In my previous post reviewing the results of last week, I
used the analogy that MSU is currently on a plane circling the airport. The
problem is that no one is sure where MSU is going to land. As I think about the
week to come, I think I know where MSU is landing this week. I call it:
“Now or Never” Land.
If MSU is going to salvage this season, it needs to start
now, or it is never going to happen.
Lose this week, and it will be hard to consider the season any level of
success. Sure, beating Michigan and
finishing 7-5 would feel better than losing and finishing (at best) 6-6, but
the turn-around needs to start NOW. Otherwise, we are in danger of this becoming one of those Forgotten Years.
MSU and Illinois are definitely teams that are moving in
opposite directions. MSU has taken three
ugly and painful losses over 5 weeks and somehow found a way to lose both bye
weeks as well. The team is both
physically and emotionally beaten down. Do they still have the Power and Passion to continue? In
contrast, Illinois is on a 3-game winning streak, including a win over a
Wisconsin team than blanked MSU. They are 5-4 while MSU is 4-4. Sure, two of those wins were against Purdue
and Rutgers, but winning is winning and losing ugly is losing ugly.
Also, if I just consider the performance of each team over
their past 3-4 games, Illinois grades out in my power rankings to be roughly a
Top 20 team, while MSU grades out more like a Top 60 team. If that doesn’t
scare you a little, well, it probably should.
But, does just the performance over the past 4 games really define who a
team is, or are we simply seeing a statistical fluctuation? It is probably both, honestly. The key question is which version of this
analysis is closer to reality.
If I go through my standard analysis, which includes the
full season of data, MSU projects to be 10 points better than Illinois in
Spartan Stadium. As such, I project a
31-21 win for the Spartans. Wouldn’t
that be nice? The S&P+ projection is
about the same. The FPI actually likes
MSU by 16. Based on the opening spread
of -11, MSU has a 78% chance to win. Interestingly, the line has moved in MSU’s
direction through the week, as the FPI perhaps suggests that it should. As much as I like to dog the FPI, it does do
a great job of projecting what the spread will be.
But, if I look at the intangibles, I am a bit nervous. Illinois played several games without their
starting QB, former Michigan Savior, Branden Peters.
It stands to reason that Illinois is a little better than their season
averaged data would suggest. As for MSU,
they will be taking the field with their best LB and best WR. That’s bad. It stands to reason that MSU is a
little worse than the season average might suggest. I do not expect MSU to cover the spread this
week, for these reasons.
That said, since I am Dr. Optimism, and I have yet another analogy for you. For the last 3 games,
MSU has been trying to dead-light some pretty huge weights. They started with the heaviest weight in the
gym, and looked OK trying it for a while. The next week, they tried a slightly lighter
weight, but due to fatigue, they couldn’t move it at all. They then had a rest day and tried a similar
weight, but also failed miserably. Now,
after another rest day, MSU will try to lift a much lighter weight. It is possible that by contrast, the new
weight will seem so light by comparison to the past weeks that it will almost
seem easy, even with some fatigue. But,
there is also the chance that MSU is still so fatigued that almost any weight
is too much. We won’t know until Saturday.
One thing is for sure, and that is the MSU coaches and
players are burning the Midnight Oil trying to figure all of this out. Sometimes you’re taken to the wall. Sometimes you’re shaken to the core. But, you don’t give in. I still believe in this team.
National Overview
As is my tradition, here are my projected point differentials
for the week compared to the opening Vegas line. Following that is the same figure using the
FPI.
Based on this data, I only have three recommend bets for the
week, all from my algorithm. That table
is shown below. The only one involving
two Power Five teams is for Ohio State to cover the 42-point spread vs.
Maryland (I have them winning by 60). I would use that pick along
with FAU to cover vs. FIU as the parlay of the week.
As for upset picks, I have five total, most of which again
come from my algorithm. The
most notable picks are Tennessee to upset Kentucky and Arizona State to upset
USC. My boldest pick of the week was
Kent State to upset Toledo, which didn’t happen (Toledo beat Kent 35-33 on
Tuesday night). But, Kent at least
covered, so I have that going for me. The
full table is shown below.
Finally, my Monte Carlo
simulation of the week’s action suggests that we will see 12.1 ± 2.8 upsets total, which is
similar to last week and a pretty low number.
With that, let’s now take a quick flight around the country
to see where the action is at
Big Ten
There are five total games on the Big Ten slate this week
and all but one of them looks pretty interesting. The non-interesting one is Maryland at Ohio
State (-42), a game so bad that my algorithm is giving a strong signal that OSU
will cover. The Purdue (-2) at Northwestern game has essentially no impact on
anything (neither team is even likely to make a Bowl) but at least it is
supposed to be close. We have already
discussed the impact of Illinois at MSU (-11) from the Spartans point-of-view,
but it should also be mentioned that an Illini upset would qualify them for a
Bowl.
The remaining two games will have a big impact on the race
for the Big Ten West. Minnesota
currently holds a 2-game lead in the West and controls their own destiny. I currently have the Gophers at 19 in my
power rankings. The problem is that they
have three games left against teams ranked higher than that and I don’t have
them favored in any of them. The first
and biggest test is this week as the Nittany Lions come to town as 6-point
favorites. A Minnesota loss does not
actually hurt them that much, as they could still beat both Iowa and Wisconsin,
but a win would legitimize Minnesota as a real player on the national stage, at
least for now. The Gopher Dreamworld would continue for at least another week. A Penn State loss would
be bad for their Playoff hopes, but they have Ohio State left on the schedule
and control their own destiny as well.
