2023 College Football Preview, Part 5: The Rest of the Power Five

This summer I have been your guide on a mathematical survey of the upcoming college football season. So far, I have analyzed the accuracy of the preseason rankings, taken a look back at the 2022 season, dissected the schedule of the Michigan State Spartans, and made some predictions about the Big Ten race.

Today, it is time to move beyond the Big Ten and to take a deeper look at the rest of the races in the remaining Power Five conferences. As I have explained previously, I use a combination of the consensus of various preseason rankings, the historical uncertainty of those rankings, and my own power rankings system in order to simulate the results of the entire college football season.

Using this method, I can calculate the expected number of wins for each team, the strength of schedule, the odds for various season event (such as winning their conference or division), and I can project each team's final record using two different sets of assumptions.

Let's begin with a closer look at the strongest Power Five league: the SEC.

SEC Odds and Predictions

For each conference, I will provide a data table which gives a summary of my calculation and simulation results. Table 1 below provides that summary for the SEC.

Table 1:  Summary of the preseason projections for the SEC, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season 

In the SEC East, the preseason consensus No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs have a 55% chance to repeat as the division champion. Georgia also happens to have one of the easiest schedules (ranked No. 54) of the Power Five teams. The team with the second-best odds in the east is No 14 Tennessee at 20%. Florida (No. 27), Kentucky (No. 29), and South Carolina (No. 31) are all similarly ranked in the preseason and all three teams have a 7-8% chance to earn a surprise division crown.

In the SEC West, my simulation gives a slight edge to No. 4 Alabama (35%) over No. 5 LSU (32%). No. 18 Ole Miss and No. 21 Texas A&M both have rough a 10% chance to win the West. Interestingly, the remaining three SEC West teams (No. 28 Arkansas, No. 34 Auburn, and No. 38 Mississippi State) all have a 4-5% chance to claim the division title. With all seven teams in the preseason top 40 the chase for the SEC West title could be a wild one.

The raw odds from the simulation and the two final projected records all give the same answer for how the SEC will play out: Georgia will narrowly edge Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. However, my "disruptive" scenario, which considers a historically reasonable number of road upsets, sheds light on some of the possible ways that the conference race could play out differently. 

The "most likely" scenario (where the projected favorite wins in every single game) has both Georgia and Alabama running the table to finish at 12-0. However, both teams pick up a single loss in the disruptive scenario. 

The most likely loss for Georgia is on the road at Tennessee. If this were to occur, the Volunteers would be in a much better position to steal the division title. But Tennessee has the distinct disadvantage of having to face Alabama, Florida, and Kentucky all on the road. The Vols would likely need to win two of those three games to stay ahead of the Bulldogs. Table 1 suggests that the rest of the SEC East will struggle just to stay over .500 in conference play.

In the SEC West, LSU is clearly the team that is the biggest threat to the Alabama Crimson Tide. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they must face Alabama in Tuskaloosa this year. Even if the Tide were to fall at Texas A&M, as my disruptive simulation suggests, LSU would need to upset Alabama at home to have any reasonable chance to win the division. 

That said, if LSU were to pull off this feat, the Tigers own the weakest conference schedule in the division. A road trip to Ole Miss is the only other game on the schedule that could be a problem, and a 7-1 conference record with a win over Alabama would almost certainly be enough to ensure a trip to the SEC Championship Game.

Big 12 Odds and Predictions

Table 2 gives the results of my simulation and related calculations for the newly expanded Big 12 conference. 2023 also marks the final year before Texas and Oklahoma depart to assume new roles as middle-of-the-pack SEC teams. 

In this case the odds for the "Div. Title" represents the odds to finish first or second in the final standings and to thus qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game.

Table 2: Summary of the preseason projections for the Big 12, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season. 

Similar to situation in the SEC, the raw odds and both projected scenarios come to the same conclusion: No. 8 Texas will defeat No. 16 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game. That said, the odds for the Texas Longhorns to advance to the championship game (47%) are below .500 and the odds for the Oklahoma Sooners (33%) are even worse. 

The Big 12 has three other teams in the consensus preseason top 25: No. 19 TCU (with a 24% chance to reach the conference championship game), No. 22 Kansas State (22%), and No. 25 Texas Tech (19%). In addition, No. 32 Baylor (13%) and No. 44 Oklahoma State (10%) both have at least a 1-in-10 chance to finish the regular season in one of those top two spots.

Texas is likely to be favored in all nine conference games this year, including the Red River Showdown in Dallas against Oklahoma. The most likely upset is when the Longhorns visit TCU and the road game at Baylor could also pose a challenge. Texas also hosts both Kansas State and Texas Tech, so there are opportunities for upsets.

