2019 Week 13 Recap: All's Well That Ends Well

Good news everyone! MSU once again won a football game! It may not seem like a huge accomplishment, and let's be honest, it's not.  But still, winning feels a heck of a lot better than losing.  It wasn't easy, however.  For large stretches of that game, it felt like MSU was one or two  disastrous plays away the danger zone once again, for all of the same reasons that put MSU into this position in the first place.  When four of your first eight possession end in a turnover on downs (twice), a missed FG, and an interception in the end-zone, things are not exactly going well.  It was a story that we had all seen before and it has not ended well.  The History of this season has had so much Tragedy and it was almost Comedy. MSU fans essentially have to run the full gambit of emotions just to get through a single 3.5 hour game.

But, All's Well That Ends Well. As I look at the final box score... it's fine.  MSU got a shut-out win, covered the spread, and out-gained Rutgers by over 250 yards.  MSU only punted twice the entire game, while Rutgers only had 2 possessions of over 4 plays.  I don't care if Rutgers is one of the worst Power 5 teams in the history of time. Who cares.  MSU won, and they won big, and I am happy about it, even if it was a bit of a Problem Play.  Now, let's never speak of this game again...

Looking ahead, things are pretty simple. MSU gets to host Maryland next week on Senior Day for a shot to get to 6-6 and practice together for a few more weeks.  Saturday night, I projected the spread to be MSU -19.3.  It seems to have opened at around -17.5 and in some places now seems to be over 20 points.  These numbers all suggest that MSU has right around a 90% chance to beat Maryland and make a bowl game.

If an MSU win does come to pass, MSU will likely be the only 6-6 Big Ten team, and based on the overall landscape, the Quick Lane Bowl seems like the most likely destination.  Right now, Florida State or North Carolina (assuming they beat NC State next weekend) seem like the most likely opponent. 

A few things could disrupt that, however.  If UNC loses, the ACC does not look to have enough teams to fill their spots, and the Quick Lane Bowl would fall to the MAC.  Based on MSU's recent and near future MAC opponents, I personally think that Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, or Miami (OH) would be the likely candidates.  Alternatively, if the Big Ten can get 3 teams into the NY6 Bowls, MSU would likely slide up to the Pinstripe Bowl to face a team such as Louisville.  All will become clear in due time. Worrying about it now, on some level, is simply Much Ado About Nothing.

Big Ten Metrics Update

This time of year my metrics tables are not as useful, as most conference races are all but over and my playoff formulas are no longer completely applicable.  But, for old times sake, here are the updated odds and expected win tables, followed by the weekly trend in conference expected wins for each Division:

Ohio State's win over Penn State secured the Big Ten East title and officially punched their ticket to Indy.  So, for what seems like roughly the 14th time in 15 years or so, the result of the Michigan-Ohio Sate game next week is completely meaningless to the Big Ten race.  

On the other side of the conference, the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe will decide Ohio State's opponent.  My math likes Wisconsin by slightly over a touchdown (thus with a ~70% chance to win), while the early Vegas line is between 2 and 4 points (more like 60%).  Either way, Ohio State is predicted to be a big favorite in Indy, and thus I project an 85% chance the Buckeyes will once again claim the Big Ten Title.  

The only open question is if Ohio State would still claim a Playoff spot if they were to lose on the road in Ann Arobr, yet win the Big Ten Championship Game.  I tend to think that they would. Ultimately, "the Game," is simply "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Betting and Upset Pick Review

Similar to the Buckeyes, my algorithm overall is also on a bit of a hot streak. For the 5th straight week, it once again was over 55% against the spread, going 32-26 (55%) which brings my totals for the year up to 344-315 (52.2%).  Also for the 5th straight week, ESPN's FPI was below 500, going only 28-30 (48%) and bringing its YTD total to 312-347 (47%).  

As for my recommended bets, that did not go quite as well.  For the first time all season, I went 0-fer, but on low volume (only 2).  The FPI hit one of its two bets for 50%.  The summary is shown below:

Year-to-date, this brings my totals to 49-34 (59%) and the FPI's totals to 20-14 (59%).  The combined strategy now sits at 66-46 (59%).  

