2023 Week 7 Recap: Eclipse

On Saturday afternoon, something out of the ordinary happened. The moon passed between the earth and the sun, causing a partial solar eclipse that was visible across most of North America. Had the skies above SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey been clear during the second quarter of the football game between the Michigan State Spartans and Rutgers Scarlet Knights, the fans could have witnessed this rare celestial event.

Instead, those fans witnessed something else entirely.

Early on, it was new starting Spartan quarterback Katin Houser who was stealing the limelight. Young Houser had eclipsed Noah Kim on the depth chart, and he played well despite the weather and the road atmosphere. Houser's star was on the rise. Michigan State fans had hope that Houser was the bright-eyed missing piece that the Spartan needed now, more than ever, to turn things around.

But as the fourth quarter began, the lights went out for the Spartans in dramatic fashion. The botched punt, the muffed kick return, and the sudden lack of any form of defense was such a bizarre turn of events that an ancient football fan would have assumed that it was due to some form of witchcraft or other evil magic. Personally, I am not ready to rule either out.

Now, the season is officially falling apart. Michigan State sits at 2-4 and the hopes of even the most optimistic fan has been plunged into darkness. For the Spartan to just get to .500 for the season, a win over Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State will be needed.

I understand the emotions that are going through the heads of Spartan fans right now. Every now and then we get a little bit nervous that the best of all the years have gone by. Some fans are a little bit terrified while others are a little bit tired of listening to the sound of each other's tears. It has been an exhausting month, and it feels like there's nothing that we can do.

But just like a solar eclipse or an 80s pop song, the darkness will only last for so long. I believe that brighter days are on the horizon. Every program goes through rough patches every now and then. But Spartan nation is strong and together we can take it to the end of the line.

True Spartan fans will be holding on forever, and forever's going to start tonight.

Week Seven Betting Results

Let's now review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Results of Week Seven showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 11 teams notably overachieved relative to the Vegas spread, including Penn State (not shown), Florida State, LSU, TCU, Notre Dame, Duke, and Missouri. Three total teams won but failed to cover the spread by more than 14 points: Georgia (not shown), Alabama, and Texas State.

The number of upsets so far this year has been slightly below expectation. Week Seven, however, had a total of 17 upsets, which eclipsed the previous high of 14 upsets in Week Six. Table 1 below summarizes those 17 games and compares these results to the upset picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Seven based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

While there were a large number of upsets, only three of them were in games where the opening spread was over 10 points. Those three biggest upsets were Illinois (+14.5) over Maryland, Stanford (+11.5) over Colorado in primetime on Friday, and Pittsburgh (+10) over Louisville.

Other notable upsets include Iowa (+9.5) over Wisconsin, Arizona (+8.5) over Washington State, Oklahoma State (+3.5) over Kansas, Florida (+2) over South Carolina, and Kansas State (+1) over Texas Tech.

Despite all the upsets, the computers only correctly foresaw two of them: wins by Middle Tennessee State and Virginia Tech. My computer posted a record of just 2-6 (25%) which was narrowly eclipsed by the performance of ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) with a record of 2-5 (29%).

Year-to-date, my computer's record dropped just under 40% at 13-20 which is still a bit better than the FPI's record of 10-18 (36%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week Seven.

My computer had one the best weekends of the year so far, going 3-1 (75%) in recommended picks. This bolstered the year-to-date record to an even 13-13. The FPI did a bit worse with a 2-3 (40%) performance, bringing its year-to-date record to 21-24 (38%).

When the results of all 55 games are considered, my algorithm did a bit worse, going just 24-31 (44%). In this regard, the FPI had the better week, going 27-28 (49%). Coincidentally, both my algorithm and the FPI have a equal year-to-date record of 185-191 (49%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Seven.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Seven.

