This Saturday the Michigan State Spartans will host the Nebraska Cornhuskers. The University of Nebraska's mascot is literally a dude whose job is to manually process corn. The Huskers have a physical mascot that roams the sidelines. His name is Herbie Husker and he looks like this:
There is not a lot to talk about when it comes to Michigan State football, but I feal that I should at least have the energy and motivation to make fun of the mascot for this week's opponent.
I should be able to deploy several paragraphs of corny jokes. The opponent alone provides some serious low hanging fruit ears. I should be able to produce some "a-maize-ing" content in this intro that really pops.
But after watching the Spartans get creamed on the field for six straight weeks, I am not sure that I have it in me anymore. Much like the season as whole, I feel like a husk of my former self. You would think that I could at least produce one Field of Dreams reference (Wait. That's Iowa. Shucks.) But I got nothing.
Unfortunately, it seems that my current feeling of "ma(la)ize" is shared by the Spartan football team. The effort last weekend in Minneapolis was flat and uninspiring. This weekend Michigan State will celebrate this year's seniors. Perhaps that will spark some kernel of emotion that can carry the team to victory.
That's possible, but it just doesn't seem likely. Either way, it is important to show up, cheer, and support the kids who have been giving it their all out on the field. This season has not progressed in the way that anyone wanted or expected, but that does not fall on the players. It falls on the leaders and the adults who let them down.
Athletic Director Alan Haller and his staff are currently out in the field stalking new talent to lead the program going forward. I am confident that the search will yield a high-quality coach and staff that will make Spartan fans proud. The sun will once again rise on Spartan Football.
MSU Prediction
Michigan State has faced Nebraska 12 times in history stretching back to 1914. The Cornhuskers won the first seven games in the series until the Spartans claimed their first victory in 2013. Since then, the teams have split the last four contests.
Similar to the story with Minnesota last week, Michigan State has struggled mightily against the spread versus Nebraska. The Spartans are just 1-7 against the spread this century, which the only cover happening in the Rose Bowl season of 2013.
Nebraska will be coming into Spartan Stadium as a 3.5-point favorite. If the Spartans are to score an upset victory, they will need to shuck off more than one historical trend. Based on the spread, Michigan State has a 40% chance to send the senior home as winners.
The Cornhuskers started the season 0-2 with losses to Minnesota and Colorado, but they are 5-1 since. Nebraska is now just one win away from bowl eligibility. More critically, Nebraska finds themselves in a first-place tie in the Big Ten West.
In other words, the Huskers have a lot left to play for this season. Meanwhile the Spartans are left only playing for pride, for the seniors, and for the chance to play spoiler. Will this be enough to break the six-game losing streak?
My computer does not think so, and I would tend to agree. While I still believe that there are some talented pieces on the Spartan roster, I will remain in a "I will believe it when I see it" mode of hopeful skepticism. My computer projects a final score of Nebraska 24, Michigan State 18.
Let's now move to a review of the upcoming action in the Big Ten in Week 10 where all 14 teams are in action this week. Table 1 below includes my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials for all seven games.
Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not the newly revealed College Football Playoff rankings.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 10, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
As mentioned above, there are currently four teams in the Big Ten West who are tied at 3-2 at the top of the standings: No. 41 Iowa, No. 44 Wisconsin, No. 45 Nebraska, and No. 53 Minnestoa. Somehow none of the four tied Big Ten West teams are playing each other and all four teams are favored this week.
Minnesota (-3) faces the toughest challenge with a home game against No. 80 Illinois, while Iowa (-6) hosts the similarly dangerous Chicago-based Illinoisans that attend No. 84 Northwestern. Wisconsin (-9.5) is on the road, but face a weaker opponent in No. 86 Indiana. Can all four teams keep pace?
In Big Ten East action, No. 1 Michigan* is the only member of the group of division contenders with a home game this week. The Wolverines (-33) are huge favorites against No. 83 Purdue.
No. 2 Ohio State (-18) is expected to get past No. 43 Rutgers on the road, but No. 4 Penn State (-10.5) will be facing a stiffer challenge at No. 35 Maryland. Neither team has played well as of late, so the winner may just be the team that underachieves the least.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week Eight.
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Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week Eight including my algorithms' projected scores.
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The remainder of the Power Five conference features a veritable cornucopia of high-level matchups, especially in the Big 12 and the SEC.
There is currently a five-way tie at the top of the Big 12 standings and four of those teams are squaring off this weekend. No. 5 Texas and No. 9 Oklahoma are the presumed favorites to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game, but my computer is not so sure. My calculations say that No. 3 Kansas State is better than both of those teams and the Wildcats will get a chance to prove it this weekend at Texas (-4.5).
