The dogs days of summer typically refer to that period of time in July and August when the temperatures rise and the motivation of people (and their pets) tend to be at their nadir. College football fans will often feel an additional sense of malaise during this time of the year as we patiently wait for the season to begin.
Even though we are now two full weeks into the season, Michigan State fans still seem to be experiencing a strange combination of lethargy and anxiety. Sure, the Spartans have outscored Western Michigan and Akron by a combined score of 87-13. But neither of those teams are world-beaters and both the Spartan offense and the defense, at times, were not as sharp as we hoped. The dog days seem to still be upon us.
That all will change come Saturday night.
For the second year in a row, Michigan State will have a crucial road game against a power five team in the third week of the season. Last year's win at Miami was a bit of a coming out party for the Spartan program under Coach Mel Tucker's leadership. That win was a bellwether for what turned out to be a remarkably successful season. It was the first sign the Michigan State was once gain ready to run with the big dogs.
This year, Michigan State will travel to the west coast to face a similar challenge in the Washington Huskies. Instead of the south Florida heat and humidity, the Spartans will be contending with jetlag and a dubious history of struggles when it comes to regular season road victories west of the Mississippi River.
Despite the fact the Michigan State is now ranked in the top 10 of the coach's poll and Washington is unranked, the team wearing Green and White is the one who has been labeled as the underdog. Either way, a dog fight is expected: Huskies versus Spartan Dawgs.
One of the reasons that the Spartans were so successful in 2021 was the fact that Michigan State was able to close out tight games in the fourth quarter and win more than their share of coin-flip games. Some might call that dumb luck, but I am starting to believe that it has more to do with good coaching and the culture that Coach Mel Tucker has established in East Lansing. Saturday night will be one more chance to test this theory.
In other words in 2022, does that Spartan dawg hunt or not? Tune in on Saturday night to find out.
Picks of the Week
As is my weekly tradition, Figures 1 and 2 below give this week's projected point spreads for each of the 50 games involving two FBS teams. Figure 1 shows the projected point differentials from my algorithm relative to the opening point spreads, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Figure 2 shows a similar analysis using the picks from ESPN's FPI.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening DraftKings lines for Week Three. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening DraftKings lines for Week Three. |
Table 1 below summarizes the underdog picks that are implied from the figures above. In general both computer systems seem to be feeling a bit frisky this week. Combined, the machines predict a total of 10 upsets, three of which overlap. One of those picks that the computers agree upon happens to be Michigan State over Washington.
Other notable upset picks this week include Old Dominion over Virginia, Western Kentucky over Indiana, and BYU over Oregon. My simulation of the week using the opening point spreads suggest that a total of 9.1 plus-or-minus 2.6 upsets will actually occur.
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Table 1: Summary of upset picks for Week Three
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Table 2 below summarizes the recommended wagers that are implied from Figures 1 and 2 above (i.e. the games that fall outside of the dotted diagonal lines.)
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Table 2: Picks against the opening spread for Week Three. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.
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The friskiness from the computers has continued with this week's recommend bets. My algorithm suggests a total of 11 bets while my analysis of the FPI data suggests a total 12. Four of the recommended bets overlap in this case, including Texas to cover vs. Texas San Antonio.
Hopefully the computers are not barking up the wrong tree or else they both might find themselves in the doghouse come Sunday morning.
MSU and Big Ten Overview
The careful reader has probably already noticed that the Spartans' game against the Huskies appears in both Table 1 and Table 2 this week. Not only do both computers predict an upset in Seattle, my algorithm also flags Michigan State to cover the opening spread of 3.5 points.
Based on this spread, the Spartans have about a 40 percent chance of returning the west coast with the victory. If Michigan State can pull off the win, they will break a rather dubious streak of having l
ost the previous 13 straight regular season west coast road games. The last regular season west-coast win for the Spartans was a 19-0 victory at Cal in 1957. Woof.
In the four previous losses during this streak (at Hawaii in 2004, at Cal in 2008, at Oregon in 2014, and at Arizona State in 2018) the Green and White also went 0-4 against the spread. Double woof.
The Spartans and Huskies have only met three times before. They split a home-at-home series in 1969 and 1970. In 1997, a Nick Saban-coached Michigan State squad lost to Washington in the Aloha Bowl. As a result, the Huskies hold a narrow 2-1 lead in the all-time series.
