One thing should be clear to everyone by now. I am an optimist. So, at the beginning of the year, I was pretty confident that this season was going to turn out to be good, if not special. All the pieces seemed to be there. MSU had a lot of seniors, including at the QB position. The defense looks like it was going to be lights out, and I was optimistic about the new offense. The preseason ranking of around 16 seemed about right. If nothing else, it seemed like MSU was due to have some good luck, both with injuries and otherwise.
As I looked at the schedule back in August, a 9-3 season seemed very reasonable, with a 10-2 record doable with some good bounces. My mathematical analysis of the season agreed. It gave MSU a 40% chance to get to 9 wins or more and only a 18% chance of winning 6 games or less. So, at this point in the season, I was expecting to be preparing for a nice relaxing Grand-Finale-senior-day-blowout win to push the record to 9 or 10 wins. After that, I was hoping to be able to sneak into a NY6 Bowl (preferably the Orange Bowl in my scenario, which would have also been an easy win and would have give Coach D a win in half of the current NY6 Bowls).
That was my dreamy, optimistic scenario back in August. Alas, it was not meant to be.
So, instead, MSU is sitting at 5-6 and needs to beat a struggling Maryland squad in order to simply buy a few more weeks of practice and a bus trip to Detroit (most likely) the day after Christmas. Oh, joy. It is not exactly the Grand Finale that I was hoping for.
There is not much that needs to be said about the game. MSU opened as a 20.5 point favorite, based on my source, which is slightly higher than my spreadsheet predicted (19.3) and the FPI predicted (18.4). So, the computers don't like MSU to cover, but it should be close. In fact, I project a final score of 37-17. I would certainly take that.
If nothing else, in good seasons and in bad, those of us with season tickets only have a few Football Saturdays a year. Those are rare occasions we can wander campus with a beer in hand, see old friends, watch the band march by, and finally, stream into Spartan Stadium en-mass. It is a special place where we get to gather together to watch a bunch of 18-22 year old kids play a game that they love.
Those kids might look a lot different than you and me, and they might come from a very different place. But, they will be be wearing green and white, and so will we... those beautiful colors... some might say, The Only Colors. On some level, it binds us together and in a way, I think that makes us family.
So, I will be there on Saturday. A little rain or snow is not going to scare me away, nor we a few empty seats purchased at bargain basement prices by the Idiot Army of Washtenaw County. I am going to go and cheer and likely shed a tear or two for the Seniors when they take the field with their families. Win or lose, those kids have sacrificed a lot over 4-5 years and have busted their butts on those few special fall Saturdays, in part to ensure that I simply had a pleasant Saturday evening and Sunday morning. It is noble, in its own way.
After the finale of the game, I hope to sing the Victory For MSU along with the team and those students that remain... one more time. Time and family. Both are precious. Go Green.
National Overview
For the final time this regular season, I present the projected point differentials from both my model and ESPN's FPI as a function of the Vegas Line.
Based on these plots, I only have three bets that I recommend for the week: Penn State and Oregon to cover as favorites, and Bowling Green to cover as the underdog. At least none of those games has been played yet, so that's a win. Only the Penn State cover is from my algorithm, while the other two picks are from the FPI.
As I looked at the schedule back in August, a 9-3 season seemed very reasonable, with a 10-2 record doable with some good bounces. My mathematical analysis of the season agreed. It gave MSU a 40% chance to get to 9 wins or more and only a 18% chance of winning 6 games or less. So, at this point in the season, I was expecting to be preparing for a nice relaxing Grand-Finale-senior-day-blowout win to push the record to 9 or 10 wins. After that, I was hoping to be able to sneak into a NY6 Bowl (preferably the Orange Bowl in my scenario, which would have also been an easy win and would have give Coach D a win in half of the current NY6 Bowls).
That was my dreamy, optimistic scenario back in August. Alas, it was not meant to be.
So, instead, MSU is sitting at 5-6 and needs to beat a struggling Maryland squad in order to simply buy a few more weeks of practice and a bus trip to Detroit (most likely) the day after Christmas. Oh, joy. It is not exactly the Grand Finale that I was hoping for.
There is not much that needs to be said about the game. MSU opened as a 20.5 point favorite, based on my source, which is slightly higher than my spreadsheet predicted (19.3) and the FPI predicted (18.4). So, the computers don't like MSU to cover, but it should be close. In fact, I project a final score of 37-17. I would certainly take that.
If nothing else, in good seasons and in bad, those of us with season tickets only have a few Football Saturdays a year. Those are rare occasions we can wander campus with a beer in hand, see old friends, watch the band march by, and finally, stream into Spartan Stadium en-mass. It is a special place where we get to gather together to watch a bunch of 18-22 year old kids play a game that they love.