After a very strong 2022 season, my point total bets took yet another hit. The "lock" predictions were just .500 but over all these peaks went just 1-3 (25%) in Week Seven. For the year, the locks are a game under .500 at 14-15 (48%) and the overall picks are two games under at 67-69 (49%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Seven, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls and the values listed in parathesis are the odds for each team to win their division.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Seven.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Seven

We did not get much clarity in the Big Ten East race this week as the three teams at the top of my leaderboard all won big and covered. Those three schools now also occupy the top three spots nationally in my power ranking.

My computer was most impressed with No. 1 Penn State's shutout win over Massachusetts which allowed the Nittany Lions to jump into the top spot with a 37% chance to win the division. No. 2 Michigan (33%) and No. 3 Ohio State (30%) are just a few percentage points back. With Penn State traveling to Columbus next weekend, we will soon finally see some separation in the chase for the East crown.

The only other notable result in the East was No. 33 Maryland's home upset loss to No. 87 Illinois which effectively eliminated any small chance that the Terrapins could make a surprise run to the top of the division standings.

The big news in Big Ten land happened in the West division as No. 29 Iowa earned an upset road win over No. 40 Wisconsin by the very "Big Ten West" score of 15-6. This beauty of a game featured one touchdown, one safety, four field goals, and 18 punts. Fans in Madison were given dark glasses at halftime and advised not to look directly at the action on the field.

As a result, the Hawkeyes (66%) have taken control of the Big Ten West race, with Wisconsin (16%) still with the second-best odds ahead of No. 56 Nebraska (8%), No. 63 Minnesota (4%), No. 83. Northwestern (3.5%), and No. 87 Illinois (1.8%).

Note that outside of Iowa and Wisconsin, Nebraska is the only other team in the west with better than a 50% chance to make a bowl game with odds at 64%.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

If there is any silver lining at all to Spartans' 27-24 loss to Rutgers it is that Michigan State covered and still objectively did better than expected. The Spartans rose to No. 70 in my power ranking and the expected win total held steady at 3.6 wins.

However, the third consecutive loss dropped Michigan State's odds of climbing back to 6-6 down to just 3.7%. Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for all seven of Michigan State's remaining games.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Six and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference.

Ironically, the Spartans' outlook for the backend of the season looks slightly better than it did last week. The home game with Nebraska is now projected as a toss-up. Michigan State is projected to be a field goal favorite on the road at Indiana and a field-goal underdog on the road at Minnesota.

The Spartans need to win all three of those games to get to at least five wins. A 5-7 record could potentially earn Michigan State a bowl bid if not enough 6-6 teams are available. The odds of sweeping that trio of games is not as high as one might expect. It is just 12%

As for the trio of games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State, the odds that the Spartan win at least one of those games is oddly also 12%. That is likely better than most fans would expect.

I suppose that there is a lesson in there somewhere. When it comes to sports, the good times are often not as good as the optimists think and the bad times are not as bad as the pessimists think.

National Overview

Before the sun sets on this analysis, let's quickly review the other action from around the country in Week Seven. This week also am also debuting my College Football playoff leaderboard which is shown below in Table 6. The leaderboard summarizes each contender's odds to win their conference, make the playoffs, and win the national title. The table also gives each team's current power ranking, strength of record, and strength of resume.

Table 6: College Football Playoffs leaderboard following the results of Week Seven.

The most noteworthy results were in the Pac-12 where No. 7 Washington edged No. 6 Oregon in Seattle to take command of the conference race. My calculations give the Huskies an 84% chance to advance to the Pac-12 championship game. Despite the loss, Oregon maintains the second-best odds at 58%, so an early December rematch appears more likely than not.

Washington currently has the second-best strength of resume behind only No. 4 Oklahoma and the third best playoff odds at 42%. Oregon is eighth on the playoff leaderboard with a 26% chance to make the Final Four.

No. 13 Oregon State (25%) stayed in third place thanks to a win over No. 22 UCLA (2.4%). No. 34 USC (13%) took their first loss of the season at No. 10 Notre Dame. Despite the Trojans' undefeated conference record, my power rankings have USC with the fourth best Pac-12 odds. just ahead of No. 20 Utah (13%).