Huh, I basically talked myself into the idea that the PSU-Minnesota game
is not an important as I thought.
That said, the remaining game: Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5) is
basically a Big Ten West elimination game.
The loser will have 3 conference losses and that will not get the job
down. The winner will move into a 2-team
race with the Gophers down the home stretch for a ticket to Indy.
SEC
There are 7 total games on the SEC schedule this week, but
let’s be honest: only one actually matters.
Based on the new Playoff Rankings issued this week #2 LSU faces #3
Alabama (-6) and the winner will be the King of Mountain in the SEC West. Based on the math, Bama has a 66% chance to
win. My gut tells me, however, that LSU
wins, which might just wind up being a watershed moment in SEC history. The winner will almost certainly face Georgia
in the SEC title game for a playoff spot.
The only question is if the loser of this game will also earn a playoff
spot as well. At this point, that seems likely,
assuming they win out.
By comparison, the other 6 games are garbage, even if some
of the lines are close. In three cases, a Group of Five team is involved, and
there is actually a fair chance for an embarrassing loss. Ole Miss (-28.5) should obviously handle New
Mexico State, but I am not so sure about Arkansas (-2.5) hosting Western
Kentucky or South Carolina (-4) hosting App State.
In conference play, Florida (-24) is likely to sink Vandy. and
Tennessee at Kentucky (-2.5) looks to be close. The remaining game on paper
looks pretty benign as Missouri (-16.5) is a big underdog at Georgia and has
looked absolutely terrible on the road this year. However, the Tigers are only a game back in
the loss column actually still control their own destiny. If they win out, they still win the East. IF the Tigers pull a big upset, they then get
to host Florida the following week. Their
remaining opponent are Tennessee and Arkansas.
Although this scenario is VERY unlikely, it is worth keeping an eye on this score.
Big 12
As I look at the Big 12 race, I have the feeling that there
are more twists and turns to come in the next four weeks. Right now, it looks like a 2-team race
between Baylor and Oklahoma, but this week’s action could potentially shake
things up. For Oklahoma, they are
hosting Iowa State (+13) and are a healthy favorite. But if the Sooners were to
lose, they would suddenly be even in the loss column with two teams that beat
them (ISU and KSU). Oklahoma also still
needs to play TCU, Baylor, and rival Oklahoma State on the road. I suddenly doubt that they can run the table
with that schedule.
As for Baylor, they are still undefeated, but their next
three games are no picnic either. This
week they draw TCU on the road. The game
opened as a pick’em and it looks like the Bears are now a narrow favorite. Oklahoma and Texas loom in the next two
weeks. Again, I doubt they win all three,
but they do have a 1-game cushion.
Texas and K-State both have two conference losses, but after
this week, one team will have 3 and be out of the chase. The Longhorns opened
as 5-point favorites at home. The
remaining game (Texas Tech at WVU) is an meaningless game that opened as a
pick’em as well.
ACC
I am not sure why I am even still trying to treat the ACC
with respect, but here goes. Clemson
(-30) is a huge favorite at NC State, but that game has no bearing on the
Atlantic Division race. Pretty much the
only thing that could go wrong for Clemson is if Wake Forest were to win out
(including a highly improbable win over Clemson in two weeks). Wake (-2.5) travels to VA Tech this week and
could just as easily take themselves out of contention.
In the Coastal Division, the comedy of errors continues, but
it is mercifully almost over. Virginia
looks like they will be deemed the least incompetent and they can strengthen
this claim this week by beating Georgia Tech (+17). Pitt is still technically in play, but they
are on a bye. VA Tech, as mentioned above, really should beat Wake if they want
to stay relevant. The only other team of
note is Miami, who still has a shot (based on my calculations). The Canes (-5) host Louisville.
Pac-12
Last week’s action brought a lot of clarity to the
Pac-12. Based on my calculations, an
Oregon-Utah match-up for the title is almost a lock. But, my algorithm may have an inflated
opinion of the Utes (currently #3! In my power rankings) so I don’t quite trust
this 100%. As it tuns out, both those
teams are on a bye this week, which leaves the remaining games with an air of
meaninglessness.
If USC wants to hold out hope to catch Utah, they are going
to need to beat Arizona State (+1) in the desert this week. Other than that,
teams are just vying for bowl position.
Cal is hosting Washington State (-7) and they are going to need to find
2 more wins to get to 6. Oregon State
hosts Washington (-9.5) and is in the same boat as Cal. Finally, Colorado will
take a 7th loss and be home for the holidays if that can’t upset
Stanford (-3.5) at home.
Group of Five
When the initial College Football Playoff rankings came out
this week, six Group of Five teams appeared ranked 17 to 25. All six of those teams are ones that I have been
talking about for weeks, and all six are in either the AAC or Mountain
West. One key point is that in order to
be eligible for the NY6, the team HAS to be the league champion. So, by the final ballot, there really only
will be two teams left with a shot, and right now the eventual AAC champ is in
the pole position.
As for this week, don’t expect much change in the AAC
race. Navy and Memphis are on a bye,
while both Cincinnati and SMU are huge favorites (-34.5 vs. UCONN and -23 vs.
East Carolina, respectively). As for the Mountain West, Boise State hosts
Wyoming (+11.5) which could be trouble, while San Diego State (-16.5) should be
safe vs. Nevada.
Is there any other team that might be able to crash the
party? LA Tech still only has one loss,
but I don’t see any path for them.
Appalachian State took a bad loss last week, but if they beat South
Carolina (-4), maybe it could happen?
That is all for now, until next time, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Illini!
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