2023 Week 7 Preview: Dark Knights

The Michigan State football season has not been as bright as hoped. As the fall has progressed, a dark cloud descended upon East Lansing. The former face of the program turned out to be a real joker. The days have grown shorter. The nights have grown longer, and the losses on the football field have accumulated.

After a week of rest, the Spartans will emerge from the bat cave and will make a trip towards Gotham to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Rumors are circling that a new hero may be emerging in East Lansing to potentially lead the Spartan into battle this weekend. It is possible, if not likely, that redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser will start or at least see significant time against Rutgers. 

Will this potential change actually make a dent in any of the Spartans' long list of issues? Can Houser be the white knight who will provide a spark? Under his leadership can the offense reduce the penalties and turnovers that have been the bane of Michigan State's existence over the past few weeks? Spartan fans are keenly interested in the answer to these riddles. It feels like a coin-flip as to whether this potential experiment will lead to success or failure.

In any event, the stakes this weekend remain as high as ever. For the third time in the past three games, the fate of the season may be on the line. It would be a crime for the Spartans to miss out on a bowl two years in a row. But with only two wins so far and likely only four winnable games left on the schedule, that margin of error has shrunk to zero.

A loss this weekend would plunge the prospects of a winning season into a hole as deep and as dark as Arkham prison. It would take a truly heroic performance for the rest of the season to emerge.

But if Michigan State can find a way to win this game, it would provide that glimmer of hope that Spartan fans have been waiting on for weeks. Hope can be a dangerous thing. If nothing else, it would make next week a whole lot more interesting.

MSU Prediction

Michigan State and Rutgers have faced off 14 times in history, with the Spartans holding a 10-4 advantage in overall record. The two schools met five times between 1988 and 2004 with the Scarlet Knights winning three of those five games.

Since Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014, Michigan State is 8-1, with the only loss coming in Mel Tucker's first game in 2020 where the Spartans turned the ball over seven times at home.

In the 11 games between the two teams going back to 2003, Michigan State has been favored in all 11 games. That streak has come to an end in 2023 as Rutgers opened as a six-point favorite. The line appears to be moving in a green direction and at press is sitting with Michigan State +5 and with an over/under of 39.5 points.

Michigan State is 5-6 against the spread in the last 11 games against Rutgers. The teams have hit the under on points in three of the last 10 games.

Based on the opening spread, there is a 33% chance that Michigan State can rebound with a victory following the bye week. The FPI prediction is for the Spartans to fall short, but to (barely) cover the current five-point spread. 

My computer, however, is not as optimistic. It has Rutgers beating Michigan State by a score of 28-16, which would also hit the "over" on points. 

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Seven, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not from either national poll.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Seven, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern are all on a bye this week, and No. 2 Penn State might as well be, since the Nittany Lions are 42-point favorites against Massachusetts. This leaves five total conference games.

No. 1 Michigan (-33.5) and No. 4 Ohio State (-20) look to inflict some serious pain on the Hoosier state as they are both huge favorites against No. 103 Indiana and at No. 70 Purdue. No. 21 Maryland is still technically alive in the race for the East crown. The Terrapins (-14) are unlikely to be tested at home by No. 99 Illinois.

The only other game outside of Piscataway, New Jersey this week is the big one in the Big Ten West. No. 49 Iowa travels to No. 18 Wisconsin (-9.5). If the Badgers win, as expected, it is tough to find a plausible scenario where they do not win the West. If Iowa can get the upset, the race get interesting again.

My algorithm likes all six favored teams to cover in Big Ten play. ESPN's FPI has Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan State covering.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week Five.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week Seven including my algorithms' projected scores.

The biggest games of the weekend take place on the west coast, highlighted by No. 7 Oregon at No. 8 Washington (-3.5). The winner will be in excellent shape to claim one of the spots in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Both computers like the Ducks to cover, and the FPI is even sounding an upset alert.

The loser of the Oregon/Washington game will find themselves in a battle with the winner of No. 17 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon State (-5) for the second and final spot in the Pac 12 title game. Both computers like the Beavers to win and cover.

