Week 12 Recap: Glass Ceiling

My summary of Michigan State University's brutal 56-7 loss to Ohio State this weekend can basically by summed up as follows:

It could have gone better.

We all knew going into the game that it was going to be a challenge. The Spartans were going to need to be sharp, the Buckeyes were going to need to be a little sloppy, and MSU was likely going to need to get some good bounces. When exactly zero of those things happen, well, a 49-point blow out is what happens. It is what it is.

Michigan State is having a dream season so far. Even the most optimistic fan would have been hard pressed to predict a 9-2 record with a win over Michigan by the time the Thanksgiving turkey was finished cooking. But, I think that it is clear that this Spartan team has been flying by the seats of their pants for some time now.

Coach Mel Tucker has been squeezing every last ounce of potential out of this team every week. That effort has been good enough to beat almost every team on the schedule. That is always the first step in any rebuilding process: to get back to winning the vast majority of the winnable games on the schedule. Coach Tucker has done that.

However, in just Year Two, it is completely expected that there is going to be a hard ceiling on what this roster can accomplish. The Spartans crashed face-first into that ceiling in Columbus on Saturday. MSU has a good team this year, but they clearly are not quite ready to go toe-to-toe with the truly big dogs of college football, at least not yet.

In the 21st century, college football is very much a sport of haves and have-nots. There are honestly only a handful of programs that truly seem to have the all the piece needed to win a National Title. Ohio State is a team that has those pieces. Michigan State is a program that is trying to collect and assemble them. One of the best ways to do that is to simply look through that glass pane to see what a Championship-level team looks like. The Spartan got a good look on Saturday.

While Michigan State is currently hovering just below that glass ceiling, there are signs that the Spartans are assembling the tools needed to crack it wide open. MSU is a football program with a rich history to draw from. In the 1950s and 1960s, Duffy Daugherty built a Championship caliber team using his so-called Underground Railroad of players from the south. 

After some down years, the Spartans cycled up periodically in the late 1980s and late 1990s to once again rise to national prominence. Coach Mark Dantonio had a longer run of success in the 2010s, only to see the Green and White fall away from that ceiling once again. Each of those great teams in those great eras suffered blow-out losses to the big boys along the way.

Now, Michigan State University believe that they have found the man who has the ability to chop a hole in that glass ceiling. MSU appears poised to soon make Coach Mel Tucker one of the highest paid African American coaches in all of sports. 

Time will only tell whether the investment will be a good one or not. I, for one, am optimistic that it will be. I have seen enough of Coach Tucker and the way that he runs the program to believe that he can do great things in East Lansing as long as he is giving the tools and resources that he needs.

While some people have scoffed at the bold, record-setting contract that seems imminent, just remember that the glass ceiling only exists because people who are above it (or who think that they are) are afraid that they may soon be displaced. College football is very much a zero-sum game. 

That all said, I am confident in this. Records are meant to be broken... and so are glass ceilings.

Week 12 Results

As is my weekly tradition, Figure 1 below shows the results of all 62 games involving two FBS teams in Week 12.

Figure 1: Results of Week 12 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

The teams that overachieved this week, relative to the opening Vegas lines, include Ohio State (insert sad emoji face), Michigan, Tennessee, Utah, Clemson, Louisville, Cincinnati, Western Kentucky, and Cal. As for the teams that underachieved, but avoided upset loses, Army, LSU, Alabama, and TCU all fall into that category. 

There were a total of 13 upsets relative to the opening Vegas spreads in Week 12, which was very much in line with expectation. Table 1 below summarizes these upsets in comparison to the picks made by the computers last week.

Table 1: Upsets based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from Week 12.

The majority of the upsets either involved Group of Five teams or were in games with fairly tight point spreads to start with. That said, South Carolina's upset of Auburn and Missouri's upset of Florida were both notable.

Both computers went a ho-hum 2-4 this week (33 percent) which brings the year-to-date performance of both systems to around 39 percent. This number is still under the ceiling of historical upset performance (which is closer to 45 percent).

Table 2 below gives the results of my curated picks against the opening lines for Week 12.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week 12.

It was a slow week for picks against the spread (ATS), but my algorithm was a perfect 2-0. My picks using the ESPN's FPI went only 2-3 (40 percent for the week) which resulted in an overall performance of 4-3 (57 percent).

Year-to-date, my computer is 63 percent ATS, while the FPI-based packs are under the ceiling at 49 percent). Overall, the combined picks are just under 55 percent, which is the historical benchmark.

For all 62 games in Week 12, my computer's performance was not quite as strong. It was an even 31-31 relative to the opening spread. Year-to-date, my machine is now 323-332 (49.3 percent). As for the FPI, it had a better week at 36-26 (58 percent) which brings its year-to-data tally up to 327-328, just one game shy of .500.

Updated Big Ten Odds and What's Next for MSU

At this point in the season with just a single game regular season game left, the number of remaining scenarios are now very small. There were no upsets at all in Big Ten country this week, so the story is largely unchanged.

In the Big Ten West, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota are all still alive. Wisconsin can clinch the division with a win over Minnesota in Minneapolis this weekend. If the Badgers falter, things get interesting. Iowa could potentially find their way to Indianapolis with a Wisconsin loss if the Hawkeyes can beat Nebraska in Lincoln. 

