So far our math-informed journey into the 2024 college football season has taken us back in time to 2023, explored the schedule of the Michigan State Spartans, and delved into the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC races. Today's stop takes us to the remainder of Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences, with a brief detour looking at the likely accuracy of all these picks.
In the new 12-team college playoff, the highest ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, the Sun Belt, or the Mid-American Conference will also earn a spot on the bracket.
But which team will it be? Let's pay a quick visit to each conference and once again make some math-driven predictions.
The Mountain West
The analysis of each conference will take the same form as the analysis of the Power Four conferences in parts three and four of this series. Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the Mountain West race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength of schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the conference championship game and the odds to make and win the new 12-team playoff.
As in the last two parts of this series, the most likely scenario is the one where the favorite teams win all games. The disruptive scenario modifies the most likely scenario to inject a historically accurate number of road upsets into the overall schedule.
 |
Table 1: Summary of the preseason projections for the Mountain West conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 150,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.
|
No. 39 Boise State enters the season ranked 30 slots ahead of the projected next best team in the Mountain West, No. 69 Fresno State. As a result, the Broncos have a 55.7% chance to make the conference championship game. The toughest conference game on the schedule is a road game at UNLV (+6)
Boise State would be projected as at least a touchdown favorite in the Mountain West Championship game and therefore are the obvious pick to win the conference. Boise State does have a very tough game at Oregon (+20) in Week Two, but a regular season record of 11-1 is very possible.
As for the other team to make the Mountain West Championship Game, UNLV has the smoothest path, aided by drawing a home game against Fresno State (+2).
American Athletic Conference
Table 2 below provides the same set of data for the AAC as Table 1.
 |
Table 2: Summary of the preseason projections for the AAC, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 150,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.
|
Based on Table 2, there is a very clear separation between the top four teams in the conference (No. 44 Memphis, No. 56 Texas San Antonio, No. 60 Tulane, and No 67 South Florida) and the rest of the league. There is an 80% chance that one of those four teams will be the eventual champion.
In this case, the strength of schedule data tells the full story. Memphis might be the best team, but the Tigers have the second toughest conference schedule, including road games at Texas San Antonio (-0.5) and at Tulane (+0.5).
As a result, my disruptive simulation has Memphis dropping those two conference games. This leaves Texas San Antonio to face and beat Tulane to win the AAC Championship.
Conference USA
Table 3 below provides the same set of data for Conference USA.
 |
Table 3: Summary of the preseason projections for Conference USA, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 150,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.
|
|
On paper, Conference USA is projected to be the least competitive league in the FBS this year with the Liberty Flames boasting an 82% chance to make the conference championship game and a 61% chance to win the conference title. So Liberty is the obvious pick here.
Liberty's opponent in the C-USA Championship game is most likely Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers, along with Jacksonville State are the clear No. 2 and No. 3 teams in the the league and Western Kentucky draws Jacksonville State at home.
The real question is if Liberty can run the table and make the college football playoff. The Flames hold the easiest schedule in the nation and have the highest expected win total (10.4). The only game on the schedule where the point spread is projected to be below 15 points is a September road game at Appalachian State (-0.5).
Sun Belt
The summary of the simulation result for the Sun Belt Conference is shown below in Table 4.
 |
Table 4: Summary of the preseason projections for the Sun Belt, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 150,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.
|
The Sun Belt is the last conference hold out to retain the two-division structure. In the East, Appalachian State is a strong favorite and logical pick with a 41% chance to advance to the conference title game. The Mountaineers are ranked 20 slots ahead of the most likely challenger, James Madison, and Appalachian State faces the Dukes at home this year.
The Sun Belt West looks much more competitive, with five of the seven teams ranked within 14 slots of each other in the preseason and each with between a 13% and 27% chance to reach the Sun Belt Championship Game.
My analysis gives the Texas State Bobcats the edge based on their claim to the easiest conference schedule which includes a home gain against the most likely challenger, Louisiana (+4). Appalachian State projects to be a touchdown favorite over Texas State on a neutral field and are therefore my pick to claim the Sun Belt title.
Mid-American Conference
The summary of the simulation result for the MAC is shown below in Table 5.
 |
Table 5: Summary of the preseason projections for the MAC, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 150,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.
|
The eventual MAC champion is the least likely member of the Group of Five to earn a playoff spot, but as always the battle for the conference title should be fun. This year No. 78 Miami of Ohio, No. 88 Toledo, No. 95 Bowling Green, and No. 98 Northern Illinois project to be in the lead pack.
