I find it difficult to process and put into words went transpired in Spartan Stadium this past weekend. A glance at the box score shows that the Michigan State Spartans accumulated more first downs (25 to 18), more total yards (376 to 362) and won the time of possession by three minutes. The Spartans didn't punt until the end of the third quarter.
But a glance at the scoreboard showed that the Spartan received a thorough beating at the hands of visiting Maryland Terrapins by a score of 31-to-9. So how did this happen? The answer is quite simple: errors.
Four the second straight week the Spartans committed far, far too many errors. The sheer number and variety of those errors was almost funny. On Saturday we saw bad interceptions, fumbles, poor fourth-down play selection, a converted fake punt, missed tackles, a blocked field goal, and several dropped and/or air-mailed passes.
Basically, what could go wrong, did go wrong, over and over again. If it wasn't such a tragedy, it would have been a comedy. Now, those midsummer night dreams of a potentially bounce-back season are all but history. The Spartans are hurtling towards a winter of discontent.
With four games in the books, the curtain has now closed on the first act of the 2023 season. As we will see below, the odds for Michigan State to even qualify for a bowl game are dwindling. The idea that this team might have the talent and coaching to overachieve seems to have been a case of mistaken identity.
More trials and tribulations are certainly in the script for the acts that follow. I do believe that there will be some plot twists including some bright spots in the weeks to come. But for that to happen, the senseless errors need to get cleaned up in a hurry. If they do not, history will not look back at the 2023 season as a tragedy or even as a comedy. We will simply remember it as a farce.
Week Four Betting Results
Let's now review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Results of Week Fout showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
A total of 12 teams beat the opening spread by more than 14 points (one standard deviation) including Fresno State, Oregon, Georgia Southern, Liberty, Texas, Penn State, Air Force, Wisconsin, and (tragically for Spartan fans) Mayland.
On the opposite side of the dotted-diagonal line are the teams who failed to cover by more than 14 points, yet still won: Southern Cal and Indiana.
A total of 10 teams underachieved enough to earn a loss in Week Four. Table 1 below summarizes those 10 games and compares these results to the upset picks made last week.
Table 1: Upsets in Week Four based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week. |
The value of 10 total upsets was notably below the prediction of over 14 that my computer made last week, and most of the upsets occurred in Group of Five matchups. In the Power Five, Northwestern, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, and Washington State were the only upset winners. The biggest upset of the week was Central Michigan (+16) over Sun Belt contender South Alabama.
Altogether, my computer only correctly foretold Tulsa's win over Northern Illinois. My computer was just 1-4 (20%) for upset pick, bringing the year-to-date record to 4-10 (29%). If that sounds tragic, ESPN's Football Power Index went 0-2 this week and is just 2-11 (15%) for the season.
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.
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The machines were also a bit error prone in this area. My computer went just 2-3 (40%) in suggested bets which brings the year-to-date record to an even 9-9. The FPI did a bit worse at just 3-6 (33%) this week, bringing the year-to-date record to an almost comical 14-26 (35%).
Overall, my computer went 31-32 (49%) when all FBS games are considered. The FPI went just 26-37 (41%). Year-to-date, my machine is 54-63 (46%) while the FPI is 52-65 (44%).
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Four.
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For the full set of picks, my computer finally did something right in going 12-9 (57%) which bring the overall record to 57-49 (54%) for the year. But the usually rock-solid "lock" picks went 0-for-2 this week which drags the year-to-date record down to 11-8 (58%).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Four, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.
Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Four. |
Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Four. |
The big movers and big winners this week are the Penn State Nittany Lions, who dominated the Iowa Hawkeyes in a 31-0 win. Iowa held the ball for less than 15 minutes of game time and managed just 76 total yards and only four first downs.
As a result, Penn State vaulted up to No. 1 in my power rankings with a 43% chance to win the Big Ten East and slightly better odds (44%) to make the playoffs. This places Penn State in first place in my current playoff odds leaderboard.
But uneasy is the head that wears the crown. Just behind Penn State is No. 2 Michigan. The Wolverines were just shy of covering the opening spread against Rutgers, but their odds of winning the East and making the playoffs both bumped up to 30%.
No. 5 Ohio State escaped South Bend with a last second win, but the Buckeyes' odds to win the East sagged slightly to 24%. The only other Big Ten East team with better than a one percent chance at division glory is No. 23 Maryland (3.4%).
In Big Ten West action, No. 22 Wisconsin moved up the charts thanks to a big win over Purdue. My computer now gives the Badgers a 63% chance to win the West. The division odds for No. 47 Iowa dropped to 12% thanks to the pummeling by the Nittany Lions.
The five remaining Big Ten West teams check in which similar odds and rankings. No. 61 Illinois (8%) is currently in third place, having passed No. 51 Minnesota (7%). The Gophers fell to the No. 64 Northwestern (5%) on the road. No. 71 Nebraska (3%) and No. 71 Purdue (1.5%) currently occupy the Big Ten West basement.
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