Sometimes, it is OK to let a few things go. The Michigan State Spartans have completed the first five games of the 2023 season and are now headed into the bye week. The first month of the season has felt like 10. A lot has happened even in the last week.
First, Michigan State athletic director and the MSU administration officially said goodbye to former head coach Mel Tucker. In effect, they told him that they couldn't take it anymore, and they wanted to see him out that door.
Other than the vast number of inevitable impending lawsuits, the Mel Tucker chapter in East Lansing is now closed. Based on the events of the past month, I believe that life will be much better now that he is gone, at least in the long term.
But in the short term there was a game of two that was played on Saturday evening in Iowa City. That game actually went pretty well for a while... until it didn't. A fourth quarter lead evaporated thanks again to a large number of foolish mistakes, leaving the victory to the Iowa Hawkeye by a score of 26-16.
With Michigan State sitting at 2-3, I can understand if Spartan fans feel like giving up for sure. I imagine that some of you don't want to be the loser and you have had enough. I get it.
However, I am also the Chief Optimism Officer here, and in that role I feel the need to make a few points. I am probably going to start a fight with this line of reasoning, but I need to hit you with the truth. Michigan State outplayed Iowa for large stretches of the game on Friday night.
For the second week in a row, Michigan State won or even dominated the opponent in most statistical categories. Granted, turnovers, penalties, and the final score were not included in that group. Starting quarterback Noah Kim was not in synch with the offensive line or his receiving corps in the critical moments of the game.
While these problems are serious enough to be the difference between a 2-3 record and a 4-1 record, they are also problems that I believe can be corrected, especially with the benefit of a bye week. I firmly believe that this Michigan State team will provide some bright moments before this season comes to an end. It is just a question of how many more painful losses the Green and White will pick up along the way.
A lot of Spartan fans are clamoring to see more of the new kid on the block, redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser. Maybe that will help. I suspect it won't. Other fans are simply waiting for the new edition of the Spartans in 2024 with a new coaching staff and perhaps a much different roster. Either way, there is likely only one direction that the program can go, and that direction is up.
Week Five Betting Results
Let's now review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
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Figure 1: Results of Week Five showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.
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I count a total of six teams that beat the spread by more than 14 points this week: Michigan, Air Force, Kentucky, Tulsa, Purdue, and Western Michigan. Only one team underachieved by more than 14 points, yet still won: Southern California.
A total of 10 teams were upset in Week Five, based on the opening spread. Table 1 below summarizes those 10 games and compares these results to the upset picks made last week. For the second week in a row, there was an unusually small number of upsets relative to the prediction of 13.3 upsets.
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| Table 1: Upsets in Week Five based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week. |
Bowling Green's win over Georgia Tech (-21) was the biggest upset of the week in addition to being the biggest upset since Week One. The Big 12 also had two notable upsets as Baylor (+12) beat Central Floriday and West Virginia (+10) took out TCU.
The other upsets worth mentioning in Week Five were Virginia Tech's win over Pittsburgh (-3), and Ole Miss's win over LSU (-2). In the Group of Five, Troy's win over Georgia State (-3) is also significant in the chase for the New Year's Six bid.
My computer was a bit more in-synch with upset picks this week, going a respectable 3-4 (43%). ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) was just a tick behind at 2-3 (40%).
Both machines are still struggling overall with upset picks this year. My computer is now just 7-14 (33%) for the year while the FPI is 4-12 (25%).
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.
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Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week Five.
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This week's recommended bets had a strong week, thanks mostly to the FPI going 3-2 (60%). My computer went just 1-2 (33%), which brings the year-to-date record to 10-11 (48%). This tally is still quite a bit better than the FPI's year-to-date performance of just 14-30 (32%).
For all 56 games in Week Five, my computer was four games over .500 at 30-26 (54%), bringing the year-to-date totals up to a dead even 136-136. The FPI is trailing behind in both categories (27-29, 48% this week and 133-139, 49% year-to-date.)
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Four.
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Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Five.
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The record for all 16 recommended point total bets was just 7-9 this week with the higher confidence "locks" going just 2-2. However, year-to-date both methods are still over .500. The record for all recommended point total bets is 64-58 (53%) while the locks are now at 13-10 (57%).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week Five, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.
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Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Five.
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Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Five
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There were no upsets in Big Ten play this week and as a result my calculated division odds did not change much, especially considering that No. 3 Ohio State and No. 21 Wisconsin both had a bye.
In the Big Ten East, I have Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State ranked No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 in my computer's power ranking. The Wolverines' strong showing at Nebraska this week was deemed to be more impressive than Penn State's road win at Northwestern.
As a result, No. 1 Michigan (35% to win the East) was able to leapfrog No. 2 Penn State (38%) in the power rankings and close the gap in my calculated division odds. The Nittany Lions easier remaining schedule, including a home game against Michigan, still gives Penn State an edge in odds. No. 3 Ohio State (24%) remains about 10 percentage points back.
No. 25 Maryland (3%) remained undefeated after a win against Indiana this week, but the Terrapins remain a distant fourth in the race for a bid to the Big Ten Championship Game.