As for upsets, the computers' performance were also a bit underwhelming.  My algorithm and the FPI agreed on three total upsets, none of which came to pass, although I did pick up one lone correct pick as Western Kentucky took out Southern Miss.  The upset are summarized below:

For the season, my algorithm's upset picks are now 29-34 (46%), while the very conservative FPI is 19-18 (51%).  Overall, the total number of observed upsets (13) was right as expected based on my simulation (13.7) with the biggest upsets of the week being FIU's hilarious upset of Miami (-17.5) and three late update West Coast upsets where Oregon, Washington, and Fresno State all fell as 10+ point favorites.  

National Overview

The overall results of Week 13's action are shown in the chart below:

As always, the chart give a feel for the teams that over-achieved this week (such as Nebraska, Memphis, Boise State, Ohio, Louisiana-Lafayette, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Michigan) and the teams that did not (basically, all the teams that were upset, plus Miami of Ohio).

Now, let's take a quick look around the country with some quick hot takes:

• The SEC was in general pretty calm, as most of the conference took the week off to finish off any remaining cupcakes still left in the kitchen.  Georgia managed to escape a costly upset at the hands of Texas A&M, while Tennessee managed to gain bowl eligibility with a win over Missouri.
• The story was similar in the Big 12. All of the favorites won, and the Big 12 Championship is now set.  Baylor will get another shot to beat Oklahoma in two weeks. If both teams can avoid a Week 14 upset, the winner of the Title Game will have a shot at potentially slipping into the Playoffs.
• In the ACC, which I think may want to consider officially changing its abbreviation to "LOL," it was also a slow week.  Well, I suppose that Virginia Tech beating Pitt was a big deal, as now next week's Virginia / Virginia Tech game is officially a winner-take-all opportunity to get embarrassed by Clemson on national television.  It will also be interesting to see how the powers that be will select the ACC participant for the Orange Bowl considering none of the contenders will be ranked and the options will be either a 4-loss team from Virginia or a 3-loss Wake Forest team that lost to Clemson by 49 points.  
• Once again, the PAC-12 proved that if you leave them alone without adult supervision late at night, they will get into trouble.  Half of the conference games ended up in upsets, as Oregon, Washington, and Stanford all went down. Those losses are a bit costly, as Oregon's hopes to sneak into the playoffs are pretty much over, as is Stanford's hopes to make a Bowl Game.  USC and Utah won, however, and USC is in the clubhouse, which will force Utah to beat Colorado next weekend to claim the South Title.  
• In Group of Five action, both Cincinnati and Memphis won to run their records to 10-1, while Navy took out SMU. This sets up a very interesting final weekend, where Memphis needs to either beat Cincinnati or hope Navy drops a game to Houston in order to secure a rematch with Cincinnati in the AAC Title game.  If the eventual AAC champ winds up with 2 or more losses, Boise State and Appalachian State are still hanging around, hoping to score on the rebound.

Finally, here are my updated Top 25 Power Rankings

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Utah
4. Clemson
5. Alabama
6. Penn State
7. Wisconsin
8. Michigan
9. LSU
10. Florida
11. Oregon
12. Auburn
13. Iowa
14. Notre Dame
15. Oklahoma
16. Baylor
17. Minnesota
18. Iowa State
19. Memphis
20. Texas A&M
21. Washington
22. Navy
23. Oklahoma State
24. USC
25. TCU

You are correct, some of this looks really odd. How is Georgia #2 and LSU #9?  How is 6-5 Washington #21?  All I can say is "it's just math."  But, sometimes the math is ahead of the eye test. The fact that I have Utah at #3 does make we wonder if the Utes deserve a shot in the Playoffs if they can win the Pac-12. 

That will do it for this penultimate week of the college football regular season.  Enjoy the Thanksgiving Holiday, and as always, Go State, Beat the Terrapins.