2023 Champ Week Preview

The season for the Michigan State Spartans is over, but there are still college football games to be played, numbers to be crunched and potential wagers to be placed. To this end, I will continue to provide analysis for the remainder of the college football season, starting new with a preview of Championship Week and with my standard set of recommended bets.

Championship Week Picks

As has been the traditional all season, Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Championship Week.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.

There are a total of 10 contests this weekend and have also included the traditional Army/Navy game on Dec. 9. Figures 1 and 2 above show that the computers' predictions mostly agree with the opening Vegas spreads. However, there are a handful of recommendations that I can make based on this data.

The computers together suggest three total upset out of the 11 total games. Those upsets are summarized below in Table 1.

Table 1: Summary of upset picks for Championship Week

For reference a simulation of Championship Week suggests that 3.2 plus-or-minus 1.4 upsets are likely. The computers are not forecasting any upsets in the five Power Five Championship games, but the machines do like a pair of upsets in the Group of Five which could impact the New Year's Six Bowls. 

The computers are both projecting that Southern Methodist will upset Tulane, which would deny the Green Wave a second consecutive trip to the New Year's Six. My computer also is predicting an upset in the MAC Championship Game. If Toledo were to lose to Miami of Ohio, the Rockets slim shot at a New Year's Six Bowl would also drop to zero.

Table 2 below summarizes the computers' pick against the opening Vegas spreads this week.

Table 2: Picks against the opening spread for Championship Week. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

The only two picks this week come from ESPN's Football Power Index. My analysis of the FPI data suggest a wager on Southern Methodist (+4) and Liberty (-6.5) both to cover.

Regarding point total bets, there is only one suggestion, so I will skip the table for this week. My computer recommends taking the "under" on 67.5 points in the Pac-12 Championship matchup of Oregon versus Washington.

College Football Playoff Rankings

For the rest of my time today, I would like to make a few predictions on which teams will make the playoffs and which teams will fill the remaining New Year's Six spots. Through the season, I have used simulations to make these predictions. Now that Championship Week has arrived, and the point spreads have been released, it is possible to calculate the odds of each New Year Six scenario exactly.

The best and most obvious clue as to what will happen is to review the penultimate college football playoff rankings, which were released on Tuesday night. Table 3 summarizes these rankings along with some of my calculated power ranking and strength of record for each team in the top 25.

Table 3: Current College Football Playoff ranking. For reference, I have included my strength of resume metric and power ranking for each team.

At first glance, I do not completely agree with the committee's rankings. Specifically, my data suggests that Texas is underrated and likely should be ranked No. 5 ahead of Oregon. I could argue that both teams should be ahead of undefeated Florida State. 

I am also not convinced that Missouri should be the highest ranked two-loss team. I would likely place both Penn State and Oklahoma ahead of the Tigers.

That said, the college football playoff ranking give a significant hint about how the results of Championship Week will impact the final New Year's Six placement.

New Years Six and Playoff Constraints

In order to start making predictions, it is best to review some basic information about how the playoffs and New Years's Six bowl work.

This year the two playoff games are designated to be the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl. Based on the current rankings, we can make a few simple observations from the start. If Goergia beats Alabama, the Bulldogs will be the No. 1 seed and they will be placed in the geographically convenient Sugar Bowl. 

If Michigan wins the Big Ten championship, the Wolverines will almost certainly be placed in the Rose Bowl against the Pac-12 champion (Washington or Oregon) to create the traditional match-up regardless of the outcome of the SEC Championship Game.

The fourth playoff team will be undefeated Florida State (if the Seminoles beat Louisville to win the ACC) or Texas (if the Longhorns beat Oklahoma State to claim the Big 12 crown). If either Georgia or Michigan get upset and/or if both Florida State and Texas lose, several interesting scenarios come into play, which will be discussed later.

Placement of the remaining teams into the Orange, Cotton, Fiesta, and Peach Bowls is straightforward this year.

The Orange Bowl is the only "contract bowl" that is not a part of the playoffs. The matchup in Miami is almost fixed already. By contract, the Orange Bowl is obligated to select the ACC Champion (or the next highest ranked ACC team if the champion makes the playoffs) to face the highest ranked non-playoff and non-champion of the SEC or the Big Ten.

Those constraints sound complicated, but the result is quite simple. If Florida State beats Louisville, the Seminoles will make the playoffs and the Cardinals will be slotted into the Orange Bowl as the second place ACC team. If Louisville upsets Florida State, the Cardinals will not make the playoffs and would therefore be placed in the Orange Bowl as the ACC Champions.

As for the other team, No. 6 Ohio State is very likely headed to Miami as well. There are a few scenarios where the Buckeyes make the playoffs and either Alabama or Michigan wind up in the Orange Bowl, but those are low probability events.