In the Big Ten West, No. 21Wisconsin (70%) easily held onto the top spot in my division odds leaderboard despite not playing. No. 46 Iowa (15%) is the only other team with greater than a five percent chance to win the division.
No. 56 Minnesota (4.5%) moved into third place ahead of No. 72 Illinois (2.4%) thanks to the beating that the Illini received by the hands of the No. 58 Purdue Boilermakers (2.2%). No. 64 Northwestern (3.6%) and No. 71 Nebraska (2.1%) round out the candidates in the West.
Remaining Schedule for Michigan State
The Michigan State loss in Iowa City this weekend has done even further damage to the Spartans' expected win total. As Tables 4 and 5 show, that total has dropped to just 3.95 wins with now only a 10% chance that Michigan State gets to six wins.
It is almost time to say "bye bye bye" to the idea of the postseason in East Lansing.
Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for all seven of Michigan State's remaining games.
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Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Five and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference.
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With the Spartans off next week, these numbers will continue to evolve before the Green and White next take to the field. As for now, the easiest path for Michigan State to potentially get to six wins is very clear. The Spartans would need to all of the remaining "winnable" games on the schedule: at Rutgers (-10), at Minnesota (-5.5), versus Nebraska (+2.5), and at Indiana (+3).
The most critical of those four games is the Spartans' next contest at Rutgers once they return from the bye week. My computer currently projects the Scarlet Knights as 10-point favorites. If that projection is wrong or if Michigan State can play a much cleaner football game, the Spartans can certainly steal a victory in Piscataway.
If that happens it could send the season in a new and more positive direction.
National Overview
Let's wrap up today's song and dance with a quick summary of the other action around the country.
In the SEC East, No. 13 Georgia struggled to beat No. 38 Auburn, but eventually got the job done to hold onto to a big lead my calculated odds to win the division (62%). No. 30 Kentucky (14%) scored a huge win at home over No. 41 Florida (5%) and now resides in second place. No. 22 Tennessee (9%) and No. 37 Missouri (9%) remained in the running with wins over No. 45 South Carolina (0.6%) and No. 98 Vanderbilt.
In the SEC West, No. 5 Alabama (58%) covered easily at No. 53 Mississippi State to maintain a solid lead in my calculated odds. No. 10 Texas A&M (27%) covered the spread versus No. 32 Arkansas to remain solidly in second place. Meanwhile, No. 17 Ole Miss (7%) outlasted No. 20 LSU (7%) and now both schools are a long shot to win the division.
In Pac-12 action, No. 7 Oregon (61%) routed No. 104 Stanford on the road while No. 8 Washington (57%) failed to cover at No. 47 Arizona. As a result, the Ducks are now slightly ahead of the Huskies in my calculations.
No. 11 Oregon State (26%) was the big winner out west, thanks to a 14-point home win over No. 18 Utah (16%). The Beavers are once again the dark horses in the Pac-12 race after passing No. 24 USC (19%) after the Trojans latest underwhelming win over No. 54 Colorado.
In the Big 12, the undefeated pair of No. 4 Texas (72%) and No. 6 Oklahoma (66%) both covered at home against No. 49 Kansas (2%) and No. 61 Iowa State (0.6%). The Longhorn and Sooners have separated from the pack and now hold a significant lead over No. 12 Kansas State (36%) which was on a bye and No. 27 West Virginia (14%) which scored an upset win at No. 28 TCU (2%).
Most of the ACC contenders also had a bye in Week Five and as a result there was not a lot of movement in my calculated odds. No. 15 Florida State (54%) and No. 14 Miami (46%) are at the top of the chart. No. 16 Duke (39%) could not get past No. 9 Notre Dame, but the Blue Devil still hold a slight edge over the fourth-place team, idle No. 23 North Carolina (27%).
Farther down the chart, No. Louisville (25%) won at No. 60 North Carolina State (1%) to stay in within shouting distance. No. 29 Clemson (1.4%) avoided an upset at No. 36 Syracuse (4.5%), causing the Orange to virtually drop out of contention.
Finally, in Group of Five action, No. 48 Liberty was on a bye this week as well but remained in first place in my New Year's Six leaderboard with odds of 25%. No. 33 Air Force (24%) and No. 43 Fresno State (15%) both remain undefeated this week and currently round out my top three.
No. 59 James Madison would be the best hope for the Sun Belt if they were bowl eligible this year (thanks to a stupid NCAA rule about transitioning from the FCS) especially after Georgia State adsorbed a loss to Troy. No. 50 Georgia Southern (4%) or undefeated No. 73 Marshall (2%) are also in the running.
No. 42 Tulane (6%) and No. 52 Memphis (3%) are the current best hopes in the American Athletic Conference. Meanwhile, my computer now gives No. 63 Ohio (4%) the best odds out of the MAC to make the New Year's Six. The Bobcats edged in front to No. 75 Toledo (3%) and No. 86 Miami of Ohio (2%) despite being on a bye.
Against all odds, we have reached the end for today. I'm checking out and I'm signing off. Michigan State may be taking the week off, but Bad Betting Advice is never on a bye. That ain't no lie. For now, bye bye bye.
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