2023, Week 2 Recap: Do the Right Thing

If you are reading these words now, you know that it was a difficult weekend for the Michigan State football team. Yes, the Spartans won on the football field over the Richmond Spiders by a score of 45-13. Noah Kim and the offense played well, as did the defense other than a few late fumbles from players a bit farther down on the depth chart.

But all that feels like a distant memory based on the events that came to light early Sunday morning.

As I have stated previously, I am an optimist. I tend to give people the benefit of the doubt, sometimes when they don't deserve it. I believed in Coach Mel Tucker and I was optimistic about the direction of the Michigan State football program under his leadership.

But I was wrong.

In any sport, a coach has many responsibilities. But among the most important is that they are role models and mentors for young men and women. They are teachers, first and foremost. Sports are meant to teach us lessons about teamwork, dedication, resilience, and leadership. 

If I may borrow one more quote from Ted Lasso: "Success is not about the wins and losses. It’s about helping these young fellas be the best versions of themselves on and off the field."

Good leaders teach those around them to do the right thing. The most important way to do that is to lead by example, because leadership without example isn't leadership at all. It is the opposite of leadership.

Based on the actions that Coach Tucker has already admitted to, he has failed to live up to that standard. He made a long series of stupid and selfish decisions. He repeatedly failed to do the right thing. He needs to face the consequences of those actions.

Now, it is time for the leadership at Michigan State to do the right thing, and it appears they are well on their way. They need to follow through with the investigation until it reaches its conclusion in early October. At that time, it is clear they need to officially terminate Mel Tucker as the head football coach at Michigan State. The information already in the public record makes that the only logical option.

It is also time for all of us to do the right thing. Michigan State fans and alumni need to come together and work to move forward. The Spartan community needs to redouble the efforts to build a positive culture of respect where this type of sexual misconduct does not happen. 

Finally, we must not forget the 100-plus young men who will continue to wear the Green and White on the gridiron this fall. They had nothing to do with the action of their soon-to-be-former head coach. They need the support of fans. They need leadership. They need someone who will teach them and show them how to do the right thing. 

Hopefully, they will soon get the type of leadership that they deserve.

Week Two Betting Results

With that said, the show must go on and it's time to review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Results of Week Two showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

The teams who did the most things right on the field and overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points include Florida State, USC, Syracuse, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Colorado. Only two teams significantly underachieved yet avoided an upset: Missouri and Arkansas.

Speaking of upsets, I officially count eight total in Week Two relative to the opening spread, which is slightly below the 10.1 predicted by my weekly simulation. Table 1 below summarizes those eight upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Two based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Both computers got only 20% of the picks correct this week and are sitting just below 20% year-to-date. Those values are well below my benchmark of 36%.

Both computers correctly went with Miami over Texas A&M, while the FPI algorithm nailed Florida International's win over North Texas, despite being 14-point underdogs. 

Other notable upsets include Cincinnati over Pittsburgh, Washington State over Wisconsin, and the big one: Texas winning at Alabama.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' recommended picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Two.

After a rough start to the season in weeks zero and one, both computers finally did something right in the picks against the spread. My computer went 5-1 (83%) on the suggested bets to bring the year-to-date tally up to 5-2 (71%). When the predictions for all games are considered, my computer was three games over .500 for the week (25-22, 53%) to bring the year-to-date totals to 50-42 (54%).

ESPN FPI also had a strong week, posting a record of 9-6 (60%) for recommended bets and 23-24 (49%) overall. Year to date, though, the FPI still has some work to do to get up to .500 on both recommended bets (10-13, 44%) and overall (44-48, 48%).

Table 3 below summarizes the results of the highlighted total-points bets for Week 12.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Two

Once again, my method to make point total bets had a very strong week. The recommended bet in total went 17-13 (57%) to bring the year-to-date total to 33-25 (also 57%). The locks were on impressive 5-2 (71%) with a year-to-date tally of 9-4 (69%). 

Interestingly, if I look at the data for all the point total bets for the week, my computer is slightly below .500, which suggests the hit rate for the picks that don't make the curated list above are very poor.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Two, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Two.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Two.

In the Big Ten East, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan all cruised to big wins over teams either in the FCS or outside of the FBS top 100. My overall was impressed enough to place all three teams in the top five of my power rankings. 

My computer somehow places Ohio State at No. 1 in the nation, which translated into the best odds (39%) to win the division. No. 4 Penn State (29%) and No. 5 Michigan (22%) are not far behind.

Maryland struggled to cover or even beat Charlotte this week. As a result, the Terrapins slipped in my power rankings down to No. 44 and into sixth place in my calculated odds to win the division. 

The most interesting move in the Big Ten is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have two very convincing wins on their resume against Northwestern and Temple. Those teams are not juggernauts, but Rutgers outscored them by a combined score of 60-14. My computer was impressed enough with this result to elevate the Scarlet Knights to No. 20 in my power rankings with just under a 6% chance to win the East. 

I do not believe that Rutgers is a top 25 team, and I struggle to imagine that they will finish with a record of 8-4, as my computer now predicts. But I think that Rutgers is better than most people think.

It was a mixed bag of results in the Big Ten West this week. Wisconsin suffered an upset loss at Washington State, Colorado rolled over Nebraska, and Illinois lost by double digits at Kansas. Minnesota won versus Eastern Michigan but failed to cover.

