2023 Week 4 Recap: The Comedy of Errors

I find it difficult to process and put into words went transpired in Spartan Stadium this past weekend. A glance at the box score shows that the Michigan State Spartans accumulated more first downs (25 to 18), more total yards (376 to 362) and won the time of possession by three minutes. The Spartans didn't punt until the end of the third quarter.

But a glance at the scoreboard showed that the Spartan received a thorough beating at the hands of visiting Maryland Terrapins by a score of 31-to-9. So how did this happen? The answer is quite simple: errors.

Four the second straight week the Spartans committed far, far too many errors. The sheer number and variety of those errors was almost funny. On Saturday we saw bad interceptions, fumbles, poor fourth-down play selection, a converted fake punt, missed tackles, a blocked field goal, and several dropped and/or air-mailed passes.

Basically, what could go wrong, did go wrong, over and over again. If it wasn't such a tragedy, it would have been a comedy. Now, those midsummer night dreams of a potentially bounce-back season are all but history. The Spartans are hurtling towards a winter of discontent.

With four games in the books, the curtain has now closed on the first act of the 2023 season. As we will see below, the odds for Michigan State to even qualify for a bowl game are dwindling. The idea that this team might have the talent and coaching to overachieve seems to have been a case of mistaken identity.

More trials and tribulations are certainly in the script for the acts that follow. I do believe that there will be some plot twists including some bright spots in the weeks to come. But for that to happen, the senseless errors need to get cleaned up in a hurry. If they do not, history will not look back at the 2023 season as a tragedy or even as a comedy. We will simply remember it as a farce. 

Week Four Betting Results

Let's now review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Results of Week Fout showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 12 teams beat the opening spread by more than 14 points (one standard deviation) including Fresno State, Oregon, Georgia Southern, Liberty, Texas, Penn State, Air Force, Wisconsin, and (tragically for Spartan fans) Mayland.

On the opposite side of the dotted-diagonal line are the teams who failed to cover by more than 14 points, yet still won: Southern Cal and Indiana.

A total of 10 teams underachieved enough to earn a loss in Week Four. Table 1 below summarizes those 10 games and compares these results to the upset picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Four based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The value of 10 total upsets was notably below the prediction of over 14 that my computer made last week, and most of the upsets occurred in Group of Five matchups. In the Power Five, Northwestern, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, and Washington State were the only upset winners. The biggest upset of the week was Central Michigan (+16) over Sun Belt contender South Alabama.

Altogether, my computer only correctly foretold Tulsa's win over Northern Illinois. My computer was just 1-4 (20%) for upset pick, bringing the year-to-date record to 4-10 (29%). If that sounds tragic, ESPN's Football Power Index went 0-2 this week and is just 2-11 (15%) for the season.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week Four.

The machines were also a bit error prone in this area. My computer went just 2-3 (40%) in suggested bets which brings the year-to-date record to an even 9-9. The FPI did a bit worse at just 3-6 (33%) this week, bringing the year-to-date record to an almost comical 14-26 (35%).

Overall, my computer went 31-32 (49%) when all FBS games are considered. The FPI went just 26-37 (41%). Year-to-date, my machine is 54-63 (46%) while the FPI is 52-65 (44%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Four.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Four.

For the full set of picks, my computer finally did something right in going 12-9 (57%) which bring the overall record to 57-49 (54%) for the year. But the usually rock-solid "lock" picks went 0-for-2 this week which drags the year-to-date record down to 11-8 (58%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Four, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Four.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Four.

The big movers and big winners this week are the Penn State Nittany Lions, who dominated the Iowa Hawkeyes in a 31-0 win. Iowa held the ball for less than 15 minutes of game time and managed just 76 total yards and only four first downs.

As a result, Penn State vaulted up to No. 1 in my power rankings with a 43% chance to win the Big Ten East and slightly better odds (44%) to make the playoffs. This places Penn State in first place in my current playoff odds leaderboard. 

But uneasy is the head that wears the crown. Just behind Penn State is No. 2 Michigan. The Wolverines were just shy of covering the opening spread against Rutgers, but their odds of winning the East and making the playoffs both bumped up to 30%.

No. 5 Ohio State escaped South Bend with a last second win, but the Buckeyes' odds to win the East sagged slightly to 24%. The only other Big Ten East team with better than a one percent chance at division glory is No. 23 Maryland (3.4%).

In Big Ten West action, No. 22 Wisconsin moved up the charts thanks to a big win over Purdue. My computer now gives the Badgers a 63% chance to win the West. The division odds for No. 47 Iowa dropped to 12% thanks to the pummeling by the Nittany Lions. 

The five remaining Big Ten West teams check in which similar odds and rankings. No. 61 Illinois (8%) is currently in third place, having passed No. 51 Minnesota (7%). The Gophers fell to the No. 64 Northwestern (5%) on the road. No. 71 Nebraska (3%) and No. 71 Purdue (1.5%) currently occupy the Big Ten West basement.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State fans were not at all impressed with the Spartans' error-prone performance on Saturday, and neither was my computer. Michigan State dropped to No. 63 in my latest power poll and the expected win total stands at a season-low 4.5 wins. 

