2024 Week One Preview: Who?

The dawn of the next era is Michigan State football is just days away, and one things is clear. On Friday night at 7 pm in the familiar confines of Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, the Jonathan Smith era will officially kick-off with a game against the visiting Florida Atlantic Owls.

Similar to nocturnal and inquisitive bird of prey mascot for the Spartans' first opponent, Michigan State fans likely have a lot of questions. A lot of them will focus on the long list of new names and faces who will take to the field for the first time in Green and White.

Who is that young guy taking snaps and running the Spartan offense? (It's Oregon State transfer Aiden Chiles.) Who is that impressive looking tight end? (It's Jack Velling, also from Oregon State.)  Who are all those new guys on the offensive line? 

Who is Jordan Turner? (He's a linebacker transfer from Wisconsin.) How about this D’Quan Douse fellow? (He is a defensive line transfer from Georgia Tech.) Who is Ed Woods? (He used to play defensive back at Arizona State). 

And that's not all. In total, close to half of the current Michigan State roster (57 out of 116) is made up of freshmen and transfers. So don't worry if you spend as much time reviewing the roster in the program as you do watching the game on Friday night.

But the biggest question on the minds of Spartan fans centers around the new head coach. Who is Jonathan Smith? Who are all these west coast native assistants that he brought with him? How are they going to assimilate into the newly expanded Big Ten? What type of culture and brand of football will he bring to East Lansing?

Ultimately, will fans see a marked improvement on the field and will that translate into a winning season?

Not all of those questions will be answered on Friday night for the night owls who watch the game. But with any luck the performance will be good enough to help Spartan fans forget about the struggles of the last two years. 

Coach Smith have a proven track record of building a program from virtually nothing. But can his success at Oregon State be duplicated in East Lansing? So far all signs suggest that Spartans cans should be optimistic. With a bit of luck, when former Coach Mel Tucker's name comes up in a few years, maybe fans will be able to answer somewhat honestly:

Who?

Michigan State Prediction

The Vegas line for the Michigan State season opener against Florida Atlantic opened at -11 for the Spartans and has increased to -13.5 at the time of press. The current point total line sits at a meager 47.5 points. Based on this data, my model gives Michigan State a 78% to win the first game of the Jonathan Smith era.

In this space, it is my tradition to always let the unbiased and cold microprocessor in my laptop make my official pick about the game outcome. When asked about this game, my computer sees a bit more offense and a slightly larger win that Vegas currently predict. It sees a final score of Michigan State 35, Florida Atlantic 21. 

In other words, my computers thinks that it would be wise to take the over and to bet on the Spartans to cover the spread against the Owls.

Based on the low over/under, the experts in Las Vegas appear to be in agreement with many of the preseason magazine who ranked the Spartan offense near the bottom of the Big Ten. Michigan State had a bad offense last year, so the prognosticators generally predict that it will be bad again in 2024.

But with a completely retooled quarterback room, a new tight end, solid running backs, and a wide receiver room with a lot of young talent, and a completely new staff, I believe that there is certainly a chance that Spartan offense will not just be better, but that they will be much better this year.

The offensive line continues to be a question, but if that unit can be functional, putting up 35 points or more on the Owls is an achievable goal. If that does happen, one of the biggest questions coming into the season will be answered positively. As always, I remain optimistic.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week One. This table summarizes my predicted score for each Big Ten game, the opening Vegas line, the line projected by both my algorithm and ESPN's FPI, my computer's project point total (which for Week One is simply the historically average number of points scored per game in college football), and my recommended picks against the spread and straight-up (more on this later).

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week One, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

All 18 Big Ten teams are in action this week. Six teams face FCS opponents and an additional nine Big Ten schools are facing teams from the Group of Five conferences.

Of those 15 games against lower level opponents, the Big Ten team is heavily favored 12 of those match-ups with the point spreads or projected spreads all at least 20 points. Note that while games against FCS opponents usually do not have published betting lines, it is possible to estimate point spreads using data from systems such as Bill Connelly's SP+.

Fans can expect all 12 of those Big Ten teams to win this weekend, but despite the large spreads, there is still a 24% chance that one or more of those teams will drop their home opener. Would anyone really be shocked if Florida International were to upset Indiana (-18.5) or if Weber State were to upset Washington (-22.5)?

As mentioned above, Michigan State's game against Florida Atlantic (+11) is expected to be a bit more competitive. Similarly, UCLA could get tested at Hawaii (+17). The only Big Ten team expected to really get pushed by a Group of Five opponent is Northwestern. The Wildcats (-3) are a mere field goal favorite over Miami of Ohio. 

The remaining three Big Ten teams will all be tested. Penn State (-10) is favored on the road at West Virginia. If the Nittany Lions really are a Big Ten and playoff contender, they will need to be sharp out of the gate. 

New Big Ten member USC faces LSU (-6.5) on Sunday evening in Las Vegas. Both teams are potential dark horses in their respective conference races. The loser will be classified as a more likely pretender.

The game that is expected to be the most competitive in Big Ten land is North Carolina at Minnesota (-1.5) on Thursday night. Neither team is expected to seriously compete for a conference title, but the winner will get a solid boost of confidence early in the season.

