MSU Hoops Analysis: Waiting for Guffman

Michigan State basketball fans had very high expectations coming into the 2023-24 season. After a surprising run to the Sweet 16 last March with most of the roster coming back, and with members of a top recruiting coming to East Lansing over the summer, the Spartans' lofty preseason ranking seemed completely justified.

But starting in the opening game dress rehearsal against James Madison, it was clear that something was a bit "off" about this year's Spartan squad. As the loses accumulated in the non-conference, the overall production looked less like a show that was ready for Broadway and more like a small-town community theatre farce

The second act of the season looked more promising. Following the win at Michigan, the Spartans looked poised to finish strong and challenge for maybe even top five seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But as the final curtain of regular season drew near, the Spartans tripped and flubbed their lines yet again, losing four of the last five games to finish in a three-way tie for sixth place with a 10-10 conference record.

I firmly believe that this team has the potential to make a run in this post-season. But at this point it is starting to feel like Spartans fans are just waiting for the something that is never going to happen. 

The final act of the 2023-24 season begins on Thursday. A win against Minnesota will be enough to secure Michigan State's 25th consecutive NCAA Tournament bid. A loss to the Golden Gophers would cause the collective palms of Spartan fans to be sweaty for the following 72 hours.

So will the Spartans cycle back up to approach their potential before the year is done? Or, will they fall on their faces yet again? All we can do is wait.

Big Ten Regular Season Recap

Table 1 below shows the final version of the enhanced Big Ten Standings.

Table 1: Enhanced Final Big Ten Standings 

As mentioned above, the Spartans finished the season in a three-way tie with Iowa and Minnesota for sixth place at 10-10. Worse yet, Michigan State underachieved despite owning the fourth easiest conference schedule (+0.32 wins relative to the Big Ten average). Only Nebraska (+0.61), Purdue (+0.58), and Ohio State (+0.61) had easier schedules.

Michigan State finishes the regular season with an expected win total of 12.55. This means that the Spartans should have likely gone 12-8 if not 13-7, based how they have played on a possession-by-possession basis over the entire year. The fact that the Spartans finished over two-and-a-half games below this record reflects the metric called "luck."

Several weeks ago, I explored the concept of luck as it compares to the idea of "grit." An unlucky team is a team that tends to lose more toss-up games that it wins. This could be dumb luck, but it could also speak to an inability to close out close games, which is an issue that certainly plagued the Spartans late in the season against Ohio State and Indiana.

Separating "luck" from "grit" is very difficult, if not impossible. But one way to potentially analyze the data is to compare the luck from the first 10 games of the Big Ten season with the final 10 games of the Big Ten season. If what we are calling "luck" is truly random, there should be no correlation between those two sets of data. Figure 1 below provides this comparison for the 2023-24 Big Ten regular season.

Figure 1: Comparison of the "luck" for all 14 Big Ten teams in the first half of the season compared to the season half.

Interestingly, nine of the 14 Big Ten teams had positive luck in one half of the season and negative luck in the other half. Only five teams had both positive or negative luck in both halves.

Penn State, Minnesota, and especially Indiana experienced positive luck on both ends of the season. Michigan was negative in both, but just barely in the second half of the season. Michigan State was the only Big Ten team with significant bad luck in both halves of the season.

So does Michigan State truly just have bad luck, or do they uniquely lack the killer instinct needed to win close games? The answer is likely that it is a combination of both. There is a chance that their luck turns around just in time for the postseason. But there is also a chance that the Spartans simply what their record says that they are: a middle of the pack and mediocre Big Ten team on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

What Went Wrong at Indiana

Figure 2 below summarizes the Four Factors on both offense and defense for the Spartans' loss at Indiana on March 10.

Figure 2: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's win over Northwestern on March 10.

Why did Michigan State lose?

The Spartans had a significant edge in turnovers (10 to 16) and held their own on the glass. Michigan State and Indiana both grabbed 12 offensive rebounds. Indiana got to the free throw line more often that Michigan State (12 shots to seven shots), but the Hoosier missed so many free throws that the Spartans came out ahead in this statistic, six point to just five.

The key difference in the game came down to shooting. Michigan State shot a miserable 44.6% from the field (effective field goal percent) while Indiana shot much better at 52.6%. 

A look back at the figures from the previous Big Ten game reveals that the Spartans have been outshot in 14 of the 20 Big Ten games. Basketball is ultimately a game of putting the ball into the basket. Michigan State has proven shooters on this team. They have also demonstrated to ability to play lock-down defense at times.

There is a chance that the change in scenery of the post-season will jolt the Spartans enough to shake them out of the current shooting slump. There is also a chance that the post-season will stimulate the level of focus and execution the Spartan fans saw in last years first two NCAA Tournament games as well as at times earlier this season (for example in the wins over Baylor and Illinois).