The win distribution matrix shown above in Table 5 also paints a bleak picture. As to the question of to go bowling or not to go bowling, I now calculate just a 23% chance that Michigan State finds a way to win the necessary six games. Michigan State now also officially owns the most difficult overall schedule in the entire FBS. Neat.

Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for all eight of Michigan State's remaining games.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Four and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference.

The challenges ahead for the Spartans are illuminated in this figure. My computer still projects that the Spartans will be favored in two of the November games against Nebraska (+3.5) and at Indiana (+5). But to become bowl-eligible, Michigan State will need to win both of those games and two of the other six.

The three games against Michigan (-17.5), at Ohio State (+22), and versus Penn State (-22.5) will all be longshots. So, the Spartans will most likely need to find a way to steal two wins in the three road games at Minnesota (-4.5), at Rutgers (-9.5), and this coming weekend at Iowa (-5). 

Based on my calculations, the games at Minnesota and at Iowa are the most winnable. But the spread for this weekend's game at Iowa has opened with the Hawkeye's favored 11.5-points, which is much higher than my computer's prediction. 

That said, I would also wager that if the Spartans were to be traveling to Rutgers this weekend, the spread would be tighter than my computer's prediction of 9.5 points. So, these effects cancel out. Either Vegas is right, or my computer is right, but the total difficulty is about the same.

Either way, the Spartans will need to get a win in at least one of the next two games on the road to avoid a tragic ending to this already tragic season. 

National Overview

In the final act for today, let's quickly check on the various plot lines across the rest of the country.

There were no real surprises in SEC action this week. No. 4 Alabama used a strong second half to cruise to victory over No. 13 Ole Miss. Meanwhile, No. 14 Texas A&M won and covered against No. 34 Auburn. No. 21 LSU also won, but failed to cover against No. 36 Arkansas. As a result, the Crimson Tide (59%) strengthened their lead in the West over Texas A&M (21%) and LSU (10%).

In SEC East action, No. 12 Georgia and No. 29 Florida both won easily but both failed to cover against UAB and Charlotte, respectively. The Bulldogs (54%) maintain a strong lead over the Gators (19%) in my calculated odds to win the division. The team with the third best odds is undefeated and No. 37 Missouri (10%). The Tigers were able to edge No. 55 Memphis by a touchdown.

In the Big 12, No. 3 Texas and No. 7 Oklahoma both won big and covered against No. 88 Baylor and No. 75 Cincinati to stay at the top of the conference leaderboard. My computers give the Longhorns (69%) and the Sooners (61%) by far the best odds to make the conference championship game.

No. 11 Kansas State bounced back to get a win and cover against No. 24 Central Florida to solidify the Wildcats' position in third place in my odds chart at 40%. After that there is a substantial drop off in odds with No. 27 TCU and No. 35 West Virginia both at 8% following strong performances this week against No. 45 SMU and No. 31 Texas Tech.

It was a big weekend in the Pac-12 with several undefeated teams facing off against each other. No. 6 Washington held on to the top spot in my odds table with a 66% chance to make the Pac-12 Championship game following a 27-point win over No. 40 California. 

The other big winners were No. 9 Oregon, who thrashed No. 52 Colorado, and No. 8 Utah who handed No. 19 UCLA their first loss of the season. My computer gives the Duck (45%) and the Utes (41%) the second and third best odds to reach the conference championship game.

No. 25 USC beat No. 126 Arizona State but failed to cover. My computer gives the Trojans just a 14% chance to reach the top two of the conference at the end of the season. In addition, No. 38 Washington State (6%) upset No. 17 Oregon State (13%) which knocked the Beavers down to fifth place in my odds table.

The marquee match-up in the ACC saw No. 18 Florida State edge No. 42 Clemson in overtime to maintain first place in my odds table with a 46% chance to reach the ACC championship game. Behind the Seminoles are five other ACC teams who remain undefeated after fairly easy wins in Week Four. No. 15 Duke leads the way with a 41% chance to reach the conference title game. The Blue Devils are followed by No. 16 Miami (39%), No. 20 North Carolina (31%), No. 28 Syracuse (17%), and No. 33 Louisville (17%).

Finally, in notable Group of Five action, No. 54 Liberty, No. 43 Fresno State, and No. 48 Air Force all won big to stay undefeated and at the top of the Group of Five leaderboard. My computer gives Liberty (24%) the best current odds to earn a New Year's Six bid, followed by Fresno State (16%), Air Force (10%), Tulane (10%), and Toledo (6%).

The biggest shake-up in the Group of Five happened in the Sun Belt as No. 68 South Alabama was upset by No. 99 Central Michigan and No. 65 Coastal Carolina was upset by No. 57 Georgia State. As a result, Georgia State (5%) now has the best odds of any Sun Belt team to reach the New Year's Six.

Against all odds, we have reached the end for today. I could say more, but brevity is the soul of wit. While parting is such sweet sorrow, never fear. A new batch of Bad Betting Advice for Week Five is coming soon.