The Case for Optimism

In my experience there are two kinds of Michigan State fans. First, there are the pessimists. These are the members of the Spartan fan base who always expect the worst. Any amount of success for the Green and White is viewed to be a temporary spat of good luck. Even in the years when Dantonio was winning the Rose Bowl and Izzo was going to the Final Four, dark times were always just around the bend.

Then, there are the eternal optimists. This part of the Spartan fan base always bets on the "over." These fans expect to go to, and win, and bowl games every year. They expect that the Spartans can win or least be competitive in every game on the schedule. The optimists believe that Michigan State can be the best Big Ten athletic department in the state.

When it comes to the 2023 Michigan State football team, the pessimists are having a field day. A major scandal, a fired head coach, a rash of decommitments, and a four-game losing streak will do that. Less than 24 months after hoisting a Peach Bowl trophy in Atlanta, Spartan football appears to be near rock bottom. 

The scary thing is that as bad as the first half of the 2023 season has been, things could get a lot worse in the second half. Michigan State has been blessed with the most difficult schedule in the country this year. Four of the Spartans' opponents are currently ranked in the top six of the current coaches' poll, and three of those four opponents (Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan) have yet to be played.

This week, of course, is Michigan Week. On Saturday evening in Spartan Stadium, the Spartans and the Wolverines will square off for the right to bring the Paul Bunyan Trophy home. Even in the best of times, Michigan Week is a time of nervous energy and anxiety.

But this is not the best of times. 

The squad that the Wolverines will bring to Spartan Stadium is good. They are currently ranked No. 2 in the nation and many prognosticators suggest Michigan might be the best team in the country. They are so good that they might even win a bowl game this year. Some suggest that they could win a pair of them.

As for the game itself this Saturday the oddsmakers have set the opening line at Michigan -24. My analysis of the historical record reveals that this is the largest opening spread in the history of the rivalry going back to 1997. 

History also tells me that teams which are 25-point underdogs win straight less than 5% of the time. An upset of this magnitude typically occurs once or twice a year.  These are approximately the same odds that a No. 15 seed has to beat a No. 2 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. 

If the Spartans were to pull the upset, it would be the second most unlikely upset of the season so far, behind only Texas State's Week One upset over Baylor (-24.5). It would be the biggest upset in the history of the rivalry since Desmond Howard and the Wolverines slipped up at home in 1990. It would be the biggest upset for a Michigan State team period since a young Nick Saban beat the Buckeyes (-27.5) in Columbus in 1998.

In other words, the odds are not in favor of the Green and White on Saturday night. If you happen to be one of those pessimistic Spartans fans, you can just stop reading now. Because, as the self-appointed Chief Optimism Officer of Spartans Illustrated, I am here to tell you that Michigan State has a chance on Saturday. I am here to present the case for optimism and hope.

The path for a Spartan victory is narrow and rocky, but it does exist. The odds are small, but they are not zero. If nothing else, the odds that Michigan State reclaims Paul Bunyan are still higher than the odds that Urban Meyer is the next head football coach in East Lansing.

Ladies and gentlemen of the MSU sports internet, I present my case for optimism and hope this weekend.

History says the game is likely to be close

Despite the very large point spread this year, history shows that Michigan State usually plays Michigan much closer than expected, especially at home. The Spartans are 8-5 against the spread at home since 1997 and 6-1 since 2009.

Michigan rarely wins by double digits in East Lansing. In fact, it has only happened 12 times in history and only three times in the last 40 years. Michigan won 21-7 in 2018, 23-7 in 1997, and 45-28 in 1991. The remaining 15 most recent home games for the Spartans were either single-digit losses (in five games) or straight-up wins (10). One must go back to a 31-0 shutout in 1985 to find a scoring margin as big as the one floating in the daydreams of the Wolverine faithful this week.

The most recent home game for the Spartans under similar circumstances was 2016, when the point spread for the rivalry game in East Lansing was a similar +24.5 for Michigan at kick-off. Michigan State trailed much of that contest, but almost made things interesting in the fourth quarter before finally falling 32-23.

