It seems like a lifetime ago, but two weeks ago, the Michigan State Spartans were 2-0 and ranked in the top 10 of the Coach's Poll. The last two weeks have been disappointing to say the least. It feels almost as if Spartan fans have passed through some sort of black mirror into a darker dimension of pain.
Last week's beating in Seattle was no fun at all. But the Spartans did attempt a late rally and there was at least some reasonable travel-based excuses for why Michigan State may not have been operating at peak performance.
But Saturday's beat-down at the hand of the Golden Gophers was a completely different story. The Spartans were playing at home and the coaching staff should have had the team's full attention. Starting with the National Anthem and ending with the final whistle, the Spartan were flat-out humiliated by a team from the Big Ten West.
As we will see below, the prospects for the Spartans' season have taken a serious nosedive. Over the summer and into the first two weeks of the season, Spartan fans expected the Green and White to be right back in the mix for a possible New Year's Six Bowl. Now, just getting to any bowl game seems like a win.
It is honestly hard to fathom how things went south so quickly over such a short period of time. Sure, there were concerns coming into the season about the offensive line and the running back position. There was also serious concern about the pass defense. It seasoned reasonable to expect that at least some of these areas would at least be serviceable. Four weeks into the season, they are all anything but.
Instead, the Spartans are now contending with an increasing list of injured players and a schedule that seems to get harder by the week. Add a couple of bad bounces, lose the turnover battle, face a hot quarterback, and you wind up getting trucked by a team with a rodent for a mascot.
While I would love to wrap up this opening section with words of wisdom and optimism as to how and why the Spartans will turn this season around, I really have don't have much for you. But what I will say is that sometimes the weight of expectations can be a heavy burden. Once that weight is lifted, it can be a freeing experience.
The Spartans must simply take things one game at a time, one practice at a time, and one play at a time with a goal of getting just getting better. Will that be enough to somehow salvage this once promising season? Perhaps not, but for now, it is all that they can do.
Week Four Results
As is my weekly tradition, Figure 1 below shows the results of all 60 games involving two FBS teams in Week Two.
 |
Figure 1: Results of Week Four showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread
|
A handful of teams overachieved significantly relative to the opening spread this week including Louisville, Temple, Cal, and West Virginia. Unfortunately that list also includes Minnesota and San Jose State (who beat Western Michigan). The only good news this week from a Michigan State perspective was that Washington and Akron both beat the spread.
The teams this week who underachieved significantly, yet still won include, Georgia, Liberty, Kentucky, and Purdue. A total of 13 teams were not as lucky and wound up on the upset list this week. Those teams are summarized below in Table 1 along with the upset picks made by both my algorithm and ESPN's FPI last week.
 |
| Table 1: Upsets in Week Four based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week |
While losing to Minnesota was certainly bad, there are teams out there who had even worse weeks. Miami was a 26-point favorite against some school called Middle Tennessee State. The Hurricanes lost by two touchdowns and now own the honor as the team who suffered the worst upset (so far) of the 2022 season. Northwestern, Boise State, Oklahoma, and Texas all also suffered upset losses this week.
If Michigan State's performance on the field this weekend was poor, my algorithm's performance was even worse. My computer went zero-for-three on upset picks in Week Four, bring the year-to-date score to 3-16 (16 percent). That's simply terrifying.
As for FPI, despite my dogging of the algorithm early on this year, ESPN's metal-headed machine went 2-3 this week on upset picks and is currently sitting north of 42 percent for the year.
Table 2 below gives the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice against the spread (ATS).
 |
Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Four.
|
The results here are downright dystopian. The nosedive continues for my algorithm which went a shocking 1-9 this week with a year-to-date performance of 8-20 (29 percent). The FPI was not much better at 1-4, which bring the performance of ESPN's algorithm down to 14-21 (40 percent) for the year.
Overall, both the FPI and my system went 27-33 (45 percent) against the opening spread in Week Four. For the year, both algorithms are performing at right around 47 percent year-to-date.
Much like the Michigan State football team, I have little or no explanation for the terrible performance of my algorithm so far this year. All that I can say is that my machine perhaps still has a thing or two to learn. So far this year its intelligence has been largely artificial.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
In Big Ten action this week, the conference did not exactly shine in non-conference play. Indiana was blown out by Cincinnati and Northwestern was upset by Miami of Ohio at home. Both Penn State and Purdue struggled a bit and failed to cover against Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic, respectively.
In conference play, Iowa and Ohio State managed to win and cover versus Rutgers and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, in Ann Abor, the Wolverines had trouble putting away Maryland and failed to cover by a touchdown.
Based on these results, the updated Big Ten odds, based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining regular season is shown below in Table 3.
 |
| Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Four |
Ohio State overperformed in Week Four while Penn State and Michigan both underperformed. As a result the odds for hte Buckeyes to win the Big Ten East rose to 55 percent this week. The Scarlet and Gray also now have just under a 50 percent shot to make the playoffs, which is the highest odds of any team not named Georgia (65 percent).
In the Big Ten West, my computer has finally come around to the idea that Minnesota might actually be the current frontrunner to make their first trip to the Big Ten Championship game. The Gophers' odds to win the West now sit at 39 percent with Illinois (28 percent), Iowa (16 percent), and Wisconsin (13 percent) still solidly in contention.
