2023 Week 6 Recap: Back to the Drawing Board

Happy Bye Week Spartan fans. Without a week of stress-watching a certain 2-3 team in Green and White, it was a great chance to relax, reflect, and reset. I hope that everyone had a chance to touch some grass this weekend, perhaps at a local apple orchard or the local Halloween store.

For the Michigan State players and coaches, the week off was a chance to go back to the drawing board and gear up for the final seven games of the season, for better or for worse.

For some Spartan fans out there, though, I feel like there is a different drawing board that needs to be utilized. Bart Simpson has a message for all of you.

Feel free to keep writing it until it sinks in. Urban is not coming. It is not going to happen for two important reasons

1) There are no indications that Meyer is at all interested in the vacant head coaching job in East Lansing

2) It is extremely unlikely that the Michigan State administration would touch Meyer with a ten-foot poll after Mel Tucker was fired in disgrace. Meyer has his own skeletons and that are not exactly in the closet.

Even if somehow Meyer were to come to East Lansing, he would be expensive and there is no guarantee that he would even be successful. He is 59 years old, and he hasn't coached at the college level since 2018.

That said, I get why some people are intrigued. He is a big name, and he would make a big splash. Michigan State would suddenly be the hottest team this side of Colorado in primetime. He would likely recruit very well from the jump.

In a parallel universe where this somehow happens, Meyer would be a controversial hire, at best. Fans of more than one Big Ten East school would absolutely lose their minds. Some have argued that certain folks in the media and at rival programs are never going to give Michigan State a fair shake no matter what happens.

By an extension of this logic, if people are going to label Michigan State as a rogue program either way, maybe they should show the world what a real rogue program in East Lansing looks like. The devil on my left shoulder thinks that might be a kind of fun.

But that doesn't make it the right approach. It is certainly not the road that is going to be explored. No matter how you draw it up, It's. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Week Six Betting Results

Let's now review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Results of Week Six showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

The positive outliers this week that can be drawn from Figure 1 and are Michigan, Georgia, South Alabama, Troy, North Carolina, Kansas, Miami of Ohio, Northern Illinois, and Utah State. Each of those teams beat the spread by over 14 points.

The two teams which overachieved by more than 14 points relative to the spread, yet still won are Clemson and USC.

A total of 14 teams must go back to the drawing board after suffering upset losses this week. This value is slightly higher that the prediction of 13.2 upset made by my computer. On balance, however, the numbers suggest that the 2023 season is approximately five upsets total behind schedule based on the collection of spread data.

Table 1 below summarizes those 14 games and compares these results to the upset picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Six based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The computers had a rough start to the year with upset picks, but the result of Week Six are among the best in recent memory. My computer went a perfect 4-0 on the week while ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) went 4-1 (80%). Year-to-date, my machine is up to a respectable record of 11-14 (44%), while the FPI is just behind at 8-13 (38%).

The biggest upset of the week was Georgia Tech's miracle come back at Miami (+18), if one classifies the opponent making multiple bone-headed mistakes in the final minutes "miraculous." Other notable upsets include Oklahoma State over Kansas State (+10) and Louisville over Notre Dame (+7).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week Six.

The computers have also struggled with picks against the spread this year, but at least the FPI seems to have hit the reset button. My analysis of the ESPN algorithm's data went 5-1 (83%) this week. That is the good news.

The bad news is that my computer was 0-for-1 this week (thanks for nothing, Liberty) and both computers are still below .500 for the year. My computer is sitting at 10-12 (46%) year-to-date while the FPI is at 19-31 (38%) despite this week's strong showing.

When all 49 games are considered, both machines posted a record of 25-24 (51%). For the year, my computer is just a single game over .500 (161-169, 50.2%) while the FPI is five games under (158-163, 49.2%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Six.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Six.

My method for making point total picks has generally been strong all year and historically, but this week was painful. My ten recommended bets went just 2-8 (20%) which included a cider-mill style donut on my usually reliable "locks" (0-4).

Year-to-date the recommended over/under bets are now dead even with a 66-66 record while the locks have drifted under water at 13-14 (48%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Six, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls and the values listed in parathesis are the odds for each team to win their division.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Six.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Six.

For a half or so, it looked like No. 21 Maryland might have the opportunity to make things somewhat interesting in the Big Ten East race. But No. 4 Ohio State managed to pull away and cover leaving the East division still very much a three-team race.

Michigan won big at No. 65 Minnesota and were able to maintain the No. 1 spot in both my calculated odds to win the division (40%) and in my computer's overall power poll. No. 2 Penn State (36%) was idle and are just a few percentage points behind the Wolverines in the division race.

The Buckeye's odds are a bit lower (23%) but they will still have the chance to prove themselves on the field in the coming weeks. Ohio State has the advantage of playing No. 18 Wisconsin as one of the three West Division cross-over games. If the Buckeyes can get a win in Madison, the strength of schedule boost could be a potential tie-breaker to decide the Big Ten Champions game participants in the scenario where there is a three-way tie in the East.