Those kids might look a lot different than you and me, and they might come from a very different place. But, they will be be wearing green and white, and so will we... those beautiful colors... some might say, The Only Colors. On some level, it binds us together and in a way, I think that makes us family.
So, I will be there on Saturday. A little rain or snow is not going to scare me away, nor we a few empty seats purchased at bargain basement prices by the Idiot Army of Washtenaw County. I am going to go and cheer and likely shed a tear or two for the Seniors when they take the field with their families. Win or lose, those kids have sacrificed a lot over 4-5 years and have busted their butts on those few special fall Saturdays, in part to ensure that I simply had a pleasant Saturday evening and Sunday morning. It is noble, in its own way.
After the finale of the game, I hope to sing the Victory For MSU along with the team and those students that remain... one more time. Time and family. Both are precious. Go Green.
National Overview
For the final time this regular season, I present the projected point differentials from both my model and ESPN's FPI as a function of the Vegas Line.
Based on these plots, I only have three bets that I recommend for the week: Penn State and Oregon to cover as favorites, and Bowling Green to cover as the underdog. At least none of those games has been played yet, so that's a win. Only the Penn State cover is from my algorithm, while the other two picks are from the FPI.
As for upsets, I only have three this week (all from my algorithm), and none of them are very bold. I like San Jose State, San Diego State, and Virginia Tech to all win.
That said, my Monte Carlo simulation of the week suggests that we will observe 15.7 ± 3.2 upsets. That is the most predicted so far this year in any given week, so it could be a wild one.
One last time for 2019, let's take a grand and final spin around the country to survey the action of Rivalry Week
Big Ten
As we have come to expect, the biggest and most consequential game in the Big Ten this week is a rivalry game hosted by the UofM. Wisconsin travels to Minneapolis and will come in as a 2-point favorite over UofM. If Wisconsin can get the win, I believe that they will set the new record as the team with the most trips to Indy. As we all know, UofM has never been to Indy, and could become the 7th different Big Ten team to punch that ticket with the mild upset. Our rodent friends would also officially become the Champions of the West, and would make a compelling case as a play-off participant if they could beat Ohio State in two weeks. Does anyone actually expect UofM to beat OSU? No, of course not... but I for one would love to see UofM in Indy. I sincerely would.
The rest of the match-ups are a no-so-grand collection of inconsequential real or contrived rivalries. Take, for example, Rutgers at Penn State (-38.5). Must-see TV indeed. Both Illinois (vs. Northwestern (+10.5)) and Indiana (at Purdue (+6)) have already secured a bowl bid and are likely to pad their resume with a win. Similarly, Iowa (at Nebraska (+4.5)) looks to eliminate the Huskers from bowl contention, while also reaching an 9-3 record for what seems like they 20th time in the last 20 seasons.
Finally, Ohio State (-8) will visit Ann Arbor in an attempt to beat Michigan for the 15th time in 16 tries. But, seriously folks, if Michigan were to win this game (which I project there is a 29% chance will happen) it will be interesting to see how that affects the Big Ten Bowl pecking order. If Michigan were to get to 10-2 with a win over Ohio State, I could see them jumping up in the rankings enough to make a NY6 Bowl, possibly even the one in Pasadena. It has been 2006 since they lost there, so I could easily see them slotted there with a win over the Buckeyes. If they lose, I think they are headed for the Gator Bowl to play a very bad SEC team like Tennessee. As for Ohio State, as long as they win in Indy, I think that they are headed to the playoffs no matter what happened this week.
SEC
The SEC Title Game participants (LSU and Georgia) were decided a few weeks ago, so this week a few teams are simply jockeying for bowl and/or playoff position. LSU is undefeated and could certainly absorb a loss this weekend vs. Texas A&M (+16.5) and still be fine as long as they win next weekend. As for Georgia, they are huge (28-point) favorites over Georgia Tech, so that should not be an issue. So, the real question is whether Alabama will have a chance to sneak into the playoffs if LSU beats Georgia next week. Bama is sitting at #5 in the playoff rankings and could slide right up to #4 next weekend, that is, assuming that they can win at Auburn (+3.5) which is no gimme this year.
Other than that, Florida (-17) hosts Florida State and with a win will push their record to 10-2. That should be good enough for a NY6 bid. Tennessee (-20) hosts Vandy, and Kentucky (-3) hosts Louisville as both teams hope to get to 7 wins. Similarly Mississippi State (-3) looks to become bowl eligible with a win over Ole Miss. Missouri (-11) is favored to get to 6 wins as well, but they the bowl ban that was placed on them in January was just upheld. So, no bowl for you, Tigers.
