Here we are in Week 13. Things have not exactly gone to plan. But, here we are. MSU is 4-6 and is on a 5-game losing streak (or 7, if you count the bye weeks). There are still two weeks left in the season and I say let's try to make the best of them. The Show Must Go On.
Fortunately, I have good news. The opponent this week is none other than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, the "pride" of Piscataway, NJ. If you have not heard of them, they are, in a word, bad. How bad are they? In my current power rankings, they are #121 out of 130. They are slightly better than UCONN and not quite a good as Old Dominion. They are the worst of all the of Power 5 teams. The closest team in terms of "badness" that MSU has faced this year is Northwestern, who I now rank #109. May I remind you that MSU beat Northwestern on the road by 21 points this year. Rutgers has only won 2 games so far, one over UMASS (ranked #129) and one over Liberty (ranked #114). My data suggest the Scarlet Knight were a bit lucky in their win over Liberty.
As for more specific stats, Rutgers has a very bad offense. On a per play basis, they rank #126 out of #130. That is even worse than a certain Big Ten team from East Lansing who will remain anonymous. As for their defense, it is a little better. It ranks #113th. The next worst defense that MSU has faced all year was Western Michigan, who is ranked 87th. MSU put up 51 points on WMU. Incidentally, despite the recent problems, MSU's defense is still in the Top 30 in yards allowed per play.
In other words, there is hope for victory. Vegas agrees. Based on the source that I use, MSU opened as a 20-point favorite this weekend, which translates into a 92% chance of victory. The bad news is that there have already been 6 upsets of this magnitude or largest this year. NO. WAIT. Go back and read the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs again. Let's try to think happy thoughts this week... OK? Good. Where was I? As for my algorithm, it likes MSU by a few more point: 23.9 to be exact. The FPI is not too far from that at 21.9. So, believe it or not, I actually have MSU covering this week. I project a final score of roughly 38-13.
That said, this week's game will be a barometer for the mental state of MSU's team right now. All things being equal, MSU should win this one easily. But, football is ultimately a game played by 18-22 year old kids, and not by computer-generated avatars. This group has been through a lot in the last 7 weeks, no matter the root cause. The team is both mentally and physically pretty beat up. It is hard to say how that will manifest itself. Oddly, I think it might be good that this is a road game. It is better to try to find a little success on the road before coming back home to a crowd of cranky Spartan fans.
But, if I add everything up, I believe that MSU is going to be able to put on a bit of a Show this week that I believe MSU fans will be happy with. Win this weekend and then come home after Thanksgiving with something to play for: a bowl game, even if it is only a hour or so drive away. If MSU can't get the job down, next weekend will be Curtains. I may be in the minority, but I am not quite ready to say goodbye to MSU Football for the season just yet, no matter how things may have turned out so far.
National Overview
Per my weekly tradition, I have plotted the projected point differentials from both my algorithm and ESPN's FPI compared to the opening Vegas lines. Those plots are shown below:
Based on this data, I can recommend four total bets against the spread, based on a combination of the predictions of my algorithm and the FPI. Those bets are shown here:
ACC
The ACC continues to be a source of constant disappointment. Clemson is on a bye and has completed their conference slate, so attention turns to the horror show that is the Coastal Division. Current leader Virginia (-19) is playing dumpster fire incarnate, Liberty, while the only other two schools in the race, Virginia Tech and Pitt, face each other. The Hokies (-2.5) are a narrow favorite at home and can eliminate Pitt with a win and force a winner-take-all match-up with the Cavaliers next weekend.
If Pitt wins, the Panther would need to beat Boston College next week and cheer for Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in order to win the Division. If somehow Pitt beats Virginia Tech but loses to B.C. and then VA Tech beats Virginia.... then all three teams are tied, likely with Miami, with 3-losses. I am not sure what happens in this scenario, but I am guessing Clemson just automatically wins the ACC and the Coastal Division as a whole gets shot into the sun.