Speaking of the Big Ten west, No. 18 Wisconsin (77%) and No. 49 Iowa (15%) both managed to take care of business at home against No. 33 Rutgers and No. 90 Purdue, respectively to stay at the top of my west division leaderboard.

The only other game of consequence was No. 60 Nebraska (4%) getting an upset win on the road at No. 99 Illinois. The Cornhuskers have risen to third place division odds and are currently the only west team other than Wisconsin and Iowa which is projected to make a bowl game.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

With change in the air and with the Spartans on a bye week it was also a good time to make the annual change in my power ranking algorithm where I remove the bias originating from the preseason ranking of each team. Starting now, the power rankings only reflect actual on-field performance.

As a result, my computer's projections for Michigan State has also changed and the change is not in a positive direction. The Spartans have fallen to No. 82 in my power rankings. Michigan State is now expected to win just 3.7 games and the odds to get to six wins and a bowl game have slipped to just 6.6%.

Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for all seven of Michigan State's remaining games.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Six and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference.

The picture painted by Figure 2 is grim. Michigan State now projects as at least a 24-point underdog against Michigan (-24.5), at Ohio State (-26.5), and versus Penn State (-25.5). To put this into perspective, there has been only one upset all year with a spread in this range: Texas State (+24.5) over Baylor in Week One.

As for the other four contests, the Spartans will most likely need to win all of them in order to get to .500 for the season. After the events of the past weekend, including removing the preseason biasing, I now project that the Spartans will only be favored in one more game this season: the home game against Indiana (+1.5).

If there is any silver lining to any of this, it is that my numbers appear slightly pessimistic. Next week's contest at Rutgers projects as an 11-point loss for the Spartans, but the actual point spread opened with the Scarlet Knights favored by only six points. That is still not good, but it implies that Michigan State has betters odds in Piscataway than my computer believes.

Similarly, the game at Minnesota likely be less than a 6-point spread. I also would guess that if Michigan State were to be hosting Nebraska this week, the Spartans would likely be a narrow favorite. The road ahead is certainly steep, but it might not be quite as bad as Figure 2 suggests.

National Overview

Let's complete today's work at the board with a quick summary of the other action around the country.

This week I will start in the Big 12, which had an eventful weekend. Four of the five conference games ended in an upset, including No. 3 Oklahoma edging No. 5 Texas in the Red River Shootout. As a result, Oklahoma (93%) is now almost guaranteed a slot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

When the chalk dust settled, Texas (62%) is the most likely other Big 12 Championship Game participant. No. 19 Kansas State (9%) stubbed their toe (doh!) against Oklahoma State this weekend to drop in the standings. Idle No. 29 West Virginia (20%) looks like the most promising dark horse team left in the race.

In SEC action, No. 6 Alabama (85%) took care of No. 11 Texas A&M (4%) on the road while No. 9 Georgia (78%) dominated No. 46 Kentucky (2%). The Crimson Tide and Bulldogs appear to be on a collision course once again for the SEC Championship game.

No. 24 LSU (6%) is the most likely remaining challenger in the west, thanks in part to this weekend's win over No. 40 Missouri (5%). In the east, both No. 25 Tennessee (9%) and No. 43 Florida (6%) are longshots, but they will soon get a crack at Georgia.

There were no major surprises in the Pac-12 this week, especially with No. 7 Oregon (67% odds to make the Pac-12 Championship game), No. 8 Washington (59%), and No. 20 Utah (13%) all on a bye. That said, No. 10 Oregon State (29%) avoided the upset at California to stay in third place on my board.

No. 17 UCLA (15%) got by No. 31 Washington State (5%) to stay in the lead pack. Meanwhile, No. 32 USC (12%) stayed undefeated thanks to a late-night triple overtime win over No. 42 Arizona. That is now the third underwhelming win in a row for the Trojans, but they remain in the hunt.

There was a few shake-ups in the ACC leaderboard thanks in large part to No. 14 Miami's (20%) last second upset at the hands of No. 55 Goergia Tech (6%). No. 22 Florida State (44%) failed to cover against No. 86 Virginia Tech, but the Seminoles continue, barely, to hold onto the best odds to advance to the ACC Championship Game.

No. 16 North Carolina (43%) and No. 23 Louisville (41%) both had impressive wins over No. 53 Syracuse and No. 13 Notre Dame, respectively. The Tar Heals and Cardinals are neck-and-neck with Florida State and idle No. 12 Duke (43%) for the two slot in the conference finals.

Finally in the Group of Five chase for the New Year's Six Bowl slot, No. 47 Fresno State (5% odds to make a New Year's Six Bowl) took a major hit with a road loss to No. 62 Wyoming. In additional No. 59 Liberty (13%) was less than impressive in a win over No. 130 Sam Houston State. As a result, undefeated and idle No. 27 Air Force (36%) has captured first place in my Group of Five Leaderboard.

One-loss teams such as No. 34 Tulane (7%) and Georgia Southern (4%) did not play this week but remain very much in the race. The MAC also has a trio of remaining candidates in Miami of Ohio (8%), Ohio (3%), and Toledo (2%).

Against all odds, we have reached the end for today. In just a few days, it will be back to the drawing board with an all new batch of bad betting advice. Stay tuned.