The Michigan State Spartans had the week off in Week Eight, but there was still a lot of action to discuss. Most importantly, the Michigan Wolverines managed to avoid embarrassment and were able to pull away from Northwestern in the second half to ensure a battle of unbeatens next week in East Lansing. It is now officially "Michigan Week."
A lot can and will be said about next weekend's match-up. Some fans on both sides are excited by the unprecedented fact of both teams being undefeated this deep into the season. I do not count myself as a part of this group.
From my point of view, beating Michigan has it's own appeal, regardless of their record. Beating "bad" Michigan teams is just as satisfying as beating "good" Michigan teams. MSU has had enough high level success in both major revenue sports over the past 10-20 years that one more win over a top 10 team, while certainly nice, is more of a drop in the bucket. I would much rather hand Michigan their seventh loss, ensuring a losing season.
You see, to me the University of Michigan is like that aging, balding older brother with a beer gut who was a star athlete and student at a small high school and had a reputation for beating up middle-schoolers. He flamed out later in life and now lives in mom and dad's basement. He likes to talk a lot of smack at family reunions about "the good old days" and how "big things are right around the corner." I usually just try to ignore him and pretend that him don't exist, which is hard, as he is always seeking attention.
In years like these, the smack talking in Ann Arbor just gets louder, which is frankly just annoying. If nothing else, I don't think that it is good for the Wolverines to get their hopes up that they are anything more than a consistently above average, middling Big Ten program, like a more arrogant version of Iowa. It just isn't healthy. There clearly are a lot of lessons about humility that our friends in southeast Michigan still need to learn.
To this end. I think that I speak for the entire MSU and broader Big Ten community when I say that deep down we just want the Wolverines to be the best version of themselves possible as people. Continued lessons in humility are a big part of this effort. We Spartans are here to help them lose and to keep losing in as many sports as possible, for as long as it takes. That is how much we care. They are, after all, family, even if no one if the family can stand to have them around.
School will be in session next weekend in East Lansing. Remember to pack a lunch.
Week Eight Results
As is my weekly tradition, Figure 1 below shows the run down of all 53 games involving two FBS teams in Week Eight.
 |
| Figure 1: Results of Week Eight showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
The teams the overachieved significantly relative to the opening spread this week include Ohio State, Florida State, Mississippi State, SMU, Eastern Michigan, Texas San Antonio, and UCF. There were two teams with week that significantly underachieved, yet still won: Oklahoma and Cincinnati. Their fans were a bit down this weekend.
As for the teams that underachieved so much that they lost, they are summarized below in Table 1.
 |
| Table 1: Upsets based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from Week Eight. |
Based on the opening Vegas line, a total of 14 upsets took place, which was very much in line with expectation. While Illinois' hilarious nine-overtime win over Penn State (-17) was the most notable, Rice's upset win over UAB (-19) was the biggest relative to the opening spreads.
My picks against the spread for the week are summarized below in Table 2.
 |
| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Eight |
For just the second time in the last six week, my curated picks were below .500. My algorithm went just 5-6 (46 percent), including missing badly on three of the top five picks on the board, including taking UAB and Penn State to cover double digit spreads (when they were, in fact, upset) and taking Cincinnati (who badly underachieved).
The FPI did even worse at 5-8 (39 percent) which dragged the combined numbers down to just 45 percent. Year-to-date, however, my algorithm is sitting over 60 percent, while the FPI is now down to 49 percent.
Overall, however, my algorithm continues to struggle. It went only 22-31 (42 percent) against the spread this week and is 191-230 (45 percent) year-to-date. Meanwhile, the FPI was 27-26 (51 percent) this week and is 201-220 (48 percent) year-to-date.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Eight, I have re-run the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, in order to update the season odds for each team. Table 3 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference.
 |
| Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds. |
As expected, Penn State's upset loss to the Illini put a the Nittany Lion's division hopes on a downward path as the odds sank by almost 30 percentage points to under five percent. Meanwhile, both Michigan and Ohio State covered and now hold the top two spots on the leaderboard at 57 and 23 percent respectively. While MSU was idle, the Spartans actually dropped a bit in the power rankings, but their division, conference, and playoff odds crept about by a percentage point or two.
In the Big Ten West, the key result was Wisconsin's downing of Purdue. which effectively ended the Boilermaker's hopes of divisional glory. Iowa (43 percent) still looks to be the favorite to advance to Indy, with Minnesota (28 percent) and Wisconsin (26 percent) lurking.
The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 4.
 |
| Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Eight |
MSU's odds have not significantly changed over the past few weeks. The Spartan's expected win total is still sitting at 9.53, which means getting to double-digit wins is still 50-50. Achieving at least 11 wins has odds of just over 20 percent, and running the table still comes in right about five percent.
