Michigan State football fans have been living with a bad taste in their mouths for weeks. At first it was the taste of disgust over the actions of a now-fired head coach. Then, it was taste of embarrassment as Washington blew the Spartans out and the Spartans fumbled away a chance to beat Maryland.
The taste then turned bitter as Michigan State let leads slip away at Iowa, Rutgers, and Minnesota. Somewhere in there, the Spartan fans threw up in their mouths a bit while watching the Wolverines run up and down the field in Spartan Stadium all night.
But on Saturday afternoon, Michigan State fans finally tasted something new or at least something that they had not tasted in some time. It was like finding that extra bag of Halloween candy that is still fresh, but which has passed the statute of limitations to necessitate sharing it with the children of the house. (Shhhhh!)
That taste, of course, was the sweet, sweet taste of victory. After seven straight weeks without a 'W,' the Spartans finally got it done with a 20-17 win over the Nebraska Corn Huskers.
I have felt for weeks that the Spartans would rise up, play a fairly clean game, and score a victory or two over a Big Ten opponent. My faith wavered, but the Green and White finally delivered. For the seniors who left Spartan Stadium in their final game of the building's 100th season, that taste of victory was as sweet as a buttered ear of corn on a warm August day.
The victory over Nebraska likely comes too late to substantially impact the Michigan State season on the whole. It may simply mean that the Spartans avoid the first double-digit loss season in program history. But tasting victory once again brings some much needed light to an otherwise dark season.
That's not nothing. As the season starts to draw to a close, Spartans fans can now start to see a light in the distance at the end of this dark tunnel. Names are starting to emerge as potential candidates to fill the current head coaching vacancy. Brighter and sweeter days are just around the corner.
Week 10 Betting Results
Now it is time to shine a light on the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
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| Figure 1: Results of Week 10 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
A total of 11 teams overachieved significantly by beating the opening spread by more than 14 points. Those teams include Tennessee, Oregon, Utah, Penn State, UNLV, West Virginia, and Kentucky. The single team which underachieved notable, yet still managed to win this weekend was Tulane.
A total of 21 teams experienced the sour taste of upset defeat. This is the most recorded upsets in a single week in 2023. This value is on the high end of the expected range based on last week's simulation, which did project more upsets than past weeks. Table 1 below summarizes the upsets compared to last week's picks.
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| Table 1: Upsets in Week 10 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week. |
The biggest upset of the week was Air Force's loss 20-point loss to Army (+19) which will have a major impact on the Group of Five's eventual berth in the New Year's Six Bowls. Other notable upsets include Stanford over Washington State (-13), Indiana over Wisconsin (-9.5), Oklahoma State over Oklahoma (-6), Clemson over Notre Dame (-3), and Kansas over Iowa State (-1.5).
My algorithm's upset picks went a sweet 5-1 (83%) to bring the year-to-date record to an impressive 26-27 (49%). The FPI also had a respectful outing at 2-3 (40%) bringing the overall record to 15-27 (36%).
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week 10. |
My computer only had one pick this week (Notre Dame to cover versus Clemson), which turned out to the wrong. As a result, my computer drifted back into dark territory for the year at 18-19 (49%). My analysis of the FPI data had a much brighter result. Those picks went an impressive 5-1 (83%), but the year-to-date record sits at just 34-40 (46%).
For the full week of games, both computers were a bland 31-31 (50%). Year-to-date my algorithm has a slight five-game lead on the FPI with a record of 271-275 (49.6%) compared to 266-280 (48.7%).
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Nine.
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| Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week 10. |
The point total bets continue to have a bad aftertaste despite being much sweeter at the frontend of the season. My computer's "lock" picks went 5-6 (46%) while the full collection of recommended picks were 7-7 (50%). Year-to-date the locks are sitting 25-30 (46%) while the overall recommended picks are at 83-91 (48%). Yuck.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week 10, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the college football playoffs poll released this week.
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| Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 10 |
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| Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 10. |
The race in the Big Ten East remains largely unchanged in Week 10. No. 1 Michigan* retains the top spot in my power rankings, yet failed to cover against No. 78 Purdue. No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Penn State both eventually covered on the road. Ohio State (45%) edged ahead of Michigan (40%) in my calculated odds to win the Big Ten East while Penn State (14%) remains within striking distance.
My computer still has Michigan* favored on a neutral field with the Buckeyes, but the fact that the Wolverines still have to play both Penn State and Ohio State tilts the odds against them for now.
In the Big Ten West, chaos reigned as No. 47 Wisconsin, No. 51 Nebraska, and No. 61 Minnesota all lost in upset fashion to No. 79 Indiana, No. 88 Michigan State, and No. 75 Illinois, respectively.
Meanwhile, No. 41 Iowa beat No. 83 Northwestern by a score of 10-7 and find themselves alone in first place in the West with a 61% chance to advance to Indianapolis. Nebraska (20%) now grades out with the second best odds to win the division with Wisconsin (10%) and Minnesota (8%) still with dreams to play for a Big Ten title.
Perhaps the more interesting Big Ten West related subplot actually has to do with the Big Ten East tiebreaker. In the event of a three-way tie between Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State (which now has a 21% chance of happening) the Big Ten Championship Game participant will be decided based on the cumulative records of the cross-over Big Ten West opponents of the three tied teams.
Illinois' win over Minnesota seems to have shifted the balance of the tiebreaker in Penn State's favor. In the event of a three-way tie, I have Penn State advancing to Indianapolis in 61% of the simulation cycles. Michigan* (21%) and Ohio State (18%) roughly share the remaining probability.
