clear in the South as well, as Utah edged Washington to claim a 1-game lead in South with odds now at 99%.
- In the Group of Five, all eyes were on the AAC. Cincinnati found themselves in a surprising amount of trouble against East Carolina, but they managed to pull things out and stay in the race for the NY6 bid. I give them a 95% chance to make the AAC Title game. In the West, Memphis was able to hand SMU their first loss and now those two teams are tied with Navy in the loss column. Memphis now has the upper hand (52%), being that they have already beaten both of these competitors, but they still will face Cincinnati in the conference finale. Meanwhile Navy has the easier road and for that reason still has reasonable odds (39%) to win the Division. In other news, Appalachian State took a bad conference loss at home to Georgia Southern, and that effectively ends their chance at the NY6.
Finally, here is my updated Top 25 based on my Power Rankings, followed by my updated odds to make the Playoffs. I have only 12 teams left that I think have a non-zero chance:
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Utah
- Wisconsin
- Georgia
- Alabama
- LSU
- Clemson
- Oregon
- Florida
- Auburn
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Iowa
- Navy
- Iowa State
- Washington
- Oklahoma State
- Minnesota
- Washington State
- UCF
- Kansas State
- Memphis
- Notre Dame
- TCU
That brings us to the end of this particular flight. Please stow any carry away luggage, put up your tray tables, and make sure your seats are in their upright and locked positions. We will be on the ground soon. And soon after that, we will know where we are. Look for my Week 11 Preview mid-week. Until than, Go State, Beat the Illini!
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