No. 32 USC is still undefeated but are facing a tough road game at No. 13 Notre Dame (-2.5). My computer has the Fighting Irish covering easily. In other Pac-12 action, No. 31 Washington State (-8.5) and No. 20 Utah (-13.5) will try to avoid an upset at home against No. 42 Arizona and No. 54 California, respectively.

In SEC action, division favorites No. 6 Alabama (-20) and No. 9 Georgia (-31.5) are expected to cruise past No. 30 Arkansas and No. 102 Vanderbilt. But two potential division dark horses will face stiffer challenges. 

No. 25 Tennessee (-3.5) hosts No. 11 Texas A&M in an east/west crossover game that could be a division race elimination game. In SEC west action, No. 24 LSU (-11.5) will need to get past No. 35 Auburn in order to help hope alive for a trip to the SEC Championship game.

In the Big 12, conference favorites No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 5 Texas have the week off while remaining contenders will attempt to stay in the race. No. 29 West Virginia is the only team other than Oklahoma without a conference loss. The Moutaineers hope to stay that way this week at Houston (+1.5). 

Down the ballot, there are several other competitive Big 12 games that will help to sort out the pecking order in the middle of the conference including No. 19 Kansas State at No. 26 Texas Tech (-1), No. 38 Kansas (-3.5)  at No. 69 Oklahoma State, and No. 28 BYU (-5) at No. 39 TCU. The loser of all three contest will have at least two conference losses.

The ACC race remains the most competitive with five teams all having no more than one loss on the season. No. 22 Florida State (-17) hosts No. 53 Syracuse in what should be the least competitive game, while No. 23 Louisville (-10) is expected to survive a rough test at No. 94 Pittsburgh. 

Two other ACC conference games are more intriguing. No. 12 Duke (-3.5) hosts No. 66 North Carolina State in a contest that Vegas feels will be much closer than my computer expects. The game-of-the-week on the coast, however, is No. 14 Miami at No. 16 North Carolina (-4). The Hurricanes will look to redeem themselves following last week's debacle less-second loss to Georgia Tech.

Table 3 below summarizes the notable remaining Group of Five action in Week Five.

Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week Seven including my algorithms' projected scores.

Here there are several games that will have implications on various conference races and by extension the eventual New Year's Six participant. The marquee game is No. 34 Tulane (-3) at No. 58 Memphis, in the American Athletic Conference. No. 62 Wyoming at No. 27 Air Force (-10) will also have a major Moutain West race. 

Note that No. 59 Liberty beat No. 67 Jacksonville State by a score of 31-13 on Tuesday night despite my computer issuing an upset alert. The Flames remaining undefeated and a strong candidate to reach the New Year's Six.

In the Sun Belt, No. 41 Georgia Southern may be the conference's final hope at the New Year's Six berth, but the Eagles are underdogs at No. 45 James Madison (-3.5). Meanwhile, No. 48 Miami of Ohio, No. 68 Ohio, and No. 78 Toledo are lurking in the shadows of the Group of Five race with just one loss each so far this year.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Seven.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Seven.

The information in the two figures above implies that a total of 10 games are projected by the two computers to end in upsets. Those 10 upsets picks are summarized below in Table 4

Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week Seven.

The most notable picks here are for Texas A&M (+3.5) to take out Tennessee and for Oregon (+3.5) to upset Washington. A simulation of the full week's action suggests that 14.6 plus-or-minus 3.1 upsets are likely in Week Seven. This is the highest number of projected upsets so far in 2023.

Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week Seven. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

Both computers suggest that Charlotte and Duke will cover the spread this weekend. My machine also likes Notre Dame and Penn State to cover.

Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.

Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Seven. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

After last week's awful point total performance, but computer seems content to sit and brood alone the bat cave. My calculations yield only four total one and two locks. Taking the "over" for the Iowa at Wisconsin game in the only potential power five wager on the board.

That is all the advice that I have to offer this week. Enjoy the games and check back in early next week to see the picks performed.