On the brighter side, Iowa covered at Iowa State, Purdue got a surprising win on the road at Virginia Tech, and beleaguered Northwestern beat UTEP by 31. As a result, my calculated odds in the West have shifted.

The Iowa Hawkeyes now have the best odds at 30% with Wisconsin (22%) and Minnesota (19%) hovering about 10 percentage points behind. Illinois is holding steady in fourth place at 14% with Northwestern (7%) making a big jump up and ahead of Purdue (5%), and Nebraska (3%).

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

As the data above shows, the Spartans' win over Richmond has Michigan State holding steady at No. 31 in my power rankings. The Spartans' expected win total slipped by a tenth of a win down to 6.4 wins. My calculations now give Michigan State just a 2.3% chance to win the Big Ten East and a 66% chance to become bowl eligible, which is down three percentage points.

These small drops are most likely due to the fact that the Michigan State schedule keeps getting harder as we learn more about the Spartans' remaining opponents. My calculations current rank Michigan State's schedule as the second hardest in the nation behind the new No. 1 Stanford. In conference play, the Spartans' have now passed Indiana to claim the most challenging conference slate.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining 10 games. As a reference, the projected odds from last week are shown in Figure 2 as a reference.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week One and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

My computer currently projects that the Spartans will only be a touchdown or so underdog versus both Washington and Michigan at home and 15-point underdog at Ohio State. Those spreads held steady this week. The odds for the Penn State game also dropped this week to the current value of  +11. I should note that the actual line versus Washington opened at +16 for Michigan State. 

The games at Iowa (-4) and at Rutgers (-6) both look tougher this week, but the line for the road game at Minnesota (-1.5) held steady. The remaining games against Maryland (+5), Nebraska (+9.5), and at Indiana (+9.5) all look a bit easier this week.

National Overview

Let's wrap things up with a quick tour around the relevant national action.

Not a lot of things went right in the SEC this week as Texas and Miami upset Alabama and Texas A&M, respectively. Vanderbilt was the only other team to lose, but Ole Miss' win over Tulane was the only game where an SEC team played an FBS team and covered. 

Overall, though, the SEC race has not changed much. Georgia (60% odd to win the division) extended the lead over Tennessee (16%) in the East due to a more impressive win over a less-than-impressive team. In the West, Alabama has the best division odds at 32% with Ole Miss (30%) just behind and Texas A&M (14%) within striking distance.

The Big 12 had a slightly better week thanks to upset wins by Texas and to a lesser extent Cincinnati's upset win over Pittsburgh. Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State all covered against Illinois, Troy, and Arizona State. Central Florida didn't cover, but the Knights did get a win at Boise State. Baylor, Texas Tech, and Iowa State all lost and failed to cover but those losses were to Utah, Oregon, and Iowa. The only conference team to suffer an upset loss was Houston at Rice.

The Longhorns' big win at Alabama vaulted Texas to No. 3 in my power ranking and to first place in Big 12 odds table with a 64% chance to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Kansas State (48%) and Oklahoma (37%) have the next best odds with Cincinnati (15%) solidly in fourth place.

Out west it was a good weekend everywhere expect the Bay area and the state of Arizona. But despite taking losses to Mississippi State and Auburn, Arizona, and California both managed to cover the spread. Arizona State (against Oklahoma State) and Stanford (against USC) did not cover. Apart from Washington's win over Tulsa. The remaining Pac-12 teams who played FBS teams won and covered, including UCLA over San Diego State, and several other games mentions above.

My simulation result now ranks Oregon State No. 2 in the nation and gives the Beavers (59%) the best odds to advance to the Pac-12 Championship game. Washington (37%), USC (31%), Utah (19%), UCLA (18%), and Oregon (17%) are all ranked between No. 10 and No. 20 in my power rankings and all five teams are solidly in the hunt for the Championship game as well.

In ACC action, Florida State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest all coverd and Miami picked up an upset win over Texas A&M. However, four ACC teams picked up losses, including Pittsburgh's upset loss to Cincinnati, Virginia's loss to James Madison, Virginia Tech's loss to Purdue, and North Carolina State's loss to Notre Dame. North Carolina needed two overtimes to get past Appalachian State.

My calculations have No. 6 Florida State (64%) with the best odds to make the ACC Championship game, with Miami (49%) passing Duke (20%) for the second slot. North Carolina (20%) adn Syracuse (20%) are also solidly in the race.

I will also note that my computer gives Notre Dame a 16% chance to finish the season undefeated and a 35% chance to make the playoffs. Those are the third best odds int eh country behind Texas (37%) and Florida State (35%).

Finally, Tulane had a chance to make a statement against Ole Miss, but the Green Wave fell short. Outside of this contest, James Madison's win over Virginia was the only other notable result. Toledo put up 70 points on Texas Southern from the FCS, which was enough to vault the Rockets to the top of my Group of Five leaderboard with a 22% chance to make a New Year's Six Bowl. 

Georgia Southern from the Sunbelt is sitting in second place with 14% odds. Tulane (13%), Memphis (6%), and Liberty (6%) round out the rest of the top five.

Against all odds, I have reached the end for today. Hang in there, Spartan fans.