It is only Week Two and the 2022 college football season has already taken some Strange turns. All across America on Saturday, the results kept getting weirder and weirder. At times, it felt like we had been sucked into a parallel universe.
In the first game of the afternoon, Alabama barely escaped their superhero battle with Texas. Is Texas back? Is Alabama washed? That is a plot twist that I never saw coming.
Later in the day, there was a massacre of sorts as a group of interlopers from the Sun Belt dimension and a tag-along from the Pac-12 dimension wreaked havok on teams such as Norte Dame, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M. At least one casualty of a main character was confirmed (R.I.P. Scott Frost's tenure in Lincoln).
In one case, I am pretty sure time-travel was involved. A team from the mountains of North Carolina stuns a crowd of over 100,000 people in part due to a late failed field goal attempt? That feels like 2007. There was even a brief visit to the basketball dimension as Kansas and Duke both picked up upset wins.
Then, there were the odd events that took place in East Lansing. The Michigan State Spartans somehow looked shaky on defense early, quarterback Payton Thorne struggled with his accuracy and threw two interceptions, and yet the final scoreboard showed that Michigan State pitched a shutout and won by 52 points. Strange.
Ultimately, Akron did not turn out to be much of a sparring partner, at least not after their starting quarterback D.J. Irons left the game with an injury. For the most part, the Spartans are still just playing against themselves and their own standard of excellence. You don't need a third eye in the middle of your forehead to see that a lot of work still needs to be done.
Next week, the challenge will be much greater. Michigan State is going to need to be much sharper in Seattle if the sequel to last year's blockbuster 11-win season is anywhere near as good.
Week Two Results
As is my weekly tradition, Figure 1 below shows the results of all 47 games involving two FBS teams in Week Two.
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| Figure 1: Results of Week Two showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread |
Despite the current flaws that coaches and fans are seeing so far from the Spartans, Michigan State was still one of only eight teams in Week Two who beat the spread by more than one standard deviation (i.e. 14 points, as denoted by the dashed diagonal line). Toledo, Air Force, Memphis, Kansas State, and Illinois were among the other overachievers. Kansas State was the only team that overachieved more than Michigan State.
Alabama was the only team that underachieved by more than one standard deviation, yet still won. A total of 14 teams were not as lucky as the Crimson Tide. Table 1 below summarizes those 14 games as well as the upset picks from earlier in the week.
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| Table 1: Upsets based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week |
There were a lot of high-profile upsets in the wild second weekend of the season, including two upsets (to Nebraska and Notre Dame) where the spread was at or near 20 points. In addition to the upsets mentioned above, Kentucky's win over Florida and Iowa State's win over Iowa are likely to have the biggest impact.
When it comes to picking upsets in 2022, the computers are off to a tough start. My algorithm at least got one of its four picks correct this week. The FPI did a little better by batting .500 on its four picks.
The results of the computers' pick against the opening spread are shown below in Table 2.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Two. |
Similar to the upset picks, the picks against the spread (ATS) were not great in Week Two. My algorithm got only one pick correct out of five. Year-to-date, my machine is a dismal 29 percent ATS. The FPI did a little better, getting three picks correct out of seven, but ESPN's computer dug itself a big hole last week and is only 21 percent ATS after two weeks.
When all 47 games in Week Two are considered, the FPI actually did much better at 26-21 (55.3 percent). My algorithm was a bit worse at 22-25 (46.8 percent) and is sitting with a record of 43-57 (43.0 percent) year-to-date.
While I do not have a good explanation for the poor performance of my algorithm this year (other than a suspicion of witchcraft), I do have a possible solution. Late in the week, I devised a modification to my calculations where the results of game versus FCS teams can now be accurately accounted for. Had I used those numbers instead, my picks against the spread would have been much better. I will make this correction permanent moving forward.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Two, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, in order to update the season odds for each team. Table 3 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 4 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
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| Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Two. |
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| Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Two. |
The current odds are based solely on the results of just two games combined with the summertime opinions of various sports journalists, which are still factored into my calculations. In addition, these odds also now take into consideration that results of games against FCS opponents, which was not the case last week. As a result, there is often a lot of volatility in the numbers in the month of September.
In the Big Ten East, the numbers were kind to the Spartans and Nittany Lions (who both covered in Week Two) and not as kind to the Buckeyes and Wolverines (who did not cover). The updated odds look a lot like they did in the preseason but with Penn State now switching places with Michigan for the second-best odds to win the division (31 percent) behind Ohio State (35 percent).
Interestingly, my algorithm now has Michigan State ranked higher than Michigan (No. 11 versus No. 16) and with slightly better odds to win the Big Ten East. That all said, every team in the Big Ten East is 2-0 and essentially all seven teams had blow-out wins against weak opponents in Week Two. It seems foolish to put too much stock just yet into these numbers, but that is what the #math says right now.
In the Big Ten West, the story is a bit different. Four of the seven teams in the division (Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Wisconsin) all lost in upset fashion this week. Two of the teams (Purdue and Minnesota) blew out FCS teams in a way that does not tell us much. Illinois had a quietly impressive win over Virginia by three touchdowns.
