2023 Week 2 Preview: Across the Spider-Verse

I am just going to get this out of the way right off the bat. The team visiting East Lansing this week from the town of Richmond, Virginia has a cool mascot. They are the Spiders. They even have a cool logo. Check this out:

Amazing.

I believe spiders are an underrated and underutilized mascot. While they are merely arthropods, I am willing to bet far more people and intimidated, if not flat-out terrified by arachnids than they are by (for example) certain carrion eating weasels who no longer live in the state of Michigan. Amiright?

As for the football-playing spider people, Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings had Richmond ranked among the Football Championship Subdivision's mightiest heroes in the preseason at No. 14. But they proceeded to lose to No. 102 Morgan State, 17-10, at home last week. As a result, the Spiders have been downgraded to No. 33 in the FCS universe.

Unless a super-power granting radioactive spider got loose in the Richmond locker room last weekend, or unless large sections of the Richmond roster have been secretly replaced by ringers from a parallel version of Earth, Spartan fans should be able to breathe easy this weekend. The odds of a season-destroying canon event happing in Spartan Stadium are exceptionally low.

But for those Spartan fans who have a tendency towards arachnophobia or if your spidey senses are tingling due to a case of hypocynophobia (the fear of underdogs... which I just made up) then let me provide this fuel for your nightmares.

My computer gives Michigan State just below a 97% chance to win this weekend, which is just slightly better than the odds for a No. 2 seed to beat a No. 15 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. That's the good news. The bad news is both Michigan State and Richmond have been involved in two of the 10 total such upsets in history.

I imagine every Spartan fan recalls the Middle Tennessee State incident of 2016. Before Giddy Potts was even born, the first school to ever beat a No. 2 seed as a No. 15 seed was the Richmond Spiders, who upset No. 2 Syracuse in 1991. Neat.

MSU Prediction

The Richmond Spiders come to East Lansing this week as only the eighth opponent from the FCS to face the Spartans. Michigan State has never lost to an FCS opponent and, despite my warnings above, odds are that trend will continue. 

I used some mathematical tricks to translate Richmond's SP+ ranking into my power index and this tells me if Richmond were in the FBS, they would currently be ranked No. 128 out of 133 teams. There is no betting line on the game that I have seen, but both my system and SP+ project the Spartans should be around a 26-point favorite (which corresponds to a 97% chance of victory).

When I asked my computer to generate a final score, it gave me Michigan State 35, Richmond 9, which is my "official" prediction. That said, if the Spiders can only manage 10 points at home against a below-average FCS team, we really should see a larger point differential, potentially a shut-out, and lots and lots of underclassmen on the field in the second half.

Big Ten Overview

All 14 Big Ten teams are playing non-conference opponents this week. Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Two, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differential. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Twp, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Indiana, Ohio State, and Penn State join Michigan State in the society of teams who will be expected to beat FCS teams by at least 20 points on Saturday. In addition, Michigan, Maryland, and Minnesota are all huge favorites over UNLV (+35), Charlotte (+24.5), and Eastern Michigan (+21). Of that trio, the computers predict only the Golden Gophers will cover the spread.

The remaining seven games all could be quite competitive. Rutgers (-10) should be safe against Temple, but the remaining games all have point spreads closer than a touchdown and five of the six games are on the road.

Wisconsin (-5.5), Iowa (-3.5), and Purdue (-1.5) are all favored on the road against Washington State, Iowa State, and Virginia Tech, but the computers expect all three teams to swing in below the spread. In fact, the computers both have Iowa and Purdue on upset alert.

Northwestern opened as a pick 'em against UTEP. The FPI still believes in the Wildcats, while my computer favors the Miners. Rounding out the schedule, Nebraska (+2.5) and Illinois (+4) both opened as underdogs on the road at Colorado and at Kansas, respectively. The FPI predicts both Big Ten teams will score upset wins. My machine is not so sure.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football universe in Week 2. 

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Two, including my algorithms' projected scores.

The game of the week nationally is No. 11 Texas at No. 3 Alabama (-7) in a battle of future SEC foes. The computers both like the Crimson Tide to cover. There are several other SEC teams with potentially tricky Power Five matchups.

Mississippi State (-9) hosts Arizona, while Auburn (-7) visits California. The computers both predict a win for Mississippi State but expect Auburn to leave the Bay Area with a loss. Similarly, Texas A&M (-4.5) is favored on the road against Miami, but both machines have the Aggies on upset alert as well.

There are three interesting matchups this week between Big 12 and Pac-12 teams. Utah (-6) and Oregon (-6.5) are both favored on the road versus Baylor and Texas Tech. Oklahoma State (-3.5) is expected to cover on the road at Arizona State.

In the ACC, Pittsburgh (-8) hosts Cincinnati and the computers like the visiting Bearcats to cover.  Notre Dame (-8) will try to survive a tricky road game to North Carolina State.

In notable Group of Five action, Texas State scored a huge upset last week against Baylor. This week, the Bobcats will try to do the same against American Athletic Conference contender Texas San Antonio (-11.5). Fellow AAC contender Tulane (+5.5) has a major opportunity to score a victory at home against Ole Miss. If the Green Wave get the victory, they have a great shot to run the table.

According to the computers, James Madison (+6) out of the Sun Belt has a solid chance to upset Virginia. Meanwhile, if Boise State want to avoid an 0-2 start, the Bronco need to find a way to upset Central Florida (-2.5) on their blue home turf.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all of my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Two.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Two.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in last week's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Two.

Combined, the two computer models have 10 total upset picks this week, including four upsets both machines picked: Cal over Auburn, Miami over Texas A&M, Iowa State over Iowa, and Virginia Tech over Purdue. 

My computer adds one other unique upset pick (UMass over Miami of Ohio) while the FPI contributed five additional picks, including wins by Illinois and Nebraska. My simulation of the week's action suggests a total of 10.1 plus-or-minus 2.6 upsets are most likely to occur in Week Two.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Two. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My computer suggests a total of six picks ATS this week, including Miami, North Carolina, Utah, Kansas State, and Florida State all covering. The FPI adds a total of 15 more bets ATS including Northwestern, Central Florida, Iowa State, Virginia, Stanford, and Illinois all covering.

But at this point I feel the need to issue a friendly, neighborhood warning regarding the FPI. With great computing power comes great betting advice responsibility. 

I no longer trust the picks from the FPI as accurate. Starting in 2021, the method I used to extract these picks started generating a larger number of predictions than the past two years and the accuracy decreased dramatically. Following a disaster of a performance in Week One, I am tempted to stop using the FPI altogether. I will give it another few weeks, but the FPI is currently on probation.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week, which have a much better (albeit shorter) track record.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Two. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer recommends a total of 30 over/under bets this week, seven of which meet the criteria to be considered "locks." Some of the more intriguing picks on the board this week include taking the under on UNLV at Michigan (57.5), the under of SMU at Oklahoma (70.5), and the over on Utah at Baylor (49.0). 

That is all the advice I have for you this week. Until next time, enjoy the games.