So far, college football fans have enjoyed 11 full weeks of college football. It has been a season of ups and downs and twists and turns. Some teams have exceeded expectations and some teams have underachieved. Unfortunately for Michigan State fans, the Spartans fall squarely into the second category.
The Spartans entered this weekend's game against Ohio State as more than a 30-point underdog. The results on the field came as no real surprise. While there were a few bright spots in the run game and on defense, neither unit was able to string together enough good plays in a row to seriously threaten the Buckeyes.
The final score of 38-3 was predictable and expected, and the truth is that the game was inevitably inconsequential. The Spartans fell to 3-7, but the season is not yet over. As we will see later, there is a reasonable chance that the Spartans can still find their way to a bowl game IF they can win out.
After what Spartan fans have endured so far this year, the idea of winning out may sound absurd. Perhaps it is. But Michigan State has a winnable game next week at Bloomington and if nothing else they will have a chance in the final weekend to ruin Penn State's Thanksgiving plans in an NFL stadium.
It is not the season that Spartan fans had hoped for back in the summer, but the thought that there may only be two games left this year where the Green and White take the field is a bit sad. The season is almost over, and the truth is most of us will miss it.
Week 11 Betting Results
While the Spartans' season is clearly winding down, there is still a lot of college football analysis to conduct and to discuss. It's time to check and see how much truth there was to last week's bad betting advice, starting with the summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
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| Figure 1: Results of Week 11 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
This week a total of 14 teams overachieved notably by beating the opening spread by more than 14 points. Those teams include Oregon State, Texas A&M, Georgia, Oklahoma, Alabama, Iowa State, Iowa, and Purdue.
The only team which underachieved by 14 points, yet still won, is Tulane. This is the second week in a row that the Green Wave are the sole team in this category.
A total of 20 teams underachieved so much that they earned a spot on the upset list for the week. This is the second-most upsets observed all season and over one standard deviation more than projected earlier in the week. Table 1 below summarizes the upsets compared to last week's picks.
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The biggest upset of the week was Air Force's loss at Hawaii (+18). Other notable upsets include Arizona State over UCLA (-17), Northwestern over Wisconsin (-11.5), Missouri over Tennessee (-2.5), and UCF over Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Truth be told, both computers had an outstanding week. My algorithm went 5-1 (83%) for the second straight week, bringing the year-to-date performance up to 31-28 (53%). ESPN's FPI went a 5-2 (71%) for the week which elevated its year-to-date record to 20-29 (41%).
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week 11. |
Both computers were also dropping truth bombs this week in the picks against the spread. My computer went 2-1 (67%) while the FPI was a perfect 6-0. Coincidentally, both computers are now dead even year-to-date (20-20 and 40-40) for the recommended bets.
For the full slate of games in Week 11, my computer was also even at 32-32 (50%). The FPI was quite a bit better at 38-26 (59.4%). Year-to-date, the FPI has now edged ahead of my computer by a single game (304-306 compared to 303-307) leaving both machines just a hair under .500.
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 11.
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| Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week 11. |
In a continuing trend, my recommended point total bets continue to lag. This week the "lock" picks went just 2-3 (40%) which brings the year-to-date total to 27-33 (45%). The broader set of recommended bets did a little better at 5-4 (56%) but the year-to-date record remains under .500 at 88-95 (48%).
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week 11, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the college football playoffs rankings.
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| Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 11. |
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| Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 11 |
The results of the seven Big Ten conference games were incredibly consequential in the grand scheme of the Big Ten race. First, No. 1 Michigan was able to hold off No. 3 Penn State in Happy Valley. As a result, the Big Ten East crown will come down the final weekend when No. 2 Ohio State visits Ann Arbor for a winner-takes-all show down with a potential playoff bid on the line.
My computer is projecting that the Wolverines will be a six-point favorite over the Buckeye in two weeks which translates to a 65% chance that Michigan will win the Big Ten East for the third consecutive year, assuming the Wolverines are not disqualified.
In the Big Ten West, no lie, No. 26 Iowa had about as perfect a weekend as they could have imagined. Not only did Iowa shut out No. 54 Rutgers, but every other potential division challenger lost this weekend. No. 53 Nebraska lost to No. 37 Maryland. No. 65 Wisconsin was upset by No. 71 Northwestern, and No. 81 Minnesota lost to No. 70 Purdue.
The Hawkeyes find themselves with a two-game lead in the division with just two games to go, which gives them a 93% chance to win the Division. Five of the remaining six Big Ten West teams are tied for second place with a 3-4 conference record and a 5-5 record overall.
