This past Saturday the Michigan State Spartans got to experience one of the great joys in college athletics. The Spartans beat the Indiana Hoosiers. At face value, it was just one sub-.500 Big Ten school beating another sub-.500 Big Ten school but was more to the story.
It's cool to win. It is certainly better than losing. But Saturday's win brought with it more than just the thrill of victory. It came with a pot made of a metal alloy that you are allowed and even encouraged to expectorate into. A bunch of college kids got to parade it around the visiting stadium like it was the freaking Stanley Cup.
That, ladies and gentlemen, is yet another reason college athletics is unrivaled.
College teams have the privilege of playing their rivals for ridiculous relics of decades past. Those teams will proudly display those relics in a trophy case in their stadiums or football buildings and they will mourn them when they are absent. Big Ten football fans care about axes, wooden buckets, brown jugs, statues of pigs, oaken buckets, and even brass spittoons like they are cherished family heirlooms. That is because for all the reasons that matter, they are.
Michigan State may have fallen on hard times this year and have fallen well short of preseason expectations. The 2023 season has been bleak in the house that Mark Dantonio built. But even amid all the aversity and difficulty that this season has brought, Michigan State beat a rival and got to take home a trophy. I think that's pretty great.
This Friday, the Spartans will have one more chance to add to the trophy case in the Skandalaris Football Center. The winner of the game at Ford Field in Detroit between the Spartans and the Penn State Nittany Lions gets to take home the beautiful disaster that is the Land-Grant Trophy.
Some might say that Friday's game is as meaningless as spitting into the wind. Some are still spitting mad that the game was moved from Spartan Stadium to Detroit. But any time you get to compete to beat a rival and claim a trophy, that has meaning and that has value. That is what makes Big Ten and college football special.
Week 12 Betting Results
Now it's time to check and see if last week's bad betting advice was great or not-so-great starting with the summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
Figure 1 above indicates that 10 teams overachieved in Week 12 by beating the spread by more than 14 points. Those teams include Georgia, Washington State, and Arizona. Only Oklahoma failed to cover by at least 14 points, yet still won. The Michigan* Wolverines were also right on the border of underachievement.
A total of 12 teams were upset this week, which was more than one standard deviation less than the predicted value of 16 spit out by my computer last week. That said, Week 12 was the first time in seven weeks that there were fewer upsets than my simulation predicted. For the year, an excess of roughly six upsets have occurred relative to expectation (168 compared to 162.5).
Table 1 below summarizes the upsets compared to last week's picks.
It was a great week in the state of New Mexico as both the Lobos and the Aggies scored double-digit upsets over Fresno State (-24) and Auburn (-21) respectively. Appalachian State also handed James Madison (-12) the first loss for the Dukes on the season.
Other notable upsets include UCLA over USC, Michigan State over Indiana, and Virginia over Duke.
My computer did not do as well as expected, going just 2-4 (33%) for the week. This is my machine's worst performance since Week 7, but the year-to-date record is a strong 33-32 (51%).
ESPN's FPI was a solid 2-2 (50%) which bolstered the year-to-year record up to 22-31 (42%).
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.
My algorithm missed on both predictions to bring the year-to-date record down to 20-22 (48%). The FPI had a better week, going 2-1 (67%) to bring its year-to-date performance up to 42-41 (51%).
For the full set of Week 12 action, my computer was as strong 39-25 (61%) while the FPI went just 32-32 (50.7%). Year to date, my algorithm is back over .500 at 342-332 (51%) while the FPI is still two games below water at 336-338 (49.9%).
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 11.
My point total "locks" were 5-5 (50%) for the week, but the year-to-date total is six games below .500 at 32-38 (46%). The full set of recommendations had a record of 5-7 (42%) this week to bring the year-to-date total to 93-102 (48%). Both values are not great.
Big Ten and Michigan State Overview
Following the results of Week 11, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
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Table 5: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 12.
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Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 12
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The Spartans' win over Indiana was the only upset in Big Ten country this week, which was the only notable result in the Big Ten East. Michigan* remains on a collision course with both Ohio State and perhaps NCAA investigators to decide who will play for the Big Ten Championship on December 2.
Either way, the Iowa Hawkeyes will be the representative in the conference championship game from the Big Ten West thanks to a win over Illinois. Both Wisconsin and Northwestern officially became bowl eligible with wins over Nebraska and Purdue, respectively
The Badgers and Wildcats join Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers, and Iowa as the eight Big Ten teams with enough wins to be bowl eligible. Minnesota, Illinois, and Nebraska are just one win away from automatic eligibility.
Michigan State still has a slim chance to make a bowl game with a win over Penn State and if not enough teams finish at 6-6 to fill all 82 available bowl slots. Earlier this week I performed a deep dive on this subject and showed that the odds of a Spartan bowl trip are just 0.6%.
With just one week remaining in the regular season, many of the races in the Power Five are nearing or at the finish line.
The SEC Championship Game of Georgia versus Alabama was set last week. This week Alabama enjoyed a Chattanooga-flavored cupcake while Georgia scored an impressive win over Tennessee. My computer has been a Bulldog doubter all year, but No. 7 Georgia finally moved ahead of No. 8 Alabama in my computer's power rankings.
The ACC Championship Game is also now set thanks to No. 14 Louisville's win over Miami. The Cardinals will face undefeated No. 11 Florida State in two weeks for the conference crown.
In the Pac-12, No. 12 Washington secured a spot in the Pac-12 Title Game with a win over No. 15 Oregon State. Both No. 6 Oregon and No. 19 Arizona are still in play to reach the Pac-12 Championship game thanks to wins over No. 95 Arizona State and No. 21 Utah, respectively. The Duck need to beat Oregon State next week or have the Wildcats lose to Arizona State in order to secure the title game spot.
The most complicated Power Five race is in the Big 12 where four teams are still alive for the two spots in the conference title game. No. 5 Texas has a one-game lead in the standings ahead of No. 4 Kansas State, No. 9 Oklahoma, and No. 39 Oklahoma State, who are all tied. All four teams won this week.
The wording of the new tiebreaker rules was so confusing that the Big 12 had to issue a clarifying statement this week. The bottom line is that Texas and Oklahoma State both control their own destiny, and both are favored this coming weekend.
As for the Playoffs, 2023 is shaping up to be the most challenging decision that the committee has ever faced. It seems clear that the eventual SEC champion (Alabama or Georgia) will earn a spot, as will the Big Ten Champion if Iowa does not somehow upset either Michigan* or Ohio State.
For the other two spots an undefeated Florida State and an undefeated Washington would be impossible to leave out. If one or both of those two teams lose, it would leave the door open to the loser of the SEC Championship Game, the loser of the Michigan/Ohio State game, and Texas, if the Longhorns run the table and win the Big 12.
Finally, the contenders for the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six all won this weekend, so my analysis remains unchanged. Tulane continues to have the inside track if they win out and claim the American Athletic Conference Title. However, my computer does not predict that this will happen.
The most likely scenario is that Tulane picks up a loss, which would open the door for undefeated and likely Conference USA Champion Liberty to claim the New Year's Six spot. If those teams both falter, Toledo and Troy could take advantage.
Against all odds, I have reached the end for today. Check back soon for the final Bad Betting Advice of the regular season.
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