No. 59 Washington State (0.13%) likely played themselves out of the conference race with an upset loss at home to No. 24 Arizona.

The race in the SEC was status quo as both No. 8 Alabama (78% odds to win the SEC West) and No. 15 Georgia (60% odds to win the East) both won but failed to cover against No. 28 Arkansas and No. 100 Vanderbilt, respectably.

Neither team is impressing my computer right now, which begs the question as to whether there is a scenario where the SEC champion gets left out of the playoffs. Alabama holds the fourth best resume but is seventh overall in playoff odds at just 27%. Georgia has just the No. 13 ranked resume and the eleventh best current odds to make the playoffs. While it is hard to imagine the SEC to be frozen out of the playoffs and eclipsed by members of the other Power Five conferences, it is a story worth watching.

As for potential SEC division challengers, No. 21 Tennessee (19%) is the most likely candidate in the East following the Volunteers' win versus No. 17 Texas A&M (1.6%). No. 32 Missouri (14%) also has just one loss after this week's win at No. 57 Kentucky (0.3%). In the SEC West, No. 16 LSU (15%) is the most feasible candidate following a 30-point win versus No. 43 Auburn.

In the Big 12, No. 12 Kansas State (24% odds to make the Big 12 Championship game) fended off No. 26 Texas Tech (1%) to maintain third place in my conference odds leaderboard behind idle No. 4 Oklahoma (96%) and No. 5 Texas (57%). No. 35 West Virgina (7%) dropped to fifth place following as upset loss at No. 71 Houston (0.2%).

Oklahoma current owns the strongest overall resume and the best odds to make the playoffs at 62%. Texas is in the top 10 in both resume and schedule strength with the ninth best odds (21%) to make the playoffs.

They are still longshots, but No. 27 Iowa State (11%) and No. 55 Oklahoma State (2.4%) join Texas, West Virginia, and Kansas State with just one conference loss. The Cyclones and Cowboys managed to upset No. 65 Cincinnati and No. 44 Kansas this weekend.

The picture in the ACC is clearer this week. No. 37 Louisville (10%) was upset at No. 80 Pittsburgh and No. 19 Miami (3%) could not get past No. 18 North Carolina (54%) on the road. As a result, North Carolina is joined by No. 9 Duke (58%) and No. 11 Florida State (67%) as the three remaining teams undefeated in ACC conference play and in a three-way race for the two spots in the Championship game. Duke and Florida State defeated No. 79 North Carolina State and No. 66 Syracuse, respectively.

Florida State has the best odds of the ACC teams to make the playoffs (30%) with North Carolina (19%) and Duke (14%) still in the top 12.

It also should be noted that three of the top five teams in my playoff leaderboard are from the Big Ten. Penn State has the second-best odds (45%), Michigan is in fourth place (40%), and Ohio State (36%) in is fifth place. Those three teams will certainly beat up on each other but it is certainly reasonable to imagine two Big Ten teams making the Final Four again this year.

The updated Group of Five leaderboard is shown below in Table 7.

Table 4: Leaderboard for the Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six.

No. 30 Air Force and No. 48 Liberty both got huge conference wins against No. 60 Wyoming and No. 85 Jacksonville State to remain the only bowl-eligible undefeated teams in the Group of Five. The Falcons (34%) and the Flames (30%) have the best odds to represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Six.

Five other Group of Five teams have just one loss. No. 36 Tulane defeated No. 50 Memphis this week to hold steady in third place (11%) on the leaderboard. In MACtion, No. 52 Miami of Ohio (7%) and No. 69 Toledo (3%) both won to stay in the New Year's Six conversation.

Schools such as No. 62 Georgia Southern and No. 67 Ohio were less fortunate. Georgia Southern was blown out by James Madison (who remains in a bowl-ineligible due to their transition to the FBS) and Ohio was upset by Northern Illinois. Neither team is likely to play in a New Year's Six Bowl.

Against all odds, we have reached the end for today. In just a few days, I will be back with a new batch of bad betting advice. Make sure to keep the lights on for us.