One could point to a multitude of problems with the Michigan State football team over the past two games. One could point to the defense and the 72 points that they have given during the current two-game skid. But that can partially be excused by the fact that the Spartan defense faced two very potent passing attacks in Washington and in Maryland.
I am more concerned with the other side of the ball. On the past two Saturdays, the Spartan offense has generated just 16 points while giving up a total of six turnovers. While the Huskies and the Terrapins do have strong offenses, neither is known for a particularly stout defense. The Michigan State offense that appeared so green and lush in the first two games has dried up, withered, and died.
Some regression is expected. The level of competition did increase, and East Lansing was hit by a major storm a few weeks back. The program remains under a dark cloud. But unless the offense can break out of the current drought-like conditions, any hopes of a bowl game (and any signs of positive momentum) will soon crumble to dust.
Under these circumstances, a road trip to the Great Plains might be just what the meteorologist ordered. This week's opponent, the Iowa Hawkeyes, will be a welcome change of pace. Unlike Washington or Maryland, the Hawkeyes have an offense that some might say "blows." The offensive drought in Iowa City has been going on for at least two seasons. Just last week at Penn State, Iowa managed a total of zero points on 76 total yards of offense and only four first downs.
In other words, don't expect a shootout on Saturday night.
While the Hawkeye's offense is a bit dusty, the defense certainly is not. If Michigan State is to have any chance this weekend, the offense will need to find a way to come back to life against a much stiffer challenge than they have faced so far this year.
But there are some signs of hope, like a few green shoots sticking up out of the parched soil. The flaws in the Spartan offense over the past few weeks were generally due to errors in execution. If the Michigan State offense can eliminate errors such as turnovers, missed blocking assignments, and inaccurate/dropped passes, there is a solid chance that some of the explosiveness that we saw during the first two weeks may return.
If the Spartan offense can get back to basics and begin to execute cleanly, there is a chance that the season can be salvaged, starting with Saturday's game. If not, by the time the dust settles and Michigan State returns to Spartan Stadium, there might be a few tumbleweeds blowing around between the seats. Worse yet, much of the lovely shade of green typically present in the stands might be replaced by an ugly shade of yellow.
MSU Prediction
This Saturday's contest between the Spartans and the Iowa Hawkeyes will mark the 49th meeting in the series which began in 1953. Iowa currently leads the series 24-22-2, and the record is even at 7-7 since 2001. Neither team has won more than five games in a row at any point in history. Michigan State was on a three-game winning streak against the Hawkeyes until the Spartans were ploughed in Iowa City in the most recent meeting in 2020.
Going back to 1995, Michigan State is just 5-11-1 against the spread versus Iowa and 2-6 against the spread in Iowa City. It that is the bad news, the worse news is that the Spartans opened as a seven-point underdog and the line quickly moved into double digits. At the time of press, the line sits at +11.5 for the Spartans with a point total over/under of 36.5 points.
Assuming this line holds steady, it is the biggest spread for the Hawkeyes in this series since the beginning of reliable records in 1995. Based on this spread, history says that Michigan State has just a 21% chance to return home with a victory.
My computer is slightly more optimistic than the current Vegas line, but not by a lot. Unlike last week, I will not be issuing an upset alert. My computer predicts a final score of Iowa 24, Michigan State 18. As this score implies, my machine also leans towards taking the "over" on points, which honestly seems like a terrible idea.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Five, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not from either national poll.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Five, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
It is a dry and underwhelming slate in Big Ten country this week. No. 5 Ohio State and No. 22 Wisconsin both have byes and No. 30 Rutgers is facing a Wagner team ranked No. 122 of 128 teams in the FCS according to S&P+.
No. 51 Minnesota is a double-digit favorite against No. 102 Louisiana from the Sun Belt Conference. The remaining 10 Big Ten teams square off in conference play.
Big Ten East favorites No. 1 Penn State and No. 2 Michigan are both heavily favored on the road at No. 64 Northwestern (+26) and at No. 72 Nebraska (+18) respectively. Neither team should be seriously challenged, but road games can always get tricky.
No. 23 Maryland has a great shot to move to 5-0 this week as the Terrapins play host to the No. 107 Indiana Hoosiers (+14.5). My computer envisions a much bigger win for the home team.
