2023 Week 13 Preview: Gratitude

This week I received one of those weekly e-mails from my child's school. Inside, the principle explained that the students were learning about the concept of Gratitude as a module in their ongoing Positivity Project. (As the self-appointed Chief Optimism Officer of this website, I strongly approve of this project.)

"Gratitude is the quality of feeling and expressing thankfulness and appreciation," the newsletter explained. "It is about being aware of the consideration, kindness, and generosity of others. Gratitude is not about ignoring the negative aspects of life; it’s simply being aware of and thankful for what is good."

The newsletter also stated that "The character strength of gratitude has also been found to be the single best predictor of individual well being."

Considering the season of Thanksgiving and the fact that Michigan State football this season could be considered a "negative aspects of life," I thought that this was a message that Spartan fans need to hear this week.

In this vein, I thought that I would share the Michigan State related things that as an alumnus, I am thankful for this year.

I am grateful that through the adversity that the players have faced all year, none of which was their fault, they have stayed together and continued to play hard every week. I am grateful that, so far, attrition has been minimized.

I am grateful for Alan Haller and the professional way that he has handled both the Mel Tucker saga, Broad of Trustee drama, and the head coaching search.  Make no mistake that there are less than ethical folks out there just waiting to criticize Haller and Michigan State no matter which decision they make. Haller has remained above the fray, and I am confident that he will make an excellent hire.

I am grateful that when people in the Michigan State community make mistakes (which we all do), they own up to it and take responsibility. It is a refreshing contrast to other Universities who instead deflect, deny, make excuses, issue statements, and file injunctions when faced with overwhelming evidence of extreme ethical misconduct.

Here I usually focus on football, but I am also grateful for Tom Izzo. The man is a living legend, and the Michigan State community is blessed to have him.  It is no coincidence that when tragedy struck campus back in February, the only thing that Spartan Nation needed to hear was for Tom Izzo to tell us that everything was going to be OK. He did, and we all got through it, together.

I am grateful for the privilege of being able to use this format to share my thoughts and various mathematical calculations about sports. Even in tough years, the #math makes it fun for me, and I hope fun for you as well. I am grateful for my amazing colleagues here at Spartans Illustrated and for each and every person reading this.

Finally, I am grateful for one more chance this year to watch the Green and White take the field against Penn State. We only get 12 chances a year. Let's make the best out of it that we can.

Michigan State Prediction

The series between the Spartans and the Nittany Lions is as even as it could get. It is currently tied at 18-18-1. The series started back in 1914 and the Spartans held the early advantage. Michigan State went 8-1-1 in the 10 games played between 1914 and 1966. 

After an almost 30-year hiatus, Penn State would have the advantage in the first decade of the school's Big Ten membership. The Nittany Lions won eight of the first 10 games from 1993 to 2003. Since then, the series has been more back-and-forth with no team winning more than three games in a row.

Remarkably, the series is also even against the spread as well. Since 1997, the Spartans are 11-11-1. 

As for this year's contest, Penn State opened as a 20-point favorite against the Spartans, which is the second largest on record. In 2006, the spread was 21 points and Nittany Lions wound up winning 61-7. 

This is only the second time on record where Michigan State has been a double-digit underdog in a "home" game. Michigan State upset Penn State in 2017 as a 10-point underdog.

I can see a scenario where Michigan State is competitive in this game. Penn State has struggled recently on offense and starting quarterback Drew Allar is likely not 100%. At times this year, MSU has played stout run defense. I can easily imagine a low-scoring game where a late tipped ball pick-six could even result in an upset win to close out the season.

Unfortunately, the way that injuries are mounting up, especially on the defensive line, it is more likely that Penn State will be able to run the ball up and down the field as they run the score up on the Spartans in Ford Field. Michigan State struggles to move the ball and Penn State cruises to victory.

My ungrateful computer is very high on Penn State and has the Lions winning be closer to 30 points. My official final score prediction is Penn State 38, Michigan State 9.

Big Ten Overview

Now let's take a quick look at the rest of the action in the Big Ten in Week 13. Table 1 below includes my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials for all seven games. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 12, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

The game of the week is obviously Ohio State (+4) at Michigan. The winner of the game will face Iowa in the Big Ten Championship and will have an inside track to a spot in the playoffs. Depending on how the rest of the conference championship game plays out. The loser of the game seems likely to drop out of the College Football Playoff's top four.