I am optimistic that the 2023 Spartan team is significantly better than the squad from 2016, which leads to:

MSU may not be as bad as (the pessimists) think

The Spartans current record of 2-4 is unsightly, and the various computer rankings paint an ugly picture. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Michigan State as No. 59 in the country. The SP+ algorithm has MSU at No. 55. My computer is not even that generous. It has the Spartans ranked No. 70.

That said, while the Spartans were clearly on the losing end of the scoreboard in each of the past four weekends, a peak at the box scores shows some encouraging signs. The loss to No. 5 Washington was a complete beat-down, but it came on the heels of a wild and emotional week for the Spartans. The other three games are a different matter.

Michigan State got behind early against Maryland, but for the game the Spartans had more first downs (26 to 18), more total yards (376 to 362) and held the ball for almost three minutes longer than the Terrapins. The problem on that particular Saturday was turnovers, where Michigan State was -4 for the day. 

In the game at Iowa City, the Spartans were the better team for the first three quarters. Michigan State once again accumulated more first downs (20 to 15), total yards (349 to 222), and held the ball for longer (by over seven minutes). Once again, the four turnovers were the story.

Last weekend, the case can be made the Michigan State was not just the better team for the first three quarters, but that they were the much better team. It took multiple special teams' errors in the fourth quarter to turn the tide in Rutgers' favor. The Spartans also seem to have found the quarterback of the future in Katin Houser.

If the Spartans were to have eliminated (or just reduced) the turnovers and special teams' errors, it is not difficult to imagine a scenario where Michigan State is 5-1 with a single loss to a top five team. The difference between 2-4 and 5-1 can sometimes be remarkably small. The conversation this week would be much different in that scenario.

Maryland, Iowa, and Rutgers are not among the Big Ten elite, but they are all solid teams. Iowa is now the front runner in the Big Ten West. Most importantly, all three teams are better than any team who has faced the Wolverines so far this year. The exception is the lone common opponent, Rutgers, which Michigan State played on the road and which Michigan faced at home.

This line of reasoning leads to the next point.

Michigan is untested and their emotions might work against them

Michigan's schedule so far has not exactly been a murder's row. If fact, my calculations rate the Wolverine's schedule year-to-date as the 21st easiest in the nation and the second easiest of all Power Five teams. 

Ironically, the only Power Five team which grades out with an easier schedule so far is No. 1 Georgia. By contrast, Michigan State plays the overall toughest schedule in the nation this year. Year-to-date, the Spartans' schedule grades out as the 18th most difficult.

The Wolverines are blowing teams out, yes, but they are relatively untested. Against the only common opponent, Rutgers, Michigan led the Scarlet Knights by 14-7 at half time and 24-7 at the end of the third quarter. Michigan State led Rutgers 17-6 at half time and 24-6 at the end of the third quarter, on the road. While the fourth quarters of those two games played out very differently, one could argue that the Spartans had the slight edge in the opening 45 minutes.

Michigan has the tendency of starting off slow in games this year, and Michigan State always plays Michigan tough. It will be the hardest hitting game that the Wolverines have seen all year. The guys in Maize and Blue better be ready for it.

This rivalry has always been emotional, and that intensity has only ratcheted up over the past few years. On some level this year will be no different. But there are aspects of this year's game which may not break in Michigan's favor.

For the first time in the history of the rivalry, it will be a night game played in East Lansing. Michigan State has had a tough year, and they literally have nothing to lose. They are on the verge of missing a bowl game and they don't even have a head coach. The Spartans have the freedom to play loose, and any positive momentum early will be loudly amplified by a well lubricated home crowd.

The team on the opposite sideline, however, has everything to lose. Many folks in Ann Arbor see this as the best chance for the Wolverines to claim a consensus national title since 1948. The SEC appears to be having a down year, and the path is opening for another team to break down the door. 

The problem is that Michigan is not the only elite team in the Big Ten East. Both No. 7 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State also both have eyes on a potential playoff berth and both remain on Michigan's schedule. The Wolverines can afford to lose one game and they will still feel good about finishing in the top four of the final playoff poll. But 10-2 is not likely to get the job down. If the Wolverines lose on Saturday, their margin for error shrinks to zero.

Furthermore, Michigan is honestly never properly prepared emotionally to face the Spartans. It is part of the Wolverine culture, in football especially, to believe that they are the "Leaders and Best" in all situations, often in the face of significant evidence to the contrary. 