While all of these intangibles are certainly not in the Spartan's favor, as the data in the previous section shows, my computer remains confident. My official data-driven prediction is Michigan State 32 and Washington 23. Streaks are meant to be broken.
While the Spartans have struggled in regular season games on the west coast during the regular season, the post season has not been a problem. In fact, eight of the Spartans' 11 wins in Bowl games over the last 50 years occurred west of the Mississippi River. While I am certainly nervous about this week's game, I will choose to be optimistic.
As for the rest of the action in the Big Ten, Table 3 below summarizes the lines and computer predictions for all 12 games involving Big Ten teams this week.
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Table 3: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Three, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.
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The Big Ten slate has a few interesting games on tap this weekend. The newly coach-less Nebraska Corn Huskers are big underdogs versus Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa, and Rutgers are all double-digit favorites over Group of Five level opponents. Minnesota is also close to a 30-point favorite over Colorado, who are off to a brutal start in 2022.
None of those games are likely to be competitive. That said, it seems reasonable to ask if Iowa is capable of scoring enough points to even beat a Nevada team who is fresh off a Week Two 14-point loss to an FBS team called Incarnate Word. Triple woof.
The remaining four Big Ten games all have some good entertainment potential. The headliner of the week is Penn State's trip to Auburn. The Nittany Lions are off to a strong start so far with a win at Purdue and a blow out of Ohio. By contrast, the Tigers put two rather lackluster wins in a row together against Mercer and San Jose State. The computer and Vegas both like Penn State here, and a second Power Five road win in three weeks would confirm that the Nittany Lions are a legitimate threat in the Big Ten East.
Maryland and Indiana host SMU and Western Kentucky, respectively this week. These Group-of-Five opponents are could certainly challenge the Terrapins and Hoosiers. The computers both like Maryland to cover the spread, but not Indiana. In fact, the FPI calls for an upset in Bloomington.
But the under-the-radar most interesting Big Ten game this week is Purdue at Syracuse, which opened as a pick'em on DraftKings. Syracuse is off to a surprisingly good start and Purdue very nearly knocked off Penn State in Week One. Interestingly, my most recent simulation of the full season gave both teams the best odds to win their respective conference divisions.
This result is likely still a bit of a mathematical anomaly due to the general sparseness of data at the beginning of the season. That said, it will be interesting to see which team will comes out on top in this match-up, and how there season progresses from there.
Notable National Action
Let's now take a spin around the rest of the country to see what other notable action will be taking place. Table 4 below gives the details for the remaining games teams that I will have my eye on this weekend.
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Table 4: Summary of other notable national action in Week Three, including my algorithms' projected scores.
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There are a few early season SEC and ACC match-ups, but the only one that might impact a division race is Mississippi State (-3) at LSU. My algorithm projects an easy win for the visiting Bulldogs, while the FPI predicts an upset.
Table 4 also highlights four additional non-conference games between two Power Five-level teams. The most interesting games in this group are BYU at Oregon (-3.5) and Miami at Texas A&M (-5.5). Both the Ducks and the Aggies have had humbling starts to the season and I am sure both programs want to show that they have not completely gone to the dogs. Interestingly, my computer projects a BYU upset while the FPI projects an upset win by Miami.
Finally, Table 4 also summarizes seven games involving Group of Five teams that are worth a look. Pittsburgh (-9.5) will look to avenge last year's loss to Western Michigan. A second upset by the Broncos would certainly help Michigan State's strength of schedule.
Three Pac-12 teams (USC, Utah, and UCLA) have intriguing match-ups with a pair of solid Mountain West teams (Fresno State and San Diego State) and a Sun Belt team (South Alabama). The spread in all three games is in the double digits, but my algorithm especially likes South Alabama. Can the Sunbelt bite another Power Five team?
Finally, there is a pair of interesting interstate match-ups in the form of Miami of Ohio at Cincinnati and South Florida at Florida. These game bsoth project as 20-plus point blowouts. That said, Miami was the preseason MAC East favorite, and the motivation for the underdogs in likely to be high in both games
That is all the advice that I have to give this week. It's time to bring this shaggy dog story to an end. Until next time, enjoy and Go State; beat the Huskies!
See Also: https://www.sbnation.com/e/23116472
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