Well, you can tell by the way I use this space that I'm a college football fan and it's time to talk.
As for the Michigan State Spartans, the season is starting to feel like the staff is moving the sweeping the flooring, cleaning up the merchandise, turning off the music, and turning off the lights.
There are still two games remaining at Indiana this weekend and versus Penn State at Ford Field in Detroit in two weeks. While it seems as though this season has gone nowhere, the Spartans are still alive in the race for the postseason (assuming the athletic department would accept a bowl bid with a 5-7 record... which I am not 100% sure that they would given the current uncertainty in the coaching situation).
Yes, the Spartans have been kicked around since this season was born. Now, it's alright and it's okay if Spartans fans prefer to look the other way for the last two weeks of the season. As for me, I plan to keep following the Spartans to the bitter end and to continue to use a little bit of #math to help me to understand how the rest of the season might play out.
So, whether you're a brother or whether you're a mother, the show must go on. Let's keep dancing until the music stops.
Michigan State Prediction
The Spartans have faced the Indiana Hoosiers 69 times since the series began in 1922. Michigan State has played more games against Indiana than any other team not nicknamed the Wolverines. The Spartans have also beaten the Hoosiers more times than other team. Michigan State leads the current series 49-18-2.
Despite the overall dominance in the series, the Hoosiers have won two of the past three games and they opened as a 5-point favorite this week against the Green and White. This is only the second time since 2002 that Indiana has been favored against the Spartans.
Fortunately, Michigan State historically plays well against Indiana. The Spartans are 16-7 against the spread versus the Hoosiers, but I should also note that Michigan State is just 1-3 ATS in the past four games.
As for this year's contest, this is certainly a game that Michigan State can win. Both my computer and ESPN's Football Power Index predict the Spartans will cover, but neither are predicting a Michigan State victory.
Indiana has played well over the past few weeks and will be honoring their seniors in the last home game of the season. I expect a close game where a late score from the hometown Hoosiers ices the gme. My official prediction is Indiana 26, Michigan State 22.
Big Ten Overview
Now let's groove on over and try to understand the rest of the action in the Big Ten in Week 12. Table 1 below includes my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials for all seven games.
Note that all rankings referenced below for each team are my computer's power rankings and not the College Football Playoff rankings.
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Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 12, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.
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After last weekend's results, the winner of the Big Ten East win be decided in two weeks when No. 2 Ohio State visits No. 1 Michigan. This situation is basically one of those weird fads from the 1970s that comes back around every once in a while that most Big Ten fans would rather forget about.
Ohio State (-28.5) is expected to crush No. 61 Minnesota, while Michigan (-21) is also favored to win big on the road at No. 37 Maryland. The biggest drama is whether Jim Harbaugh will get to watch the game from the sidelines or from the Holiday Inn Express in College Park. That said, an upset loss in either game would certainly throw a wrench into the College Football Playoff rankings.
The only other Big Ten East game features No. 54 Rutgers at No. 3 Penn State (-19). The Nittany Lions are still a candidate for a New Year's Six Bowl while the Scarlet Knights are hoping to move up in the Big Ten bowl hierarchy.
In the Big Ten West, No. 26 Iowa can lock up a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis with a win this weekend against No. 80 Illinois (+4). The computers both have the home Hawkeyes winning, but an upset loss would be so on-brand for the division that it seems almost inevitable.
The other two games feature Big Ten West teams trying to stay alive in the division race while simultaneously vying for bowl game position. No. 53 Nebraska visits No. 65 Wisconsin (-4.5) and No. 70 Purdue visits No. 71 Northwestern (-1.5).
For Michigan State fans who are still holding out hope for a bowl game, you will want to root against both Illinois and Nebraska. Of the five Big Ten West teams sitting at a record of 5-5, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Northwestern sit above the Spartans on the 2023 Academic Progress Rate (APR) Rankings which means that they are already assured to receive a bowl bid before Michigan State even if they lose out.