Michigan expects to beat Michigan State every year, because on some level, they believe that it is their birthright. In some years, the Wolverines have entered the contest with Michigan State with the apparent attitude that they just need to "show up and be awesome". That strategy worked for several decades... until it didn't.

The fact is that Michigan State won 10 of the last 15 games against Michigan. It appears that the Spartans have finally got the attention of the Wolverines. However, the pendulum may have swung too far in the opposite direction. Now, Michigan does not just want to beat Michigan State, they want to humiliate them. Perhaps deep down they believe that this will erase some of the painful memories of the past 15 years.

Last year in the fourth quarter, Michigan tried, quite hard, to run up the score against Michigan State. This strategy failed. After the game, two of their players went skipping up the tunnel in a crowd of angry Spartans. The melee that ensued resulted in mass suspensions and the threat of lawsuits. 

Michigan State went on to lose a game against Indiana a few weeks later that cost the Spartans a bowl game and 15 valuable practices for the younger players. For the first time in history, Michigan figured out a way to beat the Spartans twice in the same season.

Either way, there is a good chance that the Wolverines (either consciously or subconsciously) will enter the game on Saturday thinking, if not expecting to win the game by 35 points or more. If Michigan has another slow start or if the ball bounces the wrong way early, the Wolverines could find themselves in an early hole in a very hostile environment.

If such a scenario were to play out, how will these Wolverines react? Will they press more? Will that lead to more mistakes and an even bigger hole? A very similar scenario played it in front of the nation in the national semifinal against TCU. Michigan wound up losing that game. Could the Spartans steal a page from that playbook and steal an upset victory?

Michigan State has a secret weapon

In addition to the potential advantages listed above, the Spartans have one additional secret weapon. TCU didn't have it. Michigan certainly doesn't have it. Michigan State didn't even have him until a few weeks ago.

But the Spartans did have this weapon between 2007 and 2019. In that span Michigan State had a winning record against the Wolverines, including a span where the Spartan won seven of eight games. The secret weapon won more Big Ten titles and Bowl Games than Michigan has won since members of their freshman class have been alive.

That secret weapon is Mark Dantonio.

When Coach Dantonio arrived in East Lansing, he changed the rules of the rivalry in a way that no coach since Duffy Daugherty has been able to manage. Dantonio refused to kowtow to the mighty Wolverines. He refused to play second fiddle in the state. When a certain diminutive running back running back chose to win with arrogance and snugness instead of class, Dantonio put him in his place. 

"It's not over. It will never be over. It's just getting started."

Those words still generate butterflies in the stomachs of Spartan fans. They also likely still strike fear into the hearts of Wolverine fans. Coach Dantonio owned the Wolverines for a decade. He had a certain way of getting the Spartans to play at their absolute peak during Michigan Week. 

And this year he is back.

Granted, his presence on the sidelines over the past four weeks didn't seem to help. But Michigan Week is different. Can Dantonio work some magic? Does he still have a few tricks up his sleeve? Can we at least see one properly executed fake punt or kick? Please? Just for me?

If all that doesn't work...

That all said, the cold, hard numbers still tell that more likely than not, Michigan State is not going to win this weekend. In that eventuality, I encourage Spartan fans not to lose hope. Brighter days are just over the horizon.

For the reasons stated above, I believe that there is a team with some talent in East Lansing. I do not think that Spartan football fans will need to wait until next fall for something to feel good about. I believe that this team will still generate some good, happen moments. Even last year's team found a way to beat Wisconsin and Illinois.

Based on the situation and the remaining schedule, they may not have the time left or talent required to win four of the final six games needed to earn a bowl bid. That is unfortunate, but it is not the end of the world or even the end of the program.

Next season a new era of Spartan football will begin with a new coach. The roster will look a lot different, and that's okay as well. Michigan State has the resources, the facilities, the history, and the fan base to attract and hire an excellent head football coach.

No matter which team takes Paul back home with them, next year will provide yet another opportunity to retain him or to reclaim him. So will the year after that, and after that, and after that.

It is not over. I will never be over. Very soon, it will begin again.