The Toledo Rockets own the easiest schedule of the four and finish the regular season with a single conference loss at Northern Illinois (-0.5) in both the most likely and disruptive scenarios. The Rockets project to be slight favorites in home game against both Miami of Ohio (+1) and Bowling Green (+6), and these two wins would likely be enough for Toledo to advance to the MAC Championship Game.
I project Toledo's opponent in that contest to be Bowling Green, as the Falcons have the advantage of hosting both Miami of Ohio (-1) and Northern Illinois (+4.5). The Rockets project as a two-point favorite over Bowling Green on a neutral field are therefore my MAC Champion pick.
Group of Five Overview
Now that we have reviewed and made selections for each Group of Five conference, Table 6 below summarizes the 25 teams from the Group of Five which are most likely to earn the fifth automatic playoff bid. Table 6 also gives the most significant non-conference for each team. An upset win in the non-conference would certainly bolster the playoff resume of any of the teams listed below.
 |
| Table 6: Overview of the Playoff Odds and Marquee Non-Conference Games for the 25 most likely Group of Five Teams to make the playoffs |
Based on the picks above, the selection committee may need to choose between Mountain West Champion Boise State at 12-1 (with a loss at Oregon) and the winner in the non-conference game between potentially undefeated Conference USA Champion Liberty and one-loss Sun Belt Champion Appalachian State (with a loss at Clemson).
I believe Boise State would get the nod due to strength of schedule alone, especially over Liberty, but Appalachian State could get serious consideration. This comparison might come down to margin of victory and the classic "eye test."
Pac-12 (where the "1" is silent)
With the collapse of the Pac-12 down to just No. 62 Oregon State and No. 75 Washington State, my understanding of the current rules is that neither team is eligible for an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff.
The Beavers host the Cougars (+7) this year which gives Oregon State a 68% chance to win the defacto Pac-12 Championship. However, the only way for Oregon State or Washington State to make the playoff would be as a at-large selection which would likely require a 12-0 or 11-1 season and top 10 ranking on Selection Sunday.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/how-pac-2-moves-forward-after-leverage-play-as-college-football-playoff-updates-12-team-expansion-model/
Last Year's Picks in Review
Now that all we have projected the outcome for all ten FBS conferences in 2024, let's take a quick look back at how accurate the picks were last year using the same methodology.
Table 7 below shows my picks for the 2023 division races using both the most likely and disruptive scenarios. The correct picks are shaded in yellow and listed on the right side of the table. The odds for both the projected and actual winners, based on the 2023 preseason simulation, are also shown.
 |
Table 7: Summary of last years projections for the division winners using the both the most likely and disruptive scenarios. The odds preseason odds for both the projected and actual winners (shaded yellow) are also provided.
|
The same data for the winners of each conference are given in Table 8.
 |
| Table 8: Summary of last years projections for the conference winners using the both the most likely and disruptive scenarios. The odds preseason odds for both the projected and actual winners (shaded yellow) are also provided. |
At the divisional level, my predictions using the odds (i.e. the most likely scenario) got nine of the possible 20 picks correct. The analysis using the disruptive scenario made 10 correct picks, getting both divisional winners in the Sun Belt correct, but mistakenly picking Oregon State over Washington in the Pac-12.
On the conference level, my predictions got just three picks correct out of 10 using the most likely, odds-based analysis. The disruptive analysis picked up one more correct selection in Sun Belt Champion Troy.
While this success rate may seem low, the sum of the odds in each table gives the preseason expected value for the predictions, and those numbers are dead on. My analysis only expected to get 8.7 picks correct on the division level (and it got 9 or 10 correct) and 3.0 picks correct at the conference level (and it got 3 or 4 correct).
In other words, the math once again checks out, as it does every year.
Finally, Tables 7 and 8 give a sense of what to expect in 2024. Specifically, at the division level, the biggest underdog to make a conference championship game was UNLV with preseason odds of just (4%, 9th best divisional odds in the preseason). Teams like Oklahoma State (10.4%, 7th best), Louisville (10.4%, 8th best) and New Mexico State (11.4%, 6th best) won their respective divisions with odds under 12%.
SMU (15.4%, 3rd best) and Washington (18.8%, 2nd best) both won conference titles with odds below 20%.
These are not unusual results. History and statistics both suggest that a handful of teams in 2024 who start the season with modest odds will finish the season with fuller trophy case.
With the full set of picks for each FBS conference now on the record, it is time to turn our focus onto the postseason. The next installment of this preview series will take a closer look at the new 12-team playoff. Stay tuned.
Comments
Post a Comment