Oklahoma faces a similarly difficult challenge on the road at No. 33 Oklahoma State (+6). The remaining first place team is No. 38 Iowa State who is preparing to host No. 30 Kansas (+1.5).
In SEC action, both division leaders have a chance to take a commanding lead as No. 7 Alabama hosts No. 11 LSU (+4) and No. 12 Georgia hosts No. 21 Missouri (+16.5). If Alabama were to stumble, No. 14 Mississippi's game versus No. 17 Texas A&M (+4) could have bearing on the SEC West race.
The computers both project that Alabama will cover, and that Missouri will keep the game with the Bulldogs closer than expected.
My power rankings have been telling me for weeks that Georgia is not as good as their national ranking would indicate. My calculations suggest that the Bulldogs have faced the easiest schedule in the Power Five to date. The next three games against Missouri, No. 14 Mississippi and No. 18 Tennessee will tell us if my computer is correct or not.
No. 13 Washington hopes to maintain sole possession of first place in the Pac-12 this week, but they will need to beat No. 25 USC (-3) in Los Angeles to do it. My computer is optimistic that the Huskies will cover while the FPI is picking the Trojans in an upset.
No. 6 Oregon and No. 15 Oregon State look to keep pace with Washington but are expected to meet less resistance against No. 56 California (+23) and No. 60 Colorado (+12), respectively.
In ACC action, No. 10 Florida State can lock up a spot in the ACC Championship game with a win at No. 87 Pittsburgh (+21.5). As for the team the Seminole are most likely to face in that title game, the winner of No. 65 Virginia Tech at No. 16 Louisville (-11) will have sole possession of second place.
That said No. 27 Miami has both Florida State and Louisville on the schedule in the coming weeks and could play themselves into the Championship Game. The Hurricane will need to get past this week's road game at North Carolina State (+3.5) to stay within striking difference.
Table 3 below summarizes the notable Group of Five action in Week 10.
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Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week 10 including my algorithms' projected scores.
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The three teams with the best odds to claim the Group of Five New Year's Six Bowl spot (No. 24 Air Force, No. 49 Liberty, and No. 39 Tulane) are all double digit favorites this weekend. No. 62 Toledo beat Buffalo on Tuesday night 31-13, which was in line with the computers' predictions.
I currently project that Air Force has a 93% chance to make the Mountain West Championship Game, but the competition is still fierce for the second spot. Some of that will get sorted out this weekend as No. 52 Boise State visits No. 48 Fresno State (-4) in a battle of teams that are a game behind the Falcons in the Mountain West standings.
Troy is still a longshot to make the New Year's Six, but they can stay in the chase with a win over South Alabama (+6).
Note that based on Tuesday night's College Football Playoff rankings reveal, the Selection Committee currently has one-loss Tulane one spot ahead of undefeated Air Force. If both teams run the table, it will be interesting to see team would ultimately get the nod.
Tulane's only loss was at No. 14 Mississippi, but both Tulane (No. 116) and Air Force (No. 123) have similarly weak strengths of schedule. The best win on Air Force's resume (at No. 47 San Jose State) is comparable to Tulane's best win (at No. 50 Memphis). I would still give Air Force the benefit of the doubt for being undefeated.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 10.
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Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 10.
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Figures 1 and 2 together provide a total of nine upset picks for the week which are summarized below in Table 4.
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Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week 10.
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Eight of the nine upset picks on the board this week are Power Five matchups including Arkansas to beat Florida, Mississippi State to beat Kentucky, USC to beat Washington, and Arizona to take out UCLA.
A simulation of the week suggests that a total of 17.5 plus-or-minus 3.3 upsets are most likely to occur. This is by far the largest number predicted so far this year. It could be a wild weekend.
Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.
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Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week 10. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.
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The computers combined have a total of seven recommended bets. The notable action is for Houston (+4.5) to cover versus Baylor, Utah (-11.5) to cover versus Arizona State, Oklahoma (-6) to cover versus Oklahoma State, and my computer's sole pick this week: Notre Dame (-3) to cover against Clemson.
Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.
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Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 10. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.
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I will say this about my computer: it is not discouraged by its poor performance over the past several weeks. I have 14 games on the board this week, including 11 which meet the criteria as a "lock."
The notable picks here are for Notre Dame and Clemson to score over 46 points, Washington and USC to score under 76.5 points, and for Michigan State and Nebraska to combine for over 35 points.
That's all the advice that I have to give this week. Hopefully, there is more than a kernel of truth to these recommendations, or I may be forced to move to a different field. For now, let's play things by ear. Check back next week to see how the computers fared.
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