Outside of the game in Iowa City mentioned above, this leaves No. 61 Illinois at No. 71 Purdue (-1.5) as the most interesting and likely competitive game of the week. My computer likes Purdue to protect its home turf while the FPI is picking Illinois in the upset.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week Five.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week Five including my algorithms' projected scores. |
In the SEC, division favorites No. 12 Georgia (-15.5) and No. 4 Alabama (-14.5) are both roughly two-touchdown favorites on the road at No. 34 Auburn and at No. 56 Mississippi State. Both teams should be safe, but my computer has doubts about Georgia's ability to cover.
Farther down the standings I see three other contests that could impact both division races. No. 14 Texas A&M (-6.5) should be able to hold onto the second-best odds to win the SEC West against No. 36 Arkansas. Meanwhile, the winner of No. 21 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (+2) will stay near the front of the division race. Both computers like the Rebels in an upset.
In the SEC East, my computer also sees an upset brewing as No. 29 Florida (+3) visits No. 44 Kentucky. A win would keep the Gators within striking distance of the Bulldogs.
In Pac-12 action, several contenders are big favorites on the road. No. 6 Washington (-19.5) and No. 9 Oregon (-23) both appear safe at No. 50 Arizona and at No. 92 Stanford. No. 25 Southern California (-27.5) is favored heavily at No. 52 Colorado, but my computer sees a much closer game.
The biggest game on the west coast this weekend is No. 8 Utah at No. 17 Oregon State (-1.5). In the preseason, my computer pegged the Beavers as a potential Pac-12 dark horse thanks in large part to a favorable home schedule. But my computer has sensed a change in the wind now that the season has started and is picking Utah to get the minor road upset.
The teams at the top of the Big 12 standings also have a light schedule this week. No. 3 Texas (-17) is likely to give No. 53 Kansas their first loss of the season while No. 7 Oklahoma (-20.5) is likely to breeze past the No. 73 Iowa State Cyclones.
The only minorly interesting Big 12 game is No. 35 West Virginia (+9.5) at No. 27 TCU. Both teams are 3-1 and currently in the top five in my calculated Big 12 odds.
The action is also a bit quiet in the ACC as No. 18 Florida State, No. 16 Miami, and No. 20 North Carolina all have byes. In true conference play, No. 42 Clemson (-6.5) at No. 28 Syracuse looks like the best option for an interesting game. Both computers like the Orange in the upset.
A bigger game of note is No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 15 Duke (+4.5). The Blue Devils look to show that the Week One blow out of Clemson wasn't a fluke while the Fighting Irish try to recover from last week's heartbreaking loss to Ohio State. My computer likes Duke in an upset.
Table 3 below summarizes the notable remaining Group of Five action in Week Five.
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| Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week Five including my algorithms' projected scores. |
Most of the current New Year's Six contenders are double-digit contenders at home including No. 43 Fresno State (-24), No. 32 Tulane (-19.5), No. 66 Toledo (-14.5), and No. 48 Air Force (-10.5).
The two games that are worth keeping an eye on are No. 79 Troy at No. 57 Georgia State (-3) and No. 46 Boise State at No. 55 Memphis (-2). Georgia State is my current Sun Belt favorite, but the Panthers will likely need to win to stay that way. Memphis currently looks like a longshot for the New Year's Six, but a win over Boise State would do wonders for the Tigers' resume.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Five. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Five. |
Table 4 below summarizes a total of 10 upset picks that can be extracted from the Figures above.
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| Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week Five |
The majority of the upset picks this week are in the Power Five and many were mentioned above, including wins by Syracuse, Duke, Florida, Ole Miss, and Illinois. The computers are also experiencing some drought-like conditions when it comes to upset picks this season. But the timing seems right for the wind to change direction.
My weekly simulation suggests that a total of 13.3 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets are most likely this week. Week Four was calmer on this front than expected. Perhaps Week Five will be a bit stormier.
Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.
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| Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week Five. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
The computers combined have a total of five recommended bets. Interestingly, my computer's three picks are all also on the FPI's list as well. All five picks here are also in Power Five contests including picks for California, Colorado, Syracuse, Texas, and Oregon all to cover.
We will see if my computer can rise above .500 for the year this week while the FPI is simply hoping that the storm ends sometime soon.
Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.
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| Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Five. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
Then again, my computer does recommend a pick of the over of 35-points in the Michigan State/Iowa game. Perhaps some dust blew into one of the vents of my laptop when I wasn't looking.
That is all the advice that I have to offer this week. Check back early next week to see how the picks above faired.
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