Oklahoma draws a much easier schedule this year, as the Sooners host TCU and avoid Kansas State, Texas Tech and Baylor. Outside of the annual match-up with Texas, the only potential scary non-home game for the Sooners is the Bedlam Series tilt at Oklahoma State.

TCU has a very challenging schedule which includes road games at Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Baylor. This makes a return trip to the Big 12 Championship Game difficult for the Horned Frogs. 

Kansas State, however, may have a more direct path. If Kansas State can upset Texas in Austin, the Wildcats will have a great chance to finish at least 8-1 in conference play, which would very likely clinch a chance to defend their conference title.

Texas Tech has a similar path if the Red Raiders were to upset the Longhorns in Austin. In this case Texas Tech might even hold a tiebreaker over Kansas State as the Red Raiders face the Wild Cats at home. The only other game where Texas Tech is projected to be an underdog is a road trip to Baylor.

ACC Odds and Predictions

Table 3 gives the results of my simulation and related calculations for the ACC, which has also decided to eliminate divisions for the 2023 season and beyond. Similar to the Big 12, the top two teams at the end of the regular season will advance to the ACC Championship Game.

Table 3: Summary of the preseason projections for the ACC, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season. 

The data tells a story that is once again very similar to the story in the SEC and the Big 12. Two teams rise to the top in the simulation and in the two projected scenarios. In all cases, No. 9 Floria State edges No. 10 Clemson in the ACC championship game. Both teams have over a 40% chance to reach the conference championship game.

No. 24 North Carolina (23%) has the next best odds to reach the conference title game, with No. 30 Miami (15%) and No. 35 Pittsburgh (15%) also with a reasonable chance to play for the conference title.

The conference schedule this year has Clemson hosting Florida State in the regular season, but the Tigers also happen to have a more difficult conference schedule overall compared to the Seminoles. Clemson hosts North Carolina and has a trio of tricky road games at Miami, North Carolina State, and Duke. The Tigers also host No. 11 Notre Dame and must travel to No. 31 South Carolina. 

Clemson runs the table to finish 12-0 in my "most likely" scenario, but the Tigers drop the game at Miami in my "disruptive" scenario. That said, I could also see Clemson dropping four or five games with that schedule if the Tigers are not quite as talented as expected.

Florida State has a conference schedule that includes road games at Clemson and Pittsburgh and home games Duke and Miami. In the non-conference, the Seminoles face No. 5 LSU in Orlando to open the season, and they finish the season playing at No. 27 Florida. Florida State loses to Clemson in both of my full-season scenarios. The Seminoles also split the contests with LSU and Florida in each of my two scenarios to finish at 10-2 either way.

As for potential dark horse candidates in the ACC race, North Carolina, Miami, Pittsburg, North Carolina State, Duke, and Louisville all project to finish conference play at 4-4 or 5-3 in my disruptive scenario. 

If I had to pick one of those teams to make a surprise appearance in the ACC Championship game, Pittsburgh has the most manageable schedule with Florida State, North Carolina, and Louisville all needing to visit the Tigers and Clemson not on the schedule at all. The toughest road game on the Panthers' schedule (outside of a non-conference visit to Notre Dame) is at Duke.

Pac-12 Odds and Predictions

Table 4 gives the results of my simulation and related calculations for what is almost certainly the final year of the Pac-12 as we know it today. In a growing trend, the Pac-12 has also scrapped the divisions and the top two teams will square off in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Table 4: Summary of the preseason projections for the Pac-12, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season. 

No. 6 USC is the highest ranked Pac-12 team in the preseason and the Trojans also draw the weakest overall conference schedule. As a result, USC has the best odds (52%) to return to the Pac-12 Championship Game. A road game at Oregon might be all that stands between USC and running the conference table, but the Trojans are not likely to be favored in the non-conference game at Notre Dame. 

As for the remaining slot in the conference title game, there are five Pac-12 teams ranked between No. 12 and No. 26 in the preseason. Those five teams (Washington, Utah, Oregon, Oregon State, and UCLA) have between a 15% and 36% chance to finish in the top two of the conference.

The Washington Huskies have the best odds (36%) of those five to reach the conference post-season. Washington will not be favored at USC, but they are the projected favorite in the other 11 games on the schedule. 

That said, my disruptive simulation suggests a different outcome. In that scenario, No. 20 Oregon State finishes the regular season in the first-place tie with the Trojans with home wins against Washington, Utah, and UCLA and a lone loss at Oregon to close the regular season. In this case, USC would be favored to beat Oregon State in the Pac-12 Championship game to claim the Pac-12 crown.

With a tour of the Power Five now complete, the potential college football postseason is starting to come into focus. But there is one piece remaining. At least one member of the current Group of Five conferences will earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. In the next installment of this series, we will take a closer look at the conference races in the Group of Five.