2022 Week 4 Preview: Fore!

Throughout the course of any college football season, there are bound to a few dog-legged twists and turns. The Michigan State Spartans had a couple of good shots to start the season, but they ran into a bit of a hazard last week at Washington. As the Spartans enter Week Four (Fore?) they find themselves in the rough.

With one loss on the scorecard already, one mulligan has been used up. I guess we're playing for keeps now. I guess the kidding around is pretty much over. Out of nowhere, the current Michigan State season is starting to feel like a Cinderella story. The Spartans need to make their next few shots count.

This week's opponent is the Minnesota Golden Gophers. As for their mascot, any graduate of a land grant University will tell you that gophers are varmints. They're one of the lowest members of the food chain. The University of Minnesota could just as easily replace Goldie with a rat. (Just kidding, Minnesota fans. People don't say that about you, as far as you know.)

As for the Gophers' schedule so far, it's a disgrace. Now, I don't want to sell them short; New Mexico State and Colorado are no slouches. The fact is, they are tremendous slouches. Furthermore, rumor has it that Minnesota tried to schedule a roll of damp paper towels for Week Two, but the towels were otherwise occupied in Ann Arbor. The Gophers instead had to settle for Western Illinois. Rodent, please.

This week, it is up to the Spartans to teach the Gophers a lesson about what it's like to be a decent, upstanding member of the Big Ten. So, how will the Spartans accomplish this? 

In times like these, it is sometime helpful to defer to an expert. Based on my extensive knowledge of the theatre, I can think of no better expert on Gophers than the Carl Spackler (Bill Murray) from fine 1980 documentary film Caddyshack. On the subject of Gophers, Spackler said approximately the following:

"To defeat this enemy, you must know your enemy, and in this case the enemy is a varmint. And a varmint will never quit - ever. So you have to fall back on superior coaching and superior athleticism. And that's all she wrote." 

Hmmm. Considering how that film ended, perhaps addition sources of advice are needed...

Personally, I am optimistic that the Spartans can play through their problems. First, Minnesota prefers more of a ground-based attack (as one would expect from Gophers). Fortunately, Michigan State's strength on defense is stopping the run. So, they have that going for them, which is nice.

Second, I think that this game may come down to Michigan State's quarterback Payton Thorne and the Spartan passing attack. Thorne tried to rally the Spartans last week but came up short. This week, Thorne will have the benefit of home crowd. That could be the difference.

To this end, perhaps we can draw inspiration from Caddyshack. This time, let's focus on the sage words of Ty Webb (Chevy Chase) who said:

"I'm going to give you a little advice. There's a force in the universe that makes things happen. And all you have to do is get in touch with it, stop thinking, let things happen, and be the ball."

Be the ball, Payton.

Well, I have no interest in keeping you waiting. So, while we're young, let us make the turn to this week's Bad Betting Advice.

Picks of the Week

As is my weekly tradition, Figures 1 and 2 below give this week's projected point spreads for each of the 60 games involving two FBS teams. Figure 1 shows the projected point differentials from my algorithm relative to the opening point spreads, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Figure 2 shows a similar analysis using the picks from ESPN's FPI.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening DraftKings lines for Week Four.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening DraftKings lines for Week Four.

Table 1 below summarizes the upset picks that are derived from the two figures above. My algorithm suggests a total of three upset picks this week while the FPI contributes an additional four picks. There is exactly one upset pick where both of the machines agree: a pick for Michigan State to upset Minnesota. 

Table 1: Summary of upset picks for Week Fore!

So far this year, my algorithm and the FPI have agreed on a total of five upset picks. Three of those actually occurred. One of them was for Michigan State to beat Washington last week. Do with this information what you will. Also note that my weekly simulation predicts that a total of 12.1 plus-or-minus 2.9 upsets will be par for the course in Week Four.

Table 2 below summarizes the recommended wagers that are implied from Figures 1 and 2 above (i.e. the games that fall outside of the dotted diagonal lines.)

Table 2: Picks against the opening spread for Week Four. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

Despite a stormy start to the season, my algorithm is charging ahead with a total of 10 recommended bets against the spread (ATS) in Week Four. My analysis of the FPI data produces an additional four recommended bets. In this case, the computers only agree on one bet: Memphis to cover an 11.5-point spread versus North Texas.