Big 12
Similar to the SEC, the participants in next weekend's Big 12 Championship Game have already been decided (Baylor and Oklahoma). Both of those teams might have an outside shot at the Playoffs, bur they certainly cannot take another loss. Baylor (-14) travels to Kansas this week, so a win if fairly likely, but the Sooners (-12) have to travel to Stillwater to face in-state rival Oklahoma State. My algorithm expects this game to be much closer (-3) than the spread suggests, so this is a game that I will have my eye on.
Other than that, the top 6 teams in the conference have already qualified for a bowl and only TCU remains on the fence. The Horned Frogs (-11.5) host West Virginia, so they are likely to reach the 6-win threshold as well. Iowa State (-3) also travels to Kansas State in a battle of 7-win teams both hoping to become 8-win teams. That is already more wins than Texas will have, as the Longhorns (-9) are on track to pick up win #7 against Texas Tech.
ACC
Clemson already ran the table in the ACC and this week they will try to finish 12-0 by beating up on intrastate rival South Carolina (+24.5). Interestingly, my algorithm likes the Cocks to cover at home. The only game of actual consequence is the battle of Virginia as the Virginia Tech travels to Charlottesville to face Virginia. UVA (-1.5) is a narrow favorite, but my algorithm likes the Hokies. My guess is that the winner of this game will also get the invite to the Orange Bowl after they get shellacked by Clemson next week. Although, Wake Forest could get to 9-3 with a win at Syracuse (+4.5) and they would also have a case.
Other than that, 8 total teams have qualified for bowls and 2 other teams are in play. Boston College could get to 6 wins with an upset win at Pitt (-9), but that is not so likely. More likely is UNC winning at NC State (+8). Here is why this is important. The Quicklane Bowl is essentially the 10th Bowl in the ACC pecking order. With 8 teams qualified, plus Notre Dame as 9, the ACC needs one more team to qualify in order to fill that 10th slot. Considering that MSU is most likely headed there as well, the UNC-NC State game is likely the game with the biggest potential impact on MSU's bowl opponent (assuming MSU beats Maryland).
That said, the situation is actually a bit more complicated than that, as the final playoff rankings will determine the teams to play in both the Orange and Cotton Bowls. For example, if a Big Ten team winds up in the Orange Bowl, the ACC gets to send a team to the Citrus Bowl, which will pull all of the other ACC teams up a bowl. Similarly, if a Big Ten team were to get selected by the Cotton Bowl, the Big Ten teams would all slide up a Bowl. In this scenario, MSU would wind up in the Pinstripe Bowl, most likely.
Pac-12
Oregon sealed the deal in the North Division weeks ago, but they also managed to take themselves out of the Playoff race with their loss last week in the desert to Arizona State. I hear that it is tough to win there. So, the Ducks only have the Rose Bowl and pride to play for, the latter of which will definitely be in play this weekend as they host Oregon State (+18). The Beavers will need the upset win over the Ducks in order to gain bowl eligibility.
Down South, Utah (-28) is a heavy favorite to beat Colorado at home and earn the right to face Oregon in the Pac-12 Title game. If the Utes can then beat the Ducks, they will also have a strong case as a possible Playoff participant. Other than that, there are a lot of 6-win teams that will try to win a 7th game this weekend, including both Washington schools, who face each other (the Huskies are favored by 6.5), Arizona State (favored at home to beat Arizona by 12.5), and Cal (who is a 1.5-point underdog at UCLA).
Group of Five
All Group of Five eyes will be on the Cincinnati at Memphis (-10.5) game. If Memphis wins, they get the right to play Cincinnati against next week to decide the AAC Champ. However, if Cincinnati wins, Memphis needs to root for Houston to upset Navy (-7) to avoid the Midshipmen from winning the West instead. The two best case scenarios for the AAC would be for either Cincinnati to beat Memphis and then Navy next week OR for Memphis to beat the Bearcats twice. In both cases, the AAC Champ would have but one loss, and that would likely send them to the Cotton Bowl.
However, if the eventual AAC Champ has 2 loses, both Boise State and Appalachian State have a shot. Boise has a winnable game this week at Colorado State (+12), and then they will likely be favored to beat Hawaii for the MWest Title the following week. As for Appalachian State, they travel to Troy State (+11.5) this week and then will face Louisiana-Lafayette for the "Sun Belt," the following weekend.
That is all for now. I will be back early next week for a summary of the week's action. Until then, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Terrapins, and have a Happy Thanksgiving!
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