Pac 12
Out West this week, Oregon is on cruise control having already locked up the North, but they are still holding out hope for a playoff berth if they can run the table. Auburn beating Alabama next week would certainly help their cause. As for things that the Ducks can control, they travel to the desert this week to face Arizona State (+14) in a contest designed only to further depress MSU's strength of schedule.
In the South, Utah is still in the driver's seat, but they need to keep winning. They will also be traveling to the desert this week to play Arizona (-21), which looks to be a "W." Meanwhile, in California, USC (-12.5) hosts UCLA to wrap up their regular season. They still own a tiebreaker with Utah, and with a win they will take the South if the Utes stumble in the final two weeks.
Other than that, it seems like the entire remainder of the conference has either 5 or 6 losses and is in danger of missing out on a bowl. Oregon State travel to Washington State (-12.5) and the winner will get to 6 wins. Cal visits Stanford (-3) for The Game, and an upset win by the Golden Bears would clinch a bowl for Cal, but sink Stanford with 7 losses. Washington is already at 6 wins, and they can eliminate Colorado (+13) from bowl contention with a win in Boulder.
Group of Five
It is hard to believe, but with only two weeks left, the Group of Five Champion and especially the AAC Champion is still quite up in the air. In the East, Cincinnati has a two game lead with two games remaining, but neither of them are easy. This week, the Bearcats host Temple (+10) and can lock up the Division with a win. If they lose, they must win at Memphis next week. If they lose both, Temple and/or UCF could force a tie which could get super messy (it looks like computer polls might get involved to break a potential 3-way tie). In any event, a 3-loss Bearcat team would not get invited to the Cotton Bowl.
In the AAC West, three teams are also still in play. Two of them (SMU and Navy) square off with Navy (-2.5) as the narrow favorite. Memphis, though, holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over both but has a tricky road test at South Florida (+14). As stated above, Cincinnati looms, which will give the Navy-SMU winner a solid chance to win the West.
While the AAC beats up on each other, Boise State and Appalachian State are just waiting in the wings to see if they can slip into the Cotton Bowl. The Broncos (-7.5) travel to Utah State this week, which could certainly get tricky, while App State (-28) should have an easy time with Texas State.
Fortunately, I have good news. The opponent this week is none other than the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, the "pride" of Piscataway, NJ. If you have not heard of them, they are, in a word, bad. How bad are they? In my current power rankings, they are #121 out of 130. They are slightly better than UCONN and not quite a good as Old Dominion. They are the worst of all the of Power 5 teams. The closest team in terms of "badness" that MSU has faced this year is Northwestern, who I now rank #109. May I remind you that MSU beat Northwestern on the road by 21 points this year. Rutgers has only won 2 games so far, one over UMASS (ranked #129) and one over Liberty (ranked #114). My data suggest the Scarlet Knight were a bit lucky in their win over Liberty.
As for more specific stats, Rutgers has a very bad offense. On a per play basis, they rank #126 out of #130. That is even worse than a certain Big Ten team from East Lansing who will remain anonymous. As for their defense, it is a little better. It ranks #113th. The next worst defense that MSU has faced all year was Western Michigan, who is ranked 87th. MSU put up 51 points on WMU. Incidentally, despite the recent problems, MSU's defense is still in the Top 30 in yards allowed per play.
In other words, there is hope for victory. Vegas agrees. Based on the source that I use, MSU opened as a 20-point favorite this weekend, which translates into a 92% chance of victory. The bad news is that there have already been 6 upsets of this magnitude or largest this year. NO. WAIT. Go back and read the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs again. Let's try to think happy thoughts this week... OK? Good. Where was I? As for my algorithm, it likes MSU by a few more point: 23.9 to be exact. The FPI is not too far from that at 21.9. So, believe it or not, I actually have MSU covering this week. I project a final score of roughly 38-13.
