2023 Week 6 Preview: Search Party!

These are strange times in East Lansing for Michigan State football. The weather cannot seem to decide if it is fall or still summer. The 2-3 team does not play this week, and even if it were playing, MSU does not have a permanent head coach at the helm. The basketball regular season has yet to begin. Fans are restless. Things are getting weird.

With all this time on our collective hands, many fans (and media members) have taken to the internet and engaged in wild speculation about who will roam the sidelines in Spartan Stadium next year. Names have been dropped. People are yelling. It's been a real party, or a real trip, or a real...something.

But in the real world, the Michigan State football coaching search is a serious matter. This isn't just any old search party. As the old saying goes: "There ain't no party like an Alan Haller-led head coach search party, 'cause an Alan Haller led head coach search party is confidential."

No one actually knows anything right now, but that hasn't stopped fans and media alike from searching for answers.

I am confident that Michigan State will hire a good coach. But good coaches are hard to find. One just can't turn on the television, see one that looks promising, then go pick him up at your local urban Meijer store (or even rural Meijer). It just doesn't work like that, and even if it did, it likely wouldn't work out anyway.

So, what are the qualities that Haller, Michigan State's vice president and athletic director, should be looking for in a new head football coach and where should he be looking? Here are a few ideas.

He should have some previous ties to Michigan State so that he understands the culture and history of the program, but he should also be an outsider with a fresh perspective. He should have tons of relevant experience and tactical acuity, but he should also be young and able to recruit and connect with today's players.

The next coach should also have impeccable morals and demonstrated high ethical standards. Michigan State fans want a bullet-proof coach so that they can avoid any more uncomfortable water cooler conversations with fans of any of the other Big Ten schools in the state.

I wonder if there any Buddhist monks with a working knowledge of wide receiver route combinations or combination blocking? I bet the reanimated corpse of Mother Theresa knows something about cover-3 defense. Those options are worth looking into.

Finally, the next head football coach should not already be employed as a Michigan State coach. Specifically he should not be the head coach of another sport that involves a round ball, a hardwood floor and a big tournament in March. Don't even think about that.

Yes, Haller needs to conduct a thorough search to find the best candidate based on a series of well-defined metrics such as the ones described above. The (Blue?) Devil will be in the details, so Haller will be busy as a Beaver. If he puts the time in, Haller will have qualified candidates up the Wazzu.

From there, Haller and the search party simply need to pick the best candidate. It should be a piece of cake. It is a party, after all.

Big Ten Overview

With Michigan State off this week and searching for answers, let's move this focus of this particular party to the remaining action in the Big Ten. 

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Five, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not from either national poll.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Six, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Indiana and Penn State are also off this week and Northwestern is facing a middle-of-the-pack FCS team in Howard. This leaves five Big Ten conference match-ups.

No. 1 Michigan and No. 3 Ohio State are both close to 20-point favorites on the road at No. 56 Minnesota (+19.5) and at home against No. 25 Maryland (+17.5), respectively. The computers agree that these games will not be close, but both games intrigue me just a bit. 

Conference road games are always a challenge and Maryland might be legitimately good. Can either the Gophers or the Terrapins crash the party at the top of the Big Ten East standings?

Another game that intrigues me is No. 34 Rutgers at No. 21 Wisconsin (-13). My computer has been optimistic about the Scarlet Knights for week now, but those numbers are starting to go in the opposite direction recently. Meanwhile, the Badgers are hitting their stride since losing at Washington State in Week Two. Despite these trends the computers both like Rutgers to cover and something tells me Wisconsin needs to be an upset alert.

We all know how No. 46 Iowa escaped last weekend with a win, but without starting quarterback Cade McNamara (who is out for the season), the party might be over for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is just a four-point favorite at home versus No. 58 Purdue.

The projected most competitive game in Big Ten play this week is also the least consequential as No. 71 Nebraska visits No. 72 Illinois (-3.5). The loser might finish last in the weaker of the two Big Ten divisions.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week Six.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week Six including my algorithms' projected scores.

In both the SEC East and West divisions this week, the teams with the top two current division odds are squaring off. In the East, No. 30 Kentucky is visiting No. 13 Goergia (-14.5) in a battle of undefeated teams. Meanwhile one-loss No. 5 Alabama is visiting one-loss No. 10 Texas A&M (+3.5) for control of the West. The winner of those two games will capture a commanding lead in each division. Maybe someone should throw them a party?