MSU and Big Ten Overview

For the second week in a row, Michigan State opened as an underdog, but the computers predict a victory. That did not work out so well in Week Three. Will Week Four be any better? 

In general, my analysis tells me that the spread is the most robust predictor of the outcome of any sporting event. Based on the opening line of +2.5, the data suggests that the Green and White have about a 43 percent change of feeling alright at the end of the night.

The Spartans' lead the overall series with the Gophers 30-17, but recently the series has been streaky. Michigan State won 17 games in a row in the series between 1977 and 1997. The Gophers then went on a run by winning six of the next eight games. But since 2010, the Spartans have won five games in a row, most recently in 2017.

That said, Minnesota has also covered the spread in five of the last six games against the Spartans.

As for 2022, I will give my computer another chance to get this one correct. It likes a final score of Michigan State 31, Minnesota 24. The current over / under as listed on DraftKings is 51 points. My computer suggests a bet on the over.

A summary of the remaining games involving Big Ten teams can be found below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Four, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Five of the remaining Big Ten teams will be wrapping up their non-conference schedule this week. Purdue, Penn State, and Illinois are all heavy favorites, while Nebraska is taking a break in the clubhouse for the weekend. In theory, Northwestern (-7) has a winnable game against Miami of Ohio, while Indiana is a double-digit underdog at Cincinnati. 

The computers generally suggest that all four of those five teams will cover the spread. The exception is Northwestern who, let's be honest, should be happy if they simply can make it home with a win. That said, the FPI also predicts that Florida Atlantic will cover against the Boilermakers.

The remaining three games are all conference match-ups. Michigan (-17) and Ohio State (-17.5) are both big favorites at home against Maryland and Wisconsin. Ohio State has clearly faced a tougher non-conference schedule than has Michigan, but they are also facing a tougher opponent in Week Four. Either way these two contests should provide more clarity for the upcoming Big Ten East race.

In the final game on the schedule, Iowa (-8) travels to Rutgers in what will most likely be another defensive struggle. The current over / under is listed as 35-points on DraftKings. My calculations recommend taking the under.

Notable National Action

Let's close out today's round with a quick look at other games of note. Table 4 below gives the details for the remaining games teams that I will be watching out for this weekend.

Table 4: Summary of other notable national action in Week Four, including my algorithm’s projected scores.

Week Four is not likely to shine much light on the SEC race as both Alabama and Georgia are over 40-point favorites. That said we should learn a little about which teams may be able to challenge them. 

In the SEC West, both Texas A&M and Arkansas have had some up and down moments already this year. They face each other in College Station this weekend where the Aggies are currently a 2.5-point favorite. In the SEC East, Tennessee likely need to survive a visit from Florida (+11) if the Volunteers hope to challenge Georgia for the division title.

In ACC action, Clemson is less that a touchdown favorite at Wake Forest (+6.5) this week in what could be the sneaky-tricky game of the weekend. If the Tiger lose, that means that my computer might actually be correct with the idea that Syracuse is the team to beat in the ACC Atlantic Division. That said, the Orangemen will need to continue to win games such as this weekend's match with Virginia (+10).

In the Big 12, my computer is currently projecting that Texas and Oklahoma will emerge as the top two teams in the conference. The Longhorns (-4) will need to prove themselves in Lubbock this week at Texas Tech, while the Sooners draw Kansas State (+13) at home.

In Pac-12 action, USC and Oregon current sit at the top of the conference leaderboard based on my calculations, and both teams open conference play with tricky road games. USC (-6.5) travels to Oregon State and Oregon (-5) faces Washington State. Interestingly, my computer predicts that the road team will not cover in either contest. In addition, I will also be keeping my eye on Washington (who hosts Stanford) for Spartan strength of schedule purposes.

Finally, there are four Group of Five teams (in addition to Cincinatti) that are worth tracking this week. Toledo, Appalachian State, James Madison, Tulane, and South Alabama all currently are sitting in the top seven of my current Group of Five leaderboard. Appalachian State (-9) is hosting James Madison, while the other three teams are favored this week. It will be interesting to see which teams will be able to stay in the lead group.

That is all the advice that I have to give this week. Hopefully there are fewer than nine-to-18 holes in my recommendations this time. I don't make any promises. Until next time, enjoy and Go State; beat the Gophers!

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