Thanksgiving weekend this year was an interesting mixed bag for Michigan State fans. The weekend started with a major thud, as the Spartans failed to score and were eventually blown away by Penn State, 42-0 to close out the 2023 regular season.
But the next day Michigan State created a sonic boom of excitement by announcing the hiring of Jonathan C. Smith, previously of Oregon State, as the next head football coach for the Spartans. Alan Haller knew who he wanted to take home to East Lansing, and he closed the deal with one of, if not the top candidate on the board.
Between the football outcome and the coaching hire, I would call it a "semisonic" type of weekend. Despite the disappointing results on the field this year, the coaching hire has Spartans fans feeling strangely fine. Some fans may not be completely pleased with the hire, while others are using their secret smile.
Next year will be a new beginning for Michigan State football. College football is cyclical. Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. It is difficult to know whether Smith will bring the right chemistry to the job or if the relationship will be made to last. I wish that I knew the answer to those questions.
But as always, I remain optimistic about the future of Michigan State football and the Jonathan Smith hire. I would prefer a coach with ties to the Midwest, but I must also point out that the last time Michigan State went out to the pacific northwest for a major coaching hire, they plucked some Washington native named Jud Heathcote from the University of Montana. In that case, it all worked out.
It might take a season or two for Smith to find his footing in East Lansing. Fans may need to show a little patience. But some August in the not-to-distant future, Spartan fans may be saying: "This will be our year."
Week 13 Betting Results
Now it's time to check out the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice starting with the summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.
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A total of 15 teams beat the opening spread by more than two touchdowns this week including Penn State, Texas, Southern Methodist, Arizona, Kansas, Missouri, Miami, and Maryland. The team that underachieved the most without losing was the Washington Huskies.
A total of 14 teams underachieved so much that they closed out the regular season with an upset loss. This value is about a standard deviation below the expected number of 17.4 predicted earlier in the week. Table 1 below summarizes the upsets compared to last week's picks.
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| Table 1: Upsets in Week 13 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week. |
The biggest upsets of the week were Iowa State's win over Kansas State (-12) and California's win over UCLA (-10.5), both of which had spreads that were barely over 10 points. From an upset point of view, the 2023 regular season ended with more of a whimper than a bang.
Unfortunately, my computer was also whimpering after its Week 13 upset picks, which went just 1-5 (17%). That said, the total performance for the year ended at a strong 34-37 (48%) which is the algorithm's third best record since 2009.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) had a better week on lower volume, posting a record of 2-1 (67%). Year-to-date, the FPI was just 24-32 (43%) for upset picks in the regular season.
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' suggested picks against the opening spread.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week 13. |
My computer closed out the 2023 regular season with a nice 2-1 (67%) record, bringing the year-to-date performance up to 22-23 (49%). The FPI did not do quite as well, posting just a 3-5 (38%) record and finishing the regular season at 45-46 (49.5%). Both machines finished just one game under .500.
When the results of all of Week 13's games are considered, both algorithms did extremely well. My computer went 39-26 (60%) while the FPI did even better at 43-22 (66%). Year-to-date, my computer went 381-358 (51.6%) and the FPI was two games back at 379-360 (51.3%).
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 13.
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| Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week 13. |
It was yet another tough week for the over/under picks. The very poorly named "locks" went 3-5 (38%) to bring the regular season tally to 35-43 (45%). The full set of picks went 4-7 (36%) for the week to bring the year-to-date record to just 97-109 (47%).
Big Ten Overview
The final weekend of Big Ten divisional play perhaps ever ended with clear separation in both the East and the West. The big result was Michigan* holding on to defeat Ohio State to claim the Big Ten East trophy for the third consecutive year. It remains to be seen if several years from now the record books will still officially mention those championships.
I will reiterate now what I have said previously. The Big Ten has already made a harsh and direct statement that there is "uncontroverted" evidence that Michigan used an illegal scheme which unfairly impacted games in Big Ten play this year.
Based on the results of this weekend's game, Michigan does appear to be the best team in the Big Ten without stealing signals. That is a fact. But it is also true that they broke the rules in a serious and "unprecedented" fashion this season. These two facts can be true at the same time. The consequence of the second fact should be automatic disqualification from the postseason, regardless of the first fact.
Beyond the continuing scandal and controversy in Ann Arbor, the rest of the Big Ten sorted themselves out in the final weekend of the season. The Big Ten East final standing shows no ties. Maryland defeated Rutgers and in the battle for fourth place in the division. Purdue's win over Indiana gave Michigan State sole possession of sixth place in the East and precipitated the firing of head coach Tim Allen from the last-place Hoosiers.
In the Big Ten west, Iowa scored a mild upset of Nebraska to finish the season with a two-game lead in the standings. Wisconsin and Northwestern claimed victory over Minnesota and Illinois to finish in a second-place tie in the division at 5-4.
The remainder of the Big Ten West (Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, and Purdue) finished in a four-way tie for fourth place with a record of 3-6.
As things stand today, eight Big Ten teams are bowl eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa Maryland, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Rutgers.
Minnesota finished the season 5-7, but as the team with the highest academic progress rating (APR) ranking of the 5-7 teams, the Golden Gohors are in line to claim the 82nd and final bowl slot. However, this is not guaranteed, as 5-6 Navy can still get to .500 with a win over Army on Dec. 9. Some have suggested that the bowls will be allowed to take Minnesota over Navy due to the lateness of the Army-Navy game on the schedule.
Incidentally, if Michigan State were to have beaten Penn State, the Spartans would have fallen well short of the bowl berth bubble. Michigan State was five spots below "last team in" Minnesota on the APR rankings list.
National Overview
It is now time for last call as we have reached the last section for today. Please finish your whiskey or beer.
Rivalry week generated some significant drama as Florida State, Alabama, Washington, and Oklahoma State all had close calls. But when the dust settled, the only major upset impacting the overall college football landscape was Kentucky's upset of Louisville.
The only real impact is that now the Cardinals have no chance at a playoff spot when previously they had an extremely small chance. Louisville will almost certainly land in the Orange Bowl either as the ACC Champion or (more likely) the replacement for Florida State assuming the undefeated Seminoles (with a win over Louisville) would make the playoffs.
Based on the results of the weekend, here are next weekend's Power Five conference championship matchups:
--ACC: Florida State (-3.5) versus Louisville
--Big Ten: Michigan (-23.5) versus Iowa
--Big 12: Texas (-14) versus Oklahoma State
--Pac-12: Oregon (-9) versus Washington
--SEC: Georgia (-5) versus Alabama
Here are the math-ups in the Group of Five
--AAC: Tulane (-4) versus SMU
--C-USA: Liberty (-10.5) versus New Mexico State
--MAC: Toledo (-8.5) versus Miami of Ohio
--Mountain West: Boise State (-2.5) versus UNLV
--Sun Belt: Troy (-6.5) versus Appalachian State
Note that in the Mountain West, Boise State and UNLV were tied with San Jose State with 6-2 conference records, but the Spartans lost out due to the use of computer rankings as the three teams did not all play one another in the regular reason.
In this week's Bad Betting Advice, I will provide a detailed analysis of the conference championship games and the College Football Playoff and New Year's Six scenarios.
Against all odds we have reached closing time for the 2023 regular season. It's time to open all the doors and let you out into the world. So, gather up your jackets and move to the exits. I hope that you have found a friend. While the Spartans' season is over, I will continue to offer analysis and potentially dubious financial suggestions regarding the remainder of the college football season.
That's it for now and remember you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here.
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