But will that actually happen? We will just have to wait and see.

Big Ten Tournament Preview

Now that the regular season is complete and the Big Ten Tournament bracket is set, it is possible to calculate the odds for each team to advance past each round of the Tournament. Table 2 below gives these odds. 

In addition, Table 2 gives the current Vegas money lines for each team to win the tournament. Next to the money lines are the equivalent odds for those lines.

Table 2: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance to each round of the upcoming Big Ten Tournament.

As expected, No. 1 Purdue leads the way with close to a 50% chance to repeat as Big Ten Tournament Champions. No. 2 Illinois has the second best odds at 23%, and No. 3 Nebraska has the third best odds at 8.7%.

After the top three teams, the odds to win the tournament do not correlate to the seeds of the remaining teams. Despite earning just the No. 8 seeds, Michigan State has the fourth best odds to win the Tournament at 5.6%, just ahead of No. 5 Wisconsin (5.5%) and No. 4 Northwestern (4.1%).

The Spartans have 71% percent chance to beat Minnesota in the second round on Thursday and a 19% chance to beat Purdue and advance to the semifinals on Saturday. Michigan State has an 11% chance to reach the Big Ten Tournament finals. 

Interestingly, the Vegas money line suggests that Michigan State's odds to win the Tournament (9%) are notably larger that the odds derived from Kenpom. Based on this information, the oddsmakers in Vegas may feel the the Spartans' luck is more likely to improve than not.

The next best odds to win the Tournament belong to No. 7 Iowa (1.9%), No. 10 Ohio State (1.4%), and No. 12 Maryland (0.78%). No other team has odds over one percent, including No. 6 Indiana (0.52%) and No. 9 Minnesota (0.33%).

Table 2 also highlights the fact that the odds extracted just from Kenpom efficiency data correlate very well to the Vegas money line odds, as shown below in Figure 3. In fact the order of the teams from most likely to least likely to win the Big Ten Tournament is identical when comparing the Kenpom data to the Vegas data.

Figure 3: Comparison of the odds to win the Big Ten Tournament between the Vegas money lines and the values extracted from Kenpom efficiency margin data.

NCAA Tournament Update

If Michigan State had defeated Indiana on Sunday, there would be no doubt the the Spartans would be dancing in the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. With the loss, Michigan State is officially flirting with the tournament bubble. 

That said, 100% of the brackets currently tracked by the bracketmatrix.com have Michigan State in the tournament. As Figure 4 below shows, the vast majority of bracketologists currently have the Spartans as a No. 9 or No. 10 seed.

Figure 4: Distribution of predicted NCAA Tournament seeds as of March 12, 2024. 

The Spartans metrics also continue to be very strong. As of March 12, Michigan State is ranked No. 19 in Kenpom and No. 24 in the NET. The highest ranked team in Kenpom in the last five years to not make the Tournament was Texas in 2019 at No. 29. The team with the best NET ranking to not make the Tournament was North Carolina State in 2019 at No. 34.

The worst scenario for Michigan State would be a loss to Minnesota on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. If this were to happen, Minnesota's current NET ranking of No. 86 would make it a mild "quadrant two" loss. Unless the Spartans are blown out, this potential loss would have only a small impact on the Spartans' metric and current position on the NCAA Tournament seed list.

A loss to Minnesota would likely solidify the Spartans as either a No. 10 or No. 11 seed. There is also the chance that Michigan State would end up as one of the "last four in" and participant in the First Four in Dayton. While the Selection Committee is often unpredictable, I believe that Michigan State odds to continue the current NCAA Tournament streak are over 95%.

On the bright side, what would be the best case scenario for Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament? How much could the Spartans improve their seed?

If Michigan State were to beat Minnesota and lose to Purdue, my algorithm suggests that the Spartans are likely to remain on the No. 9 or No. 10 seed line. If Michigan State is able to beat both Minnesota and Purdue, the Spartans are likely to rise to the No. 8 or No. 9 line.

In order to rise above the No. 8/9 line, it looks likely that Michigan State would need to win in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals against a team such as No. 4 Northwestern or No. 5 Wisconsin. If the Spartans can accomplish this, a No. 7 seed seems possible, if not likely.

If Michigan State goes all the way and wins the Big Ten Tournament over a team such as No. 2 Illinois, there is a small chance that the Spartans could rise all the way up to a No. 6 seed, but this seems unlikely, especially considering that the official bracket will be announced just minutes after the Big Ten Championship game on Sunday afternoon.

The No. 7 seed seems like the best possible seed for the Spartans in the Big Dance.