That said, this week's game will be a barometer for the mental state of MSU's team right now. All things being equal, MSU should win this one easily. But, football is ultimately a game played by 18-22 year old kids, and not by computer-generated avatars. This group has been through a lot in the last 7 weeks, no matter the root cause. The team is both mentally and physically pretty beat up. It is hard to say how that will manifest itself. Oddly, I think it might be good that this is a road game. It is better to try to find a little success on the road before coming back home to a crowd of cranky Spartan fans.
But, if I add everything up, I believe that MSU is going to be able to put on a bit of a Show this week that I believe MSU fans will be happy with. Win this weekend and then come home after Thanksgiving with something to play for: a bowl game, even if it is only a hour or so drive away. If MSU can't get the job down, next weekend will be Curtains. I may be in the minority, but I am not quite ready to say goodbye to MSU Football for the season just yet, no matter how things may have turned out so far.
National Overview
Per my weekly tradition, I have plotted the projected point differentials from both my algorithm and ESPN's FPI compared to the opening Vegas lines. Those plots are shown below:
Based on this data, I can recommend four total bets against the spread, based on a combination of the predictions of my algorithm and the FPI. Those bets are shown here:
Unfortunately, the Miami / Akron game already took place on Wednesday night and the Redhawks only won by 3, not over 30. So, I am already off to an 0 and 1 start for the week. Hopefully the other three games will treat me more kindly.
As for upsets, I have four of those to recommend as well, and interestingly, the FPI agrees with three of them. The most notable of the bunch are Maryland over Nebraska and NC State over Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech managed to beat NC State Thursday night... so I am not off to a great start.
Finally, my Monte Carlo simulation of the week's action suggest that we will see 13.7 ± 3.1 upset this week, which is one of the larger numbers that I have seen so far this year. So, it looks like some of the underdogs might be putting on a bit of a Show as well this week.
Now, let's take a quick spin around the country to catch up on all the action in this penultimate week of the college football regular season.
Big Ten
The story line in the Big Ten this weekend is very, very simple. The winner of the Penn State at Ohio State (-18) game is going to Indy. Based on that spread, there is a 90% chance that the Buckeye win. The crazy thing is that while Ohio State is #1 in my current power rankings, Penn State is 5th, yet the spread is almost 3 TDs.
As for the rest of the conference, the rest of the action is pretty dull, as only one game has a spread under a TD, and that is Nebraska at Maryland (+4.5) and neither of those teams are likely to play in the post-season. Purdue at Wisconsin (-21.5) is not going to be good football. Could Minnesota (-12) at Northwestern get interesting? I doubt it. Illinois at Iowa (-12)? Well, I guess the Illini have pulled something similar off twice already. Michigan at Indiana (-8)? Objectively, this looks like a trap game for Michigan, and Indiana seems to always give them fits… they just never actually win. Considering the football gods seem to hate us and don’t want us to have nice things, I am not sure why that is going to change… That said, “Go Hoosiers.”
SEC
I did not specifically realize this until I ran the numbers, but the SEC divisional races are officially over. LSU and Georgia WILL face off in the SEC title game, so everyone else is simply jockeying for bowl position. Even so, eight of the 14 conference members are either on a bye or playing an FCS opponent this week. That leaves only 3 conference games, one of which is Arkansas at LSU (-43.5). In the remaining two we have Texas A&M at Georgia (-14) and Tennessee at Missouri (-4).
Georgia is interesting because the SEC Title game is likely a Playoff play-in game no matter what happens, but a 2-loss team has never made it, so a loss would not be recommended. As for Tennessee and Missouri, the winner will get to 6 wins, but the loser will likely get their next week, as they face Vanderbilt and Arkansas, respectively.
Big 12
Considering that the SEC is basically taking the week off, it is nice that the Big 12 actually has some pretty interesting action. Baylor and Oklahoma are both sitting two games ahead of the field with 2 games left, so both team just need to avoid losing twice and they are in the Big 12 Title game. Baylor has a tough test list week as host to Texas (+3.5), but the Bears draw Kansas next, so they are a virtual shoe-in for the title game. Oklahoma (-17) hosts TCU this weekend and can punch their ticket to the Title Game with a win. However, if they lose, things get interesting.
