2023 Week 11 Preview: We Are

We are all living in a magical time to be a college football fan in the state of Michigan. The results on the gridiron for the Michigan State Spartans have been underwhelming. But, from the point of view of pure entertainment, it has been a wild and entertaining ride. College football is the best soap opera on the radio, television, or any platform right now.

This season has had so many twists and turns. We have seen sex scandals, gaslighting, cheating scandals, lies, board room squabbles, more gaslighting, information leaks, kindergarten-level tattling conspiracy theories, and the list goes on and on. We have seen the horizon go vertical more than once over the past 10 weeks. I don't know where we are anymore... or how... or why... or if. I just don't have an answer.

As for Michigan State, by the time Saturday rolls around, it will have been seven days since the Spartans enjoyed their first win of the Big Ten season. Based on the opponent this week, it is very unlikely that the Spartans will return to East Lansing with a win.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have shown signs of weakness this year. They appear more mortal than they have in years. It is not a stretch to say that Michigan State had a much better first half against Rutgers than did the Buckeyes. If you are looking for signs of hope, look no farther than that. 

Is there a chance that Michigan State parties like it was 1998 and upsets the No. 1 Buckeyes in Columbus? Of course there is. There is also a chance that next week Nick Saban will announce that he is leaving Alabama and returning to East Lansing to coach the Spartans until they carry his lifeless body out of the Skandalaris Football Center.

The most likely result is that the Spartans will pick up their seventh loss of the season this year and the focus will turn fully on finding the next head football coach in East Lansing. Some will argue that the leadership at Michigan State never seem to get something like a high-level coaching search done the right way. I happen to believe that there is time (and a process in place) to get a good one.

Michigan State still has the history, infrastructure, and resources to be a contender every year, even in the new and expanded Big Ten. The next staff might just be sleeping on a time bomb that is ready to go off. Spartan fans have been patiently waiting for the light to come. As I have said before, brighter days are on the horizon.

MSU Prediction

The Michigan State Spartans and the Ohio State Buckeyes have met a total of 51 times going back to the first meeting in 1912. The Buckeyes lead the series, 36-15. Michigan State won five of the first seven meetings, but the Spartans have only 10 wins since 1967.

Under Mark Dantonio, Michigan State won three games in the series in 2011, 2013, and 2015. But the Spartans have lost seven straight against the Buckeyes, with the smallest margin of victory in the last six games being 20 points in 2018.

This streak of blowouts also means that Michigan State has struggled against the spread versus Ohio State. Since 2003, the Spartans are just 5-13 and have not covered since losing by a single point in 2016.

As for this year, Michigan State will arrive in Columbus at a 31-point underdog. That is the biggest spread on record, back to at least 1997. Notably, this spread surpasses the previous record of 27.5 points in Columbus in 1998. Older Michigan State fans will remember what happened in that game.

The odds that the Spartans will enjoy a similarly shocking upset are just 1.5%. Since 2001, I count only seven total upsets when the spread opened at 31 points or higher. The most recent and notable example was in 2021 when Bowling Green (+31) upset Minnesota.

In summary, the odds of a Michigan State win are very small. It would roughly equivalent to a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately, the Spartans are not going to be facing a Purdue basketball team with a bunch of underclassmen guards.

While there is a chance that the Spartans can hang around for a little while in Columbus, it is more likely that the afterglow of last week's win over the Corn Huskers does not last long. My computer's official prediction is a final score of Ohio State 39 and Michigan State 5, but that it too weird so let's go with Ohio State 42, Michigan State 6.

Big Ten Overview

Let's now move to a review of the upcoming action in the Big Ten in Week 11 where all 14 teams are in action this week. Table 1 below includes my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials for all seven games. 

Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not the newly revealed College Football Playoff rankings.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 11, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Beyond the game in Columbus on Saturday night, the six remaining Big Ten conference games could provide some very interesting drama. 

Four teams in the Big Ten West have respectable odds at a division championship and all four teams will be challenged. No. 47 Wisconsin (-11.5) is expected to have the easiest weekend as the Badgers play host to No. 83 Northwestern. The remaining five games all have spreads less than a touchdown.

No. 41 Iowa (-2.5) hosts No. 38 Rutgers and the Hawkeyes will likely need a win to hold onto their one-game lead in the division. If Rutgers wins, it could open the door for Wisconsin, No. 61 Minnesota (who hold a head-to-head tiebreaker with Iowa) or No. 51 Nebraska (who will face Iowa in the final weekend of the season).  

The Golden Gophers travel to Purdue (-1) while the Corn Huskers host Maryland (-1). Both games are predicted to be very close, but my computer likes Minnesota in the mild upset. No. 75 Illinois (-6.5) also hosts No. 79 Indiana and the loser is most likely out of contention for a bowl.

But the most important game this week and perhaps the most interesting game of the year so far is No. 1 Michigan (-4.5) at No. 3 Penn State.

Putting aside the current scandal in Ann Arbor for a moment, the outcome of this game will have a huge impact on the Big Ten East (and therefore the Big Ten conference) race. Based on the spread, Penn State has a 37% chance to pull the upset. ESPN's FPI algorithm (which has never heard of Tony Petitti) is picking the Lions in an upset.

