MSU Hoops Odds Update: Deep Six

Earlier this week, I wrote in this space about how the Spartans still had a chance to win a regular season Big Ten title. Michigan State appeared to be rounding into typical late February form after two road wins against Penn State and Michigan. When I squinted hard enough at the Big Ten standings and schedule there was a path for the Spartans to wedge their way into a first place tie if everything broke just right.

But that path was dependent on Michigan State running the table to close out the regular season. Before the electrons had even dried on my article, the Spartans laid an egg in Tuesday night's loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Following the game I wanted to deep six my analysis about as bad as Tom Izzo likely wanted to deep six the Iowa game film.

What went wrong against Iowa and how much damage was done as a result? Let's dig deep into the numbers to learn more. As always, check out the odds and stats tracker for a full rundown of all the data that will be referenced below.

Iowa Loss Postmortem

Figure 1 below provides a summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's home loss to Iowa on Feb. 21.

Figure 1: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's home loss to Iowa on Feb. 21.

So what went wrong?

The Spartans have struggled all year to rebound the ball, but one encouraging trend over the past few weeks is that Michigan State's defensive rebounding has improved. In fact, the Spartans have held the last five opponent to under 26% in offensive rebounding rate, including Iowa. 

This is now a trend and it is a positive one, even if the Spartans are still struggling to rebound their own misses. In general, opponents are currently not gaining a significant advantage in second chance points. 

The deficit in rebounding prowess on the 2023-34 Michigan State team has largely been offset by stronger than average performance with turnovers. Prior to Tuesday, the Spartans had only lost the turnover battle in two of the first 15 Big Ten games (at Northwestern and at Wisconsin). 

But the Hawkeyes took excellent care of the ball this week with just six giveaways and this counteracted one of Michigan State's key strengths this year on defense.

As a result, this game came down to shooting and the Hawkeyes simply made more shots, both from the field and especially from the free throw line.

While the free throw numbers are frustrating, the defensive field goal percentage trend is more concerning. Nine of the Spartans' last 10 opponents have shot better than 50% in effective field goal percentage, which is a very high number for a Tom Izzo-coached team.

For much of the last two months, this trend has been disguised by a combination of improved shooting on offensive and/or the generation of turnovers on defense. In the games where the Spartans have not generated turnovers, they have needed to shoot very well to win. 

This is not a long-term strategy for success. If the Spartans plan to make a deep run in March, this area needs to be shored up immediately.

Big Ten Race Update

The loss to Iowa made the Spartans' potential Big Ten title run move from extreme longshot territory into the realm of near impossibility. My latest simulation puts the odds at 1-in-8,700. Those odds are similar to those for an above average No. 16 seed to make the Final Four in any given year.

The more important result of the week are that Michigan State's loss coupled with wins by Northwestern and Nebraska have caused the Spartans to drop to sixth place in regular season conference wins at 11.47. The full Big Ten win distribution is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb.23, 2024.

Figure 2 below highlights the win distribution data for Michigan State shown in the table above.

Figure 2: Regular season Big Ten win probability distribution for Michigan State as of Feb. 23, 2024.

Michigan State remains heavily favored in three of the final four games on the schedule, so the most likely outcomes is a final regular season record of 12-8. That said, the odds that the Spartans drop at least two of the final four games is 48%.

Even if Michigan State does finish with a 12-8 record, Table 1 shows that Wisconsin (12.22), Northwestern (11.95), and Nebraska (11.61) all also project to finish the regular season with at least 12 conference wins. 

Michigan State would lose all tiebreakers with that group of three teams, meaning the No. 6 seed is now the most likely landing spot for the Spartans in the Big Ten Tournament, as shown below in Table 2.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb. 23, 2024.

There is still a lot of basketball left to be played before the conference tournament. The Spartans still have an 18% chance to nab a top four seed and tournament double bye. Anything from the No. 1 seed to the No. 12 seed is still possible. As of today, there is a 61% chance that Michigan State earns the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.

While this placement would certainly be disappointing, there may be some advantages. If Michigan State were to draw the No. 6 seed, a possible path in the Big Ten Tournament would go through teams such as No. 11 Rutgers or Penn State, followed by No. 3 Wisconsin, No. 2 Illinois, and then No. 1 Purdue, if those teams all make it that far. This placement would provide the opportunity to accumulate additional high quality wins prior to Selection Sunday. 

Alternatively, if the Spartans were to draw the No. 4 seed, they would get an extra day of rest, but they would need to play a team such as Nebraska or Northwestern and No. 1 would most likely be waiting in the next round. I do not believe that this scenario is any better.

NCAA Tournament Seed Implications

The loss to Iowa certainly took the wind out of the sails of the more optimistic Spartan fans. For the pessimist out there, the loss puts Michigan State onto the NCAA Tournament bubble.

But the Spartans continue to have a strong Kenpom ranking (No. 16) and NET ranking (No. 23) and they continue to be placed between a No. 6 seed and a No. 9 seed in most online brackets. Figure 3 below gives the seed distribution from the bracket matrix website.

Figure 3: Distribution of NCAA Tournament seeds for Michigan State as of Feb. 22 according to bracketmatrix.com

My own seeding algorithm gives a similar result. As of Friday morning, the Spartans sitting at No. 24 on my seed list, which corresponds to the weakest No. 6 seed.

If I conduct a series of "what if" experiments on future scenarios using my seeding algorithm they suggest that is Michigan State is able to finish with a 12-8 record (3-1 to close the season), a No. 6 seed if not a No. 5 seed is most likely. A final record of 11-9 put the Spartans in No. 7/8 seed territory while a 10-10 record likely means a No. 9/10 seed or worse. 

If the Spartans win two more games (19 total) in the regular season and Big Ten Tournament combined, I believe that they are safely off the NCAA Tournament bubble. There is currently at least a 95% chance of getting to 19 wins.

The absolute best case scenario for Michigan State would be to win out, including the Big Ten Tournament and two wins over Purdue. In this case, the best seed that the Spartans could earn is most likely a No. 4 seed.

Despite the loss to Iowa, the metrics (such as Kenpom offensive and defensive efficiency) still suggest that the Spartans have the potential to be a National Title dark horse. A deep run in March is still possible, especially considering the Spartans play only one game, at home, during the 11-span between the Iowa game and the road trip to Purdue next weekend.

This is Coach Izzo's time to shine. Does the team have what it takes to win six games to end the season in late March and early April? My confidence was certainly shaken this week, but the numbers do not lie. It is not time to deep six this team just yet.