The remaining three New Year's Six Bowl are almost interchangeable. The committee will select the highest ranked remaining teams and try to pair them up to make the most compelling matchups. 

Last year Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl, so I expect that either the Peach Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl will take the Group of Five Champion this year. As we know that both No. 14 Louisville and a Group of Five team ranked in the 20s will both take New Year's Six spots, the "last team" into the New Year's Six this year is most likely No. 10 Penn State. Either the Nittany Lions or No. 9 Missouri will be paired with the Group of Five Champion in most scenarios in (I am guessing) the Fiesta Bowl.

As for the other two games, the loser of the Pac-12 Championship (Oregon or Washington) will likely be placed in the Cotton Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl and will face the highest ranked remaining team on the board (Texas, Florida State or Alabama). The Peach Bowl or the Cotton Bowl will then host the remaining two teams. 

If Alabama does not make the playoffs, I am assuming that the committee would not match the Crimson Tide up against Texas (as they have already played each other this year) or SEC foe Missouri. Alabama is most often paired with either Penn State or the Pac-12 runner-up.

Possible sources of chaos

This year the result of all five Power Five Championship games will impact the final playoff and New Year's Six pairings. This means that there are a total of 32 possible scenarios, and I have mapped out all of them.

The single biggest question in reviewing these 32 scenarios is what the Committee is going to do if No. 8 Alabama beats No. 1 Georgia. How far would the Crimson Tide Rise and how far would the Bulldogs fall? In addition, would No. 8 Alabama leapfrog over No. 7 Texas if both teams win?

There is no consensus on this issue, but my best guess is that Alabama would not overtake Georgia or Texas in the final standings even with a SEC Championship Game win. If I am correct, Georgia will still make the playoffs, win or loss on Saturday, and Alabama will need additional help to get in. 

If I am wrong, there is a small chance that both Georgia and Alabama could be left out of the playoffs if Alabama, Michigan, Texas, and Florida State all win. My metrics shown above in Table 3 seem to support this idea. That said, I see little to no chance that the playoffs would not feature an SEC team.

With the assumption that Georgia will remain in the top four regardless, the most likely set of scenarios involve Georgia, Michigan, either Oregon or Washington, and either Texas or Florida State in the playoffs. Exact half (16 of the 32 scenarios) with a total probability of 90% fall into this category. 

Of the remaining 16 scenarios, eight of them involve Alabama beating Georgia and sneaking into the playoffs as the No 4 seed. In order for this to happen, at least two upsets need to occur in the ACC, Big Ten, or Big 12 Championships.

Four of the remaining scenarios involve Ohio State earning the No. 4 seed. For this to occur, Georgia needs to eliminate Alabama from consideration and both Florida State and Texas need to lose as well. It is possible that Ohio State would need Washington to beat Oregon, but I believe the Huskies would fall below the Buckeyes with a loss.

In the final set of four scenarios, Texas and Florida State both win and Iowa upsets Michigan, knocking the Wolverines out of the top four and into the Orange Bowl.  I also have the Wolverines falling out of the top four with a loss to Iowa and a win by Alabama and either Louisville or Oklahoma State.  

The other consequence of upsets is that a win by Iowa or Oklahoma State will knock Penn State out of the New Year's Six. If both Iowa and Oklahoma State were to win, Missouri would also fall out of the New Year's Six.

Odds Summary

For those who are interested in the mathematical details of the scenarios laid out above, Table 4 below summarizes my pairings in all 32 scenarios, listed from most likely to least likely, based on the current point spread.

Table 4: The 32 possible New Year's Six Scenarios based on the results of each Power Five Championship Game

My calculated odds for each team to play in each bowl (assuming the Group of Five champion gets slotted into the Fiesta Bowl) is shown below in Table 5. 

Table 5: Odds for each team to play in each bowl, based on the assumptions mentioned in the text and the current Vegas spread for each game.

The most likely playoff pairings are Georgia versus Florida State and Michigan versus Oregon. Note the odds for Michigan to miss the playoffs (3.2%) are very similar to the odds the either Ohio State (4.1%) or Alabama (3.1%) make the playoffs.

As for the Group of Five representative, if Tulane (-4) of beats Southern Methodist (which has 61% odds) the Green Wave are headed to the New Year's Six. If Tulane loses, Liberty will claim the spot as long as the Flames are not extinguished by New Mexico State (+10.5). Liberty has a 30% chance to earn the spot.

If both Tulane and Liberty lose, Toledo is the next team up, assuming the Rockets can beat Miami of Ohio (+6.5). I currently give Toledo a 6.4% chance. If all three teams lose (2.4% odds), Southern Methodist would likely get the nod over a team time Troy out of the Sun Belt.

That is all the advice that I have to give for this Championship Week. Enjoy the games.