Towards the end of ABC's broadcast of the Michigan State Spartans' impressive 38-17 road win over the then No. 24 ranked Miami Hurricanes, the cameras focused on a thunderstorm close to Hard Rock Stadium. It appeared as roughly rectangular block of solid rain, surrounded by blue skies. Apparently, this is normal in southern Florida, but to this Michigander, it was rather surprising.
Strange things are certainly afoot in 2021. Winds of change are blowing. Based on the shear oddness of the 2020 college football season, 2021 was bound to be unique. But, so far, it has been more surprising that I expected after just three weeks.
I have not been shocked by MSU's strong start to the 2021 campaign. I have been mildly surprised, but not shocked. That said, I still expected the Spartans to return from Miami with an "L." I tend to be about as much of an optimist as you may find in the MSU community, but the data and the weight of history led me to the conclusion that the most likely result was a close loss.
But that did not happen.
In the fourth quarter it was the Spartans who stood tall and put the Hurricanes away in the closing minutes. In a situation where even very good past MSU teams had faltered (on the road in challenging weather conditions against a Power Five team in September), this year's team stood tall.
Fate whispered to the Spartan warriors, "A storm is coming." The Spartan warriors whispered back, in unison, "No... We are the storm."
And so it came to pass. The Spartans are 3-0. Sunshine seems to be in the forecast.
But as the Spartans celebrated their well-earned victory, the dark clouds of uncertainty swept across the Big Ten in Week Three. Ohio State had their own Hurricanes (of Tulsa) to deal with on Saturday. While the Buckeyes survived, there were some tense moments which left OSU looking a bit battered and windswept.
But if the Buckeye's aren't the team to beat in the Big Ten East (and they still might be) then who is? James Franklin and Penn State? Most of the time the Nittany Lions are more of just a low pressure system. Indiana? They are in a bit of a tropical depression. Michigan? Over the last 16 years the Wolverines have been nothing but hot air.
Even Rutgers and Maryland are 3-0 with wins over Power Five teams. Can we really discount them? If not, then why not Michigan State?
Yes, the winds of change do seem to be blowing and right now that wind is at the backs of the Spartans. Perhaps a storm is coming. We already know that "Tuck Comin'". Are you ready? More importantly, is the rest of the Big Ten ready?
Week Three Results
As is my weekly tradition, Figure 1 below shows the results of all 52 games in Week Three that featured two FBS level teams.
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| Figure 1: Results of Week Three showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread |
The teams that overachieved by comfortably beating the spread include Texas, Michigan, Washington, Minnesota, Baylor, Wyoming, Ole Miss, USC, UAB, Arkansas, Iowa State, and Wake Forest. As for the teams who fell well short of the spread (but still won), Oklahoma and Clemson fit that bill. Alabama came close to this category as well. The winds of change may be howling on the National scene as well.
The 13 teams who failed to cover so badly that they actually lost are shown below the red line in Figure 1 and summarized in Table 1.
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| Table 1: Upset based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week |
My algorithm did not have a great week (or year so far) with upset picks. It only went 2-5, bringing the year-to-date record to just 5-9 (36 percent), which is well shy of my historical average performance of 43 percent. The FPI did a bit better, getting four correct picks this week out of seven. But, these picks also mark the first time the FPI correctly projected an upset this year and as such the overall record is just 4-8 (33 percent).
The biggest upsets of the week had spreads just into the single digits. Western Michigan's upset of Pitt (-13) was the headliner, with wins by Colorado State (+11), Fresno State (+11), Utah State (+11), and East Carolina (+10) also notable. I should mention that I was also a Hail Mary away from correctly predicting an upset by Louisiana Tech over SMU.
In the realm of betting advice, Table 2 summarizes the results of the potential wagers highlighted in my weekly bad Betting Advice preview.
This week the computers provided the longest list of recommended bets that I can recall. I was interested to see how they did and the results were very surprisingly positive. My algorithm went 8-2 (80 percent) on the week, while my curated picks form the FPI data were 10-5 (67 percent). The combined strategy was 14-7 (67 percent). Year-to-date, the computers are performing right around 60 percent.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Three |
This week the computers provided the longest list of recommended bets that I can recall. I was interested to see how they did and the results were very surprisingly positive. My algorithm went 8-2 (80 percent) on the week, while my curated picks form the FPI data were 10-5 (67 percent). The combined strategy was 14-7 (67 percent). Year-to-date, the computers are performing right around 60 percent.