The rest of the Big Ten is jockeying for bowl spots and bowl positions. Penn State would be in solid shape to pick up a New Year's Six bid with a win over Michigan State. 

Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Iowa are all in the fun position of having the chance to prevent their chief conference rivals from becoming automatically bowl eligible in their own stadiums. 

The Badgers (-10) are double-digit favorites at Minnesota, but my computer has the Golden Gophers in the upset. Northwestern (+5) and Iowa (+1.5) are both road underdogs at Illinois and Nebraska. If Michigan State finds a way to beat Penn State, loses by Illinois and Nebraska would help the Spartans' chances to sneak into a bowl game with a 5-7 record.

The only other Big Ten action features Maryland at Rutgers (+1) and Indiana at Purdue (-2.5). The Terrapins and Scarlet Knights are both 6-5 so this game has bowl placement implications. As the Hoosiers and the Boilermakers, they are simply playing for pride and an old oaken bucket.

Other Noteworthy National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable remaining Power Five action in Week 12.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Power Five action in Week 12 including my algorithms' projected scores.

The general theme across the Power Five this week is "don't screw this up." Several of the teams listed in Table 2 have a small hurdle to clear before conference championship weekend.

The biggest open question is in the Big 12 where four teams are still vying for the two spots in the conference title game. Texas (-14.5) just needs to get past Texas Tech and Oklahoma State (-17) just needs to beat BYU and the Longhorns and Cowboys will meet in the Big 12 Championship game

Things get interesting if either or both teams lose. An Oklahoma State loss opens the door first for Oklahoma (if the Sooners beat TCU (+13)) or for Kansas State (if the Wildcats beat Iowa State (+12)) if both Oklahoma schools lose. If Texas loses, the tiebreakers get very messy and there are even reports that the Big 12 is planning to issue clarification on Friday night in this scenario.

In Pac-12 action, Washington has secured a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but the Huskies are still chasing a potential playoff spot. They will need a win over Washington State (+17) to stay in this conversation.

If Oregon can beat rival Oregon State (+14) at home, the Ducks will get a rematch with Washington for the Pac-12 crown. If the Ducks lose, Arizona can play themselves in the conference title game with a win at Arizona State (+12.5).

The conference title games are set in the SEC and the ACC so Georgia, Alabama, Florida State and Louisville are just trying to pad their playoff resumes against Georgia Tech (+23), Auburn (+14.5), Florida (+7), and Kentucky (+7) respectively.

Table 3 below summarizes the notable Group of Five action in Week 13.

Table 3: Summary of other notable Group of Five action in Week 11 including my algorithms' projected scores.

Similar to the story in teh Power Five, the main contenders for the New Year's Six bid are trying to avoid a late season upset which would take them out of the running. Tulane faces the biggest challenge in the form of Texas San Antonio (+3). The Green Wave are the only contenders in Table 3 which have not secured a spot in their own conference title game, but they are also the team with the highest College Football Playoff ranking.

If Tulane loses in the next two weeks, Liberty, Toledo, and Troy are in the best position to claim the New Year's Six big. Those teams are facing UTEP (+16.5), Central Michigan (+11), and Southern Miss (+16) respectively.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 13.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.

The two computer systems together predict a total of eight specific upsets in Week 12 which are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of upset picks for Week 12

The computers forecast upset wins by Minnesota, South Carolina, Virginia, and Iowa.  Note that my weekly simulation using the exact point spreads predict X plus-or-minus upsets this week.

Table 5 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 5: Picks against the opening spread for Week 12. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My analysis of ESPN's FPI data results in a total of eight recommended bet against the spread while my algorithm suggests one additional wager and three total. My computer likes Duke to cover versus Pittsburgh, while the FPI data has Minnesota and Florida State both covering.

Finally, Table 6 below summarizes my computer's suggested point total bets for the week.

Table 6: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 12. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence

My computer will try one more time to have a good week in point total bets. There are total of 11 recommendations on the board this week, eight of which are considered "locks."

With that, I am grateful that you made it to the end. That is all the advice that I have to give for the 2023 regular season. Check back early next week to see how the picks above faired. Enjoy the games.