If both the Gophers and Corn Huskers win this weekend, Minnesota can still win a multi-team tiebreaker as long as Purdue can beat Indiana to force a four-way tie. If Purdue falters, the West crown would revert to the Badgers in the event of just a three-way tie. Overall, the opening lines for next weekend suggest that there is a 71 percent chance that Wisconsin will represent the Big Ten West in Indianapolis. Iowa's odds are 16 percent, which Minnesota's odds are 13 percent.

As for the Big Ten East, it just comes down to the Ohio State / Michigan game in Ann Arbor where the winner will take all. Based on the opening line of six points for the Buckeyes, there is a one-third chance that Michigan finally finds their way to Indianapolis.

If the winner between the Buckeyes and Wolverines is able to beat the West Champion (most likely Wisconsin) that team will almost certainly make the College Football Playoffs. The loser between Michigan and Ohio State is most likely headed to Pasadena. 

Of course, if the West Champion were to upset the East Champion in Indianapolis, the West Champion would head to the Rose Bowl, and Michigan and Ohio State would likely then fall to the Fiesta and Peach Bowls where the opponents would very likely be some combination of the ACC Champion, Notre Dame, or Cincinnati.

Regarding Michigan State, next week's game versus Penn State on senior day is a big one for bowl positioning. If MSU can win and finish at 10-2, the Green and White are in great shape for a New Year's Six Bowl, as long as the eventual East Champion makes the playoffs. 

If MSU were to lose to Penn State, the Big Ten bowl pecking order all of a sudden looks very murky. The Spartans could conceivable fall behind Iowa, Wisconsin, and even Penn State in the eyes of the bowl committees. I don't think that MSU would fall lower than the Outback Bowl, but it is possible.

The line for this weekend's game with the Nittany Lions has opened with MSU as only a one-point favorite. It is basically a coin flip.

National Overview

Let's now make a brief stop at each Power Five conference to see where each race stands.

The easiest place to start is the SEC, where the Championship game participants are both set. Georgia will face Alabama in two weeks. Georgia will be in the playoffs either way, unless the Bulldogs somehow lose to Georgia Tech this weekend and then lose to Alabama. If Bama beats Georgia for the SEC title, both teams will be in the Final Four. 

The only real question here is if Alabama plays Georgia tight, will the committee still have the Crimson Tide ranked in the top four in the final playoff poll? I would say absolutely not, as they would have already had their chance (and failed) to prove themselves worthy on a neutral field. But, it is hard to say what decision the committee would make in this scenario.

In ACC action, Clemson handed Wake Forest their first official conference loss of the season, which prevented the Demon Deacons from clinching the Atlantic Division title. Wake Forest is poised to seal the deal this weekend at Boston College. 

If Wake Forest were to lose this game, North Carolina State could steal the crown with a win over North Carolina. If both the Demon Deacons and Wolf Pack were to lose, Clemson would win the division. In any event, the Atlantic Division Champion will face Pittsburgh in the ACC Championship Game, as the Panthers clinched the Coastal Division with weekend with a win over Virginia.

In the Big 12, Oklahoma State clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship with a win over Texas Tech this weekend. Baylor and Oklahoma are also both still alive to claim the second spot after beating Kansas State and Iowa State, respectively. The Sooners can claim that spot by beating Oklahoma State this weekend in Stillwater. If the Cowboys are victorious, Baylor will claim the spot with a win versus Texas Tech.

Out West, Utah scored a huge win over Oregon this weekend, and as a result have sewn up the Pac-12 South Division and simultaneously knock Oregon out of playoff contention. The Ducks can force a rematch with the Utes in the title game if they can beat rival Oregon State at home this weekend. If not, both Oregon State and Washington State are still alive. Wazzou would win the three-team tiebreaker if they can beat Washington in the Apple Bowl on Friday.

In Group of Five action, both Cincinnati and Houston won this weekend and as a result, those two teams are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. At this point, it seems likely that the winner of the AAC Title Game is going to claim that Group of Five slot in the New Year's Six. It is really just a question as to whether Cincinnati can break through the glass ceiling and make the playoffs as a Group of Five team.

If Houston does manage to upset Cincinnati, my gut feeling is that the Cougars would get the New Year's Six nod. If not, the only other viable contenders are San Diego State, Texas San Antonio, and Louisiana, but each team would need to win out. UTSA has the easiest remaining path, while San Diego State has the toughest. 

That said, San Diego State might be the only team left with a resume good enough to challenge Houston. The Aztec finish the season at Boise State this weekend, followed by the Mountain West Championship Game, perhaps against Utah State, if they were to win.

All this taken together, I will make a very simply update to my personal playoff projections. I will swap Michigan State and Ole Miss in the Peach and Fiesta Bowl. These match-ups seems a bit more plausible.

• Orange Bowl: No. 1 Georgia (13-0) versus No. 4 Cincinnati (13-0)
• Cotton Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State (12-1) versus No. 3 Oklahoma State (12-1)
• Rose Bowl: Michigan (10-2) versus Utah (10-3)
• Sugar Bowl: Alabama (11-2) versus Baylor (10-3)
• Peach Bowl: Wake Forest (12-1) versus Ole Miss (10-2)
• Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame (11-1) versus Michigan State (10-2)

Against all odds, I have reached the end for this week. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Lions!