In the game of football, players in the so-called skill positions (quarterback, running back, and wide receivers) are the ones who tend to draw the most attention. But most football experts will tell you games are typically won or lost in the trenches by the offensive and defensive lines.
In 2021, the Michigan State Spartans boasted one of the most potent rushing attacks in the nation. Led by Doak Award Winner Kenneth Walker, the Spartans accumulated over 2,000 yards total on the ground with an average pick-up of 5.66 yards per carry by the tailbacks.
In 2022, however, the rushing production declined significantly. The Michigan State running back room accounted for just over 1,300 rushing yards and just 4.57 yards per carry. The Spartans' leading rusher in 2021, Jalen Berger, led the team with 683 yards, which was almost 1,000 yards less than the total from Walker (1,636) a year prior.
Granted, Kenneth Walker is a special talent, but at least a portion of the drop in production in 2022 was likely due to the position group that is the focus of today installment of Spartans Illustrated's 2023 position group preview series: the offensive line.
2022 Recap
Concerns on the offensive line began back in the spring of 2022. The Spartans were returning three starters from the 2021 line (Jarrett Horst, Matt Carrick, and J.D. Duplain) and all three players sat out the spring kickoff event with injuries. The only other available lineman who had seen significant playing time prior to 2022 was back-up center Nick Samac.
J.D. Duplain returned to full strength by the fall. Duplain and Samac both played over 740 snaps (of 818 total) for the season and stabilized the core of the line. However, the other three positions were plagued by injuries and inexperience.
Following the 2021 season, tackles A.J. Arcuri and Kevin Jarvis graduated. The Spartans started redshirt junior Spencer Brown at right tackle, who had played only 161 snaps in his first three years on campus. Brown wound up playing a total of 783 snaps in 2022, second on the offense only to Samac with 803.
As the season wore on, Horst and Carrick continued to battle injuries. The injuries to Horst forced redshirt sophomore Brandon Baldwin into action at the left tackle position, despite the fact that he had yet to see the field in East Lansing prior to the season. Both players ended the season with a little over 400 snaps a piece.
At the guard position, Carrick's injuries resulted in significant playing time for Washington State graduate transfer Brian Greene. However, Greene would also miss the final two games of the season, which resulted in the promotion of redshirt freshman Geno VanDerMark to the starting lineup for the final two games of the season. All three players logged between 200 and 360 snaps total. No other lineman on the roster saw more than 25 snaps total.
Projected 2023 Starting Line-up
The close of the 2022 saw the graduation and/or departure of Jarrett Horst, Matt Carrick, and Brian Greene. From both an experience and a health point of view, the situation on the offensive line in 2023 already looks significantly brighter.
The projected starting five for the Michigan State offensive line is the following
--Brandon Baldwin, No. 53 (redshirt junior with 405 snaps in 2022) at left tackle
--J.D. Duplain, No. 67 (fifth year senior with 742 snaps) at left guard
--Nick Samac, No. 59 (fifth-year senior with 803 snaps) at center
--Geno VanDeMark, No. 74 (redshirt sophomore with 215 snaps) at right guard
--Spencer Brown, No. 58 (redshirt senior with 783 snaps) at right tackle
This quintet logged close to a total of 3,000 snaps in 2022 and there were clearly the first-string offensive line during the spring football kickoff event at Spartan Stadium back in April.
Experience is nice, but it does not answer the question as to how these players performed last year and how we might expect them to play in 2023. In order to probe this question, the grades provided by Pro Football Focus provide some insight.
On running plays in 2022, Duplain (grade of 72.9) and Samac (70.3) both posted grades which place them solidly above average among Big Ten linemen at their positions, and in Duplain's case, in the top 20%.
Elsewhere on the line, the run blocking grades were not as strong. Brown's grade of 61.9 was slightly above average for Big Ten tackles. Baldwin (55.5) and VanDerMark (53.7) graded out much worse as both were well below average for their positions.
On passing downs, the grades turned out to be a bit better. Samac posted the third highest grade (80.3) for all Big Ten centers with more than 100 snaps. At the guard position, VanDerMark (90.9) and Duplain (83.0) posted two of the top three grades in the conference. The Spartans' eventual quarterback should receive solid protection from pressure in the middle of the field.
There does appear to be room for improvement at the tackle position. Baldwin (62.2) and Brown (61.1) both posted grades that are slightly below average compared to their Big Ten peers.
The good news is that Baldwin, Brown, and VanDeMark are all coming into only their second season of extended playing time. Based on the some of the comments at Big Ten Media Days from J.D. Duplain, there is reason to think that many of the younger players will show some improvement.
"I think we're all at our peak right now," Duplain said regarding the impact of summer conditioning. "I think I've had my best offseason yet, and I think that can be said for just about our entire offensive line. I think that this group is at the best it's been. We've taken this offseason extremely seriously, and we've been working every single day."
Second string and likely rotation members
Based on the evidence from both the spring football kickoff event and from the start of fall camp, the starting second-string offensive line is made up of the following Spartans:
--Keyshawn Blackstock, No. 54 (junior college transfer, with two years of eligibility remaining) at left tackle
--Evan Brunning, No. 57 (redshirt senior) at left guard
--Dallas Fincher, No. 72 (redshirt junior with 15 snaps in 2023) at center
--Kevin Wigenton, No. 70 (redshirt sophomore with 12 snaps) at right guard OR
--Kristian Phillips, No. 71 (redshirt freshman) at right guard
--Ethan Boyd, 77 (redshirt sophomore with 23 snaps) at left tackle
In the spring football kickoff event, Fincher played center for the second unit while Wigenton played right guard. Phillps appeared to be injured and did not participate in the event.
However, to open fall camp, projected starting center Nick Samac was held out, and Fincher played center with the first unit. In the second unit, Wigenton slid over to play center and Phillips repped at right guard.
Based on seniority and experience, I would expect to see Wigenton to be the first right guard off the bench instead of Phillips. Wigenton was also one of the younger players who Duplain shouted out at Big Ten Medias for having had a great offseason so far.
That said, if I were placing a wager on the second-string offensive linemen who are most likely to see significant playing time this fall (barring injuries), my money would be on the tackles, Blackstock and Boyd.
The Pro Football Focus numbers above highlight some of the struggles from Brown and Baldwin in 2022. Blackstock comes to East Lansing as the top-rated junior college transfer offensive lineman in the country. As for Boyd, at Big Ten Media Days Duplain mentioned Boyd's name no fewer than three times during the 30-minute session.
Other offensive lineman
Once again, the third string unit (and beyond) of the offensive line can be pieced together based on observations from the Spring Kickoff event and fall camp.
--Ashton Lepo, No. 66 (redshirt freshman) at left tackle
--Jacob Merritt, No. 69 (redshirt freshman) at left guard
--Cooper Terpstra, No. 55 (freshman) at left guard
--Andy Hartman, No. 76 (redshirt freshman) at left guard or center
--Cole Dellinger, No. 56 (freshman) at center
--Braden Miller, No. 64 (redshirt freshman) at right guard
--Gavin Broscious, No. 68 (redshirt freshman) at right or left guard
--Stanton Ramil, No. 65 (freshman) at right tackle
--Ben Nelson, No. 75 (redshirt freshman) walk-on offensive lineman
At this point, little is known about this group of young players. The best-case scenario for the Spartans would be for these players to continue to develop.
Check out the previous Spartans Illustrated 2023 positional breakdowns here:
Comments
Post a Comment