Saturday's contest between the Michigan State Spartans and the Washington Huskies is one that many had circled on their calendars for the last several months.
For the players, it was clear after speaking to some of them during fall camp that they were unhappy with how the Spartans played in Seattle in last year's 38-29 loss (which was not as close as the final score implies). Defensive lineman Derrick Harmon implied that this year's game against Washington meant almost as much to him as the rivalry game against Michigan.
For the fans, a scan of the schedule over the summer suggested that home game against Washington was set up to be the first real test for the 2023 version of the Green and White. The first two games against Central Michigan and Richmond would be a chance to work out the kinks. The third game would be the chance to learn how good (or bad) the Spartans are.
All that was before the events of Sunday, September 10 when Coach Mel Tucker was suspended without pay under the dark cloud of sexual misconduct allegations. The circumstances and emotional context around this Saturday's game are now drastically different.
The opponent for this Saturday also looks a bit better than expected as well. The Huskies are coming to town with an offense that ranks No. 2 in the FBS in yards per play (9.20). Oh, and did I mention that for the first time in history, alcohol will be on sale at Spartan Stadium?
With Coach Tucker out, Harlon Barnett in, and with Coach Mark Dantonio returning to the sidelines in a potentially therapeutic advisory role, there is chance to hit the reset button a bit from the coaching point of view. It provides a chance to get back to basics. Fans are unlikely to see much of a difference from a strategic point of view. If nothing else Barnett and Dantonio are likely to provide a much-needed calm and stabilizing presence on the sidelines.
In my opinion, the biggest wildcard on Saturday is the state of mind of the Michigan State players. I believe that this game will be won or lost based on what happens between the ears. More than usual, this game will be more about psychology than physicality, which makes it extremely difficult to handicap.
Earlier in the week, interim head coach Harlon Barnett said all the right things. He talked about resilience, determination, and playing through adversity. He said that he had a plan to talk to every player on the roster, and every coach, trainer, and support staff member one-on-one. I think that these mini therapy sessions are certainly a good thing.
But once that ball is kicked off on Saturday afternoon, it is anyone's guess how the players will react. There is a chance that some players will come in with extreme focus and energy, either to play for their enbattled coach or to show that they are not defined by his selfish actions. There is also the chance that the distraction of the week will weigh on the psyches of the players, in which case this game could go very, very badly.
Yes, this weekend's game is all about basic human psychology, and there are few things in this world that are harder to predict than the emotional response of 18- to 23-year-olds to this type of adversity. All we can do is sit back (or lie down) on our couches (or stadium benches), have a drink and see how this all plays out.
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MSU Prediction
This Saturday will mark the fifth meeting in history between the Spartans and the Washington Huskies. Michigan State won the first and only meeting so far in East Lansing in the fall of 1969. But since then, Washington has won three straight games in 1970, 1997, and 2022. Two of those three more recent games were played in Seattle while the third game, in 1997, was played in the Aloha Bowl in Honolulu.
Michigan State is currently a 16.5-point underdog, which is up just slightly from the opening line of 16 points. This spread corresponds to a 13% chance that the Spartans emerge victorious. The over/under for the game opened at 58 points and has since drifted lower to 55.5 points.
Some casinos had this game on the board as early as May with spreads closer to 10 to 12 points. The Mel Tucker news broke right around the time the oddsmakers were finalizing the spreads for the week, so it is unclear how much the current turmoil in East Lansing impacted the opening line. If it did, the experts in Las Vegas do not expect the events of the week to provide any kind of psychological edge for the Green and White.
But my cold, emotionless computer is telling a different story. My computer is not predicting a Spartan win, but it does suggest that the game will be closer than the current Vegas line. My official prediction is Washington 33, Michigan State 23.
It is certainly possible that the Spartans will be flat and will get completely blown out. It is also possible that Washington is so talented that the mindset of the Michigan State players will be irrelevant.
But I honestly expect the Spartans to play well, if not very well. I also expect the 2,000-mile trip across three times zones will dull the sharpness of the Huskies just a little. Michigan State is 23-6-1 (77%) all time against current Pac-12 teams in games played in East Lansing. When the games are played on the west coast, the record is just 13-19 (41%). The travel does matter. But will it matter enough?
I do not expect that the Spartans will win on Saturday, but at the same time I would not be shocked by a victory.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Three, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differential.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Three, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
Penn State travels to Illinois (+14.5) on Saturday in the lone conference match-up of the weekend. In the summer I predicted that this game could be a preview of the eventual Big Ten Championship game. However, it appears my faith in Brett Bielema and the Illini may have been misplaced. The computers favor Penn State to cover the two-touchdown spread.
