Being a fan of the Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team can be an interesting ride. Sometimes you are up and sometimes you are down. This season in particular was felt like a ride on a old-school playground seesaw. It is fun at times but after a while it can make you a little nauseous.
Over the past two weeks, the Spartans have experienced some ups and downs. After losing in Madison to the Wisconsin Badgers, Michigan State rallied to beat Michigan and Maryland at home. Spartans fans felt a little ill following the loss in Minneapolis, but are doing a lot better after Saturday's win over No. 10 Illinois.
With almost 65% of the Big Ten season now complete, it is not to once again check in on where the Spartans stand in the Big Ten and what is to come. As always, check out the odds and stats tracker for (almost) daily updates on the complete set of data that will be discussed below.
Current State of the Big Ten Race
Table 1 below give the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, Feb. 12.
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Michigan State is currently in fifth place behind Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Northwestern with a conference record of 7-6. The Spartan continue to have very poor luck (-1.56) and are sitting at zero in the plus/minus metric (road wins minus home loses).
If the Spartans would have had just average luck, the record would be 8-5 if not 9-4 and Michigan State fans would generally be feeling much better. In this scenario, the conversation in East Lansing would be centered around catching Purdue and instead of simply staying off of the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten expected win matrix.
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Michigan State (11.65 win) also is currently in fifth place in expected conference wins in a virtual dead heat with the still very lucky Northwestern Wildcats (11.81). Nebraska is about a game back (10.77).
The biggest change since the last update is that Wisconsin has taking a nosedive and have lost four straight games since beating Michigan State on Jan. 26. The Badgers (12.32) have lost close to three games in expected wins in the past two weeks.
Both Michigan State and especially Northwestern have easier remaining schedules compared to Wisconsin. The Spartans have also passed the Badgers in Kenpom efficiency margin. Both teams are now within striking distance of passing Wisconsin in the final standings.
Wisconsin's losing streak and Michigan State's win over Illinois have also both been very positive for the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue currently has a three-and-a-half game lead in expected wins. My simulation gives Purdue over a 99% chance to win the regular season title with Illinois (4%) as the only team with a realistic chance to earn even a tie.
Table 3 below gives an update on the Big Ten Tournament seeding odds.
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The race for the double bye in the Big Ten Tournament has gotten more interesting, but Michigan State is still positioned in fifth place in Table 3. The Spartans' are currently 0-3 against Wisconsin and Northwestern, which results in a very weak position relative to seeding tiebreakers. That said, Michigan State still has a 39% to finish in the top four.
As for the tournament itself, Purdue currently has a 54% chance to repeat as tournament champions with Illinois (18%), Wisconsin (10%), and Michigan State (10%) as the most likely challengers.
Michigan State's Remaining Schedule
As mentioned above, perhaps more than most years, the current Spartan men's basketball season feels like a being on a seesaw. It feels like Michigan State has been hovering between 11 and 12 expected conference wins for the entire Big Ten season. As Figure 1 below shows, that because they have.
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| Figure 1: Trend in Michigan State expected conference wins since late 2023. |
The Spartans' win on Jan. 4 over Penn State resulted in a boost in expected wins up to 12.4. But the subsequent loss at Northwestern dropped the total to 11.2 wins. The expected win total then saw steady growth through the road win at Maryland, only to see the loss at Wisconsin knock it back down again.
Wins over Michigan and Maryland had the total close to 12 wins again, but the loss to Minnesota was yet another set back. Saturday's win over Illinois has the Michigan State once again trending closer to 12 wins than 11. Figure 2 below gives a visual representation of Michigan State's expected win probabilities.
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The most likely result is a final record of 12-8 which translates into a 5-2 record coming down the stretch. A final record of 11-9 is next likely, but 13-7 is just seven percentage points less likely than 11-9. There is just a 15% chance of the Spartans finishing with a 10-10 or worse and there is a 3% chance that Michigan State runs the table and finishes at 14-6.
Figure 3 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games. |
| Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins |
A glance at Michigan State's remaining schedule shows why a 5-2 record in the final seven games is reasonable. The Spartans finish the season with three road games against the three weakest teams in the conference (Penn State, Michigan, and Indiana) and have two home games against teams in the bottom half of the conference (Iowa and Ohio State).
The road game at Purdue is obviously extremely challenging, but Michigan State should be at least a five-point favorite in the other six contests. The games are even reasonable spaced out, with no difficult travel remaining.
Despite being favored over the next four games, the expected number of wins is just 3.0. In other words, the math suggests that the Spartans will drop one of the next four, with this Wednesday's game at Penn State as the most likely. Even with the Wolverines struggling, next weekend's rivalry game in Ann Arbor will also be a challenge.
If Michigan State can ride the momentum of Saturday's win over Illinois and win the next two games on the road, the Spartans would only need to protect home court going forward to secure at least 12 conference wins. This would position the Spartans to potentially secure both a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament and a more favorable seed in the Big Dance in March.
If the Spartans were to lose one (or both) of the next two road games, Michigan State fans would once again experience that sickening sudden drop. With March approaching, it is time to get off of the seesaw.
Quick Four Factors Update
In the final segment for today, let's take a look at the Four Factors for Michigan State's last two contests, starting with the win over Illinois.
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| Figure 4: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's win versus Illinois on Feb. 10. |
Why did Michigan State win?
The Spartans did a good job with turnovers and rebounding such that both teams had almost the same number of scoring opportunities. Then, Michigan State shot better from the field. Beyond that, the Spartans got to the free throw way much more than usual, and they converted when they got there.
Figure 5 below summarizes the Four Factors in Michigan State's loss at Minnesota on Feb. 6.
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| Figure 5: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's loss at Minnesota on Feb. 6. |
Why did Michigan State lose?
This is a case where the Four Factors do not tell the whole story. Accord the figure, the factors are quite even. The Spartans had a small advantage in turnovers and rebounding was a push. Michigan State wound up with more shots from the field, but Minnesota shot slightly better.
The deciding factor was the free throw line. The Golden Gophers only shot two more free throws compared to Michigan State, but the Spartans inexplicably missed 10 of their 17 attempts. That was the difference in the game. This anomaly is unlikely to happen again and furthermore is an example of poor luck seen so far this year in East Lansing.
In a broader context, the results of these two games tell us that the Spartans are continuing to shoot the ball well, are taking care of the ball, and are generating turnovers. Michigan State continues to be a very below average offensive rebounding team and free throw rate continues to be underwhelming.
But there are two factors on defense that are worth a closer look. On the positive side Michigan State has done a much better job in the last two games on the defensive glass relative to the last several weeks. This has been a problem for the Spartans all year, and there are signs that maybe this is starting to improve.
On the negative side, however, Michigan State defensive effective field goal percentage is drifting in a negative direction. The Spartans have only kept one of their opponents below 50% in this metric in one of the last seven conference games (the home win against Maryland).
Anecdotally, several of the Spartans' opponents seem to have been relatively hot from the field. Teams have tended to hit shot while heavily guarded and/or players have shoot better than their averages would have predicted. This would once again speak to poor luck.
That said, there were several instances in the last few weeks where poor switches and double teams have resulted in open shooters on the perimeter. So perhaps the higher than expected opponents' shooting percentage is indicative of actual slippage on the defensive end.
If the Spartans are to get off from the seesaw, defensive rebounding needs to continue to improve and the Green and White need to get back to playing lock-down defense.
Appendix
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