Illinois is an odd outlier. The Illini jumped up to No. 4 in my power ranking this week, which may seem ridiculous considering the Illini lost at Indiana in Week Two. That said, Illinois has only allowed nine total points on defense in their other three games combined. While I don't think that Illinois is a top ten team by any stretch of the imagination, I do think that they are better than most people think.
As for Michigan State, the Spartans dropped to No. 42 in my power rankings following Week Four. The Spartans now have less than a one percent chance to win the their division. Just to add insult to injury, Michigan State's overall strength of schedule now ranks No. 3 overall in the country.
Michigan State's remaining schedule
Table 4 below shows the updated win distribution matrix for each Big Ten team following the action in Week Four.
 |
| Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Four.
|
As expected, the situation for Michigan State suddenly looks rather dark. The expected win total for the year has free fallen down to 4.98, which is a drop of two full games since Week Three.
The win distribution odds now give the Spartans just a 35 percent chance of getting to the six wins which are most likely needed to secure a bowl bid. The odds that Michigan State simply achieves the over on the preseason win total of 7.5 is now just at six percent.
Figure 2 below provides a more detailed breakdown of Michigan State's remaining schedule.
 |
| Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Four and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. |
At this point, the Spartans only project to be favored in two of the remaining eight games on the schedule, which are the two November home games against Rutgers and Indiana. The odds and projected point spreads in those games are also now nosing down. The projected spread for the Indiana game is now below a touchdown.
If the Spartans are going to turn things around enough in 2022 to make a bowl game, they need to win both of the November home games and find a way to win two additional games. Based on Figure 1, the most likely candidates are next week's road game at Maryland (+5.5) and the October 8 home game against Wisconsin (+3). Note that my computer's projected spread next week at Maryland is pretty close (but slightly optimistic) compared to the actual opening spread of +7.
The remaining four games on the schedule all project to have a spread of roughly two touchdowns. Now, I would guess that the actual spread against Ohio State will be much higher (+15 million feels about right), but as I mentioned above, my computer seems to be overvaluing Illinois by quite a bit right now. As such, I would expect that spread to be much lower when that game comes around.
Finally, I would also like to remind everyone that college football by nature is still a very high-variance game. Teams that are double-digit underdogs win a few games every week. Table 1 has over a half dozen examples just this week. So, while things certainly feel bleak this week, the math says that there is a 50-50 chance that the Spartans will steal a win over one or more of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, as bizarre as that may sound.
National Overview
To round things out this week, let's take a quick looks at the other national action in Week Four.
In the SEC, basically all of divisional contenders underperformed this week, with the exception of Alabama. As a result, the race looks essentially unchanged in both sides of the conference. In the East, Georgia (78 percent) still has a commanding lead in odds with Kentucky (13 percent), and Tennessee (nine percent still in the race). In the SEC West, Alabama (55 percent) is the clear leader with Ole Miss (21 percent) as the most likely challenger.
The Big 12 had it share of drama this weekend as both Texas and Oklahoma were upset by Texas Tech and Kansas State respectively. Oklahoma (47 percent) is still in the top two of odds to make the conference championship game, but Kansas State (49 percent) has now jumped into first place in my odds table. Texas (29 percent) and Baylor (29 percent) are now neck-and-neck for third place.
In the ACC, the races in both the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions are shaping up to be competitive, but it might have more to do with the none of teams in the conference are actually any good. The Atlantic Division now has four undefeated teams (Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, and North Carolina State) who keep winning in rather unimpressive fashion. Clemson (29 percent) has reclaimed the top spot in my odds table, but the other three teams all have odds of at least 20 percent and none of those teams are ranked in my current top 20.
In the ACC Coastal Division, the situation is somehow even worse. With Miami's loss to Middle Tennesse State and Pittsburgh rather underwhelming win over Rhode Island from the FCS, there is not a single team ranked in my current top 40. Pittsburg (32 percent) has the best odds to make the ACC Championship game and second place now belongs to Duke (22 precent). Yikes.
In the Pac-12 this week, both USC and Oregon avoided scares at the hands of Oregon State and Washington State, respectively while Utah easily handled Arizona State. The Trojans (68 percent) are still holding onto the top spot on my Pac-12 leaderboard with Utah (47 percent), Oregon (29 percent), and Washington (25 percent) still in solid contention.
Finally, it was quietly a wild weekend in the Group of Five this week as four of the top five teams on last week's Group of Five Leaderboard suffered upset loses (Tulane, Boise State, Appalachian State, and Toledo). In addition, Louisiana was upset by Louisiana Monroe in Sun Belt action.
The Goup of Five slot now looks like it will almost certain go to the winner of either the American Athletic Conference or the Sun belt. In the AAC, Cincinnati (35 percent) has the highest odds with UCF (17 percent) and Tulane (18 percent) in contention. In the Sunbelt, my calculations now give FBS newcomer James Madison the bests odds to win the conference (40 percent) over South Alabama (23 percent). That said, it appears that James Madison is not eligible for either the Sun Belt Championship Game or a Bowl Game as they complete their transition to the FBS.
Against All Odds, we have reached the end for this week. Stay tuned for a new batch of Bad Betting Advice coming soon. Until then, enjoy, chins up, and Go State; beat the Terrapins!
See also: https://www.sbnation.com/e/23136978
Comments
Post a Comment