Despite the strong performance with my highlighted picks, for the entire set of games my algorithm did not do as well. Overall, it was 25-27 for the week (48 percent) bringing the year-to-date performance to 69-78 (47 percent). The FPI is doing a bit better overall so this year. My analysis of the FPI data this week graded it out at 28-24 (54 percent), bringing the year-to-date performance to 77-70 (52 percent).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
With another week of data in the books, the overall picture in the Big Ten (and the nation) continues to shift. Trying to project conference races this early in the year is a bit like predicting the weather. Every Sunday morning, I dump the scores into the computer and turn the crank. Sometimes it predicts rain and sometimes it predicts sun, but it is always prudent to keep an umbrella in your car, just in case.
The Big Ten results were a bit of a mixed bag in Week Three. Michigan State, Penn State and Minnesota all had big wins over Power Five schools, and Iowa and Michigan both covered against MAC opponents. Even Nebraska didn't get blown out by Oklahoma, which was perhaps the biggest surprise of all. But, Ohio State looked shaky and Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern all failed to cover and all lost winnable games against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Duke, respectively.
Table 3 below gives an update on my computer's projection for the Big Ten race following the action over the weekend and based my updated power rankings.
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| Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds. |
In the East, my computer has been impressed with the Wolverines so far this year. The Maize and Blue are sitting at No. 3 in my power rankings and I currently have them favored in all of their remaining games with a 44 percent change to win the East. The expected win total is a bit over 10. The only comment that I will make to our friends in Ann Arbor is that I hope that they are enjoying the September weather, but I hope that they packed an umbrella. Fall is coming soon.
Despite their struggles so far, my computer still gives Ohio State (25 percent) the second best odds in the Division, followed by Penn State (19 percent) and Michigan State (seven percent). The Spartans made a big jump up in my power rankings to No. 22. In reality, the situation is even brighter, as MSU's poor preseason ranking is still negatively impacting the computer's evaluation of Michigan State's strength.
I will also note that the weather is looking very stormy in Bloomington these days, as the computer continues to downgrade the Indiana Hoosiers. I now project the Crimson and Cream to only win two to four games, thanks in large part to the fact that they now grade out to have the most difficult schedule in the nation.
In the Big Ten West, the Iowa Hawkeyes (72 percent) appear to have a commanding lead in the division race and my computer has Iowa all the way up at No. 2 nationally. Overall, four Big Ten teams make up my current top ten, with an additional three teams in the top 25.
One of those top 25 teams this week is Minnesota, who made a huge jump to No. 13 with an impressive win at Colorado. My math gives them a 13 percent chance to win the West, which now exceeds Wisconsin's odds of eight percent. The Golden Gophers are a bit hard to figure out this year so far. While I am not convinced that they are actually a top 25 caliber team, the computer has convinced me that they are at least a team worthy of keeping a closer eye one.
Table 4 below gives the updated win distribution table for the Big Ten.
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| Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Three |
A closer look at MSU's remaining schedule
Figure 2 below give my updated projections for the Vegas lines and win probabilities for all of the games remaining on MSU's schedule, based on the most recent results of my 100,000 Monte Carlo simulation of the remainder of the season.
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| Figure 2: Updates projections for the Vegas line and win probabilities for MSU's remaining schedule |
I now project MSU to be favored in five of the remaining games, starting with the this weekend's contest against Nebraska. This calculation has the Spartans favored by six points, which is slightly above the four-point Vegas line that I see as I type this. The Green and White also currently project as the favorite over Western Kentucky, Indiana, Purdue, and Maryland.
Right now, the game at Rutgers looks like a toss-up and the regular season finale versus Penn State looks to be tight. But, the home game versus Michigan and the road game in Columbus both now project as long shots.
The next few weekends are going to be interesting. The Spartans will need to return home and handle the expectations of being the favored team against the Cornhuskers. MSU will then need to take care of business against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers before a pair a sneaky East Division conference road games at Rutgers and Indiana.
Rutgers under Head Coach Greg Schiano are still a bit of an enigma. At this point, I am not sure if Scarlet Knights will bring gale-force winds or if they will just blow over. One thing that does play into MSU's favor is that Rutgers travels to Michigan and then hosts Ohio State in back-to-back weeks prior to the Spartans coming to town. Advantage, Spartans.
As for Indiana, the Hoosiers are on the road at Western Kentucky and at Penn State before drawing a bye the week before hosting MSU. As mentioned above, the numbers currently are not kind, but I have a hard time believing that things are as bad as they may seem in Bloomington. If Indiana gets blown out by Penn State to give them their third loss of the season, the wheels just might come off. That said, the extra week to prepare for Michigan State will be exactly what they might need. Advantage, Hoosiers.