Other Notable National Action

With the exception of Ball State, every FBS team is in action in Week One. A total of 59 teams will open the season with an FCS opponent, leaving just 37 total games involving two FBS teams. Of those 37 games, there are only 18 contests with an opening spread under 14 points. As a result, there are only a handful of games that are likely to have an impact on the greater college football landscape.

Table 2 below gives a summary of the where the key action will be taking place across the country to open the college football season outside of the Big Ten.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week One, including my algorithms' projected scores.

Of the seven games listed the three contests that stick out include Clemson versus Georgia (-13) in Atlanta on Saturday at noon, Miami at Florida (+2) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m., and Notre Dame at Texas A&M (-1.5) on Saturday night. 

Clemson is not viewed as quite the national powerhouse as the Tigers were a few years back but they could certainly play themselves back into the conversation with an upset over the Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Georgia cannot afford to pick up an early loss with road games looming at Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss.

Miami has a manageable schedule (No. 47 nationally) with the road game at Gainesville grading out as the second toughest overall on the Cane's schedule. If Miami can get the win over the Gators, they would likely emerge as the clear favorite in the ACC.

Notre Dame has an even easier overall schedule (No. 60) and Texas A&M looks to be the biggest hurdle in the regular season for the Fighting Irish. If the Golden Domers can win in College Station, an at-large playoff berth would be within reach. As for the Aggies, I picked them to be a potential dark horse in the SEC race. A win over Notre Dame would signal that they are a true contender.

Picks of the Week

Every week in this space, I plan to share the most current calculations from my computer in regards to the my projected margins of victory in every game involving two FBS teams. Over the years, I have developed a method that allow me to use the result of my calculations to make educated recommendations for upset picks, picks against the spread, and point total (over/under) picks.

So if you are asking who to bet on this weekend or in the weekends to come, I am here to help.

Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week One.

This figure contains a lot of information. Each data point represents a single game where the Vegas spread is on the x-coordinate and the margin of victory predicted by my algorithm in on the y-coordinate. At first glance it is striking how much agreement there is in the two data sets, as the points generally cluster around the solid diagonal. This line represents the situation where my algorithm perfectly agrees with the opening point spread.

Any data point that lies above the solid diagonal line represents a game were my algorithm suggests that the favored team will cover the spread, and vice versa. There is also a pair of dotted diagonal lines both above and below the solid line. 

I have tracked the performance of my algorithm over a 14 year span. In that time, I determined that when the prediction of my algorithm differs from the point spread by more the 12.2 points, my algorithm can correct predict the team which will cover the spread a significant percentage of the time. 

The dotted lines represent this threshold. When a data point falls outside of these dotted line, my algorithm triggers a "recommended bet" for that game. Over the past seven years, this method has correctly picked the winner against the spread (ATS) 53.4% of the time (298-260). 

Figure 1 also features a vertical red line on the left side of the figure corresponding to a spread of zero. Any data point that falls to the left of that line indicates a game where my algorithm predicts an upset relative to the opening spread. Historically, my algorithm correctly predicts an upset 42.8% of the time, which is notably better than a random number generator experiment that I ran several years ago (36%).

As a comparison, I conduct the same analysis using data from ESPN's FPI. Figure 2 below is the result of this analysis for Week One.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week One.

My analysis of FPI data over a similar time period led to the conclusion that a deviation of only 7.25 points between the FPI and the Vegas spread is enough to trigger a recommended bet. So Figure 1 and Figure 2 can be interpreted the same way, but here the dotted lines are close to the central, solid diagonal line.

While Figures 1 and 2 give a nice visual summary of the full week, it is difficult to spot all of the recommended bets in both figure. So, I will summarize those in the table below, starting with the upset picks In Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week One.

In total, the two algorithms predict a total of four upset in Week One, including three of the marquee games listed above. Together the computers like Notre Dame, Florida, and North Carolina to win in upset fashion.

Note that out of 37 total games in Week One involving FBS teams, a simulation of the week predicts that 6.7 plus-or-minus 2.1 upsets are most likely overall.

Table 4 below summarizes the recommended bets ATS for Week One, based on Figures 1 and 2.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week One. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

None of the games on the schedule triggered a recommended wager against the spread (ATS) from my computer, but my analysis of the FPI data results in seven suggestions for Week One. They are listed in order of confidence, which is essentially the average distance in Figures 1 and 2 between the data point for the game and the central diagonal line.

Basically, the FPI likes several underdogs to cover large spreads this week, including Boston College (+22), Akron (+50.5), and Georgia St (+20).

Finally, Table 5 below provides a set of recommended bets against the point totals for Week One.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week One. Note that the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

This is only the third year where I have tracked over/under data and so far the results have been mixed. My computer was well over .500 for these picks in 2022, especially for my higher confidence "locks." But the method did very poorly in 2023 and the jury is still out. I will continue to give my computer's picks this year, and we will see how they perform.

That is all the advice that I have for you this week. Until next time, enjoy the games.

Social Media Copy

Week One is finally here and it's time for a weekly dose of occasionally wise Bad Betting Advice from Dr. Green and White (@PaulFanson). Do you have questions about the new era of Spartan football? Such as, 'who are all these new guys?' Yeah, we do too.