Remaining Schedule for Michigan State
This week's upset win over Huskers provided a ray of sunshine to Spartan fans, but the prospects for the rest of Michigan State's season changed very little. Michigan State rose to just No. 88 in my updated power rankings and the expected win total is up to just 3.44 win.
Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for Michigan State's remaining three games.
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| Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week 10 and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference. |
The Spartans remain a huge underdog to Ohio State and Penn State and the odds that the Spartans can win in Bloomington actually slipped slightly. Michigan State had a good week, but Indiana's win over Wisconsin was even better. As a result, I still project the Spartans will be a slight underdog at Indiana (-4) in two weeks.
But since we did all experience a palette-cleansing win this weekend, let's don the optimism cap one more time. Much like this week's game against Nebraska, the contest at Indiana in two weeks is very winnable. That would give Michigan State four wins.
If the Spartans can somehow pick off either Ohio State or Penn State, a possible bowl berth with a 5-7 record is back on the table. Following Week 10, the Spartans qualify for a bowl game with a 5-7 record in just under half of the simulations where that final record occurs. The overall odds for a bowl berth stand at 1.3% which is double the odds I saw last week at this time.
While that is still extremely low, it is also true that both Penn State and Ohio State have looked potentially vulnerable at times over the past few weeks. The Buckeyes trailed Rutgers at the half week and two weeks ago and Penn State was tied with Indiana late in the fourth quarter at home two weeks ago.
Beating one of those teams is still a long shot and would require a significant amount of luck. But the dream is not quite dead yet. Don't turn the lights off just yet.
National Overview
In the final segment today, let's review my updated College Football Playoff Leaderboard as shown in Table 6 and review all the key results of Week 10.
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| Table 6: College Football Playoffs leaderboard following the results of Week 10. The table includes each contender's odds to win their conference, make the playoffs, and win the national title. The table also gives each team's current power ranking, strength of record (SOR), and strength of schedule (SoS). |
My computer agrees with the opening college football playoff ranking by placing Ohio State in the top spot with the best odds to finish in the top four at just under 60%. Michigan (52%) has the third best current odds to reach the playoff and Penn State (24%) checks in a No. 9 on the list. That all said, I estimate the odds that multiple Big Ten teams will make the playoffs as just 35%.
No. 8 Florida State (55%) owns the second best odds to reach the playoffs. The Seminoles wrapped up a berth in the ACC Championship game this week with a win over No. 87 Pittsburgh. Florida State will almost certainly face No. 12 Louisville (95% odds) as the Cardinals knocked off No. 67 Virginia Tech to claim sole possession of second place with two conference games remaining.
Interestingly, No. 6 Oregon (48%) rose to the No. 4 position in my playoff leaderboard after crushing the California Golden Bears. The Ducks are notably ahead of No. 14 Washington (27%) despite the fact that Oregon lost to the Huskies head-to-head and undefeated Washington scored a solid win over USC this weekend.
My computer currently gives both Washington (92%) and Oregon (78%) very good odds to reach the Pac 12 Championship game. No other team has odds over 10%. My computer give Oregon better odds to win the rematch with Washington on a neutral field.
No. 5 Texas (42% playoff odds) are currently sitting in fifth place on the leaderboard following an overtime win against No. 4 Kansas State. My calculations give the Longhorns an 82% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship and a 60% chance to win the conference. I project that Texas will be a double-digit favorite in all three of their remaining regular season conference games
The other big result on the Plains this weekend was No. 30 Oklahoma State's upset win over No. 9 Oklahoma. The Cowboys moved into a first place tie with Texas in the conference standings and have a 70% chance to reach the conference championship game. The only other teams with over a 10% chance to reach the conference title game are No. 9 Oklahoma (22%) and No. 4 Kansas State (19%).
For now, No. 7 Alabama (35%) and No. 13 Georgia (27%) are sitting outside of the top four in my playoff leaderboard. That said, my simulation also suggests that there is a 66% chance that at least one SEC team makes the playoffs. That feels low.
Either way Alabama virtually locked up the SEC West (97% odds) with a big win over No. 11 LSU this week. Georgia is still the heavy favorite (88%) to win the East, but Tennessee (12%) still has a chance if the Volunteers can run the table and get some help from Ole Miss next week when the Rebels visit Georgia. My computer currently projects that Alabama would be favored over Georgia in the SEC Championship game by five points.
Note that only 10 total teams have greater than a 6% chance to reach the playoffs at this point in the season.
The updated Group of Five leaderboard is shown below in Table 7.
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| Table 7: Week 10 Leaderboard for the Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six. |
The Air Force Academy has been sitting up the top of my Group of Five leaderboard since Week Six, but this week's loss to Army has dropped the Falcons into sixth place (7%). This elevates undefeated No. 50 Liberty (50%) into first place with one-loss No. 59 Toledo (12%), No. 42 Tulane (11%), and No. 46 Fresno State (9%) all still in the running.
The first college football playoff rankings suggest that No. 42 Tulane is sitting in the pole position for the New Year's Six berth, but my computer gives No. 28 Southern Methodist better odds (41%) to win the American Athletic Conference than the Green Wave (36%). My computer also has Liberty with a better strength of resume.
The fact is that none of the current Group of Five candidates have a notable non-conference win on their resume. Tulane has a win over No. 53 South Alabama and Toledo has a win over No. 49 San Jose State. Fresno State beat No. 78 Purdue and has a few medium-quality conference wins over No. 58 Boise State (this week) and No. 66 UNLV (last week). Liberty's best win was a conference win over No. 69 Western Kentucky.
Regardless, one of those four teams is likely headed to the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowl this year.
Against all odds, I have reached the end for today. Check back in later in the week for yet another installment of bad betting advice and more analysis of what to expect for the rest of Michigan State's season and beyond.
Other Figures
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