Next week, the Sooners travel to rival Oklahoma State and I am only projecting that spread to be around 4 points. So, collars will be pretty tight in Norman if they lose this week. If the Sooners were to drop two in a row, there could be up to four teams tied for 2nd (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas) and I have not bothered to try to figure out the various tie-breakers. The Cowboys (-7) travel to West Virginia this weekend, while the Cyclones (-22.5) host Kansas. Iowa State travels to Kansas State next week where they will likely be a narrow favorite. So, mass chaos is at least still possible. I am rooting for chaos. Chaos is fun as long as my team is not involved.
ACC
The ACC continues to be a source of constant disappointment. Clemson is on a bye and has completed their conference slate, so attention turns to the horror show that is the Coastal Division. Current leader Virginia (-19) is playing dumpster fire incarnate, Liberty, while the only other two schools in the race, Virginia Tech and Pitt, face each other. The Hokies (-2.5) are a narrow favorite at home and can eliminate Pitt with a win and force a winner-take-all match-up with the Cavaliers next weekend.
If Pitt wins, the Panther would need to beat Boston College next week and cheer for Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in order to win the Division. If somehow Pitt beats Virginia Tech but loses to B.C. and then VA Tech beats Virginia.... then all three teams are tied, likely with Miami, with 3-losses. I am not sure what happens in this scenario, but I am guessing Clemson just automatically wins the ACC and the Coastal Division as a whole gets shot into the sun.
Pac 12
Out West this week, Oregon is on cruise control having already locked up the North, but they are still holding out hope for a playoff berth if they can run the table. Auburn beating Alabama next week would certainly help their cause. As for things that the Ducks can control, they travel to the desert this week to face Arizona State (+14) in a contest designed only to further depress MSU's strength of schedule.
In the South, Utah is still in the driver's seat, but they need to keep winning. They will also be traveling to the desert this week to play Arizona (-21), which looks to be a "W." Meanwhile, in California, USC (-12.5) hosts UCLA to wrap up their regular season. They still own a tiebreaker with Utah, and with a win they will take the South if the Utes stumble in the final two weeks.
Other than that, it seems like the entire remainder of the conference has either 5 or 6 losses and is in danger of missing out on a bowl. Oregon State travel to Washington State (-12.5) and the winner will get to 6 wins. Cal visits Stanford (-3) for The Game, and an upset win by the Golden Bears would clinch a bowl for Cal, but sink Stanford with 7 losses. Washington is already at 6 wins, and they can eliminate Colorado (+13) from bowl contention with a win in Boulder.
Group of Five
It is hard to believe, but with only two weeks left, the Group of Five Champion and especially the AAC Champion is still quite up in the air. In the East, Cincinnati has a two game lead with two games remaining, but neither of them are easy. This week, the Bearcats host Temple (+10) and can lock up the Division with a win. If they lose, they must win at Memphis next week. If they lose both, Temple and/or UCF could force a tie which could get super messy (it looks like computer polls might get involved to break a potential 3-way tie). In any event, a 3-loss Bearcat team would not get invited to the Cotton Bowl.
In the AAC West, three teams are also still in play. Two of them (SMU and Navy) square off with Navy (-2.5) as the narrow favorite. Memphis, though, holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over both but has a tricky road test at South Florida (+14). As stated above, Cincinnati looms, which will give the Navy-SMU winner a solid chance to win the West.
While the AAC beats up on each other, Boise State and Appalachian State are just waiting in the wings to see if they can slip into the Cotton Bowl. The Broncos (-7.5) travel to Utah State this week, which could certainly get tricky, while App State (-28) should have an easy time with Texas State.
That is all for now, hopefully things are looking up. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, Beat Rutgers!
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