The perceived heavy weights in each division are all huge favorites at home this week. Michigan (-40), Ohio State (-28), Iowa (-27), and Wisconsin (-16.5) should have little to be anxious about. That said, the computers only pick Ohio State to cover in that group of four games. I am also curious if Georgia Southern can give the Badgers a game. An upset in Madison could vault Georgia Southern to the top of my Group of Five Leaderboard.
Maryland (-14), Nebraska (-13), and Rutgers (-4.5) are also favored this week against Virginia, Northern Illinois, and Virginia Tech, respectively. The computers like the Terrapins and Scarlet Knights to cover. In this trio, I am keenly interested to see if Rutgers continues to play well, especially relative to Purdue's performance last week against the Hokies.
The remaining five Big Ten teams are all underdogs. The computers do not expect Purdue (pick'em) to cover against Syracuse nor Indiana (+6) to cover against Louisville. But the odds for the other three games are even worse for the Big Ten teams.
My computer is picking Minnesota (+6.5) to barely cover at North Carolina and that might be the best chance for the Big Ten to pick up an upset win. That said, I still think Michigan State has a chance and even though Northwestern (+20) is a huge underdog at Duke, I could see the Wildcats pulling out an upset in that meeting of the minds.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week Three.
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Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Three, including my algorithms' projected scores.
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There are very few marquee games on the menu this weekend. However, there are a few conference and non-conference SEC games that are intriguing.
South Carolina (+27) is not expected to test Georgia, but the Gamecocks are still projected by my computer as the third best team in the SEC East. Meanwhile the second and fourth best teams in the SEC East will square off as Tennessee travels to Florida (+7). The computers both see a much closer game in Gainsville than the spread suggests.
In SEC West action, LSU travels to Mississippi State (+7.5) for the Tigers first real test following the Week One thrashing from the Seminoles. The point spread and the FPI project an LSU win, while my computer is picking the Bulldogs in an upset.
There are also two notable SEC/Big 12 clashes this week as Arkansas (-10) hosts BYU and Kansas State (-6) travels to Missouri. My computer likes both Big 12 teams to cover but does not feel like making the call for an upset.
The only other Power Five battle on my radar is Pittsburgh (-2) at West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl rivalry. My computer forecasts an upset by the Mountaineers and a downgrading in the likelihood that Pat Narduzzi makes a return to the sidelines in East Lasing next year.
In Group of Five action, I will have my eye on Tulane (-10.5 at Southern Miss), Toledo (-7.5 versus San Jose State), and Troy (pick'em versus James Madison) as potential conference favorites. Fresno State (-3) is favored at Arizona State and the Bulldogs look to build on their Week One upset win at Purdue and perhaps atone for their near loss in Week Two against Eastern Washington.
But, the Group of Five game the intrigues me the most is Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo. The Flames have the easiest schedule in all of the FBS. My computer currently has Liberty with the second-best odds of the Group of Five teams to finish the regular season undefeated. Those odds are just under 6% (behind Georgia Southern at 8%), but that is high enough to keep an eye on.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Three. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Three. |
Both figures combined only yield a total of three upset picks for Week Three and all three of these picks are from my computer. As summarized below in Table 3, my machine is thinking that Mississippi State, UNLV, and West Virginia will score upset wins this weekend.
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Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Three.
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As a reference, my weekly simulation predicts a total of 10.3 plus-or-minus 2.7 upsets in Week Three which is almost identical to the prediction from last week.
Table 4 below summarizes the suggested bets against the spread for Week Three, which correspond to the games that fall outside of the dotted lines in Figures 1 and 2.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Three. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer has six total suggested bets and the FPI contributes an additional eight picks. Both computers express strong emotions regarding Oregon State's odds to cover this week. Other notable bets against the spread are for Northwestern, Syracuse, Michigan State, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, Alabama, Iowa State, Rutgers, Oklahoma State, and Mississippi State all to cover.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Three. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
This week's list contains 27 picks, four of which fall into my higher confidence "lock" category based on the opening point totals. So far this year my locks have a record of 9-4 (69%).
If one were to follow these suggestions, it would be to take the under on Western Kentucky at Ohio State (64), the over on LSU at Mississippi State (53), the under of Georgia Southern at Wisconsin (63), and the over on Pittsburgh at West Virginia (50).
That is all the advice that I can wrap my head around this week. Enjoy the games and check back early next week to see how these predictions performed.
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