Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

The past few years have been interesting for the Michigan State Spartans. The end of the 2021 season was marked by the celebration of a championship at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta. But the 2022 season was tough. At times it felt like the Spartans had been transported to a whole new continent and were playing a sport that was called football, except that it wasn’t actually football. (I mean seriously, what was that in the Minnesota game?). The end of the season saw the Spartans relegated to the ranks of the teams with no place to go for the holidays. Now, the year is 2023 and a new season is upon us. This is a big year for head coach Mel Tucker and his staff in East Lansing. If Spartan fans are generous enough to grant Tucker a mulligan for the COVID-impacted 2020 season, that still leaves one very good season and one mediocre to bad season on the resume. The 2023 campaign will give a strong indicator as to which season was the fluke. This fork in the road presents Spartan fans with a bit...

At long last, the wait is almost over. On the heals of last weekend’s “Week Zero” appetizer, we are mere hours away from the main course of college football that will be Week One.  Throughout the summer, I have conducted a math-driven deep dive into the 2023 college football season. I analyzed the preseason rankings, looked back at 2023, and taken a close look at the Michigan State Spartans, the Big Ten, the Power Five, Group of Five, and the postseason. Today is the final stop on that journey. In many of the previous installments of this series, I have referenced various odds that my Monte Carlo simulation of the season generates. Usually, I use these numbers to predict how each team’s schedule, conference, and the full season will play out. But there is a another, potentially more interesting use for this data. My simulation is not the only source of data that generates effective odds for the college football landscape. The various bookmakers in Las Vegas also generate odds for c...

The official college football season kicked off on Saturday with seven games in "Week Zero" action. Next week, the rest of the college football nation will take the field for the first time in 2023. The wait is officially over. During the summer, I have been spooling out the results of my annual preseason computer simulation of the entire season. So far, we have reviewed the accuracy of the preseason rankings and reviewed the results from 2022. In addition, I have completed an analysis of the regular season projections for the Michigan State Spartans, the Big Ten, the rest of the Power Five, and the Group of Five. Today, it is time to assemble all of those pieces in order to project what these simulations and scenarios mean for the college football post season. Which teams will make the college football playoffs? Which teams will fill out the rest of the New Years Six Bowls? We can attempt to answer those questions using the data presented so far. Review of Conference Results...

As the start of the college football season looms, we are continuing our simulation-based preview of the 2023 season. Several weeks ago, we began this journey by exploring the accuracy of the preseason rankings. We then reviewed the accuracy of the 2022 predictions, looked closely at what to expect from Michigan State this year, toured the Big Ten and then the rest of the Power Five conferences.  Today, it is time to complete the regular season picture with a quick look at the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision: the so-called Group of Five conferences. Let's kick things off with a quick look at the American Athletic Conference (AAC). AAC Odds and Predictions This year marks some major changes in the AAC as Cincinnati, Houston, and Central Florida have departed for the Big 12 while Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, and Alabama Birmingham have arrived from Conference USA.  While the total membership now stands at 14 total teams, the AAC is continuing to use the ...

This summer I have been your guide on a mathematical survey of the upcoming college football season. So far, I have analyzed the accuracy of the preseason rankings, taken a look back at the 2022 season, dissected the schedule of the Michigan State Spartans, and made some predictions about the Big Ten race. Today, it is time to move beyond the Big Ten and to take a deeper look at the rest of the races in the remaining Power Five conferences. As I have explained previously, I use a combination of the consensus of various preseason rankings, the historical uncertainty of those rankings, and my own power rankings system in order to simulate the results of the entire college football season. Using this method, I can calculate the expected number of wins for each team, the strength of schedule, the odds for various season event (such as winning their conference or division), and I can project each team's final record using two different sets of assumptions. Let's begin with a closer ...

Earlier this summer, I kicked off my annual simulation-based preview of the upcoming college football season. So far, we have analyzed the accuracy of the preseason rankings, looked back at the 2022 season results, and conducted a deep dive of the Michigan State Spartans' schedule. In today's installment, it is time to look more specifically at the overall Big Ten race, including the impact of the schedule, simulation results, and a few predictions. Strength of Schedule The concept of strength of schedule is an interesting topic in and of itself. Many people have made attempts to quantity strength of schedule over of years, but most these methods seem dubious, at best. These calculations often utilize winning percentages from the previous season, which tells us something, but at a very basic level. I have developed my own method to measure strength of schedule that is substantially more rigorous and useful (in my not-so humble opinion). The basic idea is to calculate the number...