In contrast, Illinois and Nebraska are below Michigan State on that list and therefore could potentially steal a bowl bid if either team wins six games. It would help the Spartans odds if both the Illini and the Corn Huskers were to lose out.
Other Noteworthy National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week 12.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week 12 including my algorithms' projected scores. |
The SEC championship game is already fixed, but both finalists are still polishing their resumes in hopes that both teams can finish in the top four of the final playoff poll. No. 7 Alabama will be enjoying their annual mid-November cupcake break which this year takes the form of FCS opponent Chattanooga. In contrast, No. 9 Georgia (-10) faces a much stiffer test at No. 20 Tennessee.
In ACC action, No. 10 Florida State is following the example of the Crimson Tide as the Seminoles face North Alabama from the FCS. If No. 14 Louisville wins at Miami (+1) this week, the Cardinals will face Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.
If Louisville loses, as the FPI forecasts, the door opens for No. 25 North Carolina to potential sneak back into the title game if the Tar Heels can win out including this week's game at Clemson (-7). My computer likes North Carolina in the upset here. It is also mathematically possible but very unlikely for No. 64 Virginia Tech to reach the ACC Championship game.
In the Pac-12, No. 12 Washington have virtually clinched a spot in the conference championship game, but the Huskies are trying to stay on the undefeated path to a potential playoff berth. Washington travels to Oregon State (-1) where the Beavers have hopes of playing themselves into the conference title game as well. My computer is picking Oregon State in the upset.
No. 5 Oregon also controls their own destiny and can move closer to a title game berth with a win this week at No. 94 Arizona State (+22.5). The other team who is still in the running for a spot in the title game is No. 22 Arizona which this week hosts No. 21 Utah (pick'em).
The most complicated power five conference race is the Big 12 where at least five teams are still fighting for the top two spots. No. 6 Texas has a one-game lead in the standings and can solidify their position with a win at No. 31 Iowa State (+9). No. 41 Oklahoma State, No. 8 Oklahoma, and No. 4 Kansas State all also hope to stay alive in the conference race this week at No. 78 Houston (+7), at No. 67 BYU (+24), and at No. 36 Kansas (+7.5), respectively.
Table 3 below summarizes the notable Group of Five action in Week 12.
The chase for the Group of Five bid to the New Year's Six bowls will first depend on whether No. 48 Tulane can win out, including the Amercian Athletic Conference Championship Game. The Green Wave travel to Florida Atlantic (+10) this week. My computer is betting on No. 29 Southern Methodist to win the AAC, but the Mustangs will likely need to survive a trip to No. 60 Memphis (+7.5) to fulfill that destiny.
If Tulane does drop a game, undefeated No. 44 Liberty will be the most likely benefactor. The Flames are not expected to be challenged this week by UMass (+27.5). The other two teams who are lying in wait for a possible berth are No. 57 Toledo and No. 19 Troy. The Rockets edged Bowling Green by a point on the road Tuesday night while the Trojans host Louisiana (+15.5) on Saturday afternoon.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.
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Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.
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The data shown above in the two figures suggest that a total of eight upsets are predicted for this week, as summarized below in Table 4.
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Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week 12
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The most notable picks here include North Carolina over Clemson (-7), Oregon State over Washington (-1), and Miami over Louisville (-1). Note that my simulation of the week based on the actual opening spreads forecasts a total of 16.1 plus-or-minus 3.3 upset is the most likely scenario. This projection is virtually identical to last week's numbers.
Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.
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Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week 12. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.
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Both machines are a bit more conservative this week, which is a typical pattern as the season nears its end. My computer only recommends taking San Jose State (-14.5) and Troy (-15.5) to cover. ESPN's FPI suggests a wager on Duke (-3.5), Oregon (-22.5), and East Carolina (+3) to cover.
Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.
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Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 12. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence
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My algorithm suggests a total of 12 point total bets this week, 10 of which meet the criteria as a lock. That said, the point total bets have been, by far, my weakest performance metric so far this year.
That is all the advice that I have to give. We managed to stay alive until the very end. Check back early next week to see how the picks above faired. Enjoy the games.
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