Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

I have used a few metaphors to try to describe this year's Michigan State basketball season, and most of them have been nautical in nature. First, I explained the existence of the Bermuda Triangle. Then, I thought that the Spartan's might have found calmer waters. Most recently, I speculated that the Green and White were stuck in the doldrums.  As the losses continue to accumulate, punctuated most recently with the blow-out loss at Iowa, I no longer feel that the Spartans are lost at sea. No, I fear that the situation is more dire than that. I fear instead that they are lost in space. The current streak of losing five of the last six feels dark, suffocating, and no one knows which way is up anymore. Worse yet, there is an event horizon visible in the distance. If the Spartans get too close, they will cross the point of no return and will a cherished 23-year NCAA Tournament streak will be lost forever? It is unbelievable that we even need to talk about that considering where the...

When it comes to Michigan State basketball, I am the eternal optimist. I never count out a Tom Izzo-led team until the final buzzer. While a big part of this attitude is simply my personality, the facts tend to justify my rosy attitude.  Afterall, Michigan State has won a Big Ten regular season or tournament title in exactly half of the seasons going back to 1998. Coach Izzo has made the Sweet 16 at a higher rate than that (61 percent of the time) and has advanced to the Final Four in a little over a third of all of the NCAA Tournaments in which he has appeared. Furthermore, as I have shown, it is not all uncommon for the Spartans to hit the skids in late January and early February. But the typical pattern is for Michigan State to recover and surge by now. I fully expected that this Spartan team had the goods to still be in the Big Ten race in the final week of the regular season. I was wrong. With the loss to Illinois over the weekend, it is time to shift focus to simply getting b...

dol·drums noun " an equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean with calms, sudden storms, and light unpredictable winds." or " a state or period of inactivity, stagnation, or depression." I have a confession to make. After Michigan State fairly easily dispatched with the Indiana Hoosiers last Saturday, I thought that the mid-season funk had come to an end. I fully expected that the Spartans had escaped from the early February Bermuda Triangle and were ready to make another run at the Big Ten title, difficulty of the remaining schedule be dammed. When the Spartans had the lead up to 14 points at Penn State, I thought that it was going to be smooth sailing for the rest of the evening. But then, all of a sudden, the wind seems to come out of the sails of Michigan State's offense. It grew inactive and stagnant, and by the time the final buzzer sounded, Spartan fans were depressed. Now, a once promising season seems lost at sea. As we will see below, the odds of Tom Izz...

When we last checked in on the overall mathematical status of the Michigan State Spartans basketball season prospects, things were looking bleak. The Green and White seemed adrift in the late January and early February "Bermuda Triangle" after two straight losses at Rutgers and to Wisconsin. But, on Saturday in the Breslin Center, that Spartans seemed to find calmer waters in a convincing, 15-point win over Indiana. In addition to Michigan State's big win, there were a few other results over the weekend that seem to benefit the Spartans. Most importantly, Rutgers was able to upset Wisconsin in Madison on Saturday, which drops the Badgers into a second-place tie with the Spartans in the Big Ten loss column. On Sunday, there were no upsets, but Illinois and especially Purdue had lackluster performances against Illinois and Maryland, respectively. What is the current status of the Big Ten race? Let's start below with the update enhanced Big Ten standings. Table 1 : Enhan...

It has been a pretty tough week, hasn't it Spartan fans? A week ago, Michigan State was projected to win almost 14 conference games. My simulations gave the Spartans close to a one-in-four chance to win or share the Big Ten title. The Green and White were also one of only a handful of teams with the combination of offensive and defensive efficiency that was consistent with former NCAA Champions. Life was good. But, in New Jersey, Michigan State ran into a very hot shooting Scarlet Knights squad. Against Wisconsin, the Spartans looked listless and were ice cold from the field. Michigan State has now lost three of the last five and four of the last seven games. How much this mid-season skid impacted the trajectory of Michigan State's season? Let's dive into the numbers. Enhanced Big Ten Standings and Updated Odds Table 1 gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 11. Note that all the changes in value are relative to last week's full update, just before the l...

In all fairness, I did warn everyone that early February can be bumpy in East Lansing. On Tuesday night at Maryland, the Michigan State Spartans barely survive a surprisingly stiff test from the Maryland Terrapins. Michigan State blew 15-point second half lead, but were bailed out by Malik Hall in the final seconds.  The good news is that MSU has a lot of players who have the potential to act as the hero on any given night. Just this season, Marcus Bingham (versus Loyola Chicago) and Joey Hauser (against Minnesota) join Hall as Spartans who have hit game-winning shots in the final seconds of games. Gabe Brown also hit a three with under a minute to play to essentially clinch a win over Northwestern in Evanston. The bad news is that the Spartans have needed a hero to close out several teams who will likely not being playing in the NCAA Tournament in March. Michigan State has a lot of weapons, but they have seldom been firing at the same time. As we come to the mid-point of the Big T...

It always feels good to beat your rival. It feels better when you beat them at home by double digits, and it feels even better when you can say that you have now beaten them 11 of the last 16 times. It is a good time in history to be a fan of the Michigan State Spartans basketball team. My usual schedule is to provide an update on Michigan State's expected win total, conference title odds, and Big Ten Tournament prospects about once a week. However, it seems fair to provide a quick update today on the impact the Spartans' big win as well as to take a sneak peak at the coming week, which is perhaps bigger than you might think.  Let's start with a lightning round version of my typical odds update. Updated Big Ten Odds With the win over the Wolverines on Saturday and the other weekend action, here are the updated odds for each team to or share the Big Ten regular season title. Table 1:  Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning ...