This feels like a blockbuster of a week for the Michigan State Spartans. The first two weeks of the season provided some promising signs, but then revelations about Mel Tucker's conduct fell like a nuclear bomb on Spartan Nation.
Then, the Washington Huskies paid a visit to East Lansing. In the first half of last week's game, the Huskies acted without pity, remorse, or fear and they absolutely did not stop until they put up 35 points on the Spartan defense.
To add to the chaos, the leadership at Michigan State has informed Mel Tucker of their intent to terminate his contract. There is essentially no doubt now. Tucker will not be back.
But the Spartans still have nine games left on the schedule. Even before the season started, the home game at Maryland looked significant. Most experts expected the Spartans to be 2-1 at this juncture. A win in the first home game of the Big Ten season could provide some positive momentum that would bolster the hopes of a bowl game.
However, a loss to Maryland could signal near apocalyptic doom for the Spartans' season and beyond. It will be increasingly difficult for the Spartans to get to six wins if they fall short this weekend. A loss could trigger an exodus of players to the transfer portal. The solid feelings of hope that Spartans felt after Week Two would melt like a block of metal in steel plant smelter. In other words, Saturday is starting to feel like Judgment Day.
The good news is that the Spartans still have the power to prevent this dark fate. The future has not been written. There is no fate but what they make for themselves. They need to prove that on the field this Saturday.
MSU Prediction
Saturday's contest with the Maryland Terrapins will be the 14th meeting of the schools, and the Spartans currently lead the series 10-3. Michigan State won four of five games against Maryland between 1944 and 1950. The series then resumed when the Terrapins joined the Big 10 in 2014. The Spartans have gone 6-2 in that span with both losses occurring on the road.
Michigan State was favored in seven of the previous eight matchups. The Spartans lost on the road in 2016 as a three-point favorite and last year as a 7.5-point underdog. Overall, Michigan State is 4-4 against the spread versus Maryland in the modern era, and the teams hit the under on points in seven of the last eight games.
This year marks the first time in modern history where Michigan State will host Maryland as the underdog. The Spartans opened as a 6.5-point home dog with an over/under at 53.5. That line has extended to 7.5 points while the over/under has dropped to 52.5 points. This spread suggests that Michigan State has a one-in-three (33%) chance to spring the upset.
As for me and my computer, we land on the side of optimism this week. While the ugly loss to Washington last week was disturbing, the fact remains that the Spartans played well against the much weaker competition in the first two weeks. Maryland has only played weaker competition.
In fact, my computer ranks Central Michigan and Virginia (Maryland's opponent last week) as No. 101 and No. 102 in the country, respectively. Michigan State and Maryland won those games by similar margins. Furthermore, Maryland struggled early in Week Two against No. 108 Charlotte which my computer suggests would only be favored over Richmond by a field goal.
When I consider the totality of this season, No. 41 Maryland is just slightly ahead of No. 44 Michigan State in my power rankings. The fact that this game will be played at Spartan Stadium means that Michigan State comes out slightly ahead. As a result, my official prediction is Michigan State 27, Maryland 24 and a happy homecoming in East Lansing.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Three, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that the rankings list below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not from either national poll.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Four, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
There are a total of nine Big Ten games on the docket this week, five of which are conference games, and four of which are the final non-conference battles for each team. The most notable conference game is No. 30 Iowa at No. 4 Penn State (-14.5). Both teams are clear contenders in the West and East division, but Vegas and the computers do not expect the Hawkeyes to stay within two touchdowns in Happy Valley.
In Big Ten West action, No. 45 Minnesota (-12.5) is a big favorite at No. 63 Northwestern, but both machines expect this game to be much, much closer. Similarly, the computers expect No. 59 Purdue to give No. 36 Wisconsin (-6.5) more trouble than expected in West Lafayette. Don't be shocked if one of those games ends in an upset.
In my judgement, the most interesting game this week is Rutgers (+25.5) at No. 6 Michigan. The line here seems more based on precedent rather than actual on-field results. Michigan has failed to cover even once this year, while Rutgers has easily covered all three times. The Scarlet Knights are up to No. 24 in my power rankings and the machines and I expect a much closer game in Ann Arbor.
In notable non-conference action, No. 60 Nebraska (-20), No. 90 Indiana (-17), and No. 61 Illinois (-12) all look safe against Louisiana Tech, Akron, and Florida Atlantic, respectively.