If Michigan wins, the division title will be very likely be decided in a winner-take-all showdown between Michigan and Ohio State on Thanksgiving weekend. If Penn State wins, the possibility of a three-way tie in the East comes into play. As it stands today, Penn State would be in the driver's seat in that tiebreaker.

Either way, all eyes will be on the Wolverines, who will be facing the first team all year ranked in my current top 35. Michigan has looked dominant so far this year, but how much of that had to do with the schedule and how much of it had to do with their... creative scouting techniques?

If Michigan can dominate the Nittany Lions without a certain "junior analyst" on the sidelines, the chest thumping in Ann Arbor will be loud enough to hear in East Lansing if not in Columbus.  

If Penn State wins, or even wins convincingly, the narrative will turn even more ugly for the Wolverines. Any argument that that their "creative scouting" did not create a significant advantage will have even less credibility than it does today. With one loss and without a berth in the Big Ten Championship game, Michigan would almost certainly fall out of the college football playoff race. 

The stakes in Happy Valley are as high as any Penn State/Michigan game in recent memory. It is natural to wonder if the Big Ten brass are secretly rooting for the Nittany Lions to solve some of their problems for them. Based on the antics out of Ann Arbor is the past week alone, it is hard to believe that any Big Ten program wants to see the Wolverines win this Saturday.

This weekend, we are all Penn State.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week 11.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week 11 including my algorithms' projected scores.

Outside of Happy Valley there are several other very compelling games that will help bring additional clarity to several conference races and the eventual college football postseason.

No. 7 Alabama can officially lock up the SEC West with a win at No. 35 Kentucky (+10.5). Even if the Crimson Tide were to lose, No. 15 Mississippi will need to upset No. 13 Georgia (-11) in Athens or Alabama will still claim the West crown. 

An upset by the Rebels will also be required to prevent the Bulldogs from officially clinching the East. Georgia will also automatically win the East is No. 17 Tennessee is unable to get a road win at No. 21 Missouri (+2.5). My computer is picking the Tigers in a mild upset.

Out west, undefeated and No. 14 Washington and one-loss No. 5 Oregon are on a collision course for a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship game. Both teams will face tough challenges at home this week as the Huskies host No. 23 Utah (+8.5) and the Ducks host No. 27 USC (+15.5). An upset in either game will give the winner new life in the conference race. As upset would also help No. 18 Oregon State which is projected to have an easier time hosting No. 89 Stanford (+21).

In Big 12 action, No. 5 Texas and No. 30 Oklahoma State have a one game lead over the field with five teams just one game back. Both teams face tricky road challenges as the Longhorns visit No. 33 TCU (+10) and the Cowboys travel to UCF (+2.5). The FPI likes the Knights in an upset.

If such as upset were to happen, No. 9 Oklahoma and No. 4 Kansas State are the most likely teams to benefit. The Sooners host No. 24 West Virgina (+12) while the Wildcats host No. 94 Baylor (+20.5).

In the ACC, No. 8 Florida State has already secured a spot in the conference title game, but the Seminoles will need to keep winning if they want to stay in the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings. They should be safe this week with a home game against Miami (+14.5). 

No. 12 Louisville can inch closer to securing the other spot in the ACC Championship game with a win over No. 72 Virginia (+20.5). The only team with better than a 1% chance to slip into the top two is No. 26 North Carolina, who face their bitter rivals No. 22 Duke (+11).

Table 3 below summarizes the notable Group of Five action in Week 11.

Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week 11 including my algorithms' projected scores.

Following the head-scratching loss last week by No. 52 Air Force to No. 9 Army, No. 42 Tulane is the only Group of Five team ranked in the current college football playoff poll. The Green Wave should be safe this week hosting Tulsa (+23) and if they win out they will certainly claim the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six.

That said, my computer gives Tulane only a 36% chance to win the American Athletic Conference. My algorithm still has No. 50 Liberty with the best odds to claim the top Group of Five spot and the Flames are also a double digit favorite this week versus Old Dominion (+13.5). 

If those two teams falter, No. 59 Toledo (who beat Eastern Michigan earlier this week), No. 46 Fresno State, and even No. 16 Troy would become candidates if any of them can win out. Of that trio, Fresno State faces the toughest challenge this week at San Jose State (+2.5). My algorithm picks the Spartans in an upset.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 11.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 11.

Combined the computers are projecting a total of 10 upsets which are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week 11.

The computers are feeling a little frisky this week with picks including Penn State, Missouri, UCF, and Minnesota all winning.

For reference, my simulation of the Week 11 action predicts that a total of 16.1 plus-or-minus 3.3 upsets are most likely. This is the second highest prediction of the year so far, about a game-and-a-half below last week's projection.

Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week 11. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

There are only seven picks on the board for Week 11, the most notable of which are for Kansas State (-20.5), Duke (+11), and Oklahoma (-12) all covering.

Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.

Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 11. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence

Maybe this will be the week when my over/under predictions finally get straightened out. On a bright note, Bowling Green and Kent State did hit the over earlier this week. As for the other picks, my computer is optimistic about the scoring in several Big Ten games including Indiana at Illinois (over 42.5), Rutgers at Iowa (over 28.5), and Michigan at Penn State (over 43.5).

With that, I can say with confidence that we are at the end for this week. That is all the advice that I have to give. Check back early next week to see how the picks above faired. Enjoy the games.