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2023 Final Playoff and New Year's Six Predictions

The conference championships have all been played and, in all honesty, last night's results were the absolute worst-case scenario for the Selection Committee. Michigan and Washington will almost certainly be given the No. 1 and No. 2 seed and be placed in the Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl respectively. But there are four other teams with a reasonable claim on the last two spots and I have no idea what the committee is going to do.

Florida State is undefeated, but the Seminoles played the weakest schedule of the four candidates and their star quarterbac (Jordan Travis) suffered a season ending injury in the second-to-last game of the regular season. Florida State is outside of the Top 10 in both the FPI and in my power rankings. I also the Seminoles ranked No. 5 in my strength of record metric, behind two of the other three candidates.

Georgia is the defending national champions and were previously ranked No. 1 coming into the week. But after losing to Alabama in the SEC Title game, one must ask the question "what have you done for me lately?" The Bulldogs' best wins of the year were over Missouri and Ole Miss and their strength of schedule is almost as bad as Florida State's. 

I have Georgia at No. 8 in my power rankings and with just the No. 7 in strength of record. I previously thought that UGA would coast on reputation alone into the playoffs even with a loss to Alabama. But now that that has happened... I am not so sure.

Speaking of Alabama, the Crimson Tide are the SEC champions, which should count for something. I have Alabama ranked No. 4 in my strength of record metric, but only No. 9 in my power rankings. The main concern here is that Bama was only ranked No. 8 last week. It is reasonable for the Tide to jump that high up in the standings, especially since one of the teams that Alabama might need to jump beat them head-to-head back in September?

The team that beat Bama, of course, is Texas who breezed past Oklahoma State to win the Big 12. My computer has the Longhorns ranked higher than any of the other three candidates in both power rankings (No. 4) and strength of record (No. 3). The problem is that Texas has the worst loss of the bunch (to No. 12 Oklahoma), started the weekend at No. 7 and will not get much of a bump from beating Oklahoma State.

So... what is the committee going to do? I am not sure, but with four teams vying for two spots, there are six possible options (ignoring variations where the No. 3 and No. 4 teams are switched). Here are those options, with the other New Year's Six Bowls thrown into the mix.

Option 1: Dr. Green and White's Pick

  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Alabama
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas
  • Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 6 Georgia
  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Oregon
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 10 Penn State
  • Peach Bowl: No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 20ish Liberty
I mean, just look at those matchups. Those are all great games and I think the best and most deserving teams are in the top four. If I were in charge, this would be the answer.

Option 2: What Probably Will Happen

  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Florida State
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Alabama
  • Orange Bowl: No. 16-ish Louisville vs. No. 6 Georgia
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas
  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 8 Oregon
  • Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 20-ish Liberty
One could easily flip Alabama and Florida State, but the way this season has gone, having Michigan draw a team without a quarterback that is not good enough to make the playoffs feels exactly like what is going to happen. Notice how much this playoff group messes up all the other matchups. Gross.

Option 3: The "No SEC" Option

  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Florida State
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas
  • Orange Bowl: No. 16-ish Louisville vs. No. 6 Georgia
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Alabama
  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 8 Oregon
  • Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 20-ish Liberty
This would be a hilarious outcome. It will never happen that an SEC team will get left out, but I could certainly justify this outcome with some of my data. The bowl season might wind up telling us the SEC is not nearly as strong as some people think this year.

Option 4: The "All SEC" Option

  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Alabama
  • Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 7 Ohio State
  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 8 Oregon
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 10 Penn State
  • Peach Bowl: No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 20-ish Liberty
While having two SEC teams in the playoffs is distasteful, I have to admit that these matchups are all pretty good.

Option 5: The "Rematch Purgatory" Option

  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Florida State
  • Orange Bowl: No. 16-ish Louisville vs. No. 7 Ohio State
  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oregon
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 9 Missouri
  • Peach Bowl: No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 20-ish Liberty
Earlier in the week when I mapped everything out, this was the playoff pairings I expected in the scenario where Texas, Florida State, and Alabama all won. Now... I am not so sure. The other challenge is that the other New Year's Six matchups are messy due to possible rematches. Alabama should not play Texas or Missouri in a bowl game. If the committee were to do something like that, I would be in favor of a lifetime ban for all of them.

Option 6: The "WTF" Option

  • Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • Rose Bowl: No. 2 Washington vs. No. 3 Texas
  • Orange Bowl: No. 5 Florida State vs. No. 7 Ohio State
  • Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oregon
  • Cotton Bowl: No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 10 Penn State
  • Peach Bowl: No. 11 Ole Miss vs. No. 20ish Liberty
This is perhaps the most unlikely of the six possibilities. The justification here would be that Georgia cannot fall all the way from No. 1 to out of the playoffs and Texas gets priority as a conference champion and a head-to-head win over Alabama. Florida State would be eliminated due to concerns over their quarterback. Honestly speaking, however, this creates a lot of good matchups.

Bad Betting Advice Results

I do not think that it is worth it to issue a full "Against All Odds" this week, so I will just comment briefly on the computer's results. It was a great week for both computers.

My computer got both upset picks correct (Southern Methodist and Miami of Ohio) and the FPI got both picks against the spread correct (Southern Methodist and Liberty). My computer even corrected suggested to take the under in the Pac-12 Championship Game. 

That is all I have for today. Let's see how this plays out.

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