Based on the current Big Ten standing and the data summarized above, the Big Ten Championship will likely feature the winner of the Michigan/Ohio State game versus Iowa. In a normal year, I would be very confident in this statement. However, this is far from a normal year and there is one more uncertainty that must now be addressed.
Consequences for the Wolverines?
Unless one has been living under a rock for the past few weeks, any college football fan is aware of the ongoing drama surrounding the University of Michigan and allegations of sign stealing. Week 11 saw several notable milestones in this story, including an official note of disciplinary action against the University of Michigan from the Big Ten conference
The note itself is a 13-page epic poem and treasure trove of eyebrow raising quotes signed by Harvard Law graduate and Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti. Based on Petitti's resume, it is safe to assume that Michigan was a second-tier safety school for him. Based on the tone of the letter, Petitti may have recently run across some of those "Harvard, the Michigan of the West" t-shirts on e-Bay.
As for the note's contents, here are my take-home messages:
- The Big Ten and NCAA agree that there is "uncontroverted" evidence that the University of Michigan deployed an illegal scheme of sign stealing.
- This "unprecedented" scheme has stretched over the 2021, 2022, and 2023 season and was effective in unfairly impacting games.
- The cheating conduct is so severe that the Big Ten was obligated to act as soon as possible and not wait for the outcome of the detailed NCAA investigation, as is their right.
- Michigan does not dispute that they broke the rules. Instead, their easily refuted initial response was designed to deflect attention to other schools and "delay accountability."
- More punishments are likely coming from the Big Ten, the NCAA, or both.
With this information in mind, the biggest question is how either the Big Ten or the NCAA can allow Michigan to participate in the postseason when they have stated that the Wolverines cheated in multiple games earlier in the 2023 season?
The information in the note is damning. The truth is now out there, and these actions must have consequences. One could argue that this is the largest scandal in the history of college football. It seems even worse that the pay-for-play scandal at Southern Methodist in the late 1980s that led to the program being shut down for two years.
While the substance of the cheating scandal is very bad, the way that the University of Michigan has responded to this scandal has been even worse. The initial response to the Big Ten was laughable, but the University continues to double-down on their own increasing stupidity. The Wolverines seem to be physically incapable of accepting responsibility.
The idea of trying to sue the Big Ten to overturn or block the clearly symbolic three-game suspension is akin to a toddler trying to call grandma when mom puts them into time out. Letters from Michigan lawmakers, public statements from Michigan's President, and threats from the reagents to leave the Big Ten are flat out embarrassing.
Yes, Michigan, please feel free to leave the Big Ten for the SEC. Be our guest. You will not be missed. Also, if you think that you haven't gotten a fair shake in the Big Ten and that your new home in the south will be more equitable, you might want to review some of those quotes from Coach Harbaugh in 2019 about how it's "hard to beat the cheaters" in the SEC. I am sure that they have forgotten all about that.
It is hard to predict exactly how this situation plays out, but it is unlikely to end well for the Maize and Blue. Tony Petitti is playing chess. Michigan believes that they are playing three-dimensional chess, but for some reason they have a flat board with only red and black discs. No worries. They will figure it out eventually.
Remaining Schedule for Michigan State
Returning now to the Michigan State Spartans, the loss to Ohio State did not significantly impact the Spartans' prospects for the rest of the year. The expected win total remains at 3.43 games. As mentioned above, Michigan State can still theoretically qualify for a bowl game if the Spartans win out and if there are not enough 6-6 teams to fill all 82 bowl spots.
My current analysis gives the Spartans only a 1.8% chance to go undefeated. That's the bad news. The good news is that IF Michigan State can find a way to win both of those games, there is currently a 39% chance that the Spartans will make the cut as a 5-7 team to qualify for a bowl.
I currently count 64 teams who are already ahead of Michigan State on the bowl selection list no matter what happens for the rest of the year. There are then 18 additional teams with over a 50% chance to either finish at 6-6 or would get a bid ahead of Michigan State if they were to finish at 5-7 (such as Rice and Mississippi State, both of which have better academic progress scores).
There are an additional 19 teams with less than a 50% chance to earn a bowl over Michigan State. The current expected value of teams that would quality ahead of the Spartans is 81.6 with 82 slots available.
Just to keep things interesting this weekend, it would be in Michigan State's best interest for Nebraska, Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Illinoi, Florida, and South Carolina to keep losing.
Figure 2 below shows the updated odds and projected point spreads for Michigan State's remaining three games.