If Kentucky loses to Georgia, as expected, No. 37 Missouri would emerge as the next most likely team to challenge the Bulldogs for the East crown. But before that, the Tigers will need to defend their home turf against a visiting group of Bayou Bengals from No. 20 LSU (-7). To round out the action, No. 17 Ole Miss hosts No. 32 Arkansas.

Out west in the Pac-12 my top two teams, No. 7 Oregon and No. 8 Washington are both on their bye week, leaving the rest of the conference to fight for third place. No. 11 Oregon State is hoping to avoid a potentially crippling upset at No. 57 California (+8.5), and is No. 24 USC versus No. 47 Arizona. 

But the best game of the weekend out west features undefeated No. 39 Washington State at one-loss No. 19 UCLA (-3). The loser here might be out of the race.

The game of the week nationally is in the Big 12 as No. 4 Texas faces No. 6 Oklahoma (+4.5) in the Red Rive Showdown at the original Cotton Bowl stadium in Dallas. The winner will almost have a lock on one of the two berths in the Big 12 Championship Game.

As for other Big 12 teams who could jump ahead of the loser of the Showdown, No. 12 Kansas State has the best odds. The Wildcats will need to pass a test at Oklahoma State (+10) in order to stay in the conversation.

Of the Power Five conferences, the ACC is the most wide open with five teams having at least a 25% chance to reach the conference title game. No. 14 Miami (46%) and No. 15 Florda State (54%) have the best odds and neither team looks to be tested at home this week against either No. 66 Georgia Tech (+17.5) or No. 77 Virginia Tech (+26). 

No. 16 Duke is off this week but No. 23 North Carolina and No. 31 Louisville both face stiff tests to stay on the lead lap of the ACC race. The Tar Heels host No. 36 Syracuse (+9.5) while the Cardinals host No. 9 Notre Dame (-6.5).

Table 3 below summarizes the notable remaining Group of Five action in Week Six.

Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week Six including my algorithms' projected scores.

No. 48 Liberty in Conference USA is 4-0 and has the best current odds (25%) to earn a spot in the New Year's Six. The Flames are big favorites this week against Sam Houston State (+17.5) and look to maintain their first-place status.

No. 43 Fresno State currently holds the third best New Year's Six odds (15%) behind idle No. 33 Air Force (23%). The Bulldogs (-5.5) will be challenged on the road at No. 70 Wyoming and will need to avoid the upset to keep their dreams of New Year's glory alive.

With the top three teams in the American Athletic Conference both on their bye week (No. 42 Tulane, No. 44 SMU, and No. 52 Memphis) as well as the best hope in the Sun Belt (No. 50), the bulk of the remaining games in Table 3 involve one-loss MAC teams trying to stay that way (Miami of Ohio, Toledo, and Ohio)

The exception is undefeated No. 73 Marshall, which could potentially crash the New Year's Six party with an upset with this weekend at No. 60 North Carolina State (-5.5).

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Six.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Six.

Table 4 below summarizes the six total upset picks that can be extracted from the Figures above.

Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week Six

My computer offers a total of four upset picks this week, three of which ESPN's FPI agrees with. The FPI offers two additional picks to the mix. Interestingly, the only Power Five games listed in Table 4 all feature Big 12 conference match-ups. 

Both computers like Texas Tech in a minor upset over Baylor (-1). The FPI also makes the slightly bolder projections of UCF over Kansas (-3) and the big one, Oklahoma to upset Texas (-5).

Note that a simulation of the full week of games suggests that a total of 13.2 plus-or-minus 2.9 upset are most likely. Three of the past four weekends have resulted in a below average number of upsets. One of these weeks the upset numbers will regress to the mean.

Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week Six. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My computer is feeling a bit shy against the spread this week, with only one pick on the board: Liberty to cover versus Sam Houston State (+17.5). The FPI data suggests a total of six other recommended bets, most notably the underdogs in the three Big 12 games highlighted above.

Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.

Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Six. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

Only 10 total games meet the criteria as recommended point total bets, with four of those 10 games qualifying as locks. Interestingly, most of the picks this week are to take the "under" including Maryland at Ohio State (55.5), Arizona at USC (72), and Oklahoma versus Texas (59). 

That is all the advice that I have to offer this week. Join the party early next week to see how the picks above faired.