When the red fog cleared on Sunday morning, my computer now has Purdue as the highest ranked team in the West (No. 18) and with the best odds to win the Division (28.6 percent). That said, Minnesota (22.4 percent), Wisconsin (22.4 percent), and Illinois (14.6 percent) are right on the heels of the Boilermakers and are also ranked in the top 30 of my power rankings.
That said, Wisconsin is now projected to be favored in all six of their Big Ten West division games. The Badgers' three division road games (at Northwestern, at Iowa, and at Nebraska) all look significantly easier after Week Two. The fact that Wisconsin plays the other two main division contenders (Purdue, Minnesota, and Illinois) in Madison could be a major factor in the race for the West.
The expected win totals for several teams also saw a lot of fluctuations after Week Two. Michigan State's expected win total is back to the preseason value of around 8.5. The odds that the Spartans once again win 10 or more games is now up to 33 percent.
Michigan States's remaining schedule
Figure 2 gives the updated projections for the remainder of Michigan State's schedule based on the same Monte Carlo simulation referenced above.
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Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Two and based on a 30,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation.
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If these numbers are to be believed, the Spartans are about a touchdown better than four of the next five opponents, including Wisconsin, which previously was projected to be a near toss-up of a match-up. Furthermore, the games versus Ohio State and at Michigan now project to be closer to toss-ups.
The home games against Rutgers and Indiana are still projected to have spreads around 20 points. The only games that now look more challenging following Week Two are the road games at Illinois and at Penn State which now projects as the hardest game remaining on the schedule.
Even if these numbers are correct, the math still suggests that more likely than not, Michigan State will lose one of the next three games. If the Spartans can get to 5-0 prior to facing Ohio State, that would be a fantastic start to the season.
My concern is that I am not convinced that these numbers are accurate. I fear that it is a bit of an illusion of mathematics that only considers final scores and that does not consider blocking, tackling, fumbling, or over-shooting receivers.
I fully expect a dog fight against the Washington Huskies next Saturday evening in Seattle. The early Vegas lines seem to agree. The early lines a week or two ago had Michigan State favored by one-to-three points. The updated line on Sunday night, according to DraftKings SportsBook, has Washington favored by two points.
National Overview
Finally, let's take a quick spin around the rest of the country to see where the various conference races stand following the weekend of madness.
On the surface, the situation in the SEC is essentially status quo. My calculations still have Georgia (69 percent) and Alabama (44 percent) are the clear division favorites. In the East things seem pretty normal. Tennessee and Kentucky both got key wins this weekend over Pittsburgh and Florida and continue to look like the biggest potential threat to the defending national champions.
In the SEC West however, LSU already has a loss from Week One, and in Week Two Texas A&M was upset, Alabama barely escaped an upset, and Auburn failed to cover badly against San Jose State. In contrast, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi are all off to solid starts. The math suggests that the field now has better odds than Bama to claim the West Title.
Nothing terribly weird happened in the Big 12 this weekend with the possible exception that Kansas actually won a game (over West Virginia) and Baylor could not steal a win at BYU. When the dust settled, my algorithm now says that Kansas State (59 percent) has the best odds to make the Big 12 Championship game in large part due to the Wildcats' 28-point win over Missouri. Despite the loss to Alabama, Texas (56 percent) is not far behind.
It was also relatively quiet in the ACC this week, but my algorithm has come to some interesting new conclusions now that the results of FCS games are fully taken into account. Strangely, my calculations now project Syracuse (38.5 percent) to have the best odds in the Atlantic Division over Clemson (26 percent). In the Coastal Division, Pittsburgh (29 percent) now projects to have better odds than Miami (26 percent). This is especially odd considering the fact that Pitt lost to Tennessee this week and Pitt's Week One opponent (West Virginia) was upset by Kansas. We will just have to wait and see how this plotline continues to develop.
Out west in the Pac-12, both Arizona schools and Colorado all picked up expected losses, but Oregon State and Washington State both managed upset wins at Fresno State and Wisconsin. In addition, USC covered the spread at Stanford and are looking more and more like a conference contender. The updated math now gives the Trojans (50 percent) the best odds to make the Pac-12 Championship Game with Oregon State (40 percent), Utah (29 percent), and Oregon (24 percent) still in solid contention.
In Group of Five action, the main storyline of the weekend was the three spellbinding upsets by teams from the Sun Belt over Power Five teams. As a result, one has to wonder if the eventual Sun Belt champion now has the upper hand in the chase for the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six. As of today, Appalachian State (36 percent) has to best odds to win their conference.
That said, watch out for Air Force in the Mountain West. The Falcons destroyed Colorado over the weekend and their schedule is now ranked the second easiest in all of the FBS (behind only Florida International). For this reason, Air Force (19 percent) now sits at the top of my Group of Five leaderboard with Cincinnati (18 percent) just behind.
Finally, let us have a brief moment of silence for another character that has seems to have been written out of the College Football Cinematic Universe this week. Notre Dame, at 0-2, unranked, and without a conference race to fall back on has essentially nothing left to play for and it is not even mid-September. Can you believe that in some universes, they were actually picked to make the National Title Game? Madness.
Against all odds, I have reached that end for today. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State; beat the Huskies!
See also: https://www.sbnation.com/e/23112887
Here are the odds for the P5 and the G5 Leaderboard
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