There are some days when a single song sums up a situation very precisely. Saturday was one of those days. The particular song that I am thinking of goes a little something like this:
"Everything is awesome. Everything is cool when you're part of a team. Everything is awesome. When you beat the Wolverines."
At least that is how remember it going.
As we all saw, in perhaps the biggest game in the storied history of the rivalry, the Michigan State Spartans came from behind to beat the Wolverines by a score of 37-33. The Spartans were surprisingly able to run the ball while stopping the Wolverine rushing attack. Early turnovers and an equally surprisingly competent Wolverine passing attack had the Spartans on the ropes.
But the Spartans bend-but-don't break defense once again forced the Wolverines to mostly kick field goals while the Spartans scored touchdowns. Once the turnovers evened out, it was just enough to secure the victory for the Green and White.
For the Wolverines, this loss must feel a bit like stepping on a Lego. For what feels like the 70th year in a row, the Michigan faithful had convinced themselves that this was the year when "the special" things were going to start happening for their program. This was supposed to be the year when the recruiting rankings, the over-paid coaches, and the ugly helmet were finally going to translate into wins over the good teams, and not just all the mediocre ones on the schedule.
This was supposed to be the year when the older brother put the younger brother into his place and sent him back down to the basement to play with Duplos. It was all foretold back in the Spring like some ancient prophesy and repeated in the Ann Arbor echo chamber until they all started to believe it.
Instead, for the tenth time in 14 tries, the Spartans gave the Wolverines the business.
Going forward, it will be interesting to see what happens with Wolverine Coach Jim Harbaugh. Back in the summer, everyone was talking that Harbaugh might soon lose his job and have to look for a new opportunity. (Perhaps that would give him more time for his awesome community). That talk died down as the wins accumulated. I expect it to return a roar again soon.
As for Coach Mel Tucker and the Spartans, side by side it feels like they are going to win forever and party forever (or at least until next weekend). It's awesome to win, and it's awesome when the Wolverines lose. It is even more awesome when it happens together.
Week Nine Results
As is my weekly tradition, Figure 1 below shows the results of all 53 games involving two FBS teams in Week Nine.
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Figure 1: Results of Week Nine showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
The teams that were awesome and overachieved this week include Oklahoma State, Louisiana, UCF, Wake Forest, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Utah, Marshall, BYU, and Kansas State. There were not again games that crossed the dotted line over into underachievement, but USC came very close to not being awesome.
Table 1 below summarizes the 13 games that ended in an upset relative to the opening Vegas line and in comparison to the computer picks.
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Table 1: Upsets based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from Week Nine |
Week Nine featured a total of six upsets where the line was a touchdown or greater. These include Washington State (+16) over Arizona State, Miami (+10) over Pitt, Purdue (+7) over Nebraska, and West Virginia (+7) over Iowa State. Naturally, the Spartans' (+2) awesome win over the Wolverines is also on the list.
As for the upset picks this week, they were a bit more awesome than usual. My metric got two-thirds of the picks correct and the FPI was over 40 percent. Year-to-date, the both my algorithm (36 percent) and the FPI (34 percent) are lagging historical performance, but this weekend helped.
Now if you really want to see awesome performance, check out Table 2 below which gives the results of the computers picks against the opening spread (ATS).
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Table 3: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Nine |
Things were not so awesome for the FPI which swung and missed on the only pick of the week. However, my algorithm was correct on five of the total six picks. This brings my computer's performance up 63 percent for the year. The FPI has sunk a bit more below .500 through nine week, and the overall performance where I combine the picks from both models sits at 54 percent year-to-date.
For Week Nine as a whole, everything was once again pretty awesome from my algorithm. It went 35-18 (66 percent) against the opening line, even though it got the Michigan / Michigan State game wrong. For the year, my computer is still a less-then-awesome 226-248 (48 percent) but it is making progress.
Much like the Wolverines, thing were significantly less awesome for ESPN's FPI. That computer was only 22-31 (42 percent) and overall is now down to 223-251 (47 percent). I have heard rumor that FPI software engineers think that the officials are simply conspiring against them.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Nine, I have re-run the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, in order to update the season odds for each team. Table 3 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference.
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Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds. |
Even outside of the state of Michigan, it was a pretty big weekend in the B1G. Let's start in the West Division where Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Purdue all scored key victories. The Golden Gophers of Minnesota are now alone in first place with the Badgers, Boilermakers, and the fading Hawkeyes a game back in the loss column.
My computer has a lot of respect for Wisconsin and as a result now gives the Badgers the slight edge in the division race with 42 percent odds. The Badgers have wins in hand against Purdue and Iowa and a reasonably manageable schedule down the stretch (with games at Rutgers, versus Northwestern, and versus Nebraska). There is a good chance that Wisconsin will be traveling to Minneapolis on Thanksgiving weekend for a winner-take-all showdown with the Gophers.
Minnesota's odds are just a tick lower at 40 percent, despite being a game ahead in the standings. If Wisconsin were to stumble (for example against Nebraska) and if the Gophers can run the table (by winning versus Illinois, at Iowa, and at Indiana) the final weekend won't matter and Minnesota will make their first trip to Indianapolis. But, all signs are pointing a Thanksgiving showdown where my computer projects that the Badgers (-3) will be a slight favorite.
With wins by both Michigan State and Ohio State this weekend, the battle for the East is basically down to those two teams and Michigan, and the odds are surprisingly close. My computer has finally come around to the idea that the Spartans are legitimate contenders, and I actually project MSU with slightly better overall odds than Ohio State by two tenths of a percentage point (36.7 percent versus 36.5 percent).
While our eyes are telling us that Ohio State is still likely the best team of the three, my computer still projects that the Wolverines should be favored on a neutral field against the other two (despite the result in East Lansing). But, the Spartans are simply refusing to lose.
Penn State is essentially out of the race, but they can still play the role of spoiler for the Spartans and/or the Wolverines. Ohio State and Michigan State also need to avoid stepping on a Lego in one of the upcoming sneaky road games including next week when MSU travels to Purdue and Ohio State head to Nebraska. There is still plenty of opportunity for drama in the Big Ten East race.
The updated Big Ten win distribution matrix is shown below in Table 4.
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Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Nine |
As expected, the big win over the Wolverines game the Spartan's expected win total a nice boost up to 10.31. More precisely, Table 4 gives MSU a 78 percent chance to get to at least double digit wins, a 43 percent change to get to 11-1 and a 12 percent chance to run the table in the regular season.
A closer look at MSU's remaining schedule
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Figure 2: Updates projections for the Vegas line and win probabilities for MSU's remaining schedule. |
National Overview
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Figure 5: Rankings based on actual wins relative to the each teams strength of schedule (defined as the expected number of wins an average P5 team who have with the same schedule, year-to-date) |
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