MSU Hoops Odds Update: Trendy

When I look back over the last several odds updates, I have identified a trend. This is now the third update in a row where the Michigan State Spartans have split the previous two games. In fact, the Spartans have not won two games in a row since the seven-game win streak came to an end in Champaign, Ill. 

As a result, Michigan State continues to hover right around .500 in Big Ten play. With only seven Big Ten games remaining, time is running short for the Spartans to make their seemingly annual mid-February run. 

Many people, including your truly, made the prediction that the Spartans would beat Rutgers in New York City last weekend. I expected to see a much sharper version of Tom Izzo's club that would be trending upward. I expected to see a version that had a chance to perhaps go 7-2 down the stretch.

While that is still a possibility, my confidence that it will happen is wavering, especially after watching stretches of Tuesday night's home win over Maryland. In times like these, I find it helpful to dig into the numbers to see what the cold, hard facts have to say about the Spartans' potential fate and other Big Ten trends as March looms on the horizon.

Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 65% of the regular season now complete.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 10, 2023.

The Purdue Boilermakers were not a trendy pick to win the conference in the preseason, but they continue to hold a three-and-a-half game lead in the standings with just six games left. As we will see, the Big Ten race is all but over and it has been for a few weeks. 

Just behind Purdue is a cluster of teams eight teams (including Michigan State) that all have either five or six conference losses. Northwestern has a slight edge over the field with a "+2" rating, which is a result of the Wildcats having two more road wins than home losses. Five of the other teams in this cluster are at "+1," while Iowa and Michigan State are net zero in road wins versus home losses.

The Wisconsin Badgers are a game back of this cluster, but are also sitting at zero in plus/minus. Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Minnesota are strongly trending towards the bottom four.

More information on the Big Ten race can be gleamed from an analysis of expected wins. Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten win matrix as of Feb. 10 which is based on the results of a 30,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation which uses Kenpom efficiencies to derive the odds for all remaining Big Ten games.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 10, 2023

Table 2 provides a better feel for where each team is likely to finish in the final standings. Purdue is likely to lose just one more game to finish at 17-3, while Rutgers is still on track to finish in second place at roughly 13-7. After that, we are finally starting to see some separation in the middle of the pack.

Currently, there are a total of four teams with expected win totals between 11.0 and 12.0. Within this group, Indiana (11.8) has a slight edge over Illinois (11.5), Maryland (11.5), and Iowa (11.3).

Next up is a group of three teams with an expected win total between 10.0 and 11.0. Michigan (10.9) and Michigan State (10.9) are now in a virtual tie with other each with Northwestern (10.7) just a fraction of a win behind. 

The remainder of Table 2 mirrors the standings shown in Table 1. Wisconsin has the inside track to avoid the bottom four of the conference.

For completeness, Table 3 gives the current Big Ten regular season championship odds.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 10, 2023.

The Boilermakers' odds of winning or sharing a Big Ten title are now greater than 99%. Rutgers (2.4%) still has an increasingly small chance to sneak into a tie. No other team has odds over 1%, including the Spartans, whose odds I now estimate to be 1-in-3,000.

Strength of Schedule Update

Figure 1 below shows the updated strengths of schedule for the remainder of the Big Ten schedule.

Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule (SoS) for the remaining conference games as of Jan. 30, 2023. SoS is calculated as the expected win percentage an average high-major team would have if they were to play each team's remaining schedule.

For the entire month of January, Michigan State graded out with the most difficult remaining schedule in the Big Ten. A week ago, the Spartans finally moved to the middle of the pack. Now, Michigan State holds the fourth easiest remaining conference schedule.

Unfortunately, the Spartans are jockeying for position with three other teams that have even easier remaining schedules (Rutgers, Iowa, and Maryland). That said, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Northwestern all have notably more difficult schedules which could benefit Michigan State in the home stretch.

For reference, Figure 2 below shows the overall strength of schedule data for each team, including the raw calculations and the corrected value (which attempts to adjust for the benefit or penalty that each team gets for not having the chance to play themselves). 

Figure 2: Updated Big Ten overall strengths of schedule using the raw values (left) and the corrected values (right) which accounts for the benefit (or penalty) for a team to not need to play themselves.

For the record, Michigan State has currently played the most difficult conference schedule of any Big Ten team. By the end of the regular season, the Spartans' schedule will likely finish as the third most difficult.

Big Ten Tournament Odds

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 49 Big Ten conference games left. Instead we can accurately project the odds that each team will earn each possible seed in the Big Ten Tournament using simulation.