The big one on the board is No. 2 Ohio State at No. 14 Notre Dame (+3), which has massive national implications. My computer says Ohio State has a 28% chance to reach the college football playoffs, while Norte Dame has a 26% chance. Both of those values are good enough to be in the top six nationally. Whichever team loses this weekend will take a major hit in their post season hopes.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week Four.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Four, including my algorithms' projected scores. |
Across the country this week, there are several high-profile games that will provide early separation in several conference and division races. Michigan State is not the only team facing judgment. The action is tame in the SEC East, but there are two SEC West games that loom large.
I currently have No. 7 Alabama (35% odds to win the East) and No. 8 Ole Miss (29%) neck-and-neck in the race for the SEC East. Alabama (-6.5) is at home and favored, and a win would give the Crimson Tide a major boost in the race. In related action, No. 19 Texas A&M (13%) hosts No. 26 Auburn (8%). I currently have the Aggies (-7.5) with the third best odds to win the West. A win over Auburn could vault Texas A&M into second place.
The race in the Big 12 is heating up this week as well. My computer currently has No. 3 Texas (58% odds to reach the Big 12 Championship) and No. 5 Oklahoma (58%) head and shoulders above the rest of the field. Both Texas (-14.5) and Oklahoma (-13.5) are heavily favored this week, but both teams are on the road at No. 74 Baylor and at No. 62 Cincinnati which can always be trouble.
Despite these odds for the top two, the machines feel that other Big 12 teams have the potential to rise to the top of the standings. No. 13 Kansas State (37%) and No. 25 Central Florida (15%) are two such teams and they happen to face each other this week. Kansas State (-7) is expected to get the win. In addition, No. 28 Texas Tech (10%) is a 4.5-point favorite on the road at No. 49 West Virginia.
The Pac-12 currently leads the nation with eight total undefeated teams and six of those schools will square off with one another this week. My computer is very high on No. 11 Oregon State (30% to reach the Pac-12 Championship). The Beaver are just three-point favorites on the road at No. 54 Washington State (1% odds).
No. 12 UCLA (28%) has a tougher challenge on the road against No. 10 Utah (24%). The Utes are favored by five. No. 18 Oregon (18%) hosts No. 41 Colorado (3%) and the Ducks are favored by 16.5 points. The winners of these three games will join No. 1 Washington (64%) and No. 15 USC (26%) in the top tier of the conference.
In the preseason, this week's contest between No. 17 Florida State (45% odds to advance to the ACC Championship game) and No. 53 Clemson (2% odds) looked like a potential preview of the eventual ACC Championship game. However, Clemson got off to a slow start and now my machine is not convinced that the Tigers will even make a bowl game. Vegas pegs this week's game as a pick'em while my computer likes the Seminoles to win handily.
The other ACC contender to watch this week is No. 23 North Carolina (33%) which is a 6.5-point favorite on the road against No. 80 Pittsburgh (1%).
In Group of Five action, there are four games that have piqued my interest. In the Sun Belt, my computer currently sees No. 44 South Alabama (33% to win the conference) in the West and No. 46 Coastal Carolina (23%) in the East as the teams two teams with reasonable odds to make the New Year's Six. South Alabama (-15.5) hosts Central Michigan while Coastal Carolina (-7.5) has a tricky conference bout with Georgia State.
Conference USA's No. 72 Liberty is undefeated and plays the easiest schedule in the entire FBS. The Flames have a 13% chance to run the table and the next step in that journey is to get past No. 124 Florida International (+11).
Finally, No. 66 Air Force is also undefeated thanks to a soft schedule. The Falcons are favored by 4.5 points at No. 58 San Jose State, but the computers like the Spartans in an upset.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Four. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Four. |
The combined forces of the machines predict a total of six upsets in Week Four which are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Four. |
The majority of these upsets are in the Group of Five. My computer's pick of Michigan State to win this week is joined by the pick of BYU to upset Kansas in the Power Five.
I will note that my weekly simulation predicts that we will see 14.6 plus-or-minus 3.1 upsets in Week Four, which is by far the most so far this year.
Table 4 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.
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My computer recommends a total of five picks and the FPI data suggests a total of nine picks. The computers agree that both Rutgers and BYU will cover. Other notable teams that the machines suggest will cover include Northwestern, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, and Florida State.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Four. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
A total of 24 out of a possible 63 games clear the criteria to make my recommended list of point total bets. Of those only two are considered to be locks: Washington and Cal to score under 63 points and Appalachian State and Wyoming to score over 44 points combined.
That is all the advice that I have to offer this week so it is time to terminate this piece. Enjoy the games and check back early next week to see how these predictions performed. In other words, I'll be back.
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