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| Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week 11 and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week, and the preseason odds are shown as a reference. |
Very little has changed since last week. The opening line for this weekend's game at Indiana opened at +4.5 for the Spartans, which is in line with my computer's prediction for the last several weeks. If Michigan State can score an upset win, the final weekend will still hold some intrigue.
The projected line for the Thanksgiving weekend date with Penn State is +25.5. Penn State's offense looked less than impressive against Michigan this weekend. The Spartans have likely already faced three teams who are better than the Nittany Lions.
National Overview
In the final segment today, let's review my updated College Football Playoff Leaderboard as shown in Table 6 and review all the key results of Week 11. There were several games of significant consequence for various division and conference races, as well as for the playoffs and the New Year's Six.
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| Table 6: College Football Playoffs leaderboard following the results of Week 10. The table includes each contender's odds to win their conference, make the playoffs, and win the national title. The table also gives each team's current power ranking, strength of record (SOR), and strength of schedule (SoS). |
In the SEC, No. 9 Georgia and No. 7 Alabama secured both the SEC East and West titles with wins over No. 18 Mississippi and No. 40 Kentucky, respectively. The teams will meet in the SEC title game in three weeks where the winner (and possibly also the loser) will almost certainly advance to the playoffs, despite my computer currently placing both teams outside of the top four.
Outside of the eventual Big Ten champion, No. 10 Florida State has the best odds to make the playoffs at 58%. The Seminoles beat rival Miami this week and will most likely face No. 14 Louisville in the ACC Championship game. My computer projects that Florida State would only be a 3.5-point favorite versus the Cardinals.
If Florida State runs the table at 13-0 with an ACC Championship on the resume, I see no way that they are left out of the playoffs. An upset win by Louisville could vault the Cardinals in the playoffs, but a much more likely destination is the Orange Bowl either way.
The most plausible current scenario is that the four-team playoff will consist of Michigan/Ohio State, Alabama/Georgia, and Florida State. The fourth team will most likely be either the Pac-12 or Big 12 Champion, with the Pac-12 currently holding the edge.
No. 12 Washington remained undefeated and clinched a spot in the Pac-12 Championship game with a win this weekend over No. 21 Utah. No. 5 Oregon continues to have the best odds (82%) to join the Huskies thanks to this week's win over No. 24 USC. The only teams who could potentially pass the Ducks are No. 22 Arizona (10% odds) and No. 17 Oregon State (8%) who both won this weekend.
Despite Washington's regular season win at home against the Ducks, my computer projects that Oregon would be an 8-point favorite on a neutral field against the Huskies in a potential Pac-12 Championship game rematch. This explains the Ducks' higher playoff odds (49% versus 32%). Similar to the ACC, an undefeated Washington team would certainly make the playoffs, but a one-loss Oregon team would be squarely on the bubble.
The power five race with the most uncertainty is the Big 12, where no team has yet clinched a berth in the Championship Game yet and four teams still have at least a 20% chance to play for the title.
No. 6 Texas (87%) beat No. 35 TCU this week to retain the best odds to finish in the top two of the conference. No. 8 Oklahoma (39%) and No. 4 Kansas State (20%) also scored wins over No. 30 West Virginia and No. 85 Baylor, respectively to stay in the race.
Interestingly, my computer still gives No. 41 Oklahoma State (49%) the second-best odds to reach the conference title game even though the Cowboys got boat-raced this weekend by No. 27 UCF. Either way, Texas is the only Big 12 team with a shot at the playoffs.
The updated Group of Five leaderboard is shown below in Table 7.
The most notable result in Group of Five action this week was the Mountain West collectively playing themselves out of contention for the New Year's Six Bowl berth. No. 49 Fresno State was blown out at No. 43 San Jose State and No. 62 Air Force took another bad loss at No. 113 Hawaii.
No. 48 Tulane once again squeaked out a win against a questionable opponent (No. 114 Tulsa) which gives my computer doubt that the Green Wave will win the America Athletic Conference.
Meanwhile, No. 44 Liberty (70%) and No. 57 Toledo (9%) keep winning and remain at the top of my Group of Five leaderboard. The other team to watch is No. 19 Troy (7%). If the Trojans can win the Sun Belt (which I give an 80% chance) they could find themselves in the New Year's Six even with two losses.
Against all odds, we have reached the end for today. The truth is that I will be provided yet another installment of Bad Betting Advice later this week and more analysis of the final two weeks of the regular season. Stay tuned.
Other Figures
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