Table 4 below provides these odds.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb. 10, 2023. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update last week

Purdue is not yet locked into a top four seed and double bye in the Big Ten Tournament, but they are very close to it. Rutgers also has very high odds (81%) to claim a top-four spot. But, the other two spots are very much up for grabs.

Of the remaining teams, Indiana (47%), Iowa (42%), Maryland (36%), and Illinois (34%) have the best odds to earn a double bye. Michigan State (20%), Michigan (20%), and Northwestern (18%) are also all still very much in play to claim a top-four spot.

As for the bottom four teams that will start play on the first day of the Big Ten tournament, Minnesota does appear locked in a bottom-four spot. Nebraska (98%) and Ohio State (96%) will both also almost certainly be joining the Golden Gophers when the tournament starts on Wednesday. Penn State (68%) is the most likely fourth member of the group, although Wisconsin (20%) may join them instead.

As for Michigan State, the Spartans currently project to secure the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten tournament. That said, we can learn more about the Spartans' potential fate by looking more closely at the numbers.

Figure 3 below summarizes the odds for Michigan State to earn each seed in the Big Ten tournament depending on how many conference wins the Spartans have at the end of the season.

Figure 4: Distribution of Michigan State's 2023 Big Ten Tournament seed based on the number of final conference wins.

Moving from right to left and from optimism to pessimism, a final Big Ten record of 14-6 or 13-7 will almost certainly result in a double bye for the Spartans. The best-case scenario is the No. 2 seed which is most likely in the 14-6 scenario where Michigan State runs the table. If the Spartans finish at 13-7, the No. 3 seed is most likely.

If the Spartans win 12 conference games, the odds of a double bye are 46%. In this case, the No. 5 seed is the most likely outcome. A final record of 11-9 mostly likely translates to the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. If Michigan State finishes at just .500 in conference play, the No. 8 or No. 9 seed is the most likely destination.

In the worst-case scenarios (which have a combined probability of just 13%), if Michigan State finishes at 9-11, there is still about a 90% chance of avoiding the bottom four. If the Spartans somehow win no more than one more game (which has only a 2.5% chance), a bottom-four finish becomes probable.

Figure 5 below provides some additional insight into the upcoming Big Ten Tournament. I was also able to calculate the odds for the team Michigan State will face first.

Figure 5: Odds each team will be Michigan State's first opponent in the 2023 Big Ten Basketball Tournament

As of Feb. 10, Wisconsin is the most likely first opponent for Michigan State. Ohio State, Penn State, and Northwestern round out the top four teams on the list.

Table 5 below shows the updated odds for each team to advance and potentially win the Big Ten Tournament.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Jan. 30, 2023.

Note that "the field" still has better odds than Purdue (39%) to win the tournament. Michigan State's odds currently stand at just under 4% with about a 10% chance to make the tournament finals.

Michigan State Schedule and Outlook

Figure 6 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games. 

Figure 6: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

Figure 6 reinforces much of what has been discussed above. Michigan State's schedule so far has been very challenging. The final seven games look a bit easier, and there is a major opportunity to make a move up the standings.

So far, the Spartans have played only two games against the teams currently projected to finish in the bottom four of the conference (a home game against Nebraska and a road game at Penn State). In the final stretch, Michigan State will play four of the final seven games against teams at the bottom of the standings (Ohio State twice, Minnesota, and at Nebraska). 

As for the other three games, the contests at Michigan and at home versus Indiana both project as toss-ups, while the road game at Iowa is tough, but winnable. With this schedule, it is not hard to imagine Michigan State going on a serious run. 

A major wildcard, however, is the pair of games against Ohio State. From one point of view, the Buckeyes are clearly struggling. Ohio State has lost ten of their previous 11 games after starting the season 10-3. They appear to be in free fall and trending towards the NIT.

But the Buckeyes literally grade out as the unluckiest team in the country on Kenpom. My calculations show that Ohio State has lost just over three-and-a-half more conference games than expected, which is extremely high over just 13 games. Penn State is the second least lucky Big Ten team at just -0.86 wins versus expectation.

The "luck" metric is a strange one and it is sometimes hard to interpret. It can mean a team is truly unlucky and may be due (in this case) to buck that trend and regress back up to the mean. It could also mean that they are simply regressing and the predictive metrics (such as Kenpom) have not yet caught up. The Buckeyes clearly have talent. In fact, their sole win over the past two months was a 16-point win over Iowa. But do they still have the will?

Will Ohio State roll over, allowing Michigan State to finally win two in a row and begin a climb into the upper portions of the Big Ten standing? Or, will the Buckeyes play with their hair on fire, dropping the Spartans to .500 in conference play once again? We will all find out together on Sunday afternoon, and the fate of Michigan State's season partially hangs in the balance.