A closer look at MSU's remaining schedule
Figure 2 below gives my updated projections for the Vegas lines and win probabilities for all of the games remaining on MSU's schedule. These numbers are generated based on the results of the full season Monte Carlo simulation.
 |
| Figure 2: Updated projections for the Vegas line and win probabilities for MSU's remaining schedule. |
With the Spartans were watching all of the games on TV this weekend, you would think that there would not be that many changes, especially this late in the season, but a few lines did shift.
Purdue seems to have come back down to earth after this weekend's visit from the Badgers. As a result, MSU's game with the Boilermakers in West Lafayette has now swung back to essentially a pick'em.
In addition, Penn State's upset loss and Ohio State's blowout win this week resulted in a major shift in those lines such that the toughest game on the schedule now appears to be the road trip to Columbus, while the Thanksgiving weekend finale against Penn State now looks closure to a pick'em as well. In other words, my computer seems to be finally catching up to what our eyes have been telling us for weeks.
As for next week's contest, my calculations favor the Wolverines by about a touchdown, which is higher than the line opened (+2) but it has moved in the Wolverine's direction since. I will have a lot more to say about this game later in the week.
The Spartans' remain projected as a big favorite over Maryland on November 13.
National Overview
Finally, let's take a quick look around the country at the rest of the action. Once again, the updated conference odds can be viewed by clicking on the hyperlink attached to each conference name.
The big game on the Great Plains this week took place in Ames, IA as the Cyclones of Iowa State took down Oklahoma State in Big 12 action. Even though Oklahoma is undefeated the sitting alone in first place, my computer ranks the Sooners outside of the top 30. Oklahoma is projected to drop three of their remaining four games and thus has only the fourth best odds in the conference (34 percent) to return to the Big 12 Champions Game.
Instead, my machine gives Oklahoma State (64 percent) and Iowa State (60 percent) the best odds to make the Big 12 Championship game. Baylor has the third best odds at 36 percent. With Texas, Iowa State, and Baylor already in the rear-view mirror, and by virtue of drawing the the Sooners in Stillwater, OK State is in good shape despite the loss this weekend.
Parents, I think that it is also time to talk to your kids about a potential Wake Forest - Pittsburgh match-up in the ACC Championship game. Wake Forest is 7-0 after sneaking past Army this week with projected odds to win the Atlantic Division now at 82 percent. NC State (15 percent) is still the most likely challenger, but they failed to win at Miami this weekend. Hmm, not winning at Miami... I wonder what that's like?
In the ACC Coastal Division, Pitt (6-1) neutered the Clemson Tigers and I now project the Panthers ot have a 88 percent change to win the division. Only Virginia (6-2 and 10 percent odds) has a realistic shot to sneak past Pitt, but that scenario is clearly a long shot.
The SEC is basically status quo this week, with Georgia all but having the East sewn up (99 percent odds) and Alabama trending in that direction (71 percent) after the Tide covered against Tennessee this weekend. Auburn (12 percent odds) still looks like the only team that could create trouble in the West, but Ole Miss (11 percent) and Texas A&M (6 percent) are still in the chase thanks to wins over LSU and South Carolina this week, respectively.
In Pac-12 action, Oregon and Oregon State both picked up wins our South Division foes this week (UCLA and Utah, respectively) and seem to be headed for a late November showdown for all the Northern marbles. Meanwhile, Utah (61 percent) still has the best odd in the South as every single team in the Utes' Division who played this week lost.
A look at my computer's current Playoff leaderboard has Georgia with the best odds at just over 90 percent. The Bulldogs are followed by Michigan (54 percent), Wake Forest (32 percent), and Notre Dame (32 percent). The rest of the top ten is rounded out by Pitt, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Cincinnati, Kentucky, and Michigan State.
In Group of Five action, Cincinnati survived a scare from Navy and thus remained as the clear front-runner for a New Year's Six Bowl (51 percent), which this year could even by one of the two national semifinals. The Bearcat remain the favorite in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) with 91 percent odds to reach the conference championship game. Houston (6-1, 80 odds) and SMU (7-0, 23 percent) have the best odds to face Cincinnati in that title game.
If Cincinnati does falter and get upset in this Conference Champion Game, Houston and SMU are the most likely beneficiaries and as such they currently place fourth and fifth on my current Group of Five leaderboard.
The team that used to be in second place, Coastal Carolina, was downed by Appalachian State, which put the Mountaineers in the driver's seat (63 percent odds) in the Sun Belt East. App State will most likely get a rematch with Louisiana (96 percent odds in the West) in the Sun Belt Championship Game.
Two other Group of Five teams are also worth keeping an eye on. Texas San Antonio from Conference USA now sits at 8-0 with a 35 percent chance to win the conference, quite likely with a perfect record. In the Mountain West, San Diego State also remained perfect and are the current favorites to win that league with odds at 34 percent.
While the MAC has no shot at New Year's Six glory this year, Miami of Ohio (62 percent) and North Illinois (57 percent) are my current divisional leaders.
Against all odds, I have reached the end this week. It's going to be a wild week here Michigan, so buckle up. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Skunkbears!
Shown below are the detailed data tables for each conference
Comments
Post a Comment