If the Spartans can maintain their current momentum, winning at least three of the next four games seems very plausible. That would put MSU at 6-1 or perhaps even 7-0 heading into a bye week prior to the October 30 contest with the Wolverines. As of today, it is also very plausible that the Wolverines will have a similar record and that both teams will be nationally ranked. At this rate, any residents of the state of Michigan who are not college sports fans may want to seek shelter on that particular weekend.
National Overview
Finally, let's take a look at the weather around the rest of the nation this week. The updated conference odds can be viewed by clicking on the hyperlink attached to each conference name.
Louisville provides a bit of sunshine for the ACC this weekend by upsetting UCF, but for most of the rest of the conference, the sky was cloudy. Miami and Virginia Tech both lost in games against Power Five opponents and Pitt was upset by Western Michigan.
As for the division races, Clemson struggled to beat Georgia Tech, while Wake Forest throttled Florida State. As a result, my computer actually gives the Demon Deacons (31 percent) a slightly better chance to win the Atlantic Division than Clemson (24 percent). I don't personally believe that, but it does raise ones eyebrows.
Meanwhile, on the Coastal side of the conference, UNC beat Virginia this weekend, which gives every team in the division at least one loss. Despite their loss at West Virginia, my computer still gives Virginia Tech (39 percent) the edge over Pitt (21 percent) and North Carolina (21 percent) to win the Division.
In the Big 12, the weather was rather pleasant, as both Kansas State and Oklahoma State scored upset wins, albeit over Group of Five teams in Nevada and Boise State, respectively. The only team that failed to cover in inter-conference play was Oklahoma.
Right now, I have Kansas State (No. 6), Iowa State (No. 10), Oklahoma (No. 14), Texas (No. 19), and Oklahoma State (No. 24) all ranked in my top 25 with the K-State (55 percent) and ISU (39 percent) now with the best odds to meet for the Big 12 Championship. K-State is a team that I now have my eye on. They face the two schools from Oklahoma over the next two weeks, including drawing the Sooners in Manhattan.
While the weather was calm on the Great Plains, storms continued to batter the West Coast this weekend. Arizona was upset by Northern Arizona of the FCS. Arizona State was upset by BYU, UCLA lost to Fresno State, Utah was upset by San Diego State, and Colorado couldn't even score against Minnesota.
The only positives for the Pac-12 was a win over Vanderbilt by Stanford and the fact that Washington actually scored some points against Arkansas... State. Practically, all this did was to artificially inflate Michigan's strength of schedule. The simulation now heavily favors Oregon to win the North (54 percent) and USC to win the South (45 percent) thanks in large part to a blow out win over Washington State by the Trojans.
In the SEC, Alabama wound up with a closer shave at Florida than expected, and Georgia did not cover against South Carolina, but both teams are still currently big favorites to win their respective Divisions. Alabama (50 percent odds to win the West) seems to have slightly tougher competition in the form of Ole Miss (19 percent) and Texas A&M (14 percent). Georgia (87 percent) has a more comfortable lead (on paper) over Florida (seven percent) and Kentucky (three percent).
My current playoff leaderboard has Georgia (70 percent), Oregon (42 percent), Iowa (38 percent), and Alabama (35 percent) in the top four slots with Michigan, K-State, and Ole Miss knocking on the door as potentially interesting spoilers.
In the Group of Five, Cincinnati of the America Athletic Conference (ACC) had the best weekend by scoring a big win over Indiana. The Bearcats are sitting in a very good position to claim a spot in the New Years' Six (NY6) Bowls. I have them easily at the top of my Group of Five NY6 leaderboard with a 52 percent chance at finish the season as the highest ranked Group of Five Champion. Next week the Bearcats travel to Notre Dame. A win in South Bend would put Cincinnati into the conversation as a legitimate Playoff candidate.
If the Bearcats were to stumble, for example, in the AAC Championship Game, there are a few teams to watch for as potential dark horse candidates for the NY6 berth. Fresno State is my computer's new favorite in the Mountain West, thanks to the the Bulldog's upset win at UCLA this week.
In Conference USA, UTSA has a win over Illinois and remained undefeated this week with a win over Middle Tennessee State. The Roadrunners would need to run the table and get some luck to stay in the NY6 conversation. Currently, my math favors UAB in the wide open C-USA race.
In the Sunbelt, Coastal Carolina is likely the best candidate to steal the NY6 bid, but I currently project Appalachian State and Louisiana to have better conference title odds. Finally, the MAC is a very long shot to claim the NY6 berth. Western Michigan has the best odds and is my current projected leader in the MAC West with Miami (OH) looking like the team to beat in the East.
That is all for today. Until next time, enjoy and Go State, beat the Huskers!
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